Börsipäev 21. aprill
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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No on tüübid... Eelmisel nädalal räägiti palju sellest, kuidas levivad kahtlused, et pangad manipuleerivad LIBOR-iga. Tegemist on keskmise intressimääraga, millega pangad üle maailma teineteisele laenavad. LIBOR leitakse, kui suuremad pangad iga päev Reutersisse helistavad ja teatavad, millise määraga nad laenu saavad.
LIBOR'iga on seotud $900 miljardi eest subprime-laene ning ligi $9 triljoni väärtuses korporatiivlaene (WSJ). Kuna arvutamine toimub usalduse alusel, eksisteerib arvestatav võimalus sihipäraseks manipuleerimiseks. Nüüd kahtlustataksegi, et osad pangad teatavad meelega väiksematest määradest, et varjata oma finantsseisundit ja vajadust kapitali järele.
Tundub, et kuulujuttudel on alus olemas, sest peale BBA (British Bankers Association) teadet, et probleemi hakatakse uurima, on LIBOR järsult tõusnud. Pikaajalisel graafikul ei ole tegu just meeletu kasvuga, samas tasub meelde tuletada, et viimane kord leidis nii suur tõus aset eelmise aasta augustis – siis, kui paregused jamad alguse said. Allpool ühe kuu pikkune graafik:
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libori liikumisega on seotud ka väga palju tuletisinstrumente, nii et selle mõju võib olla kokkuvõttes veel suurem.
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Huvitav , millise LIBOR iga juba aruanded avaldanud pangad arvestasid? (näit C, )
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Madis, kas sa nägid BBA pressikat ka? Ma nägin reedel mingeid uudiseid selle kohta, aga BBA lehelt oli võimatu midagi välja kaevata. Eriti huvitaks see asjaolu mille kohaselt BBA "ilmselgete susserdamiskahtlustega numbrid eemaldab ja neid ei arvesta". Et kuidas see täpsemalt toimub??? Muide, LIBORite spikemine on tegelikult üliolulise tähtsusega asjaolu süsteemis. Nimelt eelmised suured keskpankade stabiliseerimissammud olid mõeldud just LIBORite allatampimiseks mitte USA kodulaenajate päästmiseks (sest nemad ei huvita kedagi). Ja ühtlasi nende sammude edu soovitigi näha LIBORite rahunemises mitte kinnisavrahindade rahunemises vms. Kui nüüd LIBORid spikevad, siis võiks oodata järjekordseid suuremaid samme keskpankade poolt.
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Jah, see ongi halb, et kuigi LIBOR on jõuga alla toodud, siis spread on suurenenud ning täies ulatuses pole loodetut saavutatud. Pressikat pole näinud, aga ega neil kindlaid vahendeid ei tohikski olla, sest asi põhineb suuresti usaldusel. Arvan, et küsimus on pigem retoorikas ja preventatiivses ähvardavas toonis ning "ilmselgete numbrite eiarmine" tähendab lihtsalt meetodit, kus ääred arvestusest välja jäetakse.
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Madis kust sa LIBORi graafiku võtsid?
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Kolme kuu omad on siin, aga erinevaid intressimäärade graafikuid on tihti üsna keeruline leida. Kuigi see oli tasuta allikast, siis meil on võimalik kasutada ka tasulisi, kus neid vähe paremini kätte saab. Netist otsides on siiski kõige parem, kui kohe otsingut täpsustada, nt. 3 months USD Libor vms.
Ja BBA lehel on olemas kõik ajaloolised andmed, kuigi ebamugavalt kuude kaupa Excelis. -
lisaks kuuldustele LIBORiga manipuleerimise osas rõõmustab vandenõuteoreetikuid ja maailma lõpu ootajaid tänane Wall Street Journal, mille väitel on Citigroup, Merrill jt. värskete tulemuste põhjal leidnud JOKK lahenduse mahakirjutusteks viisil, mis ei mõjuta kasumit
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Financial Times reports Bank of America (BAC) is seeking to raise capital to shore up its balance sheet in the wake of the credit crunch by selling shares in China Construction Bank. The US bank is planning to sell part of its 9% stake in China's second biggest bank, people familiar with the matter say.
Kas väike indikatsioon täna avaldatavatele tulemustele? -
momentum
oodata järjekordseid suuremaid samme keskpankade poolt? BOE on juba hoos ja lubab 100B USD eest mortgage backed kraami swapida UK Treasury Bills vastu ... mõju LIBORile pole esialgu näha, aga nael saab küll peksa -
Kaks artiklit Wall Street Journal-is. Digg abiks.
http://digg.com/business_finance/Libor_s_Rise_May_Sock_Many_Borrowers
http://digg.com/search?s=Bankers+Cast+Doubt+On+Key+Rate+Amid+Crisis
LIBOR-i arvutamine
LIBOR-i jälgimine:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html -
Mattel-il tulemused väljas:
Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.13 per share, $0.14 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.01; revenues fell 2.2% year/year to $919.3 mln vs the $926.6 mln consensus.
