Börsipäev 7. märts
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Tänaselt tööjõuraportilt oodatakse, et töötuse määr tõuseb tagasi detsembri 5%-ni, kuid mitteametlikud ootused tunduvad veel kõrgemal olevat. See omakorda tähendab, et futuurid indikeerivad 98%-lise tõenäosusega 0.75%-list intressimäärade kärbet. Dollarile see positiivselt ei mõju, uus põhi euro vastu on $1.5430.
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Kuigi nüüd tööjõuraporti number on ikkagi 'umbmäärane' ja reaalne töökohtade lisamine/vähenemine võib kõikuda ca +/-100,000 võrra, siis ütlen ikkagi ära, et tänane konsensusootus veebruarikuu kohta on +25,000. Esialgsed andmed jaanuari kohta olid mäletatavasti -17 000 ning tähelepanu siis ka selle numbri uuendatud suurusele.
Negatiivne number lennutaks USA majanduse majanduslanguse hirme ja suurendaks investorite ootusi intressimäära kärpe osas (ja ilmselt kuuleksime siis taas palveid/soove/arvamusi kärpe tegemise kohta juba enne regulaarset kohtumist 18. märtsil). Oodatust ilusam number peaks aga viimase aja aktsiaturu karude rõõmupidu vähendama. -
Ei pidanudki väga kaua ootama:
CNBC attributes recent gains in futures to rumors & blog posting suggesting the Fed could ease rates today in emergency action -
FED likviidsus rindel toetamas. FRB: The Federal Reserve on Friday announced two initiatives to address heightened liquidity pressures in term funding markets.
1) The amounts outstanding in the Term Auction Facility (TAF) will be increased to $100 billion.
2) Beginning today, the Federal Reserve will initiate a series of term repurchase transactions that are expected to cumulate to $100 billion. -
Föderaalreserv on intressikärbete asemel inflatsiooni tõttu muutumas loomingulisemaks? Hea küsimus on see, kas see tähendab ka väiksemaid kärpeid Fedi poolt 18. märtsil...
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February Nonfarm Payrolls -63K vs 25K consensus, January revised to -23K from -17K
Ametlik töötuse määr aga 4.8% vs kardetud 5.0%.
Link terviklikule pressiteatele siin.
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No eile veel implied probability näitas -50 bps cutti sel aastal kindlasti ja -75 bps oli üsna tõenäoline. US reaalintressid varsti kõrge infla kaasabil nii negatiivsed. Hmmm...
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Implied probability: 75BPS cut 100% sisse kaubeldud, 100bps cut üsna tõenäoline.
wink-wink -
Reaalintressidest siis... core PCE inflatsioon on 2.2%... üldinflatsioon koos toidu ja energiaga peaks olema 4.2% (tarbija seisukohast kusjuures näiteks hariduse, meditsiini inflatsioon pisut üle 6%, energiast ja toidust ei räägigi). Tänane Föderaalreservi intress täna veel 3.0% ja varsti veelgi vähem. Põhimõtteliselt on USA reaalintressid juba täna negatiivsed (vähemasti tavainimese seisukohast kindlasti).
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Ainult punased toonid...
Saksamaa DAX -1.71%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.66%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.50%
Hispaania IBEX -1.25%
Venemaa MICEX -2.21%
Poola WIG -2.00%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.27%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.60%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.39%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.54%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.35%
Tai Set -0.76%
India Sensex -3.42%
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Jobs Number Confirms the Downward Trend
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/7/2008 9:00 AM EST
The jobs report is out, and the headline number is indeed a disappointing loss of 63,000 jobs vs. expectations of a gain of 25,000 jobs. In addition, December and January figures were revised down. The less important household survey shows the unemployment rate a bit better at 4.8%.
This report is confirmation that the trend is down and that we are in great danger of falling into a recession if we haven't already. The big problem is that many people fear that things will get worse before they get better.
The Fed has already reacted this morning with some additional moves to increase liquidity. Unfortunately, the market seems to feel that this has taken an intermeeting interest rate cut off the table. It is hope of a cut that has the best chances of putting a floor under this market.
