Börsipäev 20. märts
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Ka Sina, Credit Suisse? Roque traders jälle hoos
March 20 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse Group said in a statement on Thursday
* Says was profitable in 2008 through the end of February
* Says believes it is unlikely to be profitable in the first quarter
* Says market conditions difficult in March
* Says pricing errors were, in part, the result of intentional misconduct by a small number of traders
* Says to restructure some trading operations
* Says confident in ability to navigate current market conditions -
NYMEX toornafta futuurid kauplevad madalamal $100/barrel taset. Inverted market olukord hakkab stabiliseeruma, kuid ilmselt normaalse turu olukorra saavutamiseni läheb natuke veel aega.
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US dollar on tugevnenud 0.9% Euro vastu, siit ka korralik surve commoditi sektori suhtes.
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Seoses nõrga majanduse ja tõusvate kütusehindadega on UBS kärpimas lennundussektori soovitusi. Ostusoovitus langetatakse neutraalse peale Nortwest Airlines'i (NWA), US Airways'i (LCC), Continentali (CAL) ning Delta Air Lines'i (DAL) puhul, AMRi (AMR) soovitatakse müüa. LCC soovituse langetab neutraalsele tasemele ka Lehman.
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CROX on küll veel müügisurve all, kuid siit tasemelt lubab hind juba pikaks minna
natuke üle on pingutatud müügiga -
speedy, täiesti nõus. Rikkusid mu artikli mõtte ära. :)
Ise loodan, et CROX kukub veel ja saaks osta $15-16 vahelt ehk natuke veel ootan. -
loete usinasti notablecallsi? Nad on viimasel ajal jubedalt rappa pannud oma callidega...
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Jah, White Nigga, sellepärast mul mustand juba paar nädalat valmis ongi, et NC eile ja täna teisi maju refereeris. :)))
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ei rikkunud ju, kirjuta kirjuta
mulle jäi see eilsest NC-st silma
kuigi NC püüab lühiajalisi põrkeid ning nimetas seda hiljem "stupid call'ks", siis ma vaatan tema calle pigem pikemas perspektiivis
paistab, et mõni suurem kala väljumas ning sellest ka selline surve -
WN
mitte "nad", 1 mees peaks olema -
ja täna NC all uuesti
Baird is out positive on Crocs -
2 maja kaitsevad, nii et kyll mõnevõrra ikka põrkab. Ise ei puuduta, olen juba 40$ alates vaadanud ja jälginud ja tundub selline ära killitud aktsia a la NTRI olevat, loobusin pikaks minekust
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WN
sa vaatad vist lihtsalt charti
NTRI tuli alla, sest tal on fundamentaalsed probleemid
CROX tuli alla, sest ta oli ülehinnatud - business is intact, ta lihtsalt ei kasva nii kiiresti kui turg ootas. täna oleme aga teises äärmuses -
FedEx (FDX) reports Q3 (Feb) earnings of $1.26 per share, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of $1.22.
Eelmise aastaga võrreldes kasumis väga ei kaotatud, EPS langes kohandatud baasil $0.01 võrra (eelmise aasta EPS oli $1.35, aga sisaldas $0.08 ulatuses kasu väiksemast maksumäärast). Marginaalid jäid kvartali jooksul surve alla, langedes tänu kõrgematele kütusehindadele ja nõrgale majandusele. Selle taustal on eriti huvitav maikvartaliks (majandusaasta neljas kvartal) antud prognoos $1.60 - $1.80, mis analüütikute oodatud $1.95-le selgelt alla jääb (eelmisel aastal $1.96) või õigemini selle prognoosi sõnastus:
This outlook assumes no additional increases to current fuel prices and no further weakening in the economy.
Kui ühe eeldusega võiks isegi nõus olla, siis teine tundub ehk liialt julge. Aktsia eelturul -3.7%.