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Muutusin Matteli (MAT) suhtes pessimistlikuks juba peale eelmisi tulemusi. Sisuliselt kaubeldakse veebruariga samal tasemel ning kui tookord suudeti tulusid kasvatada 15%, siis käesoleval kvartalil jäädi 2.2%-ga miinusesse. Rahvusvaheliste tulude kasv on aeglustunud (ja seda hoolimata veelgi langenud dollarist) ning kodumaine müük kukkus juba -11%.
Kuigi eelmise aasta kvartali näol viidatakse tugevale võrdlusbaasile, siis kahjumi teenimist see ei õigusta. Marginaalid langevad ning lähituleviku seisukohast on määrava tähtsusega, kuidas uusi filmitoega mänguasju turul vastu võetakse.
Samas avaldas oma tulemused ka Hasbro (HAS), millel tundub oluliselt paremini minevat:
"We had a strong 2007 and the momentum continues in 2008, with growth driven primarily by TRANSFORMERS and LITTLEST PET SHOP, as well as PLAYSKOOL, STAR WARS, BABY ALIVE, MY LITTLE PONY and board games."
Hasbro tulud tõusid 13% (ilma valuutaefektita 9%) ning EPS oli $0.25 (vs eelmise aasta $0.19).
Igal juhul turg väga nõrk ei paista ning alles peale ülehomseid Jakks Pacificu (JAKK) tulemusi saab näha, kas Matteli probleemid peegeldavad eelkõige ettevõtte enda muresid või tööstust laiemalt.
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Eli Lilly (LLY) avaldas samuti kehvad tulemused, prognoosid in-line.
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.92 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.96; revenues rose 11.9% year/year to $4.81 bln vs the $4.83 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $3.85-4.00, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.95 consensus.
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link Economist'ist
ABSTRACT
At the center of the financial market crisis of 2007-2008 was a highly unusual jump in
spreads between the overnight inter-bank lending rate and term London inter-bank offer
rates (Libor). Because many private loans are linked to Libor rates, the sharp increase in
these spreads raised the cost of borrowing and interfered with monetary policy. The
widening spreads became a major focus of the Federal Reserve, which took several
actions—including the introduction of a new term auction facility (TAF)—to reduce
them. -
Staari seisusse tõusnud Oppenheimeri naisanalüütik on taas langetamas Citigroupi (C) prognoose:
Citigroup earnings ests cut by Oppenheimer; firm is negative on C's outlook and says co may cut or eliminate current dividend - Bloomberg (25.11 ) : Oppenheimer's Whitney triples C's 2008 loss estimate - Bloomberg
Mäletatavasti sai Whitney kuulsaks just sellega, et julges turule esimesena vastu vaielda ning kahelda Citi tugevuses, mis hiljem õigeks osutus.
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Madis, mitu korda ma pean rääkima, Whitney tõusis staari staatusesse ikka sellega, et soovitas BSC maha müüa 4 USD kandis :)
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No kuulge, ajas tuleb ikka kaugemale vaadata, Whitney tõeline läbilöök oli ikka aastal 1992, koos Kevin Costneriga filmis The Bodyguard.
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Henno, õigus jah, mul kummitab üks artikkel pidevalt silme ees. Ehk jääb seekord meelde, kuigi ei usu... :)
Teen teil tuju heaks ja panen ta pildi ka:
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indeksid laiast maailmast:
Saksamaa DAX -0.96%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.10%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.17%
Hispaania IBEX -1.16%
Venemaa MICEX -0.89%
Poola WIG -1.18%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.63%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.17%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.72%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.25%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.98%
Tai Set -0.58%
India Sensex +1.57%
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Behold the Power of Low Expectations
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/21/2008 8:36 AM EDT
To be prepared against surprise is to be trained. To be prepared for surprise is to be educated.
-- James Carse
The big move in the indices last week was the function of two separate but related things. First, expectations for earnings reports were very low, particularly in the case of Google (GOOG) . Most of the earnings reports that have had positive reaction weren't all that fantastic, but expectations were so low that the stocks move up sharply anyway.
The second thing that helped fuel the rise in the indices was that many market players were unprepared for strength and had to scramble to cover shorts or add long exposure. There continues to be no shortage of economic worries out there that are likely to plague us for a while to come.
So the big question for us to consider this morning is whether the low expectations and lack of preparation for a rally are going to fuel a further rise in this market. It is quite easy to find macroeconomic arguments for why this market should struggle, but we have clear technical improvement in the charts of the major indices and the winds of upside momentum at our back.
The bulls definitely deserve the benefit of the doubt at this point, but one of the problems facing this market is that a few key sectors -- most notably oil, solar energy, agriculture, steel and metals -- have been the primary upside drivers lately and have become quite extended. Google helped technology stocks on Friday and many are now hopeful that the strength will broaden out to Internet and technology stocks in general. That would be very healthy for the overall market, but one huge day from Google because of bad analysis is not sufficient evidence to conclude that it's up, up and away for technology.
The key for the market right now is the aggressiveness of underinvested longs on pullbacks. If there is some real anxiety over not having enough long exposure, that is going to give us some very good underlying support.
