Börsipäev 25.aprill
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WSJ andis välja huvitava kommentaari Lehman Bros. (LEH) kohta, kus spekulatiivsel rahal suur osakaal:
The Wall Street Journal reports a deeper look at Lehman's (LEH) most-recent results shows that the broker's reliance on one-time, noncash gains could make any earnings recovery more difficult than some investors think. Lehman racked up about $1.6 bln in pretax gains thanks to changes in hard-to-value equity assets, mortgage-servicing rights and the value of its own debt, which may be tough to repeat. So, investors should be cautious when it comes to Lehman's stock, which is trading at a price that is 1.18x book value - the lowest valuation among the four big brokers. Lehman's greater reliance on some noncash gains that appear hard to repeat may explain part of this valuation discount. It could also suggest that the firm's future earnings power is depleted. CFO Erin Callan, in a statement, said, "Our earnings were below our prior periods given the challenging markets; however, the diversified revenue generation capability of the underlying franchise was evidenced by our second best-ever revenue run rate." The biggest one-off item in Lehman's fiscal first quarter that ended in February was a pretax, unrealized gain of $695 mln related to an increase in hard-to-value equity positions. Lehman also booked a $364 mln pretax gain on changes in the value of mortgage-servicing rights, which are treated as an asset because they represent the future cash flows from fees borrowers pay to the companies that collect mortgage payments. Lehman also posted $600 mln from declines in the value of its own debt. But, with worries about the big brokerage houses receding, and the price of their debt stabilizing or improving, such gains are unlikely in coming quarters and could reverse.
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Täna hommikul on Citigroup Baidu.com (BIDU) soovituse tõstmas hoia pealt ostale. Aktsia on eilsete tulemuste järel täna eelturul pea 4% plusspoolel. Vastupidist reaktsiooni näeme aga Microsofti (MSFT) aktsia puhul, kus enne eilseid numbreid olid ootused ikka väga kõrgele köetud aktsia viimase 10 päeva pea 15%lise tõusuga. Eelturul lähevad MSFT-ga tehingud läbi ca 4.5% madalamatelt tasemetelt, kui eilne sulgumishind.
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Ford (F) oli eile positiivseks üllatajaks ning vedas turgu ülespoole, kuid täna on saanud JPM ja MER käest reitingu langetuse. JPM langetas neutraalse peale ja MER hoia pealt müü peale.
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Ja Bear Stearns samuti kostitamas fordi downgradega.
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Fed´i discount window krediidi kasutamine levib üha enam kommertspangandusse ning on veidi tagasi andnud investeerimispankade juures:
WSJ reports U.S. commercial banks this week increased their use of the Federal Reserve's discount window while investment banks cut their use of a direct-lending program, a sign that the focus of credit strains may be shifting from brokers to depository institutions. Lending through the discount window's primary credit facility -- used by commercial banks -- as of Wednesday was $13.46 bln, up sharply from $8.83 bln the previous week, according to Thursday's report. Average daily borrowings were $10.73 bln, the highest since after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Lending through the separate primary-dealer credit facility -- open to many of the largest investment banks -- totaled $18.56 bln as of Wednesday, down from $25.66 bln the previous week. -
Pisut värvi meie foorumitele. Täit tõtt järgnev anekdoot USA majanduse kohta täna küll ei anna, kuid teatud paralleele tõmbaksin kindlasti :)
A guy is walking with his friend, who happens to be a psychologist. He says to this friend, "I'm a walking economy."
The friend asks, "How so?"
"My hair line is in recession, my stomach is a victim of inflation, and both of these together are putting me into a deep depression!"
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Saksamaa DAX +1.50%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.57%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.41%
Hispaania IBEX +0.89%
Venemaa MICEX +0.97%
Poola WIG +1.06%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.38%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.64%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.71%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.57%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.91%
Tai Set -0.32%
India Sensex +2.42%
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Rotation Bodes Well for More Upside
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/25/2008 8:28 AM EDT
A person is never happy except at the price of some ignorance.
-- Anatole France
As I contemplated The Wall Street Journal this morning, I was struck by the generally positive tone. There were several stories discussing how the worst may be over for debt and stocks and a general attitude that things may improve from here.
This optimistic tone was further reinforced when I turned on the computer and see that the premarket action is positive even though Microsoft (MSFT) is trading down $1.40. The weakness we saw after hours last night is completely forgotten.
Earnings reports have been pretty darn good and oil prices are down a tad, so why shouldn't the market be a bit more upbeat? The economic issues we have been dealing with certainly are no secret, and earnings underscore the argument that maybe the world isn't coming to an end.
So the big question we face is whether this market can continue to rally as earnings season winds down and we await the Fed's interest rate decision next week.
One potential positive that I have been talking about quite a bit is rotation into some new leadership. Over the last few months, there has been very heavy momentum in certain cyclical, commodity and heavy industry sectors. Oil, steel, base metals, agriculture, oil and solar energy have been very strong, while much of the market has languished. Yesterday we saw a rotation out of those groups and into financials, retail and semiconductors. That is exactly the sort of rotation and/or broadening into new leadership that the market needs to work higher.
