Börsipäev 29. aprill
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Eile maadles S&P500 indeks terve päeva olulise 1400 punkti tasemega, kuid päeva jooksul veenvalt sellest läbi murda ei suudetud ning viimasel tunnil oli tunda juba müügisurvet. Käive oli selle aasta kauplemispäevadest kõige väiksem ning on näha, et üha enam investoreid on äraootaval seisukohal edasise turu suuna osas.
Üldiselt päris niivõrd suurt tõusu ja enne määramatu faktori - kolmapäevase Föderaalreservi - saabumist, oleks lava justkui valmis kasumivõtuks, kuid väiksed kauplemismahud ei anna täna veel erilist kindlust ei pullidele ega karudele.
Eile oma tulemused avaldanud Visa (V) on kõrgete ootuste järel täna kauplemist ca 4% madalamalt alustamas. -
MasterCardilt (MA) väga korralikud tulemused:
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $2.59 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.59 better than the First Call consensus of $2.00; revenues rose 29.2% year/year to $1.18 bln vs the $1.07 bln consensus. Worldwide purchase volume during the quarter rose 15.0%, on a local currency basis, versus the first quarter of 2007, to $453 billion, driven by increased cardholder spending on a growing number of MasterCard cards. As of March 31, 2008, the company's financial-institution customers had issued 935 million MasterCard cards, an increase of 12.1% over the cards issued at March 31, 2007.
Countrywide Finantcial Corp. (CFC)-lt seevastu väga nigelad tulemused:Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $1.60 per share, $1.62 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.02. "During the first quarter of 2008, operating results benefited from profitability in the Company's Loan Production sector, from its investment in mortgage servicing rights(a), and from its Balboa Life & Casualty insurance business. However, these results were more than offset by materially higher credit-related costs during the quarter. Increased credit-related charges were driven by increased levels of mortgage delinquencies, defaults and loss severities, as well as downward revisions in expectations of home prices relative to prior quarters." (Co is in the process of being acquired by BAC.)
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Visa konkurent MasterCard heade tulemustega väljas
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $2.59 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.59 better than the First Call consensus of $2.00; revenues rose 29.2% year/year to $1.18 bln vs the $1.07 bln consensus. -
Friedman Billingsi poolt oodatakse jätkuvat survet majade hindadele:
Friedman Billings says the U.S. Census Bureau released statistics on residential vacancies and homeownership rates on April 28, and both showed negative trends. The "Vacancy Rate for Homes for Sale," which is a measure of how many vacant homes are for sale, increased from 2.82% to 2.95%-a new high for the statistic since the government starting publishing the data in 1965. Until firm sees vacancy rates move down to a more normal level in the 1% to 2% range, firm expects more downward pressure on home prices. -
United States Steel (X) tuleb ka tugevate tulemustega
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $2.36 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.55 better than the First Call consensus of $1.81; revenues rose 38.3% year/year to $5.20 bln vs the $5.09 bln consensus -
Ja aktsia miinuses. Võimsad ootused, toorainesektorile praegu omane.
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Standard & Poor's S&P/Case-Shiller majade hinnaindeks on aastaga läbi teinud suurima languse ehk 13.6%. 10 indeksisse kuuluvast piirkonnast on suurima elamute hinnalanguse teinud läbi Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix, Los Angeles and San Diego. Ning arvatakse, et põhjasid pole veel saavutatud.
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Finantssektorit on nüüd raputamas mitmed viimase kriisi järelkajad, mille vaibumist ei maksakski kuigi ruttu oodata. Nimelt WSJ kirjutab võimude võimalikust krediitkaartide reguleerimise olulisest karmistamisest ning peidetud kulude (finantsettevõtte jaoks seega tulude) ärakaotamisest. Finantssektorit sellised sündmused kindlasti ei rõõmusta.
Briefing on loo niimoodi kokku võtnud:
WSJ reports the Federal Reserve and two other regulators plan to propose strict policies on credit-card issuers after criticism that card companies charge too many hidden fees and unfairly raise interest rates on borrowers. Banking officials are bracing for the proposal and raising concerns about the plan's breadth. It would mark one of the government's most aggressive efforts to curb credit-card practices in decades and could affect more than 10,000 financial institutions. The agencies, which include the Office of Thrift Supervision and the National Credit Union Administration, would propose labeling several credit-card and banking practices as "unfair or deceptive," according to people familiar with the plan. The Fed has scheduled a public meeting on Friday to issue the plan. The proposal is expected to include curbs on the fees depositors are charged when they overdraw their bank account. -
Majadeehitajatest üks tore artikkel "Are Homebuilders a Buy?" Lõpp on hea - loodetavasti lõpeb majadeehitajate aktsiate hinnaralli kiiresti ja ebameeldivalt ning kestev majanduskeskkond hakkab uuesti kasumeid negatiivselt mõjutama. Viide siis asjaolule, et XHB on jaanuari põhjadest ligi 50% tõusnud.
