Börsipäev 26. märts
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Viimastel päevadel on olnud üha enam kuulda, et 2008. aasta 1. kvartal on varsti läbi saamas ning et turu tõusu võib seostada ka window dressinguga. Ausalt öeldes ei oska seda väga kommenteerida. Närvilisus on jätkuvalt väga suur, seda enam, et paljud indeksid seisavad ka tehniliselt olulistel tasemetel, olles kohati peaaegu lühiajalistest langustrendidest läbi murdnud ja kohati jälle mitte. Eilne väga nõrk tarbijausaldusnumber võeti turu poolt kokkuvõttes hästi vastu, aga vaatame, kuidas tänaste kestvuskaupade tellimuste ja uute majade müüginumbritele reageeritakse.
Aasia turud on praegu öösel miinuses ja ka USA on allapoole tiksunud, S&P500 futuur hetkel -0.33%. -
Bloombergi kohaselt on maailma suurim ettevõte taas Exxon, kuna PetroChina kukkumine viiendat päeva järjest on langetanud viimase turuväärtuse $453.1 miljardini. PetroChina aktsia on peale IPOt langenud 58%, samal ajal Exxoni turuväärtus on nafta hindade najal tõusnud aasta jooksul 13% tänase $455.8 miljardini.
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Mida LHV ootab majade müügi osas? Pakuks, et langeb veel 575-580K piirimaile... see lõpetaks ka praeguse enam vähem positiivse meeleolu.
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Kõige levinumate prognooside kohaselt jääb number 570-580K vahele ning väga negatiivset reakstiooni ei oska nende numbrite peale oodata. Samas on viimasel ajal tõusnud lootused olukorra paranemiseks, seega eeltoodust halvem tulemus avaldaks juba tugevamat survet.
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Euroopa aktsiaturgude jaoks oluline IFO indeks taas kord üle ootuste
The headline Ifo index rose to 104.8 in March from February's 104.1 and against a consensus forecast for a fall to 103.4. The strong reading poured cold water on any expectations for near-term euro zone interest rate cuts.
"This is the third consecutive month that the Ifo has come out on the strong side of expectations," said Audrey Childe Freeman, European economist at CIBC World Markets.
"It sort of backs up a continued decoupling story for Germany and the euro zone as a whole," she said, adding that it also backed up views that the ECB would not cut rates anytime soon. -
Panen ka uute majade müügi graafiku siia.
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Tere! Kas põhjamaade turgude info edastusega on migeid probleeme?
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tracker, mul sama küsimus.
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Kuhu see uute majade müüginumber esimesena ilmub ehk kust saab kõige operatiivsemat infot?
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Tänud tähelepanu juhtimise eest, probleemi lahendamisega tegeletakse.
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Meredith Whitney Oppenheimerist, kes on Citigroupi (C) osas ikka väga karuselt olnud meelestatud, on täna oma prognoose langetamas. 2008. aastalt ootab ta nüüd EPSi -0.15, varasema +0.75 asemel. 1. kvartalilt prognoosib Whitney, et näeme Citit maha kirjutamas gigantse $13.1 miljardilise summa. Võrdluseks siia, et tänane turu konsensusootus 2008. aastalt on Citile EPSi osas +$1.94.
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heikip, tasulistest infokanalitest jooksevad need numbrid läbi sekundite jooksul. Aga algallikas ise siin... Hetkel viimane press release seal on eelmise kuu kohta siis.
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Henno poolt pisut eespool kirjeldatud uudis on ka euro tugevuse taga, mis on dollari vastu täna tõusnud +0.8% 1.5735 tasemele.
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Joel, selle 26/03/08 12:45 posti kommentaariks kopeerin siia Sinu enda postitatud Meredith Whitney arvamused 17. märtsist, tasub tähele panna, et Meredithi arvamus on ennegi väga paikapidav olnud :)
Oppenheimer analyst Whitney on CNBC says JPM was the only bank on the street that had the flexibility to do this deal (4.88 -25.14). Says there are people in denial that are holding onto the stock, or they are holding onto the idea that a white night comes in, but she advises shareholders to sell as there is nobody else that is going to come in here.
Lehman Brothers: Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney also says that to suggest that Lehman is going to go out of business is a real stretch (31.21 -8.05). -
Motorola on võtmas tõsiseid samme ette, et ettevõtte nimi maailma areenile veel tagasi tuleks. 2009. aastaks võib olla ettevõtte jagunenud kahte eraldi ossa. Aktsia eelturul +6%.
