Börsipäev 7. veebruar
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Eilne kauplemispäev lõpetati taaskord põhjade juures ning järelturul tuli langusele veelgi lisa. Põhjuseks Cisco(CSCO) ettevaatlikud kommentaarid tuleviku osas (3. kvartali kasvuprognoos alla ootuste), mis andis eriti langushoogu juurde tehnoloogiasektorile. S&P500 futuurid varahommikul -0.4%, tehnoloogiasektori omad -1.2%.
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Esiteks, täna oodatakse siis intressimäära kärbet Inglismaa Keskpangalt, mis langetaks baasintressis 5.50% pealt 5.25% peale. Korra on 6. detsembri miitingul juba intresse 25 baasipunkti kärbitud ning üldiselt usutakse, et jaheneva majanduskeskkonna tingimustes on kärpimist täna samas tempos jätkatamas. 50 punktilise kärpe tõenäosuseks hinnatakse ca 10%.
Teiseks, täna otsustab ka Euroopa Keskpank intressimäära poliitika osas ning päris huvitav saab olema kuulata Trichet kommentaare olukorrale majanduses ning väljavaateid edasise osas. Kuigi Trichet ise on püüdnud ootusi leebema monetaarpoliitika osas igati jahutada, oodatakse ikkagi, et euro-ala intressimäär langeb aasta lõpuks kuni 75 baasipunkti ehk 3.25% peale. Tunni ajaline konverents Euroopa intressimäärade kohta algab Eesti aja järgi kell 15.30 ning kuulata saab seda siit.
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STOCKHOLM, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Swedish bank SEB
posted a fourth-quarter operating profit well above market consensus on Thursday as high customer activity offset turbulent markets.
Operating profit was 4.58 billion Swedish crowns ($709 million) versus a mean forecast of 3.84 billion in a Reuters poll and 4.12 billion a year ago.
Total revenues in the fourth quarter were 10.04 billion crowns against an expected 9.99 billion, while costs were 5.93 billion against a forecast 5.82 billion.
The bank saw gains on financial items at fair value, which includes bonds its trading and liquidity portolios, of 420 million crowns versus a forecast loss of 23 million and against 1.12 billion crowns in the fourth quarter last year.
VD: üks neist õnnetutest pankadest, kus ma olen üritanud viimasel ajal volatiilsust müüa. Kuna see on toimunud puttide müügi vormis, siis on osutunud olevat suhtkoht äkiline tegevus. :-) -
Väärtpaberite kindlustaja MBIA (MBI) on esialgu plaanitud $500 miljoni asemel müümas $750 miljoni väärtuses aktsiateks konverteeritavaid võlakirju, põhjuseks soov säilitada oma krediidireiting. Teade tuleb pärast Fitchi teisipäevast avaldust, et MBIA reitingut võidakse lähiajal langetada. Situatsioon on iseenesest huvitav, erinevatest kohtadest kumab läbi, et langetamine suure tõenäosusega ka toimub. Samas peaks just MBIA olema ettevõte, kes viimasena langeb. Ehk kui üldse kellegi AAA püsima jääb, on see tõenäoliselt MBIA oma.
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Deutsche Bank teatas täna oma 4. kvartali tulemused. Võrreldes eelmise perioodi kvartaliga langes kasum 48% - põhjuseks kõrgem maksumäär, suuremad krediidikahjumi provisjonid ning investeerimispanganduse kiiresti kasvanud kulud. Positiivse uudise valmistasid aga mahakirjutamised, mis on võrreldes kolmanda kvartali €603 miljonilise hiidnumbri pealt järsku kukkunud €50 miljoni peale. Netokasum €953 miljonit ületas oodatud €887 miljonit ning ka müügitulu €6.47 miljardit oli suurem kui oodatud €6.41 miljardit. samuti ollakse dividende suurendamas €4 pealt €4.50 peale. Frankfurdi börsil on Deutsche aktsia ca 3% plusspoolel.
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BOE langetas siis intressid ära nagu oodatud.
