Börsipäev 11. märts
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Räägime täna natukene sundmüügist. Bloombergis on väga hea artikkel, mis väärib kindlasti lugemist. Nimelt, nagu oleme ka IK materjalide all Pros kirjutanud, on hedge-fondide populaarsus kõvasti pihta saanud ning fondidest on raha välja jooksmas. Asja teeb hullemaks see, et fondidele võimendust pakkuvad pangad on viimasel ajal suurendanud laenu tagatiseks vajaminevat raha nõuet/vähendanud varade tagatismäära.
Mis on aga eriti huvitav - tagatise nõudeid on suurendatud isegi USA riiklikele võlakirjadele. Alates 15. veebruarist on kuu ajaga end turul likvideerinud vähemalt 6 hedge-fondi, koguväärtuses $5.4 miljardit. Laenamise kulud fondidele on kasvanud kohati isegi kuni 10 korda.
Tänane sundmüük tulenevalt (võimendusega) hedge-fondide positsioonide likvideerimisest tähendab minu arust aga seda, et oleme müügipaanika viimastes faasides. Eddington Capital Managementi investeeringute peastrateeg hedge-fondide likvideerimiste kohta: ``There has to be more in the next weeks. There are people who have been hanging on by their fingernails who can't hold on much, much longer.''
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Ja ärge siis tänagi ära unustage, et kolm nädalat nüüd turud USAs avatud 15:30 kuni 22:00!
Ameerika Ühendriigid lähevad suveajale üle märtsi teisel pühapäeval (ehk sel aastal oli see 9. märts) ning Euroopa Liit teeb sama sammu märtsi viimasel pühapäeval - kuna sedapuhku on märtsis 5 pühapäeva, siis EL võtab uue aja kasutusele alles 30. märtsil.
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Ja Briefingust täna siia otsa NY Times'i kommentaar, et Citigroup on oma võimendusega hedge-fondidele taaskord raha sisse süstimas, et margin calle ja sundmüüki vältida.
The NY Times reports Citigroup (C) moved Monday to shore up six of its hedge funds pressured by a tightening in the municipal bond market, the newest problem to entangle the struggling co. The bank has committed to injecting $1 bln across six highly leveraged municipal bond funds with $15 bln in assets, which were sold to wealthy customers under the names ASTA and MAT. About $600 mln had been provided as of last week, according to people briefed on the situation, after lenders issued a margin call in response to falling securities values. The effort is the latest by the chief executive, Vikram S. Pandit, to stabilize the bank. Citigroup has also rescued seven affiliated investment funds, shifting more than $49 billion in securities onto its already strained balance sheet.
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Lühiajaliselt ootan ka põrget, kuid seda tuleb kindlasti kasutada (lühikeseks) müümiseks.
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Gigamedia (GIGM): Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.18 per share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.17; revenues rose 58.5% year/year to $47.7 mln vs the $47.6 mln consensus.
Tugev kvartal, mida Playtechi ilusate numbrite järel vaid oodata võiski. Netimängurlus jätkab täiel hool. -
Paar päeva tagasi küsiti siin foorumis Fedi erakorraliste sammude kellaaegade kohta. Panen siis puhtalt infoks viimased kaks olukorda ka siia üles:
17. augustil, 2007, kui langetati erakorraliselt diskontomäära 50 baasipunkti võrra, tehti seda kell 8.15 ET.
22. jaanuaril, 2008, kui langetati erakorraliselt nii diskonto- kui põhimäära 75 baasipunkti võrra, toimus see kell 7.20 ET. -
ei tea kas Bud Fox (Charlie Sheen mängitud tegelane filmis Wall Street) on juba luuramas Bernanke maja juures mis kell Ben kodust välja tuleb?
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NYMEX-i toornaftafutuurid teevad järjest uusi tippe, uss päevasisene rekord siis $109.56 barrelist
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Alvar: Past experience shows that 90% Down Days are typically followed by one of three patterns: (1) a 90% Up Day occurring quickly after the 90% Down Day would suggest that a sustained rally lasting about two or more months is likely; (2) the absence of a 90% Up Day during a snap-back rally would suggest that a brief recovery rally lasting 2 to 7 trading days would most likely be followed by new lows in price and additional 90% Down Days. Such rallies should be used to sell stocks; (3) the lack of any snap-back rally within a few days after the last 90% Down Day would suggest a sustained market decline is underway that will probably produce additional 90% Down Days.” Indeed, we think this is “kiss and tell” week and we continue to trade, and invest, accordingly.