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SC - minu jaoks on CROCS fundamentaalseks probleemiks see et nad müüvad selliseid õudseid pastlaid millel ma ei näe tulevikku ;) AGA NAD ON JU MOES!! - fukit
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olin just nädala kaugel saarel ja nägin sealgi selliseid pastlaid inimeste jalgede otsas
nagu plätad vms vabaaja jalanõud
ning rasketel aegadel hea odav osta -
ja sa võiks ka nende kodulehele pilgu visata, need kotad millele sa vihjad, ei ole ainuksesed tooted
ma arvan, et sa isegi ostaks neilt midagi -
Ega nad vist nii väga odavad polegi, netis 30-50$ keskmiselt. Huvitav palju nad Stockmannis maxavad, seal pidavat myygis olema?
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no kust sa võtad et ma ei ole nende kodulehte põhjalikult uurinud??
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ok, maitse asi
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Meie jaoks tunduvad nad tõesti pastlad, aga iga korraga, kui olen Crocsi kodulehekülge külastanud, on need mulle järjest enam meeldima hakanud. Kuigi päris täpselt ei oska keegi öelda, kas tegu on trendi muutusega või ühekordse moeröögatusega, pidavat need välimusest hoolimata väga mugavad ja praktilised olema. Igal juhul püsib CROXi müügikasv endiselt kiire ja pettumus on tulenenud eelkõige liiga kõrgeks kruvitud ootustest.
Lisaks kasvavad kiiresti rahvusvahelise segmendi tulud, kus müük kasvas viimasel kvartalil 221% yoy, USAs oli sama näitaja 47%. Tänaseks on kahe segmendi tulud sisuliselt võrdsed ning Euroopa kiire kasvu tõttu prognoositakse rahvusvaheliste tulude mööda minemist. -
CROX on USAs vist rohkem lastejalanõu.
Alguses olid populaarsed, nüüd out of trend ja vaadatakse neile kui lastejalatsitele. -
Need Crocsi "kummiplätad" olid eelmisel suvel Soomes hullult populaarsed, tänavapildis jäi mulje et keegi on hõisanud loosungi "suve lõpuks igale soomlasele oma kummiplätad". Aga jah, kui esimest korda neid nägin siis ehmatasid küll natuke ära ja tekitasid "kastreeritud Põhjala kummiku" tunde...
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Lastejalatsid on need niikuinii ja 50aastased mehed neid tõesti ei kanna. Sellega ka nõus, et USAs pigem moest välja minemas (kuigi mitte päris kindel; oleneb ka, mis Crocs ise ette võtab), kuid praegune hinnatase on liiga madal ja põrget võiks püüda. Investeerimiseks leiab aga tõepoolest ka riskivabamaid kohti.
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kas müügikasv (ainult) 47% näitab, et kaup on moest välja minemas ?
kui kasv on aeglustumas võrreldes varasemate perioodidega, tahendab see ka turu küpsemasse ikka jõudmist
USA's on tänase seisuga 5000 poodi
ei olegi mõeldav, et turg lõpmatuseni sadades protsentides kasvab ning "out of fashion" on minu arust natuke ennatlik väide -
Turgude 2%lised kõikumised on saanud normiks ja määramatus on kahtlemata väga suur. Aasia ja Euroopa on USA eilse 2+%lise kukkumise järel kirjud:
Saksamaa DAX -1.20%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.13%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.29%
Hispaania IBEX -1.25%
Venemaa MICEX -2.98%
Poola WIG -1.14%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud)
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.47%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.13%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.54%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.46%
Tai Set -1.47%
India Sensex N/A (börs suletud)
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Be Leery of Bottom Calls and Bounces
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/20/2008 8:36 AM EDT
Men's arguments often prove nothing but their wishes. -- Charles Caleb Colton
As you consider this stock market it is very important to keep one very important thing in mind: the vast majority of Wall Street pundits and advisors who are offering you advice and insight are wishing for the market to go up. Not only are they hoping for it to go up, but they need it to go up or it is going to cost them a lot of money
One of the perverse things about traditional Wall Street is that big investors usually just hold on to the majority of their stocks in a bad market. For many big funds and institutions holding 20% or 30% in cash is considered to be lightly invested.
