Börsipäev 11. veebruar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Financial Times vahendab, et G7 riikide rahandusministrite ühise arvamuse kohaselt võivad subprime-laenudega seotud kahjud küündida kuni $400 miljardini, mis tähendaks veelgi suuremaid varade mahakirjutamisi. On ju tänaseks raporteeritud ainult $120 miljardi ulatuses laenude kuludesse kandmisest ning näiteks Fed ei ootagi summa jõudmist üle $150 miljardi.
Aga kus järgmised kahjud pinnale võiksid ujuda, seda täpselt ei tea:
But G7 finance ministers admitted that it remained unclear where much of this subprime pain would eventually emerge, not least because the path of the credit crunch was still uncertain.
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Põhimõtteliselt võib juba täie kindlusega väita, et kõrglahutusega DVD-de formaatidest jääb elama ainult blue-ray. Netflix (NFLX) avalikustas täna, et edaspidi võetakse müüki ainult selle formaadi toodangut. Tulevikku silmas pidades on tegemist positiivse uudisega Sigmale (SIGM), kuna Sony arendatud formaat põhineb Sigma kiipidel.
Lisaks Sonyle kasutavad Sigma kiipe veel Panasonic, Samsung, Pioneer ning detsembri lõpus lisandus nimekirja Sharp. Kuigi Sigma toodab protsessoreid ka HD DVD mängijatele, on märgatavalt kasulikum blue-ray esilekerkimine, sest ettevõte hoiab segmendis 75%-list turuosa.
Viimase kuu jooksul on tulnud mitu teadet blue-rayle üle läinud filmistuudiost või DVD mängijate valmistajast. Näiteks Warner Bros. teatas 4. jaanuaril, et hakkab tulevikus filme tootma ainult blue-ray formaadis, liitudes selliste tegijatega nagu Walt Disney, Sony, Fox, MGM, Lionsgate ja Twentieth Century Fox.
Blue-rayd on nimetatud järgmise generatsiooni formaadiks, sest tavalise DVD-ga võrreldes mahutab see viis korda enam kõrge resolutsiooniga filmi. Siiani on formaadi arengut tagasi hoidnud riistvara kõrged hinnad, kuid tehnoloogia arenedes on oodata nende langust.
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Hasbro (HAS) avaldas neljanda kvartali tulemused ning USA 22%-lise kasumilanguse tegi tasa müügi suurenemine rahvusvahelistel turgudel, kus tegevuskasum kasvas 40%. Analüütikute EPSi löödi $0.03 võrra, tugeva panuse andis Transformerite müük. Neljas kvartal oli tõesti tugev, CC on käimas, algust ei kuulnud, kuid tuleviku osas loodetakse peamiselt meediatoele. Tulemused olid tugevad, kuid endiselt ei usu, et terve aasta vastu suudetakse pidada.
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Päris huvitav on täna jälgida Yahoo(YHOO) aktsia liikumist pärast seda, kui ettevõtte juhtkond on öelnud, et MSFTi $31-list ülevõtupakkumist vastu ei võeta. Hetkel YHOO 2% plusspoolel ja liiguvad jutud, et investorid tahavad aktsia eest saada isegi kuni $40.
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Vitali (VTAL) kohta käisid Briefingust läbi sellised read:
Minneapolis Star Tribune reports to some analysts, Vital's choices are clear. "Turn your business around or sell it," said Sean Wieland, an analyst with Piper Jaffray. A sale is plausible. The co's software, including Vitrea and ViTALConnect, is generally considered the best in the industry. Vital is also sitting on $180 mln in cash, money the co stockpiled to make acquisitions but has yet to spend. Its mkt cap is about $281 mln. So far no one has made any overtures to buy Vital, sources close to the co say. Nevertheless, Vital would have no shortage of potential suitors: The co competes against major CT manufacturers like GE, SI and Philips, which make their own software. Vital also has a close strategic partnership with Toshiba, which some analysts describe as the most logical buyer...
Midagi uut siin ei ole ja kui ma viimati vaatasin, siis vähemalt ühe võimalusega (ettevõtte ümberpööramisega) ka väga aktiivselt tegeleti...
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Alates 19. veebruarist asendatakse Dow 30 indeksis Altrea (MO) ja Honeywell HON, asemele tulevad BofA (BAC) ja Chevron (CVX)!!!
Viimane muudatus indeksis tehti 4 aastat tagasi -
Doesn't Look Like a Good Market Bottom
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/11/2008 8:06 AM EST
The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions.
-- Paul A. Samuelson
There is little question about what is causing the recent pressure on the stock market. We are pricing in a recession. That means earnings estimates are likely to come down and multiples likely to contract. That sort of adjustment is never easy and takes time, which is why the market action has been so poor lately.
Some market pundits believe that the market is being overly pessimistic about our economic future. The market does tend to go too far when it begins to trend and price in anticipated events, but the big question is whether we have already corrected sufficiently and are now likely to find a bottom and turn back up.
I don't see any reason to believe that to be the case. While we certainly are due for some relief bounces, it seems like the market is still coming to grips with the problems that have been plaguing us. Just this morning, The Wall Street Journal has a front page article about how the credit crunch is spreading to other areas, and there is an article in Financial Times about how subprime losses may now rise to as much as $400 billion.
What seems particularly interesting is that many on Wall Street seem to be questioning whether we really will even have a recession. They don't seem to think that things are all that bad, but according to an Associated Press poll, 61% of the public believes that we are already in a recession.