The big danger for this market is news flow. Expectations are no longer quite as low now, as we are hit with a flood of new earnings this week from companies such as Apple (AAPL) . In addition, the parabolic move in oil and the struggling economy can easily infect market sentiment once again should the market not have surprising news like Google to focus on.
My game plan is to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt and be a bit more aggressive with buying. However, I am not going to chase extended charts and I will continue to be selective. Although the market needs some consolidation at this point, the mood shift is going to give us some support, and it is likely to take some pretty dramatic bad news to offset the benefit of the low expectations that we are enjoying.
We have a very minor pullback to start the day as the market shrugs off a poor report from Bank of America (BAC) , which once again shows the power of low expectations.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HAS +4.6%, ACI +4.5%, NVS +3.9%, DGX +3.0%, MRK +1.3%, LEE +1.0%... M&A news: PKTR +13.8% (to be acquired by BCSI for $7.10 a share)... Select coal names ticking higher on light volume following ACI's earnings report: ICO +3.4%, MEE +2.9%, BTU +2.7%... Other news: TIBX +5.3% (announces $300 mln stock buyback program), JASO +3.7% (signs long-term wafer supply agreement with GCL Silicon Technology), ICO +3.4% (still checking), SNP +3.3% (China Petroleum and PetroChina jump on government subsidy - Reuters), STO +3.0% (gains 1/7% in Norwegian trading, the most in 4 months as crude oil rose over $117 a barrel in New York after OPEC said it would maintain production), QGEN +2.4% (still checking), PTR +2.3% (China Petroleum and PetroChina jump on government subsidy - Reuters), TS +2.0% (still checking), GSK +1.1% (up in sympathy with MRK), IRBT +1.0% (announces funding agreement with US Army valued at $6 mln)... Analyst upgrades: HCSG +3.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Morgan Keegan), PPC +2.4% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), SLB +1.1% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), POZN +1.1% (upgraded to Neutral at Broadpoint).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: OPWV -12.8% (also names Bruce Coleman as Interim CEO), CNB -8.3%, AMLN -7.7%, MAT -3.6%, LLY -3.4%, ETN -3.4%, JEF -3.2% (also sells 13.7% strategic equity interest to Leucadia National), BAC -1.5% (also Moody's lowers BofA Corp's ratings; affirms bank's Aaa; to sell part of China bank stake - Financial Times), SAY -1.1%... M&A news: BCSI -3.4% (to acquire PKTR for $7.10 a share), GW -2.4% (Basic Energy Services and Grey Wolf agree to combine in ''Merger of Equals'' transaction)... Select European financial names showing weakness: RBS -4.6% (to announce rights issue and over $10 bln losses on investments - Reuters), ING -3.7%, HBC -1.0%... Other news: NCC -10.3% (close to $6 bln cash infusion), TMA -9.2% (announces Thornburg Mortgage Capital Resources did not make payment on the final maturity date of $300 mln), ADS -4.2% (terminates merger agreement with Blackstone Affiliates), SHLD -3.6% (Bank of America declines to renew credit pact)... Analyst downgrades: CRUS -5.4% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), GME -4.3% (downgraded to Sell at tier 1 firm), BCS -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), WFC -2.0% (downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer), R -2.0% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel), CAT -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse and downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia). -
Uuendasin täna hommikuste tulemustega just ära ka meie iga kvartaalse tulemuste tabeli, millele saab pilgu peale heita siit. Usun, et see aitab kaasa ülevaatlikuma pildi loomisele terviklikust tulemuste hooajast ning aktsiate reageeringutest neile.
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Kui HAS on 8% plussis, on MAT juba sama palju miinuses ning JAKK sisuliselt nullis.
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Kõik seni tulemused teatanud suuremad finantsettevõtted kurdavad, et kvartali viimased nädalad olid halvimad. Sama sõnum ka BACi konverentsikõnelt.
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Henno, aga kas see UK valitsusepoolne meede pole mitte reedest? (vaata ka EURGBP). See oli tugev GBP sentimentimuutja (positiivsemaks). Kui enne oli tugevalt ootused et GBP nõrgeneb veel, siis reedel hakati GBP short kinni panema. EURGBP ja GBPJPY tugevad liikumised survestasid EURi ja seeläbi EURUSD-i (ja tooraineid).
OK, ma pole päris täpselt kindel aga mul on tunne, et praegune EURGBP liikumine on pigem tehniline või ülereageerimisele järgnenud korrektsioon. -
Kui ma ajavööndiga ei eksi, siis 12:00 meie aja järgi.
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momentum, võimalik et juba reedest, ma olin vahepeal arvutist eemal mõned päevad ja uudiseid eriti ei lugenud, kuid laiemalt pasundati sellest täna ja minu loetud uudisnuppudel oli tänane kuupäev
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Henno, ma korra uuurisin asja. Tegelikult oli nii et Reedel teatati nagu põhimõttelisest valmisolekust turgu toetada ja täna tõesti tuli uudisele taha reaalne plaani sisu ja see tõesti polnud nii sexy kui oodati.
