Börsipäev 28. aprill
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Uus nädal on kätte jõudnud ning USA turud viitavad varastel hommikutundidel veel positiivsetele meeleoludele - futuurid ca +0.5%. Aasias alustati päeva samuti jõudsalt, kuid enne turu sulgemist kerkisid esile hirmud kolmapäevase Föderaalreservi istungi osas ning et äkki viitavad targad mehed Fedis, et oleks aeg intresside langetamine pooleli jätta.
Fedi otsus kolmapäeval saab olema kogu selle kauplemisnädala tippsündmuseks. -
Enne FED intressiotsust kolmapäeval avaldatakse USA I kvartali GDP, mille konsensusootus on viimaste nädalatega 0,4% peale kerkinud
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SOHU tugevate tulemustega väljas ja kergitab ka prognoose ... aktsia varasel eelturul +11%
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S&P 500 on eelturul murdnud 1400 taseme, hetkel +0.25% ja 1401.38 tasemel.
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Saksamaa DAX +0.72%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.81%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.31%
Hispaania IBEX +0.84%
Venemaa MICEX +0.60%
Poola WIG +0.82%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.38%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.59%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.34%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.44%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.08%
Tai Set +0.74%
India Sensex -0.64%
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Time for Rotation
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/28/2008 8:16 AM EDT
Money is always there, but the pockets change.
-- Gertrude Stein
The market is at a particularly interesting and important crossroads as we conclude a stellar month for the indices and await the Federal Open Market Committee's decision on interest rates. Conditions are ripe for a rotation of leadership to occur and for new sectors to gain prominence.
As we await the Fed decision this week, two themes are developing. First and foremost, there now seems to be a consensus that the market has seen the worst and is ready to start working higher. Even the usually bearish Barron's had a cover story this weekend about how it now time to "stick a toe in" the market as the financial crisis settles down.
Certainly the technical conditions of the major indices are looking better. They are all above some key support levels and trending up steadily since the bottom in March. There is some overhead resistance looming, but the short-term trend is certainly positive and there is nothing to indicate that there are major problems at hand.
Market sentiment has improved dramatically and there is an almost sanguine attitude that the market has already priced in all our economic woes and is ready to look beyond the debt, housing and recession issues as fiscal and monetary policies start to kick in. Markets are discounting mechanisms that look forward, so it makes sense that they are anticipating better times ahead. The question we have to keep in mind is whether market players are too quick to be optimistic.
That brings us to the second theme that is developing, which is increased concerns about inflation, the weak dollar and the big move up in commodity and oil prices. Last week we saw a sharp pullback in commodity-related stocks as hints emerged that the Fed may start to focus more intently on the problem of inflation and the weak dollar. There are strong indications that the Fed may go to a neutral stance after a quarter-point cut on Tuesday.
The Wall Street Journal has a strong editorial this morning about how interest rate cuts have done little to ease problems and are in fact causing a whole set of new issues as the dollar weakens. If liquidity problems in the debt market have eased, it isn't because of the aggressive rate cuts. Yet now we have to deal with the consequences of a flood of cheap dollars.
We have our work cut out for us this week as we look to navigate a market ripe for rotation. If the Fed starts to focus on fighting inflation and supporting the dollar, the groups that have been leading us lately -- oil, steel, base metals, agriculture and cyclical industry -- are likely to see some selling pressure. The big question is where the money that rotates out of these groups might go. Ideally, we'll see financials, technology and retail benefit, but that is by no means a sure thing. Just this morning, Morgan Stanley is cautious on large-cap banks and recommends selling into rallies.
The possible end of rate cuts this week and the added danger of a high level of bullish complacency means the market is ripe for some major volatility. Our job is to be ready to capitalize as new themes start to emerge. The status quo of the past month is going to come to an end very soon.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SOHU +13.5% (SINA +6.3%, NTES +4.4%, SNDA +4.0% trading higher in sympathy), BEAV +6.1%, EPD +5.0%, BBD +4.2%, CEO +2.9%, VZ +2.1%... M&A news: WWY +25.4% (Wrigley and Mars announce merger agreement for $80 per WWY share in cash)... Select mining/metals stocks showing strength with higher spot prices: LMC +2.9%, GOLD +2.6%, AEM +1.9%, MT +1.6% (plans surcharge for its steel customers - WSJ), AUY +1.6%, AAUK +1.0%... Other news: OSTE +13.3% (Osteotech's Plexur P receives FDA clearance as bone void filler and bone graft extender in spine), IMMR +10.2% (modestly rebounding after last week's 18% drop), F +8.5% (Tracinda announces it intends to make a cash tender offer for up to 20 mln shares stock at a price of $8.50 per share), HSY +5.6% (up in sympathy with WWY), ACGY +4.0% (still checking), AERG +3.9% (receives $4.5 mln U.S. Army contract for laser guided energy program), ABK +3.6% (modestly rebounding from last week's 40%+decline), VMED +2.9% (still checking), CMI +2.9% and DISCA +2.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: CS +2.6% (upgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns and upgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), V +2.4% (initiated with Buy at UBS and initiated with Buy at tier 1 firm and initiated with Buy at SunTrust), NCC +2.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital), MRVL +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Friedman Billings), MASI +1.8% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SCMR -14.2%, RDWR -10.7%, SSW -3.7%, SNP -3.5%, LFC -3.4%, SILC -3.2%, IBN -2.5%, PNCL -2.1%, RSH -1.4%... Other news: GMST -20.4% (no specific catalyst; note shareholders vote on MVSN merger tomorrow), MEDX -12.0% (co and BMY announce that the cos will delay the Biologics License Application submission for ipilimumab), CAL -5.1% (rejects merger overtures - WSJ), UBS -2.4% (still checking), LOGI -1.9% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: UAUA -6.6% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), GT -6.6% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), SHPGY -3.2% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), SNCR -2.5% (downgraded to Accumulate at ThinkPanmure), CHE -2.0% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), AIG -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), POT -1.5% (Hearing removed from Buy List at tier 1 firm), BEBE -1.3% (downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray), ARO -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral at boutique firm), MMR -1.1% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), KSS -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird). -
UBS andis täna Visale (V) osta-soovituse ning $88-lise sihi. Allapoole liikumise ruumi näevad nad kuni $60-date keskele, kuid usuvad, et neilt taemetelt leiduks juba väga palju huvilisi aktsiat ostma.