We are oversold, and things are very gloomy, and that supports some sort of technical bounce, but without some positive news catalyst, it is hard to imagine we can do much to the upside. Market players are more likely looking for ways to escape this market rather than opportunities to buy "bargains," and that is what will provide much overhead resistance.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MVIS +19.3%, SMTX +17.5%, UWN +17.2%, ZQK +10.2%, OPTM +9.6%, EBS +9.3%, EJ +8.2%, IDIX +7.4%, NSM +7.1%, SWHC +7.0%, COO +6.2%, VVUS +5.2%, ANSW +5.1%, PSMT +4.8%, NSTR +4.6%, CIEN +4.3%, AUO +3.5%, MF +3.3%, CPE +2.8%, DEPO +2.3%, FIZZ +2.0%, IVC +1.3%... M&A news: ATAR +8.1% (receives offer from Infogrames Entertainment S.A equal to $1.68/share)... Other news: SFI +14.4% (co declared regular dividend & is holding business update call), PWER +10.0% (extends $50 mln loan agreement for 2 yrs), VMED +6.3% (appoints Neil Berkett as CEO and announces the upcoming resignation of its Chief Financial Officer), TMS +6.3% (rebounding after this week's ~11% decline), CHU +4.3% (to spend RMB20 bln on GSM update - Pacific Epoch), CMO +3.4% (modestly rebounding after yesterday's ~30% drop), SPC +2.9% (has entered into a confidentiality and standstill agreement with Harbinger Capital), ARRY +2.9% (Director bought 30K shares at $6.37 on 3/5), NFLX +2.2% (announces authorization of new $150 mln stock buyback), ALB +2.1% (to raise prices of ETHACURE curatives), SAP +2.0% (still checking), EGO +1.8% (continued momentum following yesterday's 12% surge), BHI +1.8% (reports Feb 08 rig counts), KNL +1.7% (announces 10b5-1 Plan; Banc of America Securities will have the authority to repurchase up to an aggregate of ~$10 bln worth of the cos stock)... Analyst upgrades: BBI +6.2% (added to Top Picks list at Citigroup), URBN +4.7% (upgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), BIG +3.7% (upgraded to Buy at Soleil), GLBL +3.0% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), STRA +3.0% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel), CEO +2.7% (hearing upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm), MKTX +2.5% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse), FLWS +2.3% (initiated with Buy at Soleil), MPG +2.0% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank)
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: PSPT -23.7% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Piper Jaffray), CPRT -13.5%, BLG -13.4%, BOOM -10.4%, VE -9.7%, ANGO -9.3%, RAE -7.8% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan), CASY -6.9%, MRVL -6.6%, DSTI -5.6%, UMC -1.5%... Select financial stocks showing weakness on multiple negative news items: LM -5.6% (announces that it has obtained a letter of credit from a large bank to provide support to a Structured Investment Vehicle holding in a money market fund), WM -4.5% (seeks cash infusions from private-equity and sovereign-wealth funds), CIT -2.2%, C -2.1% (to reduce residential mortgage assets in its U.S. mortgage biz by approx $45 bln over the next 12 months), LEH -2.0%, MS -1.9%, GS -1.6%, MER -1.4%, BSC -1.3%... Select solar stocks showing weakness: YGE -4.2%, SOLF -3.7%, CSIQ -3.1%, FSLR -2.4%, JASO -1.6%, ESLR -1.3%, SPWR 1.5%... Other news: FRZ -22.1% (Federal officials executed a search warrant at the co's office and downgraded to Mkt Perform at Wachovia), ABK -11.1% (prices common stock and equity unit offerings for an aggregate of $1.5 bln), NG -8.0% (plans C$130 mln shr offering), ALD -7.0% (files for a 4 mln share common stock secondary offering), TI -6.9% (showing continued weakness after reporting qtrly results yesterday), PNM -6.2% (announces electric rate recommended decision issued), MT -2.6%, BHP -1.6% and RTP -1.6% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: ZINC -8.5% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Friedman Billings), RAE -7.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan), SHO -6.5% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette), RDY -3.8% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), FCX -2.2% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Friedman Billings), TRAK -2.1% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at JMP), -
09:34 RTRS - Estonia plans U.S. visa deal next week
tra, selle uudise pärast USA turg kukubki. -
oot, Estonia on Visa IPO underwriter?
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ei, Esimene eestlane saab VISA kaardi
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Lõpuks siis tunnustatakse ka kõrgemal tasemel, sest eestlased on kogu aeg visad olnud.
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bruce willis
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USAs juba suures kartuses arvestatakse Visa mega writedowne, kuna see ainuke magnetkaart scämmitakse nii ära, et saab mortgage laenu võtta piiramatult ja ilma mortagegata siis.
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Üsna loogiline, et asi saab formaalsused Tartus Visa hallis
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Urmas Sõõrumaa saab lõpuks visa krediitkaardi ? Tõepoolest , finantsjärelvalve on nõrgaks jäänud ....
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Oliver Kruuda, Armin Karu ja Jaan Toots osalevad avalikul loosimisel (kes saab kaardi), show kantakse üle ETV-s 22. märtsil kell 21.00 (AK jääb sel päeval ära)
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Kes šõud juhib, Maire Aunaste?
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Mati & Alice Talvik!
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Nagu öeldud, show toimub Tartus Visa hallis, auhindu tuleb kätte andma Rkzst Zlovonski, Visa International East Poland Vice President .
Esineb Nancy, pärast kohvi ja disko.
(sorry, reede) -
eino selge, siis on enam kui kindel, et vahepalasid esitab Tipp&Täpp Break Group
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ABH
AbitibiBowater announces comprehensive refinancing plan
ABH käis NC alt läbi mingi aeg tagasi ning tänase teate valguses on kartused, mis ta 10 juurde tõi, kummutatud
NC ootas põrget juba 16 juurest, kuid reitingu alandus, mis eeldas et ta ei suuda oma laenusid refinantseerida, tõi ta hoopis allapoole
spekulatiivne panus -
ahjaa
Citi target on 60 ja short interest üle 20% -
kannatust, see on alles plaan, mitte actual refininacing
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samas kui see oleks actual, siis nii odavalt seda aktsiat enam ei saaks
ah mis ma soperdan, uurige ise kui huvitab
ise long
March 05, 2008
AbitibiBowater Ready To Tap The Money Pits (ABH)
AbitibiBowater Inc. (NYSE: ABH) has just set the stage to raise additional capital, although it was known that some of this may be coming down the pipe. The company has filed prospectus for an open S-3 that would allow the company to sell securities either in debt, preferred, common stock, or warrants. No dollar amounts were offered and no underwriters were named.