What we have to do is watch for this rotation theme to develop further. If it doesn't play out, the chances are that the broad market will struggle as well. Good markets need the right sort of leadership, and we can only go so far when oil is going straight up and is driving inflationary pressures.
The big danger we face is too much complacency and downright optimism. It is worrisome when there is a choir of voices proclaiming that the worst is over. I don't believe that it is going to be that simple, and I'm looking for another pullback sooner or later. That doesn't mean, though, that the current upside momentum can't continue for a little while.
We'd be better served if we had a higher "wall of worry" to climb this morning rather than this cheerful mood following a mediocre report from MSFT, but the bulls have been doing well lately and they are loath to temper their increasing optimism. That bodes well for some sort of pullback in the short term, but if the rotational theme continues, we will have more upside to come.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ERIC +17.8%, DECK +12.2%, TRMB +12.0% (also upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), ARBA +9.2%, MCRL +8.6%, UHS +7.8%, VISN +7.0%, DV +6.5%, PFWD +6.4% (also upgraded to Outperform at Friedman billings), IBKR +5.8% (also files S-1 relating to offering of 50 mln shares of Class A common stock), SWN +5.7%, YRCW +5.5% (also upgraded to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan), GT +5.3%, DDUP +5.0%, AXP +4.0%, JNPR +3.7%, MEE +2.9%, CRDN +2.9%, AFFX +2.8%, BUCY +2.7%, BIDU +2.2%, CVTX +2.1%, IKAN +1.8%, RVBD +1.5%, NCI +1.2% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill), HUBG +1.1%... Other news: PGNX +26.9% (co and Wyeth announce FDA has approved RELISTOR and announces it approved repurchase program to acquire up to $15 mln of its outstanding common shares; also upgraded to Hold at Citigroup), ABK +8.2% (modestly rebounding after this week's 40%+decline), ALU +6.0% (up in sympathy with ERIC), ETFC +5.0% (still checking for anything specific), V +4.8% (up in sympathy with AXP), TRN +4.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), STM +4.3% (up in sympathy with ERIC), OTTR +3.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), FRE +3.0% (reports monthly volume summary for March; aggregate unpaid principal balance increased to $712.5 bln), GSK +2.6% (still checking), CVA +2.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), BP +1.4% (still checking), HANS +1.4% (announces $200 mln share repurchase program)... Analyst upgrades: THC +6.0% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), HMA +5.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), VM +4.0% (upgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), CLS +3.5% (upgraded to Sector Outperform at CIBC), SOHU +3.4% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), CS +1.6% (upgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), NEM +1.2% (upgraded to Sector Perform at CIBC), WMT +1.0% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ACTG -21.9%, CHE -15.5%, SIRF -14.3%, NTGR -11.6% (also downgraded to Buy at BWS Financial), AMX -11.3% (also downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm and downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), SYNA -9.1%, UCBH -8.7% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets), BJRI -8.0% (also downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), ELGX -7.0%, NTY -6.5%, WPPGY -6.2%, RUTH -5.9%, MSFT -4.7%, WDC -4.3%, GNW -4.3%, CF -4.1%, SHPGY -3.3%, FII -2.9%, MO -2.8% (also hearing removed from Conviction Buy List at tier 1 firm), RACK -2.6% (also plans to name James Wheat chief financial officer), RIO -2.2%, WFR -1.9%, RMBS -1.6%, XXIA -1.4%, EZPW -1.4%... Other news: ISIS -26.8% (FDA provides clarity to Isis regarding the development path for Mipomersen), NSTK -15.1% (a 4.58 mln share common stock offering priced at $1.73), FED -2.9% (reports estimated losses at March 31, 2008), SSL -2.8% (Mazambique raises minimum wage as much as 30%, AIM reports - Bloomberg), SYT -1.9% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: F -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan and downgraded to Sell at Merrill and downgraded to Underperform at Bear Sterns), ACI -1.8% (downgraded to Below Average at Caris & Company), DDR -1.1% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC). -
Tony Crescenzi kirjutab realMoney all, et valitsuse maksurebati tšekid jõuavad tarbijate postkastideni oodatust varem. Nimelt hakatakse neid esmaspäevast alates välja saatma - 800 000 iga päev kuni kolmapäevani ning reedel veel 5 miljonit. Seega järgmine ja ülejärgmine nädal on esimesed võimalused nägemaks, kas inimesed tormavad oma tšekke lunastama ja kaupu ostma või mitte.
Igal teisipäeval avaldatakse weekly chain-store sales andmed, mis on viimase 8 nädala jooksul väidetavalt 1.3% juurde jäänud (nadi number). Seega ülejärgmisel teisipäeval avaldatavalt numbrilt oodatakse ilmselt juba suuremat näitu.
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mis selle FNDT-ga on
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Final Apr Michigan Sentiment 62.6 vs 63.2 consensus; revised from 63.2 initial reading
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ktammin ,ega midagi lahti ei ole - ühtegi tehingut pole veel täna tehtud lihtsalt.
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selge, enne oli vähemalt bid poolel midagi(Arcas)
