Börsipäev 1. aprill
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Lisaks automüüginubritele avaldatakse täna ISM indeksi näit, millelt oodatakse langust 47.5 juurde. See on 5 aasta madalaim tase ning viitab selgelt tööstuse kahanemisele. Tarbija nõrkuse taustal võiks ISM indeks kukkuda veelgi madalamale, kuid vähemalt eksport suudab majanduse eeldatavat nullkasvu leevendada.
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Madis
Anna andeks, aga mina seda ei usu :) -
marct, et siis siga lendab või? Võib-olla küll...
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meeldetuletus eilsest :)
Chicago PMI 48.2 vs 46.7 consensus, prior 44.5
The Chicago PMI index, which is released on the last business day of the month (with data for the same month), has an impressive 91% correlation with the national ISM. -
just nimelt.....hommikust peale juba :)
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ZURICH, Switzerland (AP) -- Swiss bank UBS AG said Tuesday it expected to post first quarter net losses of 12 billion Swiss francs (US$12.1 billion) and would seek 15 billion Swiss francs (US$15.1 billion) in new capital.
naljapäeval tõsine hommik -
Henno, iseasi on, et "konsensus" seda juba teab. Nüüd jääb üle ainult nuputada, millal Bloomberg oma küsitluse tegi.
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UBS aktsia on +6% ... kardeti vist veel hullemat :)
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Wimm-Bill-Dannist (WBD) oleme foorumites ikka juttu teinud ning ei pääse mööda ka täna. Ettevõtte võimalusterohket tulevikku on märganud ka Merrill Lynch, kes annab WBD-le ostusoovituse.
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Uus Altria (MO) saab oma esimese reitingualanduse:
Altria downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanely.
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Banks and Brokers: More charges ahead - Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank says large banks took about $210 bln of losses in the past 3 quarter and they est another $50 bln in 1H08 among big banks and brokers. Firm's increased confidence stems from an acceleration in home price declines, lower indices and possibly newer issues with monolines, such as problems with insurance on home equity securitizations. Firm lowered ests on MER and LEH. Given likely higher consumer credit losses, firm is yet again lowering estimates for banks, including NCC, STI, Fifth Third and KEY. Firm says the root cause of the problems has been housing, which is not getting better. Firm says the bottom line is that credit problems have spilled over to additional areas which, in turn, gives them added confidence in their write-down ests that they have published for the past half year.
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Suured majad on vist täna mingi ühise aktsiooni korraldanud, erinevaid finantssektori nägemusi ja ettevõtete kasumiprognooside muutmisi tuleb uksest ja aknast. Järjekordne näide Briefingust, ideid peaks piisavalt leiduma:
Morgan Stanley initiates coverage of Mid-cap bank sector Morgan Stanley initiates coverage of Mid-cap bank sector. The firm initiates CFR, SIVB, HCBK, NAL, PBCT, and UB with Overweights. ASBC, BOH, BOKF, CYN, CMA, TCB, UCBH, VLY, WFSL, CBSH, EWBC, MI, NYB, RSP, SOV, WBS, WABC, and ZION initiated with Equal Weight. The firm also initiates CNB, FHN, SNV, HBAN, MTB, and TSFG with Underweights.
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Yahoo (YHOO) on eelturul kauplemas 2.7% võrra madalamal WSJ uudise tõttu, mille kohaselt ei ole Microsoftil (MSFT) plaanis pakkumise hinda tõsta:
Microsoft unlikely to raise Yahoo offer - WSJ : The Wall Street Journal reports Microsoft (MSFT) has no plans to raise its bid for Yahoo (YHOO), people close to the co say. Microsoft's strategists believe that time is on their side, the people close to the co say. -
Saksamaa DAX +1.81%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.85%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.27%
Hispaania IBEX +1.46%
Venemaa MICEX +0.74%
Poola WIG +0.52%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.04%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.26%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -4.13%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -4.89%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.15%
Tai Set +0.77%
India Sensex -0.11%
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Hope Is Still the Main Catalyst
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/1/2008 8:47 AM EDT
The trouble with most people is that they think with their hopes or fears or wishes rather than with their minds.