AbitibiBowater produces a wide range of newsprint and commercial printing papers, market pulp and wood products in the U.S., Canada, and around the globe. On October 29, 2007, Abitibi-Consolidated Inc. and Bowater Inc. completed their merger of equals. If you have kept up with the newspaper and print publishing industry woes over the last 24 months and combined with a freshly-closed merger and a weakening economy for most of its products, this is no surprise at all that the company wants to raise funds.
The company did amend some credit facilities recently and had already noted that it was exploring multiple financing alternatives for additional liquidity in 2008 and 2009. It also has debt maturities of more than $300 million coming up but the combined old-co filings rather than new-co filings need to be verified to see what maturities are still outstanding. Its 10-K is still outstanding so we can't compare this on an apples to apples basis. Analysts are still cautious on this stock, although the target price looks much higher because of the huge drop seen over the last 6-months. This stock has fallen sharply since being relaunched as a combined company as shares have fallen from north of $30 to under $10 before today's 10% recovery. Shares were north of $15.00 before earnings at the end of February.
Because of the way the economy is heading and because of the domestic newsprint industry in the U.S. and Canada, it's just hard to get excited here. The short interest is rather large at 12.77 million shares on last look which is about 10 days worth of average trading volume. Only that huge drop and major short interest makes this one of any interest. We'll stay tuned for any further developments because this one would act like a spring board on anything that resembles good news.
Our first suggestion for use of funds after repaying the upcoming debt maturities would be simple: a name change. -
09:02 LDK LDK Solar: Needham sees LDK as attractive, undervalued at 6x 09 EPS est (24.27 )
Needham believes LDK is attractive for the following reasons: 1) they est that revs will grow at a 80%-plus CAGR in 2007- 2010; 2) favorably positioned in the PV food chain at the higher end of margins with potential for increases by 2009 with its backward integration to manufacture raw polysilicon; 3) solid supply agreements for raw polysilicon and ingot growing equipment covers 80% of their 2008 rev ests, respectively; 4) an impressive customer base that is growing and becoming less concentrated and more diverse geographically with total output for 2008 100% sold out due to very strong demand. LDK has 10GW booked so far equivalent to an impressive $22 bln. -
Telecom Italia in talks with Apple about iPhone in Italy, declines to give details of Apple negotiations.
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Naftafutuurid langesid negatiivsele poolele, mis annab turule hetkel tuge.
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Bushi poolt siis meie aja järgi kell 21.00 kõne USA majanduse hetkeolukorrast ja tulevikust ning abimeetmetest, saab näha kas toetab turge.
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arvan,et Bush suudab süstida optimismi ja pakub midagi populistlikku välja ning see veab turud tõusule aga ex näis...
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Kas kõne veebis ka üle kantakse?
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Kõne läbi. Mitte midagi uut välja ei öeldud.
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Mismõttes läbi? Ehk saaks linki
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Hoopis TMA on osutunud tänaseks valulapseks.
Thornburg Mortage had outstanding margin calls of $610.0 mln which significantly exceeded its available liquidity. -
Turud rallivad ülespoole sellise ABK-ga seonduva uudise peale:
AMBAC Fincl CEO buys 25K shares at $6.75; 2 directors & a VP buy 10K shares each at $6.75, another director buys 20K shares at $6.75 -
Päris huvitav, kuidas ühe firma elu paneb kogu turu võnkuma. Nendel võlakirjakindlustajatel hoitakse päris teraselt pilk peal.
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No kuulge, see ABK on kokku 300,000 USD eest aktsiaostu, see nüüd küll turgu ei kergita. Short covering enne nädalavahetust pigem.
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Ühest saab teine ja nii tulebki ralli:)
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Turg on tõeliselt skiso viimasel tunnil olnud, jube tõmblemine käib.
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Skiso jah, liikumine üsna imelik päeva lõpus ja käivet ka korralikult. Midagi lõhnab siin turul imelikult, ma arvan, et paari nädala jooksul selgub, mis siin haisu ajab.
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Pakuks, et keegi suure rahakoti ja veel suuremate munadega tegelane panustas emergency rate cutile. Kui seda ei tule, on seesama tegelane teistpidi müügipoolel ja esmaspäev võib fugly tulla.
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Ma pakuks tänase päeva lõpetuseks löödud pullidele kahte suurepärast järgnevat Sir Winston Churchilli tsitaati:
1)Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm.
2)However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.
: ) -
Reports: Countrywide Financial Corp. Under Federal Investigation for Securities Fraud. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080309/countrywide_probe.html
