Börsipäev 6. veebruar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Australia ASX 100 -149.30 -3.14% 4,539.60 2/6 4:32pm
Australia ASX All Ords -174.50 -2.95% 5,677.60 2/6 4:32pm
Australia ASX Mid-cap 50 -191.00 -3.14% 5,778.80 2/6 4:32pm
Hong Kong Hang Seng -1,339.24 -5.35% 23,469.46 2/6 1:37pm
Hong Kong HSCC Red Chip -295.43 -5.32% 5,259.54 2/6 1:15pm
Japan Nikkei 225 -559.44 -4.07% 13,186.06 2/6 12:45pm -
Aasia on täna tõesti väga punane ja eilse nõrga USA teeninduse ISM indeksi nii suure kukkumise ja aktsiaturu nõrkuse järel pole see muidugi enam üllatus. Kuid suured liikumised ja volatiilsus on jätkuvalt teemaks.
USA futuurid varahommikul eilse sulgumishinna juures. -
Täna kell 15.30 Eesti aja järgi (loodame, et seekord meid kellaajaga ei üllatata) teatatakse USA 4. kvartali esialgne tootlikkuse näitaja. 3. kvartalis kasvas see +6.3%, aasta viimaselt kvartalilt oodatakse tõusu +0.5%. Tööjõu kulud ja tootlikkus on otseselt seotud inflatsiooniga, millel Fed ka hoolimata oma intressimäärade langetamise poliitikast samuti silma peal hoiab.
Graafik Briefingust:
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Tony Crescenzi toob RealMoney's välja, et kauplemine Föderaalreservi futuuridega indikeerib tänaseks, et 18. märtsi Föderaalreservi kohtumisel langetatakse intressimäärasid 50 baasipunkti võrra juba 100%lise tõenäosusega ning 50%-lise tõenäosusega oodatakse 25 baasipunktilist langetamist enne korralist kohtumist. Minu arust kiputakse juba aplaks minema nende kärbete ootustega.
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Jah, öeldakse, et lootus on lollide lohutus. Kipun arvama, et lootjatele isegi hästi kui Fed 0,25% langetaks. Viimase kahe nädalaga juba 1,25 alla lastud. Päris räige seegi.
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selles tänases ÄP lühikommentaaris viitasin ma MS Draaisma karuturu ralli prognoosile, see oli kommentaarist maha katkutud. Oleks iseenesest päris positiivne variant, kui muidu mitmekuine "vale ralli" ja põhjade testimine nüüd praktiliselt mõne nädala sisse ära mahuks.
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Niisiis toimub karutururalli uute põhjade testimisega. :)
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Citi on väljas negatiivse calliga Regional Financiali (RF) suhtes, mis koos kolme muu regionaalpangaga avaldas oma tulemused 22. jaanuaril. Tookord juba mainisin, et tulemustest midagi head ei paista - laenukahjud suurenevad, NIM ja kasum vähenevad. RF jäi tookord alla ka oma kasumiootusele, kuid positiivse poole pealt suudeti erinevalt NCC-st vähemalt plussis lõpetada.
Mäletatavasti oli tegu ka päevaga, kus Fed erakorraliselt intressimäärasid kärpis ning regionaalpangad on sellest ajast tugevasti põrganud. RF on põhjast tõusnud ca 30% ning Citi meelest ei ole see fundamentaalselt õigustatud:
We are downgrading RF due to weak core fundamentals; our 2008 EPS estimate is 7% below consensus. This reflects our view that RF faces mounting credit costs with little ability to offset this with organic revenue growth or higher than expected cost saves.
Seega antakse müügisoovitus ja hinnasihiks $21.
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Lisaks on Bear Stearns langetanud General Motorsi (GM) ja Fordi (F) soovitusi, sest renewed concerns that both the propensity and ability of the automotive consumer to purchase vehicles is deteriorating at an accelerating rate.
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Citigroup on avaldanud huvitava kommentaari Yahoo-Microsofti tehingu osas, kus tuuakse välja viis võimalikku stsenaariumit ja üritatakse hinnata iga stsenaariumi realiseerumise tõenäosust:
Stsenaarium #1: Yahoo võtab vastu pakkumise praeguse hinnaga ehk $31 aktsia kohta. Tõenäosuseks pakutakse 20%, sest pakutav 63%-line preemia on atraktiivne ja alternatiivsete lahenduste hulk on piiratud.
Stsenaarium #2: Yahoo lükkab pakkumise tagasi. Seejärel tuleb Microsoft välja kõrgema pakkumisega, mis võetakse vastu. Citigroupi hinnangul on tehing Microsofti poolt tark samm ja loob $1 miljardi väärtuses sünergiaid. Arvestades selle ülevõtmise strateegilist tähtsust Microsofti jaoks, siis nad võiksid olla valmis ka kõrgemat hinda maksma. Citi analüüsimeeskonna arvates on just see stsenaarium kõige reaalsem ja saab 40%-lise tõenäosuse.