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Wal-Marti(WMT) jaanuarikuu võrreldavate poodide müük kasvas +0.5% - seda on tublisti alla ootuste, kuid selline nadi kasv on taaskord muresid kinnitav. Wal-Mart suutis viimastel kuudel oma konkurentide eest ära rebida ja kliente poodidesse meelitada tänu allahindlustele, kuid tundub, et sel on olnud üksnes ajutine efekt.
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Senate Stimulus Bill fails to advance - WSJ
WSJ reports Senate Democrats' plan to jump-start the economy failed to clear a hurdle, leaving in limbo the effort to provide rebate checks to mlns of people and tax breaks to businesses. Supporters of the Senate bill fell one vote short of the 60 needed to advance it, as most Republicans stuck together to oppose a plan for rebate checks of at least $500 to an estimated 135 mln households in this election year. Eight Republicans broke with their leadership and supported the bill, including four who are up for re-election. Senators still hope to send an economic-stimulus bill to President Bush by midmonth, though last night's vote increases the chances the Senate will have to move closer to a House-passed package to meet that goal. A spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) said the senator "is going to give Republicans another chance to reconsider their vote." -
Ning Euroopa Keskpank jättis oma intressid 4.0% peal muutmata.
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Trichet ütleb, et tänane otsus võeti vastu ühehäälselt (nagu ikka), kuid küsimusele vastates ütleb, et eraldi keegi intresse langetada ega tõsta ei soovinud seekord. Kui keegi veel mäletab, siis eelmisel korral öeldi, et laual on üksnes kaks varianti - kas jätta samaks või neid tõsta ja tookord jäeti intressid samaks. Päris huvitav sõnademäng, kuid sellest kommentaarist võiks justkui järeldada, et ECB on tasapisi oma seisukohta korrigeerimas intresside tõstmise osas. Loodan, et ei näe tonti seal, kus seda ei ole.
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USA futuurid on küll põhjadest pisut kosunud, kuid ikkagi veel selgelt ca 1% miinus avanemas.
Saksamaa DAX -2.06%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.99%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -2.12%
Hispaania IBEX -1.14%
Venemaa MICEX -3.50%
Poola WIG -2.39%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.82%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng N/A börsid suletud
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A börsid suletud
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A börsid suletud
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq N/A börsid suletud
Tai Set -0.38%
India Sensex -3.38%
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Respect the Downtrend, but Look for a Bounce
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/7/2008 7:43 AM EST
I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.
-- Everett M. Dirksen
After the poor action yesterday, the Nasdaq is now down more than 20% from its October high, which is the official definition of a bear market. The senior indices still have a ways to go to reach those depths, but the action there is poor enough that definitions are just a secondary consideration.
I've been repeatedly writing lately that the market is in a downtrend and that we should respect that fact and not engage in the Wall Street sport of calling turning points. The serial bottom-callers have been with us all year, and they will continue to pop up daily until they eventually get it right. In the interim, they will bury themselves in a deep, dark hole, but the calls for a major turning point will be issued boldly and with confidence simply because we have already fallen quite a bit.
Markets in downtrends can go much lower than you think, but we should be flexible enough to embrace the inevitable bounces that will occur. We had a decent one last week and we are getting hit hard enough again that a reflexive bounce is probably going to occur soon.
Whether you play a bounce or not depends on your style and time frames. For many investors, it is better to simply ignore them and to try not to be influenced by the inevitable declarations that the worst is finally over and it is clear sailing ahead.
Keep in mind that an approach to the market that respects the downtrend and doesn't try to call the bottom means that you are not going to be fully invested at the low. You are going to miss the beginning of the new uptrend that finally does emerge. Hopefully, you will be far ahead of the pack because you won't have all the losses from buying too early, but it can still be a bit frustrating when there finally is some upside action and the bulls act like they have huge profits when the truth is that they aren't close to being back to even.
This market has been getting pounded hard enough that I'm starting to look for some sort of bounce to develop soon. By no means do I think we are close to a major turning point, but if you have a shorter-term time frame, you need to be opportunistic and take advantage of countertrend rallies when you can.
