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Börsipäev 18. aprill

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • France Telecom kinnitamas ametlikult huvi TeliaSonera omandamise vastu. Avaldatud läkituses kinnitatakse, et TeliaSonera vastu tuntakse huvi, ettevõte pakuks FT-le strateegilisi võimalusi ning kontsernid täiendaksid üksteist.

    Siiski ei ole veel välja tuldud ametliku pakkumisega ega asutud ka läbirääkimistesse TeliaSonera põhiomanikega. Soodsa pinnase selleks loob siiski Rootsi valitsuse (kui suurima omaniku 37,3% osalusega) põhimõtteline valmisolek aktsiate müümiseks. Kindlasti oleks FT kosilasena Rootsi riigile sobivam kui Vene kapital, mis samuti TeliaSonera vastu huvi tundnud on.
  • Investment bank Morgan Stanley (MS) has been given a mandate to analyse how the Swedish state should sell its remaining 37.3 percent stake in the TeliaSonera, nordic telecom leader, wrote Dagens Industri, citing a source. Morgan Stanley declined to comment.
    France Telecom on Friday said it was in exploratory talks to acquire Nordic operator TeliaSonera but stressed negotiations had not started yet and it had not given itself a deadline.
    Kõigele vaatamata kaupleb France Telecom (FTE) Pariisis -2.2% (19.42EUR) ja Telia (TLSN) Rootsis +3.6% (51.50SEK)

  • Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) teatas, et korraldab järgmisel nädalal täiendava kapitali kaasamise aktsiooni (fonidiemissioon) lootes kaasata $17.8 mld. Asja teeb huvitavaks see, et pank on varem kinnitanud, et ei vaja täiendavat kapitali. RBS aktsia Londonis 362 penni ehk -1.1%
  • Ega nad keegi "ei vaja". LEH ka ei vajanud , kaasas lihtsalt "igaks juhuks"
  • Riisi (ZR) hind on nädalaga tõusnud üle 16%. Täna on Chicago Board of Tradel kaubeldavad futuurid kerkinud üle 4% kartuses, et Hiina ja Vietnami poolt kehtestatud ekspordipiiranguid võivad rakendada ka teised suuremad riisikasvatajad riigid. Filipiinid, kes on riisi suurim importija on suutnud saada lepinguid kõigest 2/3 koguvajadusest vaatamata sellele, et on nõus maksma ligi 40% rohkem kui märtsis.
  • Tänasteks tähtsamateks tulemuste teatajateks optsioonireedesel eelturul on Caterpillar (CAT) (ootus EPSis $1.33), Citigroup (C) (ootus -$0.95) ja Schlumberger (SLB) (ootus $1.11).

    Google (GOOG) suutis eile nõrgapoolse 4. kvartali ja nüüdsete madalate ootuste järel turgu üllatada tugeva 1. kvartaliga. Aktsiapõhine kasum $4.84 ületas oodatud $4.52 ning ka $3.7 miljardiline müügitulu oli suurem oodatud $3.6st miljardist. Tugevad numbrid lennutasid aktsia 16% kõrgemale $520 juurde. Kui nüüd Caterpillar või Citigroup pidu oma numbritega ära ei riku, on tõusu jätkumiseks täna ajutiselt uksed lahti.
  • Kuigi MTSi aktsiale on allolev uudis neutraalne, siis pikaajaline positiivne trend on jätkuvalt jõus. MTS suudab võita uusi kliente, mis suurendab ka Sistema (AFKC) tulusid:

    Mobile subscribers update: MTS wins again in net additions A set of mobile subscribers data for March showed further increase in the number of SIM cards in Russia to 168 mn, which translates into 115.7% penetration against 114.6% a month earlier. MTS remained the clear leader in attracting subscribers in Russia, accounting for 51% of total net additions for March (about the same as in February).

  • Negatiivne uudis MTS-i kohta tuli 2 päeva tagasi, kui majandustulemused jäid ootustele alla. Kolmapäeval lõpetas MTS-i aktsia USA-s tugevas miinuses, eile langes seetõttu ka Sistema.
  • Nokia (NOK) ettevaatlik hääletoon eilsel konverentsikõnel ja murelikud küsimused analüütikuilt - kes kuulas CC'd, see teab, millest räägin - ei läinud kurtidele kõrvadele. Täna hommikul on UBS langetamas Nokia soovituse 'osta' pealt 'neutraalsele' ning JP Morgan 'Overweight' pealt 'Underweight' peale.
  • C prelim ($1.05) vs ($0.95) First Call consensus; revs $13.22 bln vs $12.77 bln First Call consensus
  • Citi kohta veel:
    First Quarter Highlights
    Record revenues in transaction services, up 42%, and record net income, up 63%. Liability balances increased 32% and assets under custody grew 21%.

    Within fixed income markets, client-related rates and currencies business revenues rose 17%. Local markets sales and trading in emerging markets produced strong results.