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Asustamata kodude statistika on väga nutune:
The glut of homes on the U.S. housing market worsened in the first quarter, according to government data released Monday. The number of vacant homes in the United States rose by 1 million in the past year to a record 18.6 million, the Commerce Department said. Of those 18.6 million vacant homes, a record 2.3 million were for sale at the end of the first quarter, pushing the vacancy rate for owner-occupied units to a record 2.9%. Meanwhile, a record 4.1 million vacant homes are for rent, with the rental vacancy rate rising to 10.1%. The percentage of homes occupied by owners was steady at 67.8% in the first quarter, matching the lowest percentage in five years.
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Väljavõtted rahandusministeeriumi Steeli kõnest:
US Treasury's Steel says housing remains 'biggest downside risk' to economy
US Treasury's Steel says sees continued market challenges in months ahead
US Treasury's Steel says seeing progress in housing market
US Treasury's Steel says seeing signs of financial market improvement -
Seni on olnud küll äärmiselt vaikne kauplemispäev. Käibed suurematel indeksitel on lausa naeruväärsed. S&P500 indeks on teinud praeguseks hetkeks kõigest 1/3 tavapärasest päeva keskmisest ning lõpuni kõigest 75 minutit. Investorid/kauplejad on äraootaval seisukohal ning pärast nii kiiret tõusu ei juleta enne Fedi juurde osta ja samas ei taheta püsivalt ülespoole rühkival turul ka müüma asuda.
Mul on küll tunne, et selline vaikselt loksumine kaua enam kesta ei saa, aga saame näha. -
KB Home's (KBH) co-founder Eli Broad says US nowhere near bottom in housing market.
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Sulgesin juba eelmisel nädalal hirmuga oma positsioone, et mida siis ikkagi tänane päev ja lähitulevik kaasa toovad. Mul on ikka kõhus kahtlus, et usa presidendi toetus majandusele on veidi hiljaks jäänud. Täna küll punast pole, aga ...... see nädal alles algas.
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täna peale turgu PRAA tulemused
mida jälgida
kuidas on suudetud uued osakonnad tööle panna ehk tootlus luubi all
see ka shortijate peamine bet, et tänastes tingimustes on collectimine oluliselt raskem
1Q on sesoonselt kõige tugevam, kui kõik on laabunud, siis ootaks käibe osas üllatust
net saab pressitud, kuna intressikulud hetkel kõrged, net ilma intressideta oluline
tugev käive ka pressitud netiga peaks olema piisavalt positiivne, sest kuigi on raskem (madalama tootlusega) korjata siis suurenevad mahud kompenseerivad -
Turg on viimased nädalad uskumatult palju negatiivseid uudiseid üles ostnud, kaua pullid jaksavad või ongi probleemid läbi?
Morgan Stanley (MS) analüütikud on tunduvalt karusemad kogu turust ning ka vanameister Buffett on seisukohal, et probleemid pole kaugeltki veel läbi. -
Ega siis probleemid üleöö kao. Lihtsalt tuleb hoolega jälgida ja uuesti kelgule, kui mäest alla kimame.
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Swagelilt väga huvitav seisukoht:
US Treasury's Swagel says sees economy below trend even with stimulus. -
Kuid need ütlused aihtuvad nagu tulisele kerisele. Kedagi ei huvita. Alati on parem vaadata aktsiate tõusu kui langust.
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PRAA tuli täitsa ilus
revs $64.1 mln vs $62.78 mln First Call consensus
net tuli 0.78, alla vs eelmise aastaga, kuid selles 10senti intresse (consensus oli 83senti)
collector productivitiy on veel mõningane teema, kuid mitte midagi dramaatilist
eks homme näeme, mida teised asjast arvavad