Motorola commences process to create two independent companies (9.76 ) : Co announces that its Board of Directors has commenced a process to create two independent, publicly-traded companies. Today's decision follows the co's January 31, 2008 announced evaluation of the structural and strategic realignment of its businesses and represents affirmative steps to position its Mobile Devices and Broadband & Mobility Solutions businesses for success, while creating value for all Motorola shareholders. Based on current plans, the creation of the two stand-alone businesses is expected to take the form of a tax-free distribution to Motorola's shareholders, subject to further financial, tax and legal analysis, resulting in shareholders holding shares of two independent and publicly-traded cos. The co expects that the separation of its businesses, if consummated, would take place in 2009. The co will host a conference call today March 26, beginning at 8:30ET. -
Ford on müümas Jaguari ja Land Roverit 2.3 mld USD eest Tata Motorsile. Paistab, et India odavate autode tootja astub tulevikus Detroidi kolmikule valusasti kandadele.
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LHV foorumlastele hästi tuntud Jim Cramer on kergitamas TheStreet.com aktsiat :)
TheStreet.com: Cramer likely to renew multi-year contract, providing a strong catalyst - Merriman (8.41 )
Merriman believes that Cramer is likely to renew a multi-year contract with TSCM, providing a strong catalyst for the stock. Cramer's last contract lasted from August 2005 through Dec 2007 and was extended a few times with an expiration on April 15, 2008. In the next couple of weeks, they believe that the contract will be renewed, potentially removing a significant overhang on the stock. At 10x EV/EBITDA, we believe that TheStreet.com is among the most attractive small cap online media names with upside potential of 50-100% over the next 12 months. -
Tapame positivismi:
February Durable Goods Orders ex-trans -2.6% vs -0.3% consensus, prior -1.6%
February Durable Goods Orders -1.7% vs +0.7% consensus, prior -5.3% -
Nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft isegi olulisem kui durable ex-transport.
-2,6% vs -0,10% consensus -
Saksamaa DAX -0.26%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.42%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.58%
Hispaania IBEX -0.62%
Venemaa MICEX +0.16%
Poola WIG +0.06%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.30%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.68%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.63%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.30%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.03%
Tai Set -0.33%
India Sensex -0.81%
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No Faith in Citigroup
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
3/26/2008 7:29 AM EDT
As always, it is Citigroup (C). My smartest guys tell me that Citigroup has billions in assets it can sell, that there is ample opportunity for the company to reliquify, that Vikram Pandit has things under control and the slow bleed cuts are going to work to get costs down.
Now I have total confidence in Treasury, particularly in Bob Steel, to take care of the shorts and to create brilliant shotgun marriages that reward the rich banks and punish the poor.
BUT, I have no faith in Citigroup, which because of the moronic acquisitions and bizarre off-balance-sheet liabilities may technically be insolvent. When you consider it is too big to fail, you have to begin to wonder -- what's the plan if it can't make it? How far can forbearance go? Will we tolerate this bank being majority-owned by the sheiks or the communist Chinese? Seems far-fetched, but when I read Meredith Whitney's words this morning over at OPCO I know that the losses are going to be too big for the current base of capital.
This note could not have come at a worse time, because now that Bear (BSC) is done, the shorts are going to refocus their prey, and I was hoping it was going to be on Washington Mutual (WM), which can be swallowed by Wells Fargo (WFC) or HSBC (HBC), and not Citigroup, which cannot be swallowed by anyone without choking.
Here's the thing: After the criticism that I have received for saying that it was safe to keep your money at Bear but not to own the stock, maybe I should say it is unsafe to have either when it comes to Citigroup, so I can be irresponsible on the deposit side so I don't confuse those who believe that I say the equity is safe.
When it comes to Citigroup, I simply think there are a thousand financials that I would rather own than this one and it remains my favorite short in this group after its pathetic run-up.
