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Börsipäev 12. märts

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  • Eile õhtul poolteist tundi pärast turu sulgemist kinnitas Caterpillar (CAT) oma 2008. aasta müügitulu kasvu prognoosi vahemikus 5-10% ning aktsiapõhise kasvu prognoosi 5-15%. Lisaks oldi optimistlikud aga tuleviku suhtes – aastaks 2010 loodetakse näha aastast läbimüüki mahus $60 miljardit, mis on tänasest ootusest $56 miljardit ca 8% suurem. CAT eelturul +1.9%.

    Päikeseenergia sektori sõpradele pakub täna helge tuleviku lootuses häid uudiseid JASO agressiivne müügitulu prognoos vahemikus $990 miljonit kuni $1.1 miljardit vs senine turu konsensusootus $761 miljonit. Aktsia on selle peale ka üle 10% plusspoolele kauplemispäeva alustamas.
  • Venemaa suuruselt teine telekom Vimpelcom (VIP) teatas täna oma kvartalitulemused:

    Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.36 per share, $0.03 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.39; revenues rose 38.5% year/year to $2.01 bln vs the $2.01 bln consensus. Co reports active subscriber base up 13.6% yr/yr to 51.7 mln customers, with fixed line subscribers up 3.4% yr/yr to 629k.

    Kvartali keskmine tulu kasutaja kohta oli riigiti küllalt erineva dünaamikaga: Venemaal +24%, Ukrainas +33%, Kasahstanis -5.8%, Usbekistanis -40.3% (tulud tõusid siiski 21.6%, sest kasutajate arv tõusis 33.6%), Tadžikistan 0%, Armeenia +2.4%.

    Tegevjuht Izosimov kommenteeris  tervet aastat ise nii: "2007 was another excellent year for VimpelCom. Our revenues exceeded $7 billion and grew at a remarkable rate of 47%. We maintained our OIBDA margin at an impressive level of 50%. Strong revenue growth, coupled with a healthy margin and a balanced investment policy, resulted in free cash flow of $1.26 billion, almost tripling the 2006 level. Our strong financial position supports our aspiration to expand into adjacent businesses and new geographic areas".

    Aktsia on eelturul -5%, kuid hoolimata lühiajalise languse tõenäolisest jätkumisest, võib pika horisondiga investoritel saabuda millalgi ka sobiv ostukoht.

  • Veel päikeseenergiast: Coweni meelest võib Suntech (STP) pakkuda turust 50% paremat tootlust järgmise 12 kuu jooksul:

    Cowen notes that trading around 12x their 2009E EPS, they believe STP shares offer 50%+ upside vs. the market in 12 months. They think investors may be puzzled by the timing of the convert offering, given market conditions and the low share price. However, they say this is driven by the lead time to add polysilicon capacity, and it should give STP access to l-t, low-cost supply. While the deal is slightly dilutive this year, it could be offset by higher rev in 2009.

  • Ameerika turud on eilse viimase 5 aasta suurima tõusu järel alustamas nulli lähedalt.

    Saksamaa DAX +1.02%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.58%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.41%

    Hispaania IBEX +1.03%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.21%

    Poola WIG -0.03%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.60%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.86%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.30%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.25%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.66%

    Tai Set +0.95%

    India Sensex +0.03%

  • Bear Stearns CEO Alan Schwartz kinnitas CNBC-le, et ettevõttel ei ole likviidsusprobleeme.
    As mentioned at 9:13, BSC CEO appeared on CNBC and said that there has been a lot of volatility in the market, a lot of disruption that is causing some pressure administratively getting trades settled.
  • Walking a Fine Line
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/12/2008 9:09 AM EDT


    Every story can be told in different ways.
    -- Greek proverb

    The headlines this morning are blaring with talk about the biggest market gain in five years. Indeed it was a very good point move, but we aren't even back up to where we were three days ago and we are still buried in an ugly downtrend.

    Yes, the big bounce yesterday on good volume is certainly a technical positive and bodes well for some future upside, but it by no means is an indication that we have turned the corner and that it will be clear sailing from here.

    Big, sudden spikes are the nature of bear markets; often they will be intense enough and last long enough to cause people to believe that the worst is over. It is the restoration of hope that ultimately causes the most pain in a bear market.