We have another weak open on the way as Cisco's (CSCO) earnings warning weighs on the market and worry grows over what is expected to be a very poor retail sales report.
I'm going to be posting sporadically today and tomorrow as I'll be at the World Money Show in Orlando, Fla. I will be speaking on "Why Being a Small Investor is Your Greatest Advantage" today at 6 p.m. Please come by and say hello if you are attending.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: UTI +13.5% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), DSCM +6.6%, ENS +6.4%, KNL +6.3%, MKSI +6.2%, FNSR +5.5%, LVLT +5.1%, POWI +5.0% (acquires Potentia Semiconductor for $5.5 mln), WMS +4.7%, PPDI +4.6%, AKAM +4.3%, ANDE +4.1%, UNCA +4.0%, ELNK +3.7%, DHX +3.7%, HOTT +2.8%, CCI +2.8%, URBN +2.5%, TLEO +2.5%, NSIT +2.3%, ATRM +2.3%, NAVR +2.2%, EGOV +2.1%, FRED +2.0%, CREL +2.0%, SRCL +2.0%, COST +2.0%, HUBG +1.9%, JKHY +1.5%, AEO +1.4%, MET +1.2%, CTRN +1.1%... Select airlines showing strength following WSJ article regarding potential mergers: NWA +3.2%, DAL +3.3%, CAL +2.5%... Other news: MBI +7.2% (to issue $750 million in common stock instilling some confidence co will retain its AAA rating and provides updated information on 2007 financial results), CWTR +5.4% (Chairman Dennis Pence reports a 17.2% stake), IDIX +5.3% (reported data for IDX899 that demonstrates rapid and profound inhibition of HIV replication in a Phase I/II Clinical Trial), FTE +5.0% (France says no plans to sell France Telecom shares - Bloomberg.com), AMKR +4.1% (announces departure of Chief Operating Officer), CME +3.0% (rebounds after yesterday's sharp decline, also WSJ article discusses yesterday's DOJ letter & CFTC response)
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance/same store sales: OESX -26.2%, EXBD -21.8%, WVCM -16.6%, IFX -16.0%, DTLK -11.9%, SCSS -11.9% (also downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Morgan Keegan), BG -9.0%, UFPI -8.6%, JOSB -8.1%, ARQL -8.0%, CSCO -8.0% (also downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan and downgraded to Neutral at Baird), GSK -7.7%, AG -6.8%, DO -5.7%, EDS -5.7%, PRU -5.0%, AWR -4.6%, SYT -4.1%, WMT -4.0%, JWN -3.7%, FISV -2.7%, SFLY -2.5%, SUN -1.6%, ESS -1.4%, RACK -1.1%... Select tech stocks showing weakness with CSCO reporting: ALTR -5.8%, FFIV -5.2%, XLNX -4.6%, NETL -4.3%, CIEN -3.9%, JDSU -3.1%, BIDU -2.6%, AAPL -2.5%, RIMM -2.4%, BRCM -2.3%, INTC -2.2%, DELL -1.9%... Select solar stocks showing weakness following DJ story that shipments slowed by winter storm in China: AKNS -5.1%, TSL -4.9%, SOLF -4.4%, LDK -4.1%, STP -3.2%, SPWR -2.6%, CSIQ -2.3%, JASO -1.8%... Other news: IDMI -8.1% (giving back some of Tuesday's huge gains), BIOD -4.4% (prices a 3.81 mln share common stock secondary offering at $154.50/share), MTW -2.5% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: BT -6.0% (downgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), ESLT -3.7% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), ARUN -2.3% (downgraded to Average at Caris), WMG -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill), RL -1.9% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup). -
Ei midagi uut majade turul (nagu ikka)
Pending Home Sales m/m -1.5% vs -1.0% consensus -
Võlakirjade kindlustajate probleemiga tegeletakse väga tõsiselt. Suurepärane.
Treasury's Steel says Treasury monitoring Bond Insurer situation; says some "good signs" of private sector efforts to recapitalize bond insurers -
Fed Fisher sees 3% rate 'where we should be'; Sees couple quarters growth under 1%
