Börsipäev 4. aprill
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Tänaseks turuliigutajaks USAs saab kindlasti olema tööjõutururaport. Erinevate hinnangute kohaselt väheneb töökohtade arv väljaspool põllumajandust 40000 - 70000 võrra. Kuigi 12 kuu keskmine püsib veel positiivsel poolel, ollakse üsna teravalt liikumas allapoole. Töötuse määralt oodatakse tõusmist veebruari 4.8% pealt 5%-ni märtsis.
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FT.com kirjutas täna intrigeeriva loo sellest, et Citigroupi ärimudeli arhitekt ja ühinemiste looja John Reed nimetab 10 aastat tagasi tehtut suureks veaks. 1998 aasta aprilli tekitati ülevõtmiste ja ühinemiste teel globaalne äri, mis pakub jaepanganduse, kindlustuse, äri- ja investeerimispanganduse teenuseid. Reed loodab, et tänane uus CEO Vikam Pandit võtab ette firma spinn-offid. Sarnasel teemal ka tänane päevateema UBS tükeldamisest.
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Oppenheimeri kokkuvõte Saksamaal toimuvast päikeseenergia konverentsist:
Oppenheimer attended the PHOTON Technology Show 2008 in Germany. Firm says that though the tone was generally upbeat, the outlook for 2009 remains unclear as polysilicon supply and regulatory issues are near-term overhangs. Polysilicon supply was the major concern at the conference, as raw material costs are muting growth and profitability prospects for the sector in 2008. Though increased poly supply and more rational pricing would be a positive catalyst for the sector, investors are very concerned about the potential for an oversupply. Germany, Spain, and the U.S. all plan to revise government subsidies exiting 2008. Because 2009 subsidy levels are relatively unknown, module and cell vendors may be subject to greater pricing pressure than expected if demand slows.
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WSJ edastab jällegi MSFT-YHOO ühinemise kohta kuulujutte. Nimelt olevat kahe firma vahelised mitteametlikud läbirääkimised endiselt patiseisus - Microsoft ei ole nõus oma pakkumise hinda tõstma ja ilma selleta ei ole Yahoo juhtkond valmis alustama ametlike läbirääkimistega. Yahoo aktsia on eelturul langenud 2.5% võrra.
The Wall Street Journal reports Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo (YHOO) senior executives met this week to discuss Microsoft's proposal to acquire Yahoo but failed to resolve any of their differences, according to people familiar with the matter. The meeting, which took place near Yahoo headquarters, was the second between top executives from the two companies in recent weeks. Neither meeting included bankers. The Microsoft executives showed no willingness to raise their cash-and-stock offer, and the Yahoo camp continued to refuse to enter formal negotiations without a sweetened bid, people familiar with the matter say. -
Töötuse määr oodatust kõrgem ning töökohtade arv kahanes prognoositust kiiremini:
March Unemployment Rate 5.1% vs 5.0% consensus
March Nonfarm Payrolls -80K vs -50K consensus, prior revised to -76K from -63K
March Average Weekly Hours 33.8 vs 33.7 consensus
March Manufacturing Payrolls -48K vs -35K consensus, prior revised to -46K from -52K
March Average Hourly Earnings m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% consensus
March Average Hourly Earnings y/y 3.6% vs 3.6% consensus
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Ja turud reageerivad korraks jõnksuga allapoole ja siis silmaklapid peas sinistesse toonidesse tagasi. Ei tea kas Free-falling Friday (Nagu Joel Kukemelk kunagi tabavalt ütles) jääb täna ära või hakkavad päeva keskel siiski kõhklused turgu painama
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Fed Funds Implied Probability futures giving a 32% chance for a 50 basis point cut at April 30 meeting, up from 20% prior to the March jobs report.
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JP Morgan Chase: Hearing Deutsche adds JPM to sell list.
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Saksamaa DAX +0.36%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.12%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.70%
Hispaania IBEX +0.42%
Venemaa MICEX +0.18%
Poola WIG +0.23%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.72%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng N/A (turud suletud)
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (turud suletud)
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (turud suletud)
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.12%
Tai Set -0.23%
India Sensex -3.09%
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Mild Reaction Is a Positive
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/4/2008 8:46 AM EDT
The job's numbers are certainly worse than expected, and we have had big revisions downward for January and February, but the market reaction isn't severe at all considering how much we were up before the numbers hit.
Overall, the market does not seem that concerned about the numbers at the moment. They certainly seem to indicate that we are falling into a recession, but the only ones who aren't already talking about that are the government officials who think they have to put a positive spin on things to keep the mood upbeat.