Of course these folks that always have more than half of the assets invested are going to be looking for reasons why this market is about to bottom out and turn higher. They have an agenda and the need the market to conform.
Does this tendency to be heavily invested at all times influence their thinking about the market? Without a doubt. The constant admonishments about how you have to be invested early or risk being left out because the turn is coming, and the anxious arguments about how the fundamentals really aren't that bad make the folks who are holding on to lots of stock feel better. But is it really good advice?
Most investors would be far better off if they would stop the game of trying to anticipate a bottom. To prove my point all you have to do is consider how many times in the recent months there have been proclamations that the worst is over, the bottom is in and we are ready to start sailing higher.
If you have bought into the hype, which is invariably offered up by someone who is already heavily long, you have lost money. In fact you would have lost money numerous times if you are listening to the pundits.
The best approach for individual investors is to forget the constant self-serving predictions that the worst is over and simply watch what the market does. When we have massive one-day rallies and then no follow through we need to stay skeptical rather than be hopeful. It is only when the market proves itself of capable of holding on to gains and to begin a new trend that we should be more trusting with our capital.
If you wait for proof that the market is healthier aren't you going to miss out on the early stages of a rally? Absolutely but you will have also missed out on being caught in numerous failed rallies. A good market will last months and will give you plenty of time to profits. If you avoid losing money when we are in a downtrend you will be so far ahead when the turn does come it won't matter that you are late to the party.
We have a slight bounce in the early going as defense of some of the groups there were pounded yesterday such as steel, gold and agriculture receive defense. I would be very careful trying to bottom fish these previous hot momentum groups because when momentum cools it is often a very long fall before real value buyers step up. The shorts are very likely to hit broken momentum stocks hard so be leery of bounces.
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Ülespoole avenevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BGP +14.9% (also said it is exploring strategic alternatives), IDMI +13.4%, PLCE +12.2%, IHS +4.4%, NKE +4.0%, PRGS +3.9%, MLHR +3.9%, HUM +3.3%, SCVL +3.0%, GES +1.7%, CRAI +1.1%, IPCM +1.0%... Select financial stocks modestly rebounding: NCC +5.5%, CFC +3.9%, ING +1.0%... Other news: XTLB +15.5% (signs $108 mln deal for the licensing of its pre- clinical program in Hepatitis C to Presidio Pharmaceuticals), SSRX +4.9% (approves share repurchase program of up to $20 mln), HOKU +4.1% (announces signing of polysilicon reactor supply contract for potential expansion), BSC +3.4% (JPMorgan moves to woo top Bear staff - FT), UN +3.1% (still checking), OSG +1.3% (FRO discloses 5.2% stake in 13D filing; sees the investment in OSG as a good value)... Analyst upgrades: FNM +5.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Keefe Bruyette), FRE +5.2% (upgraded to Outperform at Keefe Bruyette), RCII +3.4% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel), NFLX +4.7% (upgraded to Buy at Cantor), AUO +2.3% (initiated with Buy at Jefferies), TTEC +2.2% (upgraded to Outperform at Wachovia), GE +2.0% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill), DTV +1.8% (initiated with Buy at tier 1 firm), ATHR +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at ThinkEquity), RTIX +1.6% (initiated with Buy at Pacific Growth), X +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: WGO -17.4%, QUIX -13.3%, MDAS -12.2%, CS -7.8%, G -3.7%, PAL -3.7%, FDX -1.8%... Select metals/mining stocks showing weakness on a stronger dollar and continued weakness in spot prices: SLV -6.5%, GOLD -6.2%, DROOY -5.3%, BHP -4.2%, AUY -4.2%, AAUK -4.2%, KGC -4.0%, SLW -3.9%, AU -3.3%, ABX -3.0%, GG -2.8%, GLD -2.7%, RTP -2.7%, HMY -2.4%, MT -2.3%, GFI -2.3%, CDE -2.2%, AEM -1.9%... Select Chinese names trading lower following weakness in overseas trading: CEO -5.6%, KONG -5.3%, SNP -4.7%, JRJC -3.6%, CHA -3.4%, BIDU -2.0%, ACH -1.6%, PTR -1.4%... Select agriculture names showing weakness with continued sell-off in commodities: MOS -4.0%, POT -4.0%, CF -3.7%, AGU -2.5%, TNH -2.3%, TRA -1.6%... Other news: CIT -9.8% (showing continued weakness following yesterday's 14% decline), TWX -4.9% (still checking), CCU -4.4% (As deadline nears, confusion clouds CCU buyout - WSJ), RZ -2.5% (announces pricing of $50 million of convertible notes)... Analyst downgrades: SNDK -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), PNRA -2.5% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), APA -1.5% (downgraded to accumulate at boutique firm), TXN -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral at AmTech ), MMM -1.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill). -
Millega MF hakkama on saanud et kukub kui kivi???