    At this juncture we are faced with an interesting balancing act. While we certainly can't start believing that a major turn is taking place, we want to give this bounce plenty of room to play out. Investors are so negative and so underinvested that they are very poorly positioned for strength at this point. That is going to help support us, and if we actually can hold up for a while, some of the money on the sidelines is going to creep back in on investors' fear that they might be left behind if something develops.

    The market is still very sensitive to news and can react swiftly is something negative hits, but we have had so much negative lately that it doesn't take much good news to bring in the buyers. With the Fed interest rate decision coming up next week, many may feel that now is not the time to try to fight the Fed.

    I'll be watching to see how well we hold, and if the bulls can hang in, I'll add some long exposure. I'm still holding very high levels of cash, but I'm looking for some opportunities on the long side.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HDL +26.1%, QTWW +17.5%, TLCV +15.3%, MBLX +11.7%, JASO +9.4%, JCG +5.6% (also upgraded to outperform at Raymond James), AEO +4.1%, DXCM +3.7%, TTWO +2.6%, CAT +2.3%, EXLS +1.9%, STLD +1.6%... Select European financial names showing strength: UBS +3.6%.... Other news: TWTI +40.8% (confirms HPV clinical trial achieves primary clinical endpoints), CRXX +20.9% (says drug candidate CRx-191 demonstrates 'positive' phase 2 results in psoriasis), DNDN +11.4% (FDA agrees to amend Special Protocol Assessment for Phase 3 IMPACT Study of PROVENGE), SIMO +7.9% (announces $40 mln stock repurchase program), FLDR +6.5% (announces a supply agreement with Lowe's), TASR +2.8% (announces United States Air Force Security Forces to deploy TASER X26 devices), CAM +2.7% (announces $650 mln contract for subsea equipment offshore West Africa), BHP +2.3%, RTP +2.2%, WWE +1.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: TMA +31.4% (upgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), DMND +4.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), ABH +2.3% (upgraded to Mkt Perform at BMO).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: DIVX -28.4% (also downgraded to Source of Fund at ThinkEquity and downgraded to Mkt Perform at Barrington), HUM -20.8%, DECC -11.4%, AMIE -10.5%, PED -8.7%, PSS -6.3%, VIP -5.0%, CODI -4.6%, ICFI -4.5%, XOMA -3.9%, SVNT -3.0%, AKRX -2.3%, ENZ -2.3%, GLBC -2.0%, IRETS -2.0%, GPOR -1.9%, AAON -1.4%... Health insurance names showing continued weakness following HUM's (-20.8%) warning: WCG -12.1%, CVH -8.7%, HNT -7.5% (also hearing removed from Conviction Buy list at tier 1 firm), UNH -6.6%, AET -6.2%, CI -3.9%... Other news: PGNX -48.3% (update on Phase III clinical trial of intravenous methylnaltrexone for postoperative ileus, treatment did not achieve the primary end point of the study), BLUD -24.1% (to acquire BioArray Solutions; expects this acquisition to be materially dilutive to EPS for several years), CPHD -9.7% (comments on study regarding MRSA surveillance and reaffirms guidance), DPM -3.9% (announces commencement of public offering of common units)... Analyst downgrades: PKOH -9.2% (downgraded to Hold at Morgan Joseph), KLAC -5.6% (downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer), SEH -3.7% (downgraded to Equal Weight at First Analysis), LVLT -3.0% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), UAUA -2.6% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), LCC -2.1% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan).
  • Pakuks tehnilise analüüsi poole pealt ka midagi. Sedapuhku Dick Armsi sule läbi RealMoney'st, kes toob välja Microsofti (MSFT) graafiku ja ütleb, et oleks valmis osa positsioonist täna ostma ning hiljem lisada, kui ülespoole liikumine jätkub:

     

  • VIPi pikaajalist teesi toetab ka Glitnir:

    The market set high expectations for VimpelCom in 4Q07, which would have been difficult to meet. We believe a minor selloff in the company’s stock is possible, but regardless view the results as indicative of positive underlying trends. The company is now trading at 2008e EV/EBITDA of 8.2x and P/E of 17.9x and gained 11% yesterday ahead of the results publication, climbing back to levels seen in the beginning of March.

