Börsipäev 7. aprill
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Kuigi lühiajaliselt neutraalne uudis, siis tulevikku vaadates on mainimist väärt, et hoolimata tihedast konkurentsist soovib turuväärtuselt maailma 17. pank Sberbank (SBER03) jõuda viie aastaga maailma 10 suurima panga hulka. Eesmärgi saavutamiseks soovitakse agressiivsemalt võtta sihikule SRÜ, Hiina, ülejäänud Aasia ja Ida-Euroopa turud ning lisaks tahetakse välistehingute osakaalu suurendada 20%-ni tuludest, praegu jääb see ainult 1% piirimaile.
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Alcoa (AA) täna avaldatavate kvartalitulemustega võib tulemustehooaja taaskord avatuks lugeda. Kasumite vähenemist oodatakse ca 12% yoy, kuid finants- ja kinnisvarasektorit kõrvale jättes suudetaks kasumeid tõenäoliselt marginaalselt kasvatada.
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RenCapi reedest analüüsist selline huvitav lõik:
Among second-tier Russian banks, Bank Saint-Petersburg (BSPB) remains our top pick based on valuations, trading at a 20-30% discount toVozrozhdenie on PER and PBR. Despite relatively less attractive multiples, wecontinue to like Vozrozhdenie as a story and a stock that offers 19% upsidepotential to our new target price. While URSA Bank prefs are the cheapest in thepeer group, we will await clear delivery on URSA’s deposit-funded growthstrategy in 2008 before making any strong call on the stock.
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Kuna räni pakkumine ei suuda endiselt nõudlusega kaasas käia, on see vesi thin-film tehnoloogiat kasutavatele päikeseenergia aktsiatele. Sellisele järeldusele on jõudnud Calyon, tõstes nii First Solari (FSLR) kui ka Energy Conversion Devices'i (ENER) hinnasihte:
Calyon says poly market supply/demand conditions remain tight. This is a positive for thin-film's long-term growth prospects. Firm is therefore increasing their multiples and price targets for FSLR and ENER. FSLR's revised $335 target (from $280) suggests ~20% upside. Firm also raises the ENER target multiple to 25x (from 20x) their calendar 2010 EPS, discounted back two years. This suggests a mere 0.3x PEG ratio and brings their tgt to $42. Firm says the persistent poly crunch will continue to constrain global solar growth and pressure some producers' margins. Firm believes FSLR is poised to announce its first US utility customer in the not-too-distant future. They also believe ENER is well-positioned for inclusion in the recently announced 250MW Southern California Edison project, given its distributed generation BIPV product that caters to low load-bearing, commercial rooftops.
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Saksamaa DAX +0.92%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.93%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.86%
Hispaania IBEX +0.69%
Venemaa MICEX +2.05%
Poola WIG +0.78%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.18%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.29%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +4.45%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +4.90%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.87%
Tai Set N/A (börsid suletud)
India Sensex +2.70%
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Momentum From Friday Looks to Continue
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/7/2008 9:06 AM EDT
A pessimist is one who makes difficulties of his opportunities; an optimist is one who makes opportunities of his difficulties.
--Reginald B. Mansell
Last week, I commented that the trading action was the best we've seen so far this year. That was particularly evident on Friday as the market simply ignored the poor jobs numbers and saw a very high level of speculative trading.
That upbeat mood is continuing in full force this morning. We have strong opens shaping up in a variety of sectors, as overseas markets rallied strongly, a deal for Washington Mutual (WM) helps financials, the dollar strengthens and demand for metals and commodities booms.
The dynamic that we are seeing this morning is performance anxiety and fear of being left behind. The market downtrend over the last few months has left many market players poorly positioned for strength. They are underinvested, and are now rushing to grab long exposure, so they are left sitting on the sidelines as the market blasts ahead.
We now have almost the exact inverse of what we had just a few weeks ago, but momentum is heading in the opposite direction. We didn't want to anticipate that the downtrend would suddenly end and reverse because the power of momentum is so great. Now the momentum is occurring in the opposite direction, and we want to respect it and try not to anticipate that it is going to die suddenly.
I don't particularly like seeing a big frothy open on a Monday morning and wouldn't be at all surprised to see a reversal, but if we broaden out our time frame, this action does bode well for continued upside in the days ahead. We're a bit extended here now and overly excited, but that means that it is likely there are buyers under the surface looking to jump in a pullback.
The interest in buying pullbacks are going to be the key measure of market health at this point. We need to see if buyers really have regained some confidence and are willing to start building up positions as prices moderate a bit.
Keep in mind that we have the extra complexity of earnings kicking in, and the psychology that emerges as numbers hit is going to a primary driver. We will have to wait and see if the market is anticipating poor reports and is willing to forgive them. Many expect estimates to come down as reports roll out, but this market has been anticipating that to some degree.
Be careful about chasing this gap up this morning. I'm taking some gains where I have them, but am also interested in buying as the charts setup.