I'm no economist and I'm certainly not going to base my view of the market on my economic analysis. What I do know is that the news flow is very poor, the market is trending down and there are still many people who believe the economy isn't in that bad of shape. That doesn't strike me as a very promising setup for a market bottom.
The great likelihood is that the market will continue to have a number of failed rallies within a downtrend that cause further discouragement. Each time we rally, a number of folks will declare that the worst is over. Eventually they will be right, but the real bottom will not come until they are proved wrong several times and want to give up.
The market is trying to stabilize this morning. We have some minor technical support and are a bit oversold, which may help support a bounce, but keep in mind that in a downtrend, strength is going to be sold. If you play the bounce, don't wait to get out.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VRAD +4.9%, GTS +3.3%, BER +1.9%... M&A news: HYC +40.8% (receives letter from Ingenico making offer to acquire HYC for $6.25/share), POSS +34.5% (to be acquired by Medrad for $19.50/share), KWD +1.6% (enters into merger agreement with Sun Capital for $21/share)... Select solar stocks showing strength: SPWR +5.4% (also mentioned positively in Barron's), JASO +3.3%, STP +3.2%, ESLR +3.1%, LDK +3.0%, CSIQ +2.9%, FSLR +2.5%... Other news: ONT +13.4% (announces IFX chooses On2 for video codecs), OSUR +7.4% (OraSure Tech and SGP sign international collaboration for rapid point-of-care oral Hepatitis C test), TASR +6.4% (receives "significant" order from new foreign country), CTIC +5.8% (announces that pixantrone was shown to reduce the severity of clinical manifestation in the animal model of the autoimmune disease myasthenia gravis), NEU +4.2% (will replace ATR in the S&P SmallCap 600), ATR +3.9% (will replace VMSI in the S&P MidCap 400), LMC +3.1% (still checking), TWX +2.6% (Yahoo set to revive merger talks with AOL after rejecting hostile takeover - Times of London), AAPL +2.0% (named Top Pick at Citigroup), GFA +1.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: DSCO +4.6% (upgraded to Buy at Brean Murray), FRO +2.8% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), JCI +2.3% (upgraded to Buy at Calyon).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: BLDR -11.4%, BRO -10.8% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Piper Jaffray), INXI -6.2%, BWP -1.9%... Select chinese oil names trading lower: CEO -4.8%, PTR -3.1%, SNP -3.1%... Other news: CHTT -6.8% (announces voluntary recall of Icy Hot Heat Therapy product), SLT -5.3% (still checking), BRLC -5.3% (announces delay of Q208 earnings and provides preliminary Q208 update and an inventory repurchase), HMY -4.6% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: NURO -20.0% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stanford), VLCM -4.3% (downgraded to Mkt Weight at Thomas Weisel), CNC -2.4% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), LVLT -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), UTIW -1.6% (downgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns). -
Kuulujutud liikvel seoses NIHDi ülevõtu võimalusega...
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AIG on küll veel 10% miinuses, kuid põhjadest dollari ülespoole kerkinud. Krediidiprobleemid ja mahakirjutamised jätkuvalt turgu kummitamas, kuid halbade uudiste peale ülespoole liikumine on alati tugevuse märk.
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CNBC kommentaatori poolt avaldatud AIG mahakirjutamiste mahuks peaks olema $5 miljardit ning nii mõnigi juhtfiguur saaks sule sappa. Peale oodatavat lisa ulatuks AIG mahakirjutamiste maht $20 miljardini.
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VTAL nagu päris ellu ärganud...
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kid1, eks taolised vihjed tekitavad alati mingit huvi, aga praegu Vitali ostu kellegi teise poolt eriti tõenäoliseks ei pea. Kindlasti mõjuvad aktsiale ka eelootavad. 21. veebruaril avaldatavad tulemused. Üsna kriitilise tähtsusega kvartal, mis annab aimu, kas probleemid olid ettevõtte-spetsiifilised või laiemad. Toshiba uus skänner ning Vitali uued tooted on suurepärased ja saanud kiitvat tagasisidet, loodetavasti kajastub see ka müüginumbrites.
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Hasbro on päeva alguse +6% pealt kukkunud +1% peale ning ega konkurentide aktsiate käekäik väga rõõmustav pole. Hasbrol aitas päeva põhjadest põrgata Cramer, kelle meelest on sektori aktsiad praegu odavad, eriti meeldib talle JAKKS Pacific (JAKK).
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Homme võib siis oodata taaskord ühte plaani - sedapuhku siis vallast, et kuidas vältida majade enneaegset klientide käest äravõtmist.
6 U.S. Lenders to release plan Tuesday to halt foreclosure for some delinquent borrowers, according to sources
White House's Lazear says U.S. not in recession now, says growth to remain positive (päris julge väide)
Lazear says has not seen long-term unemployment levels trending higher; about at level of mid-1990s
LAZEAR SAYS BOTTOMING OF HOUSING MARKET MAY BE STARTING, BUT EFFECTS OF DOWNTURN TO BE PROLONGED - Reuters -
Üks hästi tore tsitaat ühest tänasest Bear Sternsi analüütiku note'ist: "I think the subprime thing is yesterday's news ... I think we are now double-counting subprime losses,"
Nii mõnedki tuntud nimed on juba tegelikult avaldanud arvamust, et subprime'iga seotud kahjusid on üle hinnatud ja ehk hakatakse mahakantud varasid bilanssi mingil hetkel tagasi kandma. Kuid ega subprime ole muidugi ainuke probleem finantsettevõtete jaoks.