R.J, muidugi on see kõik ainult ajalugu. -
Tundub, et fed tahab vägisi tehnikutele seda 90% up päeva ette sokutada:
U.S. stock index futures rose sharply on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve announced a coordinated effort with other central banks to add liquidity to strained credit markets, a move that sent financial company shares higher.
S&P 500 futuresjumped 18.20 points, above fair value, a pricing evaluation that accounts for interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract -
Loominguliseks on mindud - likviidsust üritatakse pakkuda ja seda finantsmaailm ka ootab.
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Ja USA on Föderaalreservi koordineeritud likviidsuse pakkumise järel avanemas 2% kõrgemalt.
Saksamaa DAX +2.22%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +2.46%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +2.68%
Hispaania IBEX +3.76%
Venemaa MICEX +2.50%
Poola WIG +0.99%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.01%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.28%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.47%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.48%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.73%
Tai Set +2.03%
India Sensex +1.25%
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How Long Will Today's Bounce Last?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/11/2008 9:13 AM EDT
Where large sums of money are concerned, it is advisable to trust nobody.
-- Agatha Christie
The Fed is making a move that's giving the market a big boost in the early going. Rather than give us another rate cut, which so far has proven ineffective, the Fed is attempting to increase liquidity by easing lending standards.
Many have seen the real problem with the markets as being caused by margin calls, deleveraging and tightening lending standards rather than the level of interest rates. The Fed is trying to deal directly with the real issue, and early indications are that the market likes it.
Of course, as I discussed yesterday, this market was oversold technically and overdue for a bounce. All we needed was a spark of good news to ignite a bounce, and that is what we have today.
The question is: How long does this bounce last? Let's immediately dismiss the contention that this market has seen the lows. It is possible, but there is absolutely no proof that that is the case. We can't trust this market and start making longer-term buys until it has proven itself for a while.
Given the extent of the negativity that has built up over the last few weeks, this bounce is likely to squeeze some shorts and cause some cash from the sidelines to jump back in the market. That may get a pretty decent bounce going. However, keep in mind that there are lots of people who will be happy to dump positions into strength and that the bears are likely to reload shorts aggressively as we hit resistance levels.
All bounces remain suspect.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SYX +30.4% (also announces special $1.00 per share dividend), TMA +12.7%, WEL +11.7%, IPAR +10.9%, FACE +7.6%, BONT +6.5%, LACO +4.5%, SYKE +3.6%, CMGI +3.6%, ESLT +3.5%, CSR +3.0%, CECE +2.8%, GIGM +2.7%, GSOL +2.4%, RCNI +2.4%... Select metal stocks showing strength: DROOY +7.7%, SLV +6.3%, GOLD +5.1%, HMY +4.0%, GFI +3.5%, PAL +2.8%, AUY +2.1%, GLD +1.3%... Select financial stocks rebounding: CS +3.4%, BCS +3.3%, UBS +3.3%, C +2.8% (acts to bolster hedge funds, committed to injecting $1 bln across six highly leveraged municipal bond funds - NY Times), MER +2.5%, GS +1.6%... Other news: ID +10.0% (awarded the U.S. passport card program by the Dept of State; valued at estimated $107 mln over 5 yrs), HALO +8.0% (presents favorable safety and pharmacokinetic data), CMO +7.7% (raises dividend to $0.52, up from previous dividend of $0.24), SNTS +5.3% (announces submission of new drug application by Schering-Plough for Zegerid branded OTC product), MT +4.4% (still checking), ACCL +4.4% (Accelrys and Agilent Technologies extend their relationship with OEM agreement), BBW +4.2% (completes review of strategic alternatives; board increases share repurchase authorization to up to $50 mln), CSG +3.6% (still checking), TS +2.5% (still checking), TOT +2.1% (still checking),
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: JSDA -28.3% (also downgraded to Sell at ThinkEquity), WLP -21.1% (also multiple analyst downgrades), AET -10.8%, TCM -3.4%, TXN -3.2% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Piper Jaffray), GAIA -3.1%, ALTU -2.6%... Select healthcare stocks showing weakness following WLP guidance: HUM -13.9%, UNH -8.8%, MOH -7.0%, CI -6.9%, CVH -6.0% (also downgraded to Hold at Stifel)... Other news: FRPT -8.0%, CNC -6.3% (still checking), STP -2.7% (announces proposed offering of $425 mln convertible senior notes), NOK -4.0% (down in sympathy with TXN). -
The cost of protecting U.S. investment banks' debt with credit default swaps plunged on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve announced a coordinated central bank move to pump liquidity into the financial system.