We'll see how things progress, but the rather mild reaction to bad numbers is a positive, and if we don't see more selling pressure, that is going to scare shorts and drag in more sidelined cash.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: REST +23.1%, BTH +14.0%, MOS +7.2%, WSCI +5.6%, SABA +1.9%... Select fertilizer/agriculture stocks showing strength following MOS earnings: SEED +5.9%, AGU +4.9%, TRA +3.8%, CF +3.2%, MON +2.6%, POT +2.3%... Other news: COCO +6.7% (still checking), DNDN +6.1% (still checking), LDK +5.3% (signs two additional wafer supply agreements and one polysilicon sourcing agreement), OMEX +5.0% (Spain's claim to one of Odyssey's shipwreck cases dismissed), USU +4.6% (showing continued upward momentum following yesterday's 30% surge), SHPGY +3.6% (up in sympathy with AZN and GSK), AZN +3.5% (extended the week's gains after the co said it will stop a trial of its cholesterol blockbuster drug Crestor early due to positive preliminary results), UBS +3.4% (former president pushes for a breakup - WSJ), ZOLL +3.1% (will replace TGIC in the S&P SmallCap 600 after the close on 4/7), CPL +2.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), ING +2.5% (still checking), GSK +2.0% (announces FDA has approved ROTARIX), FSLR +1.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), IDEV +1.3% (licenses European rights for VANTAS to Orion Corp)... Analyst upgrades: RTP +2.4% (upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein), BHP +1.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein), AUY +1.2% (upgraded to Buy at UBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: DMAN -8.4% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at William Blair), RVBD -8.4% (also downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), LWSN -6.3%, FDO -5.3%, CAE -1.4%... Other news: WX -4.2% (files an F-1 relating to a 10.12 mln share ADS offering; 4.26 ADS are being offered by the co and 5.86 mln ADS being offered by selling shareholders), MF -3.2% (checking for anything new; the stock gave up a good portion of its gains yesterday afternoon when WSJ reported that it is seeking financing alternatives), ZMH -3.0% (announced actions affecting its Ohio-based Orthopaedic Surgical Products Operation), AU -2.4% (revises production guidance for Q1), CFC -2.0% (Moody's cuts Countrywide's Bank Financial Strength rating to D; WSJ reports CFC faces downgrade if BofA deal falls through), DIOD -1.3% (to acquire Zetex plc)... Analyst downgrades: KSU -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS and downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital), HMY -2.0% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), DELL -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), TGA -1.0% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), RDWR -1.0% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), CSX -1.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill). -
Notable Callist:
JPMorgan Chase & Co said it bought 11.5mm shares of Bear Stearns on the open mkt. With the purchase, JPMorgan owns about 12.98mm Bear shares, or about 8.9%. JPMorgan said it expects to buy more shares, potentially until it owns as much as 49.5% of Bear Stearns' outstanding shares.
Notablecalls: What the heck is JPM doing buying BSC stock above their own $10 bid? Is it because they know (or suspect) something..? -
JAKKS Pacific: Hearing that Private sector toy analyst who called the ERTS/TTWO deal is saying Disney Interactive in final talks to buy Jakk's Pacific in the range of $35- $36
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Turgudel uskumatu optimism ning hetkel veel eriti nõrkust ei näidata. VIX - volatiilsusindeks on kukkunud läbi aasta põhjade 22 taseme olles -5.51% languses.
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Ja vaikselt hakatakse allapoole tiksuma, kas reaalsus hakkab koitma?
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MBIA Inc: Fitch downgrades MBI insurer financial strength rating to 'AA', outlook negative.
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Kui esmaspäeval sellele ka ei reageerita siis millele veel?
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Mis esmaspäeval? Kui nüüd ei reageerita, siis esmaspäeval ammugi mitte. Ootan ise kasumivõttu.
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Loogiline oleks, et juba täna tuleks kasumivõtul müügisurve, kuid turg ikka uskumatult tugev viimased päevad.
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Kas reitinguagentuuride tegevusel mingit loogikat ka on? Kui Fitcs langetab siis peaks teised ka lähiaja?
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*lähiajal
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paistab et roosad prillid pannakse vaikselt ikka enne esmaspäeva juba öökapile...
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Ehee. Nüüd tõmmatakse hoopis suusamüts silmini ja toksitakse buy nuppu nii et paha hakkab
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reedeõhtune ostupaanika on üks ääretult tore asi.
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aga SKF-ile küll ei mõjunud :)
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Paistab, et RedEnvelope (REDE) lõpetab tegevuse. Krediidiliin Wells Fargo Retail Finance poolt lõpetati ja ettevõttel puuduvad vahendeid tegevuse jätkamiseks. Aga oli ka kummaline äriidee. Ja kaua pidas vastu.
REDE leidis aktiivset käsitlemist siin foorumites LHV Pro algusaastatel.