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Heiti, kui usk on juba kõikuma löödud, siis pole midagi parata. Tõenäoliselt võime selliseid liikumisi veel mõnda aega näha.
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Oleme siin võlgu veel töötu abirahade taotlejate arvu, mis eelturul teatavaks tehti ja number oli oodatust koledam, mis võib järgmise tööjõuraporti numbreid taas miinuspoolele kallutada.
New claims for unemployment for the week ended March 15 rose to 378,000 from 356,000 the prior week. -
Punk Ziegeli analüütik Dick Bove on finantssektori osas positiivseks muutunud. Loodan ka ise sellest teemast varsti midagi konstruktiivsemat ja pisut pikemat kirjutist valmis saada.
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09:08 MF MF Global warning adds to market worries -- Telegraph.co.uk (9.36 )
One of London's leading brokers has demanded that clients put up significantly more cash to cover derivative positions - a move which traders fear could result in millions of shares being dumped on the market today. MF Global informed clients yesterday that the "margin" on contract for differences (CFDs) was increasing on certain stocks from 25pc to 90pc. The clients have been given until this morning to put up the extra cash or close positions. Traders fear that the move could increase market volatility as clients - unable to find the cash or transfer their investments to other brokers - are forced to close their positions. "You are going to see a lot of forced selling," said one leading London stockbroker. FTSE 250 stocks and stocks popular with small investors are expected to be hardest hit, with observers warning that other CFD providers - including IG Index and City Index - are also looking at increasing margins. The FTSE 250 was down in early trading today, along with the FTSE 100. CFDs allow investors to gain exposure to ?1,000 worth of shares, by putting up as little as ?100 of cash. Once the domain of financiers and corporate raiders, the controversial derivatives have in recent years been used increasingly by both private and professional investors. But an executive at a leading CFD broker warned yesterday that "the days of cheap finance for CFD investors are over"... A senior MF Global salesman told one client the company was finding it increasingly difficult to finance highly-leveraged positions. "We're freezing people out of anything but the FTSE 100," he said. MF Global, which is listed in New York, denied rumours about its liquidity. -
Dick Bove'i intervjuu ise siin.
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Feb Leading Indicators -0.3% vs -0.3% consensus; prior revised to -0.4% from -0.1%
Mar Philadelphia Fed factory index -17.4 vs -18.0 consensus, prior -24.0 -
10:03 CNBC commentator says "rumor" for Philly Fed was -33, so the actual -17.4 could be considered better than expected (even though it was in-line with consensus
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Avondale annab äsja börsil debuteerinud Visale (V) hinnasihiks $65.
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abesiki...
Tänud. Krt seda oskab öelda kas tegemist jälle "lühikeste" tellitud uudisega (stiilis: naised-kuskil-saunas-rääkisid-vist-midagi-sellist) või mingi reaalne taust ka taga... selliseid materdamisi viimasel ajal päris palju -
Finantssektori liikumist kajastav XLF on teinud viimaste päevade uue tipu...
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ehitajate XHB pole kah laita... kõigest +9% :))
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Head kõditamist/värvimist ning koksimist! :)