Good luck and go get 'em.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SNP +1.6%... M&A news: LIFC +16.8% (to be acquired by Kinetic Concepts for $51.00 per share)... Select solar stocks continue Friday's momentum higher in pre-market trading: ESLR +8.3% (to double plant's size, add 350 jobs - Boston Globe), AKNS +6.6%, LDK +4.7%, STP +4.0%, CSIQ +3.8%, JASO +3.6%, YGE +3.5%, SPWR +3.0%, FSLR +2.5%... Select financial stocks showing strength: WM +15.0% (to get $5 bln - WSJ), BK +3.9%, CS +3.4%, WB +2.1%, MS +2.1%, C +2.0% (seeks $5 bln for infrastructure fund, people say - Bloomberg.com), DB +1.1%... Select drybulk shipper names showing strength following positive comments on DRYS in Barron's: DRYS +6.0% (mentioned positively in Barron's), EXM +5.8%, TBSI +4.0%, DSX +3.2%, QMAR +2.8%... Other news: GHM +5.5% (makes IBD 100 debut at #1), LMC +4.5% (still checking), BGP +3.7% (finalizes improved financing agreement with Pershing Square; lower rate, increased backstop and reduction in the number of warrants), MOS +3.4% (continued momentum from Friday's 10% surge), LSI +3.1% (Intel and LSI collaborate to redefine RAID deployment on Intel-based server and workstation platforms), ABK +3.0% (announces the creation of a team to address issues in the short term municipal markets), IXYS +2.9% (wins a further ruling against IRF in The Court of Appeals), BHP +2.4% (expects 4-5 years of double-digit oil, gas growth - Bloomberg.com), POT +2.2% (Hearing tgt raised to $225 from $180 at tier 1 firm), NWA +2.2% (Delta and Northwest revive merger talks - Financial Times), MSFT +2.0% (MSFT is evaluating its offer for Yahoo! in light of the worsening market conditions), WWE +2.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), EMKR +1.6% (elects new Chairman and CEO), AKS +1.6% (announces increase in spot market prices for its carbon steel products by $150 per ton for all new orders, effective immediately), PCS +1.6% (pre-releases Q108 subscriber results)... Analyst upgrades: UBS +5.9% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill), FMCN +5.4% (added to Alpha List at Piper Jaffray), SSL +4.8% (added to EMEA1 List at Merrill), AAUK +3.6% (upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm), X +2.7% (upgraded to Overwt at Morgan Stanley), ITT +2.0% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill), KLAC +1.9% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), AAPL +1.6% (upgraded to Overwt at Weisel).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: SCSC -15.9% (also expands communications business internationally, acquires UK-based MTV Telecom), VIGN -12.9% (also downgraded to Hold at Roth), EVVV -8.6%... Other news: NVS -2.9% (to acquire 25% minority stake in Alcon from Nestle), YHOO -2.4% (MSFT threatened a hostile takeover of the co if they don't agree to a merger within the next three weeks - WSJ), TRMP -2.0% (comments on strategic plan), AZN -1.9% (Generic rivals loom for AstraZeneca - WSJ)... Analyst downgrades: ACGY -3.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), MGM -1.8% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Oppenheimer), OPTT -1.7% (downgraded to Underperform at Bear Sterns), CRUS -1.4% (downgraded to Hold at Needham), SHOR -1.3% (downgraded to Underwt at JPMorgan), AMAT -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), ELX -1.0% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Wachovia). -
Microsoft (MSFT) on saatnud avaliku kirja Yahoo (YHOO) juhatusele, kus väljendatakse pahameelt pikaleveninud läbirääkimiste üle ja ähvardatakse karmimate meetoditega. Juhul kui Yahoo juhatusega ei saada kokkuleppele kolme nädala jooksul, siis minnakse pakkumisega otse aktsionäride juurde. Lisaks võib seekord olla pakkumise hind juba madalam.
Loomulikult ei pruugi Yahoo aktsionärid (madalamat) pakkumist vastu võtta ja pigem on selline asjade kulg märk Microsofti poolt, et soovitakse tehing kiiresti lõpule viia. -
Jim Cramer on pullisarved otsa ette kasvatanud ja n2eb turgudel h2id aegu. Mees ytleb ise niimoodi:
"Best Spot of the Year...
This ongoing disposal of the big problems out there may be why so much of the market looks so much better than it did just a few weeks ago. It will be increasingly obvious that we caught the bottom in this cycle with the Bear collapse, which engendered more fear than any event I can recall since Long Term Capital."
Turut6usu konsensus v6ib siin veel aga nii m6negi pettumuse valmistada. Tasub valvel olla. -
Jim is not alone :)
Treasury Secretary Paulson says US will return to robust economic growth - DJ
Treasury Secretary Paulson says long-term US econ fundamentals are 'sound' - DJ -
Lastele hea une-muinasjutuks lugeda: "Lugu majanduslangusest, mis lõppes veel enne, kui alatagi jõudis"
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Microsofti nädalavahetusel saadetud kirjale vastas Yahoo täna, et ei ole pakkumise vastu, kuid peab hinda liiga madalaks. Yahoo tegevjuht Yang:
"We are not opposed to a transaction with Microsoft if it is in the best interests of our stockholders. Our position is simply that any transaction must be at a value that fully reflects the value of Yahoo, including any strategic benefits to Microsoft, and on terms that provide certainty to our stockholders."
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First Marblehead (FMD) on täna tõusnud 8%. Aktsiat liigutab ilmselt hommikune WSJ uudis, et Washington Mutual (WM) saab $5 mlrd kapitalisüsti private equity firmade poolt. FMD aktsiatest on umbes 20% lühikeseks müüdud ja WM uudis on olnud piisav short squeeze tekitamiseks.
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Kogu finantssektor näitab üles üllatavat tugevust antud uudise peale ning veab ka kogu turgu, kui finants nõrkust näitaks, annaks turg päris palju tagasi.
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Kui finants toetustest läbimurrab võib päev isegi langusesse jääda.
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päris karm päev täna...
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SPY kõrgem tipp ja kõrgem põhi ikkagi.