Stsenaarium #3: Konkureeriv pakkumine kolmanda firma poolt, mis võidab. $45 miljardine hinnasilt ja Yahoo strateegiline väärtus Microsoftile annavad sellele stsenaariumile vaid 5%-lise tõenäosuse.
Stsenaarium #4: Tehing blokeeritakse konkurentsiameti poolt. Microsoft ja Yahoo ühinenult moodustaks 30%-lise turuosa USA otsinguturust (võrdluseks Google’i turuosa on 58%), rahvusvaheliselt on see näitaja umbes 16%. Seega ei tohiks regulatsioonidega probleeme tekkida ja tõenäosuseks hinnatakse 10%.
Stsenaarium #5: Yahoo hakkab otsinguteenust sisse ostma Google’lt. Juhul kui Yahoo juhatus lükkab pakkumise tagasi, nõuavad aktsionärid alternatiivset väärtust loovat strateegiat, et tasakaalustada Microsofti pakkumist. Huvitavaks lahenduseks oleks otsinguteenuse outsourcing Google’le, läbi mille suudaks Yahoo oluliselt oma rahavoogu parandada. Citigroup on selle lahenduse suhtes teistest analüütikustest selgelt optimistlikum ja hindab selle stsenaariumi realiseerimise tõenäosuseks 25%.
Seega ollakse positiivsed Yahoo-Microsofti tehingu suhtes ja hinnatakse selle toimumise tõenäosuseks (praeguse või kõrgema hinnaga) 60%. Hinnasiht tõstetakse $31-ni ehk praeguse pakkumise hinnale. -
Panin ka need stsenaariumid Excelisse, võtsin paberi ja kirjutasin suletud silmadega sinna ühe numbri. Tegin silmad lahti ja avastasin, et sain teise stsenaariumi tõenäosuseks Citi pakutust rohkem. Turg on üsna ühel meelel, et MSFT oleks vajadusel nõus ka hinda suurendama, seega pole Yahool mingit probleemi esialgne pakkumine tagasi lükata. Eriti arvestades asjaolu, et ega Yang väga müüa soovigi.
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Q4 Nonfarm Productivity 1.8% vs +0.5% consensus, prior revised to +6.0% from +6.3%
Q4 Unit Labor Costs 2.1% vs 3.5% consensus -
U.S. unit labor costs up 3.1% in 2007 vs 2.9% in 2006
U.S. productivity up 1.6% in 2007vs 1.0% in 2006
U.S. Q3 productivity revised to up 6.0% from 6.3%
U.S. Q4 hours worked down 1.5%, biggest drop since Q1 '03
U.S. Q4 unit labor cost up 2.1% vs 3.5 % expected
US. Q4 productivity up 1.8% vs. 0.8% expected
U.S. Q4 productivity up 1.8% vs 6.0% rise in Q3
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Eile õhtul oma tulemused avaldanud JDS Uniphase (JDSU) jäi küll eelmise aasta kasumile alla, kuid viimasest kvartalikahjumist on suudetud välja ronida, ühtlasi ületati ka analüütikute ootusi. Eelturul kaubeldakse 23% plussis ning tõenäoliselt võib allamüüdud aktsia siit veel edasi lennata. Soovitusi on tõstnud mitu analüüsimaja, teiste seas Raymond James, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital ja Roth.
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Saksamaa DAX +0.70%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.79%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.21%
Hispaania IBEX +1.75%
Venemaa MICEX -0.49%
Poola WIG -0.86%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -4.70%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -5.40%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A börsid suletud
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A börsid suletud
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq N/A börsid suletud
Tai Set -1.62%
India Sensex -2.81%
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A Real Uptrend Will Give You Time to Get In
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/6/2008 8:22 AM EST
A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding.
-- Marshall McLuhan
The stock market tends to turn people into psychics and fortunetellers. They spend so much time gazing into their crystal balls that they often ignore what is happening today. Rather than embrace what is happening now, they want to dismiss it as they focus on their entrenched point of view and try to predict the future.
For most investors, the better approach to the market is to avoid the temptation to anticipate and to focus primarily on dealing with the current action. If the market is trending in one direction, then assume it will continue to do so rather than try to figure out when things may change.
One of the most important things to remember about the stock market is that trends have a tendency to persist much longer than seems rational. When the market goes up, it usually goes up further than we think it will; when it corrects, it has a tendency to do so more severely than we feel is reasonable.
Unfortunately, Wall Street is obsessed with identifying turning points, especially when the market is downtrending. What the pundits and analysts want to talk about is when the current trend will end and what we should do in anticipation of that. The timing is invariably wrong, and those who listen find themselves fighting a trending market.
My advice is simple: Defer to what is happening in front of you and respect the power of trends. Sure, you may want to try to play short-term bounces and countertrend rallies when things become oversold, but we can't forget that major changes in trend take time to develop and will give us plenty of time to join the party and profit if they really are meaningful.
There are going to be lots of countertrend moves in a trending market that people will embrace as major turning points. That premature embrace of a change in trend is what causes so many difficulties for most investors. Last week, there was tremendous anxiety over the possibility that the worst was over and that we might not be fully invested at the exact bottom. The rush to declare that the bottom was in caused tremendous pain over the last couple of days.