    Strong growth in equity prime finance revenues.

    Smith Barney revenues increased 18% and Private Bank revenues grew 10%.

    International retail banking revenues grew 21%.
    Aktsia eelturul +4.5% @ $25.35
  • MTSi puhul on kindel, et prognoosidesse tuleb suhtuda mõningase reserveeritusega. Kui tegutsetakse SRÜ-s, kus penetratsioon on madal ning kasvukiirus raskesti ennustatav, siis on lahtisi otsi ja määramatust päris palju. Seepärast julgeks väita, et MTSile antakse andeks ka ootustele alla jäämine, sest kasvulugu ei kao kuhugi. Tõenäoliselt ei arva keegi, et SRÜs mobiiltelefonide hulk ei tõuseks ning sealt saadav tulu ei suureneks. Lihtsalt kõike seda on kolme kuu kaupa keeruline prognoosida, eriti arvestades, et kasum kasvab 64% yoy.
  • Davenport on alustamas Philip Morrise (PM) katmist:

    Davenport initiates Philip Morris Int'l (PM 49.85) with a Buy and sets a $58 tgt, as they believe PMI remains extremely well-positioned in the global tobacco industry, in terms of both its brands and geographic scale while they expect the co to more aggressively pursue acquisitions and grow market share.

  • Google, Citigroup ja Caterpillar on kõik aktsiaturgudele rõõmu valmistamas.

    CAT lööb ootusi - teatab EPSist $1.45 vs oodatud $1.33 ning müügitulust $10.98 vs oodatud $10.77 miljardit. Tunnistatakse USA nõrkust, kuid öeldakse, et muu maailma nõudlus kaevandus- ja energiatööstusmasinate järele ning eelkõige arenevate riikide investeeringud infrastruktuuri ehitamisse on jätkumas vähemasti selle aastakümne lõpuni ning see tugevus on ka tänaste ootuste löömise taga.
  • Ross Stores (ROST), mis 10. aprillil teatas analüütikute ootusi ületanud märtsimüügist ning ühtlasi tõstis Q1 prognoose, on saanud järjekordse ostusoovituse. Varem tõstsid soovitust juba MS ja JPM ning täna lisandus LEH, kes tõstab hinnasihi $40-ni.

    Kuigi tänane LEH hinnasihi tõstmine on positiivne, siis on aktsia aasta algusest tõusnud juba üle 50% ning viimase JPMi upgrade'i järel hoopis langes. On täitsa võimalik, et ka tänane tugevus jääb lühiajaliseks tipuks ning aktsiast asutakse kasumit võtma. Samas on turg tugev ning kohe alguses näppida ei maksa.

  • Üks väike lõiguke Caterpillari tulemuste aruandest kuskilt kaugelt tagantpoolt : ) Nimelt CAT ootab ECB-lt lähiajal intressimäära langetamist.

    Our last outlook expected European economic growth to slow to 2.3 percent in 2008. We have lowered the first quarter forecast to about 2 percent growth. We expect sales growth in Europe to slow in response to tighter financial conditions, declining housing permits and some slowing in nonresidential construction. We believe the European Central Bank will take one 25-basis point rate cut rather than hold rates steady as previously expected. The Bank of England is expected to cut rates further. Offsetting that modest deterioration in Europe, sales in Africa/Middle East and the CIS should do better. First-quarter sales in those two areas were very strong.

  • Discount brokerid on oma tulemused avaldanud ning kuigi mõnel juhul on kauplemistulud ja klientide varad vähenenud, ei ole midagi katastroofilist lahti. Samuti lisandub uusi kliente ning võrreldes aasta varasemaga on kauplemistulud ikkagi plussis. Ootasin suuremat langust, aga seda ei juhtunud ning tänaseks on olukord juba normaliseerunud.

    ETFC alustab peale eilseid tulemusi 14% kõrgemalt, SCHW on saanud upgrade'i ning AMTD on +1.7%.

  • USA turud on tugevate tulemuste toel täna tugevalt plusspoolel kauplemist alustamas:

    Saksamaa DAX +2.22%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.79%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.31%

    Hispaania IBEX +2.23%

    Venemaa MICEX +1.85%

    Poola WIG +0.52%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.58%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.25%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -3.97%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -4.94%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.34%

    Tai Set -0.11%

    India Sensex N/A (börs suletud)

  • Today Will Tell Us a Lot About This Market
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/18/2008 8:30 AM EDT


    Google reminds me very much of what went on in 1999 and 2000. ...The valuation is insane.
    -- Fred Hickey, editor, High-Tech Strategist, earlier this year

    Google (GOOG) caught an awful lot of folks by surprise with a strong earnings report and is causing a huge gap up in the market this morning. In addition, earnings reports from Caterpillar (CAT) and Citigroup (C) are being well received, and we have an extremely hot open as some buyers panic that the market is going to go straight up and leave them standing on the sidelines with too much cash.

