Börsipäev 4. veebruar
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Aasia turud on reedese USA tugevuse järel kenasti plussis - Jaapani Nikkei on tõusnud +2.4%, Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.1%, Hiina Shanghai A indeks +7.1% ja B indeks +6.7%, Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +3.9% jne.
USA eelturg on hetkel aga kerges miinuses ning futuurid on S&P500-l ära puudutanud vastupanutaseme 1400 punkti juures ning sealt tasapisi allapoole libisenud.
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Huvitav päev saab tulema. Yahoo! ajab oma hinda üles. Juhtkond tahab uuesti alustada läbirääkimisi Google'iga. Aasia kõvas plussis, Usas futuurid miinuses.
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Googl`e advokaadid juba sebivad. Kui konkurentsiamet heaks ei kiida, tõmmatakse ostulootjatel kott pähe.
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Yahoo: Microsoft proposal is one of many options
Yahoo: no integration process underway
Yahoo: no decisions have been made about Microsoft proposal -
On mõni adekvaatne põhjus ka, miks konkurentsiamet diili heaks ei peaks kiitma?
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Yahoo ülevõtmine Microsofti poolt ei tohiks minu arvates probleeme konkurentsiametiga tekitada - kui (väga suur 'kui') Google peaks aga tegema konkureeriva pakkumise Yahoole, siis seal võib aga küll konkurentsiametiga probleeme tulla liiga suure turuosa pärast.
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Täna kell 17.00 Eesti aja järgi teatatakse tehaste detsembrikuu tellimuste muutus. Konsensusootus on peale eelmise kuu +1.5%list tõusu täna +2.0%. Kui number tuleb oodatust väiksem, omaks see negatiivset mõju. Mäletatavasti kestvuskaubad üllatasid +5.2%lise näiduga.
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Nagu hommikul ütlesin, oli Aasia väga toredalt plussis, kuid USA on päeva alustamas etevaatlikult - futuurid -0.2%.
Saksamaa DAX +1.04%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.18%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.13%
Hispaania IBEX +0.59%
Venemaa MICEX +2.38%
Poola WIG +0.71%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.69%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.77%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +8.13%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +7.94%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +4.21%
Tai Set -0.15%
India Sensex +2.29%
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Traders May Try to Defy the TA Rulebook
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/4/2008 8:11 AM EST
"The young man knows the rules but the old man knows the exceptions."
-- Oliver Wendell Holmes
One of the unusual aspects of the market action in 2007 was the tendency of the market to recover in a "V"-shaped manner. After most pullbacks, the market recovered in almost a straight line with no retests or other technical action that is usually associated with the bottoming process.
In August 2007, we had the most dramatic example of a "V"-shaped recovery when we bounced straight back up following the first major scare over subprime losses and made a new high about 60 days later. When the market started to bounce, there was no looking back.
After the big recovery in the indices last week, the question we have to ponder this morning is whether conditions are ripe for a similar recovery. Can this market go straight back up just like it did in September and October of 2007?
Standard technical analysis tells us that markets don't bounce straight back up after they have broken down the way this one did in January. There are a lot of psychological reasons supporting this belief. The foremost is that investors who were caught in the meltdown will be happy to escape as they recoup unrealized losses and can break even. After going through the pain of a large loss, many will be looking to move to the sidelines when they can do so without a large loss. That is known as overhead resistance, and it is what usually prevents stocks from going back up in a straight line.
The dilemma for investors is that the rules of technical analysis are not infallible. Although this market appears to be undergoing a classic bear market bounce, there is no guarantee that the market won't shrug off its woes and bounce straight back up like it did back in August through October.
What makes this dilemma even more difficult is that there are so many folks who are rooting for a complete and total recovery in the market. The inclination of most market players is to be optimistic and to hope that the worst is over. We seek out reasons to support our optimism, and a couple days like we had last week are all it takes to convince us that it is clear sailing ahead.