Random musings: We are overbought, tomorrow morning is the end of markup season. Take things off.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ZVUE +19.6%, CSUN +5.5%, PFSW +4.4%, AEHR +4.4%, VVTV +2.5%, AUY +1.4%... Select metals/mining stocks showing strength with higher spot prices: GOLD +4.6%, HL +4.3%, HMY +3.8%, AA +3.5%, AAUK +3.5%, PAL +3.0%, MT +2.9%, DROOY +2.4%, LMC +2.2%, RTP +2.0%, AU +1.5%, GFI +1.2%, BHP +1.1%... Other news: CLWR +26.8% (WSJ reports CMCSA and TWX are discussing a plan to provide funding for a new wireless co that would be operated by Sprint and CLWR), MOT +12.5% (commences process to create two independent companies), RAS +9.7% (declares quarterly dividend of $0.46; based on this quarterly dividend, the yield for the year is 26.5%), S +9.0% (WSJ reports CMCSA and TWX are discussing a plan to provide funding for a new wireless co that would be operated by Sprint and CLWR), OPWV +6.5% (still checking), WATG +4.6% (wins first supply contract from North American OEM automotive manufacturer; exceed $13.5 mln over 4 yrs), ARTC +3.7% (announces that it has been notified by NASDAQ that its review of DiscoCare has been closed), RIO +3.0% (discontinues negotiations for the acquisition of Xstrata), AKNS +1.7% (up in sympathy with CSUN), TXT +1.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: ICO +5.0% (upgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), TLM +4.1% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), WAT +2.5% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), JASO +2.2% (named Best Pick in Solar PV space at ThinkEquity).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: JBL -14.8% (also downgraded by multiple analysts), MGI -12.0%, CHIC -10.4%, SEED -5.2%, SAI -2.5%, PBY -2.4%, DMND -1.2%, GY -1.2%... Select drug names showing weakness following WSJ report that overseas drugs hit US regulatory snags: AZN -1.7%, GSK -1.6%, TEVA -1.0%, NVS -1.0%... Select financial names showing weakness: MF -3.4%, NCC -3.3%, C -2.6% (estimates cut at Oppenheimer), CIT -2.2%, DB -2.1% (says market woes could hit 2008 profit targets), MS -2.1% (shelves sale of CICC stake - FT), LEH -2.0%, WB -1.8% (estimates cut at Oppenheimer), RBS -1.5%, HBC -1.4%, UBS -1.1%... Other news: CCU -23.2% (deal near collapse, sources say - WSJ), LFC -4.3% (still checking), BCE -2.9% (still checking), CORS -2.9% (stands at a precipice in condo bust - WSJ), AMR -1.3% (equipment issues force American Airlines to cancel number of flights - Chicago Tribune), HCP -1.3% (to offer 12.5 mln shares to index investors)... Analyst downgrades: AYR -2.4% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), PFCB -2.2% (downgraded to Underperform at Friedman Billings), CPKI -2.0% (initiated with Sell at Wedbush), CMA -2.0% (added to Conviction Sell List at tier 1 firm), ELN -1.7% (downgraded with Sell at Canaccord), HCBK -1.4% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Friedman Billings), AF -1.0% (downgraded to Underperform at Friedman Billings). -
USO lühikese positsioonide omanikele tehti täna hommikul nn short squeez ja seda Regulation SHO alusel, mis ütleb: Clearing agency participants and broker-dealers for which they clear positions (“participants”) must take immediate action to close out a fail to deliver position in a Threshold Security that has lasted for 13 consecutive settlement days by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity (“close-out requirement”)
LHV kliente, kes olid USO-s lühikesed investeerimiskonto vahendusel see ei puuduta. -
Mõnevõrra negatiivne durable goods data on huvitavalt teravas kontrastis hommikus IFO indeksi positiivsusega. Kui on mainitud decoupling´t USA-st, siis ikka on mõeldud mõnda emerging markets regiooni või Hiinat. Saksamaa (EZ) decoupling USAst on IMO kuidagi loogilisem (ja nüüd ehk ka järjest ilmselgem). EZ ikkagi USA oluline kaubanduspartner (kuigi mõne areneva turu riigi või Hiina jaoks mõju suurem).