  • USA nafta- ja gaasivarud kõvasti üle ootuste ... nafta hind tuleb alla hoogsalt
  • SIRFis võiks siis $5.78 pealt pikaks minna...
    Risk oportunistlik.
  • Madis,
    kas SIRF võiks lähiajal olla üleostetav kellegi suurema poolt?
  • rocket, see on selline teema, et nii järsult kukkunud aktsia kohta hakatakse alati ülevõttude teemal spekuleerima. Aga tegelikult ei oska ma siinkohal midagi tarka kosta. Ise seda väga ei usu, aga mine sa tea...

    Väga sisukas vastus, onju?
  • TMA esmaspäevase hinna pealt 0,7 USD täna üle 3 USD, tipp oli isegi 3,5 USD-d. Äkki oskab keegi kommenteerida veits? Järgmise aasta sihid väga kõrged seatud analüütikute poolt. Esmaspäeval anti downgrade, täna jälle upgrade
  • Ausalt öeldes ei oskagi väga kommenteerida seda. Tänane upgrade Bear Sternsi poolt tõstis soovituse nii-öelda neutraalse peale ja see tuleneb puhtalt Föderaalreservi eilsetest pingutustest finantssüsteemi likviidsuse suurendamisest, eelkõige kinnisvara turul veel, mis leevendas TMA ümber levima hakanud pankroti jutte, mis oleks investorid tühjade kätega jätnud. Aga saame näha, tänane likviidsus võib kuu aja pärast olla uuesti kadunud ja ettevõte uuesti samas punktis, kus mõned päevad tagasi. Seega isiklikult ei oska seisukohta võtta, seda enam, et sealsed suured liikumised on kohale meelitanud hulgaliselt momo-kauplejaid nagu mesi kärbseidki.
  • dollari langus on juba aastaga 17% ,proovi siis sellistes tingimustes kasumit teenida.Miks ei võiks eurooplased ameerikast eeskuju võtta.Kulutada,tarbida ja hiljem kui jäädki võlga ,kustutatakse võlad sest kui majanduskasv on nulli ligidal on katastroof tulekul.Täitsa segased need ameeriklased
  • Turul toimunud tõusuüritus müüdi alla ning päev lõpetatakse eeldatavalt languspoolel, kui just viimasel tunnil turg uut tõusuüritust ette ei võta.
    Languse eesotsas finantssektor ning S&P 500.
  • Toornafta futuurid on saavutanud jälle uued rekordid purustades $110 piiri ning jõudes välja $110.20 barrel tasemele.
  • Njah,
    SIGM prelim $0.80 vs $0.83 First Call consensus; revs $76.4 mln vs $75.49 mln First Call consensus
  • Esmapilgul tulemused "normaalsed", mis Sigma puhul pigem pettumuseks. Marginaalid oodatult languses, võinuks vähem. Ootame konverentsikõne ära, siis anname pikema kommentaari. Top-line siiski ok ning aktsia üsna alla müüdud. Vahepeal käidi ära ka -15% peal, kuid kõigest hoolimata muutub aktsia järjest odavamaks. Tean tean, see viimane teadmine suhu ei kõlba panna. :)
  • Sigma CC-l antud esimese kvartali prognoos on ühekordse kulu tõttu nõrk ($60 mln vs analüütikute oodatud $76) ning terve aasta guidance seepärast pigem analüütikute oodatud alumisse äärde. Aktsia kukkus prognoosi järel korraks -19% peale, hetkel -15%.
  • ja aktsia muutus veel odavamaks, kui enne...
  • Suure kliendi nõrkusest veel paraku pressikas juttu ei olnud.
  • FMD päeva lõpuks jälle tubli samm, -10,58% tagasi. Asi muutub aina huvitavamaks.
  • Toornafta futuurid kauplevad jälle uutel tippudel +0.4% $110.4 barrel tasemel.
  • Panin igaks juhuks paagi kõrini täis. Varsti vist tõstetakse jälle hinda :-(
  • nestes täna diisel juba 18,10 EEK/L

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