My approach is to give the benefit of the doubt to the rules of technical analysis. While we have to realize that there are always exceptions, that doesn't mean we should ignore the odds. At this point, the odds still favor the proposition that the market will roll over rather than go straight up.
While we want to respect technical analysis, we also want to be flexible and open-minded. If there is a bounce taking place, we might as well participate and try to make some money while we can. Another rule of technical analysis is that bear market bounces tend to be big and powerful, and that makes them very tradeable.
If we play the bounces but respect the TA rulebook, that means we keep a very short-term time frame and are mentally prepared to run for safety at the first signs that the recovery is faltering. This is a balancing act, but it makes more sense than blindly believing that the market is going to act in an exceptional manner.
Indications are for a fairly flat open. There isn't much news on the wires this morning, but overseas markets are perky, and we have some economic data coming up. The bulls are feeling pretty good at the moment, but keep an eye out for too much complacency.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PARL +3.4%... M&A news: SGTL +59.8% (to be acquired by Freescale for $3.00 per share)... Select Chinese names trading higher with strength in overseas trading: LFC +6.7%, ACH +6.2%, SNP +5.8%, SEED +4.5%, PTR +3.5%... Other news: GU +18.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney, RNWK +10.9% (YHOO switching music unlimited service to Rhapsody owned by RNWK), COIN +7.7% (still checking), APWR +5.6% (continues upward momentum from Friday's 25% surge), OMRI +4.3% (announced that Ana Stancic has, by mutual agreement with co, resigned as Executive Vice President and CFO), YGE +3.2% (announces 2008 guidance for photovoltaic module shipments and attainment of significant operating milestone), CAO +1.6% (confirmed that it has received an unsolicited proposal from ORLY to acquire all of the outstanding shares), DIS +1.4% (signs Chief Executive Officer Robert A. Iger to a new five year contract)... Analyst upgrades: PALM +8.0% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), DYN +6.6% (upgraded to Buy at Calyon, also mentioned positively in Barron's), SWC +4.0% (added to Focus List at JPMorgan), EPIC +3.4% (upgraded to Buy at Lazard), KSS +2.8% (hearing upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm), PTEN +2.4% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), GW +2.3% (upgraded to Neutral at Jefferies)
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: DTG -24.7%, RYAAY -12.7%, MSTR -8.9%, CLX -4.9%, BEAV -4.4%, NTE -3.2%, WEN -2.7%, TYL -2.4%, ADM -1.4%... Other news: UBS -4.3% (U.S. targets UBS in probe - WSJ), MBI -4.0% (still checking for anything new), ASML -3.7% (still checking), ESLR -2.9% (files for a 20 mln share common stock secondary offering)... Analyst downgrades: SGMS -8.1% (downgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), PIR -6.2% (downgraded to Underperform at Morgan Keegan), LLNW -6.2% (downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies), CWTR -3.6% (downgraded to Underweight at Thomas Weisel), VDSI -3.3% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), CHRS -2.9% (downgraded to Mkt Weight at Thomas Weisel), COF -2.4% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), DFS -2.3% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), AXP -2.2% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), ASF -2.2% (downgraded to Equal Weight at First Analysis), -
Faber on CNBC discusses potential downgrade of ABK and MBI; notes nothing has happened related to a possible bailout, saying a potential downgrade gets closer as time goes by...
Täiesti nõus... ja usun, et võime neid downgrade võlakirja kindlustajatele veel näha ka. -
Tehaste tellimused pisut alla ootuste.
Factory Orders +2.3% vs +2.5% consensus -
Kui hommikul sai räägitud võimalikest konkurentsiameti tõketest MSFT ja YHOO ühinemisele, siis Briefingust jookseb läbi tekst, mis lubab, et Euroopa Konkurentsiamet on igaljuhul asja karmi pilguga vaatamas.
European competition authorities are expected to take a harsh line on Microsoft's bid for Yahoo and may ultimately block any merger