--Will Durant
There is hope in the air as we kick off the second quarter of 2008. The news flow has been so poor and the market action has been so dismal so far this year that a little hope has to emerge at some point to provide a little relief. Markets, even ones as bad as this one has been, don't simply go straight down.
Although the mood is a bit more upbeat this morning, which is often the case when we start a new month, the market is still in very troubling shape. We seem to have gotten gloomy and negative enough to support some sort of relief bounce but we have a tremendous amount of work to do before the longer-term picture will begin to improve.
The very light volume and poor mood is the sort of action you'd expect to see as we are scraping along the bottom, but it would be foolish to let hope drive us to believe that we won't have more problems to come at some point.
Like many others, I'm finding this market extremely difficult to deal with. The very light volume and the random volatility makes building positions extremely hard. Even the tendency to have little selloffs into the close and then strong opens the next morning makes trying to develop a workable strategy almost impossible.
My game plan at this point remains much the same. I see no reason to conclude that the overall downtrend is ending so I am unable to build longer term positions. On the other hand, we are setup well for some bounces and counter-trend rallies as things have gotten gloomy and the level of indifference high.
I'd much rather build some positions I can hold for months but I see nothing to support such a move at this time. With earnings season coming up, such an approach is even more questionable. So that leaves us with nothing more than a lot of patience and a short-term time frame.
I really would love to sound the all clear and proclaim like many others that we should be jumping into this market with both feet. However to do so would simply be allowing hope to dictate over the clear technical patterns that still require caution.
We have some upside action to start the day and maybe that will attract some buyers who are anxious to do something, but if you aren't keeping time frames short you haven't been paying attention.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CDS +7.6%, SPIR +4.2%, GSI +3.6%, OXM +1.3%... M&A news: CAO +18.2% (to be acquired by O'Reilly for $11.00 of O'Reilly common stock plus $1.00 in cash)... Select financial names showing strength with a number of news items out: UBS +8.1% (co releases financial update, seeks fresh capital and expects $19 bln in write-downs; chairman will depart; also upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), BCS +5.0%, RBS +4.1%, LEH +3.6% (to offer 3 mln shares of convertible preferred stock; analyst commentary on offering is generally positive), WM +3.5%, WFC +3.1%, DB +2.9% (faces write-downs of about $3.95 bln), WB +2.8%, MER +1.9%, MS +1.9%, DB +1.8%, C +1.8%... Other news: TMA +35.5% (raised $1.35 bln through private placement of senior subordinated secured notes and warrants), CEGE +34.9% (Cell Genesys and Takeda announce global alliance for the development and commercialization of GVAX immunotherapy for prostate cancer), IMH +18.1% (announces the co has settled a majority of repurchase liabilities), ATN +4.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), VVUS +4.5% (completes special protocol assessment for Phase 3 efficacy studies and reaches agreement with FTA on the studies), NOK +3.8% (still checking), MOT +2.5% (Videocon to bid for Motorola's global mobile business, Chairman says - DJ), SRDX +2.3% (announces first human use of SynBiosys biodegradable polymer on cardiomind drug-eluting stent), STP +2.0% (Nitol Solar and Suntech expand Polysilicon supply agreement), DELL +1.4% (undertaking a strategic assessment of ownership alternatives for its Dell Financial Services financing activities), CYTK +1.2% (announces CK-1827452 demonstrates increase in left ventricular function with no increase in myocardial oxygen consumption in canine model), BAP +1.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: HANS +4.8% (upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm), PIR +4.5% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank and initiated with a Buy at Jesup and Lamont), BWLD +4.