    There is no question that the market action has dramatically improved. The poor earnings from GE (GE) have been forgotten as Intel (INTC) , IBM (IBM) , Google and several financials have produced earnings reports that exceeded very low expectations. Google in particular is benefiting from a general consensus that it would have a poor report, as click data had incorrectly indicated that business was slowing.

    The catalysts for the move up at this point are obvious. The big question is whether they will keep this market running. The indices are back up over the key 50-day simple moving average, and with the big move up to start the day, they will be challenging the highs we saw earlier this month when the S&P 500 hit 1386 and the Nasdaq traded up to 2391. The technicians will be watching those levels carefully and will be increasingly bullish should we be able to close over them.

    If the bulls can make a new monthly high, there isn't much resistance on the charts until we start hitting the 200-day simple moving average, which is 1440 for the S&P 500 and 2537 for the Nasdaq.

    That would obviously be quite a run from current levels, but with performance anxiety and a "wall of worry" to climb, those aren't totally unreasonable targets for the more optimistic bulls who are convinced that the bear market is now over.

    The bears' argument at this point is that rallying because we are exceeding very low expectations is a bear-market phenomenon, not a new bull market. The argument is a bit thin, because IBM and GOOG are not just functions of low expectations but very healthy reports standing on their own.

    Nonetheless, there is little question that the economy still faces numerous hurdles. As several Fed members commented yesterday, we are likely to see some further slowing, and with energy and food prices ramping up and the dollar falling, inflation is still a major concern.

    So the bulls have the ball and they are running with it. How well we close today on this very positive news flow will go a long way in telling us how likely some sustained momentum might be. As we have seen several times this year, high levels of excitement can lead to quick reversals, but we have also had some huge "gap and go" days as well.

    Like many others, I'm underinvested at this point and holding quite a bit of idle cash. Even though I'd like to add some long exposure, I won't be chasing this open. I'll stay selective with my buying, and if that means that I continue to hold a high level of cash, so be it.

    Buckle on your trading helmet and adjust your goggles -- it's going to be an interesting day.

    ----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: OSTK +35.7%, GOOG +17.9% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Collins Stewart and upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), MF +11.7% (also added to Focus List at JPMorgan), ETFC +10.5%, C +8.2%, TPX +7.8%, PMCS +7.7%, MAN +7.2%, DOX +6.8%, ELY +6.4%, TLB +5.9%, SNDK +4.6%, CAT +4.5%, INFA +3.8% (also announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a $75 mln increase in its common stock repurchase program), HON +3.7%, COF +2.2%, XRX +1.0%... Select financial names showing strength following C earnings: WM +4.0%, LEH +3.3%, BAC +3.1%, MS +3.1%, GS +2.9%, JPM +2.6%, COF +2.6%, MER +2.3%, WFC +1.8%... Select tech stocks rebounding, boosted by GOOG earnings results: CRM +9.2%, BIDU +8.8%, AMZN +3.3%, RIMM +2.8%, FMCN +2.6%, AAPL +2.3%, MSFT +2.1%, EBAY +1.9%... Other news: VOD +2.6% (still checking), SHPGY +2.6% (still checking), CHL +1.6% (profiled in Barron's Online), ISIS +1.6% (reports reduction of apoB-100 levels in a murine model resulting in up to 92% reduction of atherosclerosis)... Analyst upgrades: TTHI +6.0% (initiated with Buy at Piper), AVNX +4.3% (initiated with Buy at Merriman), ROST +2.4% (upgraded to Overweight at Lehman), UTEK +2.1% (upgraded to Buy at Brean Murray), ADS +1.8% (upgraded to Outperform at Piper), CSCO +1.7% (initiated with Buy at Lazard).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: TOMO -30.3%, GRRF -16.3%, ATRM -14.4%, ACO -10.6%, ISRG -8.2% (also downgraded to Accumulate at ThinkPanmure), USTR -7.3%, VASC -4.7%, ESLR -4.4%, CYN -3.9%, CBST -2.3%, SLB -2.0%, ICUI -1.8%... Select metals/mining stocks showing weakness with lower spot prices following rally in the dollar: TGB -4.6%, GRS -4.1%, DROOY -4.0%, KGC -3.5%, GG -3.5%, SLV -2.8%, SLW -2.7%, AEM -2.5%, AUY -2.1%, HL -2.1%, PAAS -2.1%, GLD -1.6%, GOLD -1.6%, RTP -1.3%... Other news: BRLC -13.0% (provides financial statement update; financial statements for fiscal year ended June 30, 2007 and the interim periods may likely require restatement ), SCOR -4.6% (trading lower after GOOG reported search advertising data that differed from comScore's), ATN -2.4% (announces its decision not to proceed at this time with offering of Class B units)... Analyst downgrades: FTE -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), CMP -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan).
  • Nafta tegi natuke aega tagasi uue rekordi, hetkel kaubeldakse $116.75 juures.

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