Be patient and respect the trend. If you invest in the short term, look for the bounces but don't let the market pundits push you to try to predict exact turning points.
We have a little bit of a bounce developing this morning following a few good earnings reports from the likes of Disney (DIS ) and JDS Uniphase (JDSU). There isn't much news out there, and the bulls are badly in need of some positive catalysts right now. We'll see if the early strength can hold, but we'd probably be better off if we open weak rather than attempt an immediate reversal this morning.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MFLX +51.1%, PNSN +25.3%, TGAL +24.2%, JDSU +20.1% (also upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital and upgraded to Strong Buy at Raymond James), IIG +15.5%, LDSH +12.4%, IOM +8.8%, SYNP +8.7%, MPWR +8.1% (also announces $25 million stock repurchase program), TMO +7.5%, INSP +7.4%, QSII +6.3%, AIRV +6.3%, GHDX +5.7% (upgraded to Buy at Cantor Fitzgerald), DIS +5.7%, SGIC +4.9%, IVGN +4.8% (also Invitrogen, Agilent Technologies settle multiple patent litigations), MGAM +4.6%, CNU +4.4%, MNC +4.2%, MKTX +3.3%, LF +3.2%, TMRK +3.1%, RL +2.7%, NBR +2.5%, AMX +2.3%, ATMI +2.1%, LOOK +2.0%, ADVS +2.0%, BOBE +1.9%, OTTR +1.6%, EQR +1.3%, RSG +1.2%... M&A news: OFI +54.8% (announces former director expresses interest in acquiring co with proposed price of $4.40/share), RTP +0.8% (BHP makes new bid, offers 3.4 shares for each RTP share)... Other news: ORCT +23.7% (signs a long term agreement with Media Broadcast GmbH for Deutsche Telekom's customer in Germany), HH +8.8% (exploring various strategic alternatives ), YGE +5.0% (signs sales contract with Recurrent Energy), MICC +4.9% (still checking), SIRF +3.4% (modestly rebounding after yesterday's decline following earnings/guidance), RIO +2.7% (up in sympathy with RTP, Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), SGMS +2.3% (signs instant ticket printing contract with the China Sports Lottery), WB +1.3% (prices preferred stock offering of $3.5 bln of tier 1 capital; dividend of 7.98%)... Analyst upgrades: PER +6.5% (upgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), TMA +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), IRM +2.5% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), ADBE +2.2% (upgraded to Buy at Kaufman), ADVS +2.0% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: FORM -24.7% (also downgraded to Neutral at Broadpoint and downgraded to Neutral at Piper), TZOO -18.0%, USNA -14.8%, NSR -13.3% (also downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Bear Stearns), RVBD -10.8% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham, tgt cut to $18 at Jefferies and removed from Alpha List at Piper Jaffray), RSYS -10.4% (also announces proposed $50 mln offering of convertible senior notes due 2013 and downgraded to Hold at Cantor Fitzgerald), MANH -8.8%, DBTK -8.4%, BBBB -8.2%, PLNR -6.5%, CAKE -6.1% (also downgraded to Neutral at FTN Midwest), QSFT -6.0% (also downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), RATE -6.0%, NFP -5.6% (also downgraded to Neutral at BofA), MM -5.5%, LOOP -5.1%, XL -4.7%, HAR -4.2% (also downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), ALVR -3.3%, IACI -3.3%, WIRE -2.1%, DBD -1.7%, OXM -1.6%, THQI -1.3%... Select European financials showing weakness: CS -2.6% (downgraded by ABN Amro), UBS -2.3%, HBC -1.2% (trading lower on speculation may make bid for Societe Generale)... Other news: DISK -21.9% (terminates merger agreement with BTP Acquisition Company and demands prompt payment of $4.2 mln business interruption fee), IDMI -15.5% (giving back some of yesterday's huge gains), QI -5.8% (announces proposed convertible bonds offering), TS -4.0% (still checking), PTR -2.5% (still checking), ATK -2.2% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: RF -3.1% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), IHP -2.6% (downgraded to Underperform at Raymond James), F -2.5% (downgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), PCLN -1.7% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), GM -1.4% (downgraded to Underperform at Bear Sterns). -
Credit Suisse downgraded to Sell from Hold at ABN Amro
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Fed's Lacker says right now we are concerned about growth, seeing signs the consumer is pulling back; sees U.S. economic growth at about 0.5% over 1H08
Lacker says chances of recession have increased, but most likely will be averted
Inflation still a concern, means can't cut rates as much as could otherwise. Says will face problems later in the year if inflation doesn't moderate
Esimese poolaasta majanduskasvu suhtes optimistid..., samas prognoosivad enamik panku veel kasvu. -
Lacker on üldiselt olnud karmi käega keskpankur - ehk väiksemate intressilangetamiste poolt. Need sõnad siin on aga üpriski turusõbralikud.
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Carl Icahn teatab tänase börsijärgse failinguga, et on oma osalust Motorolas suurendanud 5%ni. Igati positiivne uudis.