Bear Stearns'five-year credit default swaps tumbled by 75 basis points to to 565 basis points, or $565,000 a year to protect $10 million of debt, while Merrill Lynch's
swaps fell by 80 basis points to 315 basis points, according to data from Phoenix Partners Group. -
the street.com downgradeb SIGM to hold
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Howard Simon Realmoney'st mõlgutamas mõtteid selle üle, kas ja millal võib USA krediidireiting maailmas langeda:
We have to confront the possibility the U.S. credit rating will slip in the years to come. A government incapable of balancing its books, willing to finance wars through inflation and willing to stiff its global creditors via dollar debasement now is willing to convert the portfolio of its central bank into a septic tank.
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Fedil oleks minu arust kõige lihtsam naftavarusid müüa ,saaks naftahinna alla ja inflatsioon oleks ka madalam.
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aga Joel, miks GIGM täna siis nii alla müüakse?
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ktammin, hea küsimus ja veel ei julge/oska vastata, sest parasjagu kuulan ettevõtte hommikust konverentsikõnet, mille esimene pool mulle küll igaljuhul rõõmu valmistab. Nii kiiret kukkumist võib vallandada mõni analüütiku negatiivne kommentaar (kuid näppu pole veel ühtegi jäänud). Samuti on turg ülevaltpoolt avanedes loonud head tingimused kõikide aktsiate müümiseks... Aga nii kui rohkem selgust saan, annan kindlasti teada.
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Aktsiaturg tervikuna tantsib rohelistest hommikustest tundidest hoolimata karupolkat ning tugevust ollaks mõlema käpaga alla surumas. Bear Sterns(BSC) jätkab eilset suurt miinuspäeva ja on -8%(!). Põhjuseks likviidsus-, maksevõime-, krediidi- ja kõik muud kahtlused, mis pähe võiksid tulla.
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Terve USA finantssüsteem suundub sinna, kuhu läks Enron. Stiili poolest nagu kaks tilka vett.
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Punk Ziegel langetas Bear Stearnsi hinnasihti $90 pealt $45 peale.
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Kas keegi võiks SIRF-ile prognoosi panna!
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prognoos on selline et kui oleks mingigi võimalus et ta tõusma hakkab, siis poleks ma teda reedel maha müünud
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White Nigga, tubli siis, õnnestus põhjast müüa.
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mida sa sogad, isegi praegu maksab vähem kui siis kui myysin
ostsin muidugi palju kõrgemalt... -
härrased.
mul näitab traderis QQQQ päeva tipuks 1710.95 ??? põhi on samas kõigest 41.51
ega keegi siinsetest nii tipust ometi juhtunud ostma;)? -
sain napilt 1648 pealt qqqq puti kätte, homme üritan 43 pealt müüa:)
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WCG taas alla cash'i
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speedy, milles siis WCG puhul probleem? Oled lähemalt uurinud? Vaatasin, et võlg e. kohustused ei ole proportsioonis cashiga väga suur.
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Viimase aja liikumised võiks naljaga pooleks kokku võtta niimoodi : )
Manic Monday
Turnaround Tuesday
(F)Wollow-(Thr)Wrough Wednesday
Tricky Thursday
Free-Falling Friday -
Joel... aga mida Pauksonid ja VigalaSass ennustavad? :)
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Pauksonid ennustasid, et homme, pealpool Pilvit, pidi suht päikseline olema, peale "äikest", olevat mingid perekondllikud soojenemised täitsa oodatavad, kuigi peale Fedja väljas käiimist meenutavat tegevusved pigem ....., aga Laine on siiski ootamas, nimelt, tema enam ilpma obamaat ei murdu................
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WCG'l on probe üleval
fbi uurib midagi, aga keegi ei tea, mida ta tegelikult uuritakse
juhtkonda on vahetatud ja firma teeb koostööd
firmal on raha 1.6B,
cash is the king -
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Huvitaval kombel oli mul lugu SIRFi kohta valmis juba paar nädalat ning ootas õiget hetke. Panin praegu üles.