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Keefe Bruyette), AKAM +3.6% (upgraded to Buy at Piper), AZN +3.5% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), ANSS +3.0% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), ATHR +2.8% (upgraded to Overwt at Weisel), VMW +2.8% (upgraded to Outperform at Wachovia), WBD +2.6% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: GBN -7.1%, BUF -6.4%, PCL -4.2%, RMG -4.1%, KRY -3.1%, TISI -3.1%, CNO -2.9%, APWR -1.0%... Select metals/mining stocks showing weakness with lower spot prices on strength in the dollar: PAL -5.3%, KGC -4.1%, HMY -3.5%, GOLD -3.1%, HL -3.0%, AU -2.8%, CDE -2.7%, ABX -2.5%, GLD -2.4%, SLV -2.4%, GFI -2.3%, MT -2.0%, RTP -1.8%, NEM -1.8% (Newmont Indonesia offers to sell 7% to govt - Reuters.com)... Other news: TMY -9.0% (terminates merger agreement), KFN -4.4% (announces proposed common share offering of 20 mln common shares; also downgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), ANR -4.0% (announces launch of capital markets transactions), YHOO -2.5% (Microsoft unlikely to raise Yahoo offer - WSJ)... Analyst downgrades: AVCT -5.3% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), HPT -4.5% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wachovia), MO -3.6% (downgraded to Equal Wt at Morgan Stanley). -
March ISM Manufacturing 48.6 vs 47.5 consensus
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Hennol õigus: March ISM Manufacturing 48.6 vs 47.5 consensus
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February Construction Spendiing -0.3% vs -1.0% consensus; prior month revised to -1.0% from -1.7%
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ISM Index does have some red flags as new orders decline to 46.5 from 49.1 and prices paid jumped to 83.5 from 75.5
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Deutsche Bank on koondanud tabelisse maailma indeksite liikumise ning aasta algusest ehk viimase kolme kuu jooksul on kõige rohkem kukkunud Türgi:
Türgi suure languse taga peituvatest põhjustest saab natuke aimu eilsest Marketwatchi artiklist.
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gold call võiks 100% teha mõne päevaga nagu nädal tagasi
sees 45 ga aprill 50 -
Ford Motor (F) teatas märtsi Põhja Ameerika müügi -14% langusest vs. -9.7% Street konsensuse ootustele.
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Fitch downgrades UBS to 'AA-"; outlook remains negative- Bloomberg
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Paistab, et täna ei kõiguta turgude rallit ülespoole mitte, kui miski. Finantssektor on saanud täna tugevalt downgrade ning teatanud uutest mahukatest mahakannetest. Automüüjad teatasid kehvalt alanud aastast, kus prognoosid jäid Ford, Porshe ja Mercedes puhul analüütikute ootustele alla, kuid turg rühib edasi.
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Samas iga börside juures olev inimene teab, et tavaliselt on halbadele uudistele ralliga reageerimine vähemalt lühiajaliselt põhja märk.
Nii karused kui me ka olla ei tahaks... -
Viimased makroandmed on olnud enam vähem in-line, pangad suht allamüüdud, kuid ega siis probleemid kadunud pole ja kindlasti tuleb veel luukeresid välja, kahtlemata huvitavad ajad veel ees.
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General Motorsil (GM) kukkus märtsi Põhja Ameerika automüük -13% vs. -5.5% konsensus, isegi Honda jäi ootustele alla.
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Ford Motor Co. (F), the third largest U.S. automaker, said Tuesday that its March U.S. vehicle sales dropped 14.3% from a year ago, hurt by weaker sales of trucks and sport utility vehicles.
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GM-il on kukkumine just light vehicle segmendis. Esialgsel vaatlusel suutis Hyndai kasvatada 2% müüki, ülejäänud kõik andsid ostjate puudusel tagasi.
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äkki oskab keegi öelda kuidas sellisel turul raha teenida? SPY ja QQQQ teevad huge ralli ..aga mite kui midagi ei tööta ja mitte midagi pole. Millega ja kuidas teenida?
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Osta QLD :)
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gold call siis eilse 0.45 pealt täna 1.4 juba