Pärast durable goods datat näitavad intressifutuurid suuremat tõenäosust 50 bps cutiks. USD muutub päris heaks carry paariks ;) -
February New Home Sales 590K vs 580K consensus, -1.8% m/m; prior revised to 601K from 588K
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kristjani lemmikkangelasi, "Hank" Paulson on jälle säravaid mõtteid avaldanud
NB! eriti järgmised väited:
10:16 Paulson says housing still biggest risk to U.S. Economy
10:16 Paulson says must let housing market correct, limit impact on economy
ja kõik öeldu järjekorras
10:16 Paulson says non-bank discount-window use for periods of 'turmoil'
10:16 Paulson says housing still biggest risk to U.S. Economy
10:16 Paulson says must let housing market correct, limit impact on economy
10:16 Paulson says Fed should 'protect its balance sheet, taxpayers'
10:16 Paulson says 'great confidence' in capital markets recovery
10:16 Paulson says supports Fed lending to primary dealers
10:16 Paulson says Bear Stearns 'found itself facing bankruptcy'
10:15 Paulson says mortgage market 'still facing liquidity' -
Moodyś on kärpinud Beazer Homes reitingut ning võimalik ka edaspidine kärbe. Sama tehti Hovnanian Enterp. puhul ning väljavaated jäeti negatiivseteks.
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Henno, see oli hea jah, ise ka muigasin.
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BZH ja HOV on juba nii lühikeseks müüdud et enam ei lase seda teha ka, eile juba ei lasknud
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Alati jääb alternatiiviks kasutada put optsioone kuigi volatiilsus on suur ning tuleks hoolikalt kaaluda oma strateegiat enne ostmise kallale asumist.
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Lisaks sellele, et sellisest lumest läbimurdmiseks auto oluliselt rohkem kütust rüüpab, on nafta 'taas rõõmustamas' auto omanikke. Barrel $105 ehk +4%. Rõhub negatiivselt ka turule.
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ohaqw on nagu truu koer, kes kondi peremehele tagasi toob
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Eriti ei midagi uut, aga...huvitava koha joonisin siiski alla:
Fed's Evans says labor market 'weakened substantially' in February
Fed's Evans says Rising Net Exports Are Bright Spot For US Economy
Fed's Evans sees 'little or no' economic growth in recent months
Fed's Evans says inflation to moderate over next two years
Fed Evans says Must Ensure Financial Markets Function Correctly
Fed's Evans says policy 'accommadative' should support growth
Fed's Evans Sees GDP Weakness In 1H '08, Improvement 2H
Fed's Evans says fiscal stimulus package to impact 2Q, 3Q
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BSC - mis toimub jälle? Millest selline hüpe äkki?
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Hetkel ei paista küll mingit uudist kusagilt ja BSC-t on tõesti parem eemale hoida, kuna spekulatiivset raha nii palju sees ning risk väga suur.
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Kas keegi näeb, mis RMBSi nii võimsalt üles veab?
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14:59 RMBS Rambus gains as much as $6 following headline that the co won its final phase of Hynix patent infringement lawsuit; stock is now ~1.50 off highs (24.51 +5.93) -Update-
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Briefingust: 14:53 RMBS Rambus wins final phase of Hynix patent infringement lawsuit - Bloomberg
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tehke briefing.com Trader endale ja saate palju vastuseid ..miks miski liigub
RMBS Rambus wins final phase of Hynix patent infringement lawsuit - Bloomberg -
RMBS - Rambus wins final phase of Hynix patent infringement lawsuit. Aktsia üle 31% tõusus.
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BSC puhul tuli kõva ostukäive taha ja eks see pani spekulandid elavnema.
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BSC liikumise taga järgnev uudis: BSC Bear Stearns: US Sen Dodd:Bear Stearns-JPM Deal Raises "Serious" Questions - DJ
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Bloomberg reports that analysts predict that RMBS's shares might double if it wins (and would be first step toward the co's collection of royalties of $700 mln to $11.7 bln) the case or fall by more than half if it loses.
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Tehnoloogiasektoril ootused kõrgel peale turge avaldatavate Oracle (ORCL) tulemuste ootuses. Viimati suudeti $0.04 konsensuse ootusi ületada.
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Over the past half hour BSC surged more than a dollar on very heavy volume, with no concrete news initially out on the stock.
Kuulujuttude kohaselt on tõus seotud Senati istungiga JPM/BSC ülevõtu kohta - Briefingu andmetel.
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AlariÜ ja Sten Sonts... tänud!
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Henno, sul jäi välja:
10.17 Wendy Paulson says: "He had that snake look in his eyes" -
Sama 2004 artikli lõpust: "Paulson says that he feels "great responsibility for my mission here," and that he intends to stay at Goldman for a long while. "But," he adds, "whenever I do finish here, I have no doubt that I'll do something with the environment." That will be a sweet moment: The wannabe forest ranger gets his dream job.
Nüüd on see aeg siis käes :-)