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Saksamaa DAX -0.42%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.39%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.11%
Hispaania IBEX -1.19%
Venemaa MICEX -0.20%
Poola WIG -0.88%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud)
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.97%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.40%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.91%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.49%
Tai Set -0.28%
India Sensex +2.13%
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The Bear Isn't Hibernating Just Yet
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/29/2008 8:56 AM EDT
It requires a great deal of boldness and a great deal of caution to make a great fortune, and when you have it, it requires 10 times as much skill to keep it.
-- Ralph Waldo Emerson
Over the past couple of weeks, there has been a chorus of voices proclaiming that the worst is over for the market. The thinking is that banks have written off the bulk of bad debt already, the housing slowdown is well known and discounted, earnings are pretty good, the economy isn't really in that bad of shape and inflation will be dealt with as the economy slows down. We are even hearing now that the Fed is irrelevant because earnings are so good.
This optimism and complacency, coupled with a somewhat overbought market and important news from the Fed, has created the conditions where a high level of caution is now warranted. We've had a good run, but now sentiment is becoming so positive that all possible negatives -- including record high oil prices and significant inflationary pressures -- are being ignored.
The real question this market faces is whether the recent rally is the start of a new and significant uptrend or just a bear-market bounce. Bounces like what we have seen since mid-March are not uncommon within the confines of a bear market. All you need do is to look at the action like we had in the spring of 2001 when the Nasdaq bounced about 40% before rolling over again and making new lows.
It is the nature of bear markets to periodically restore hope and to entice folks into thinking that the worst is over. That disappointment is what ultimately makes bear markets so painful.
I bring this up because the market is now at a juncture where we have a particularly high risk of rolling over. There are several catalysts for a change in mood, the most important being the danger of inflation. The market is trying to ignore that issue, but with the Fed on deck it is likely to be elevated as a concern especially if no further rate cuts are coming.
I don't want to be too bearish at this point, as the indices are still uptrending. I do, however, see good reasons for increased vigilance and caution. It is certainly possible that we will continue to trend upward with a minimum of profit-taking or consolidation, but the storm clouds are out there. It doesn't hurt to protect profits at this point while we see how the Fed shakes out.
Good earnings from MasterCard (MA) and US Steel (X) are helping to improve the mood after some weak early indications, but the market seems to have shifted into a "sell the good news" attitude as we have rallied. It will be very instructive to see how well these stocks hold up as trading proceeds.
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Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: IBAS -26.5%, GIL -20.7%, LCAV -20.3%, IVAC -18.8% (also downgraded to Sell at Piper), TUNE -11.0% (also downgraded to Hold at Roth Capital), UCTT -10.8%, UA -10.6%, LDSH -10.1%, MAS -10.1%, MDR -9.7%, ENR-9.6%, TRID -8.7%, SFN -6.2%, DGII -5.7%, MHP -5.2%, RTI -4.8%, TITN -4.6% (also files for a 3.5 mln share common stock offering), CHINA -3.2%, ATHR -2.8%, AATI -2.7%, FTI -2.5%, MTW -2.4%, PRE -2.3%, X -1.3%, HIG -1.1%, DB -1.0%... Select gold stocks showing weakness with lower spot prices on strengthening dollar: DROOY -8.3%, GOLD -3.5%, AU -3.5%, HMY -3.4%, AUY -2.6%, GFI -2.0%, AEM -1.7%, NEM -1.6%, GLD -1.1%... Other news: MRK -7.0% (receives not approvable letter from FDA for MK-0524A; reaffirms FY08 EPS guidance in-line), DHT -4.9% (announces it plans to offer approx 7 mln common shares in a registered public offering), AAUK -2.9% (1Q platinum production hit by power - DJ), ABB -1.5% (still checking), FHN -1.4% ($600 mln offering of common stock at $10/share)... Analyst downgrades: COT -5.3% (downgraded to Sector Outperform at CIBC), THC -4.9% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank and initiated with Sell at Citigroup), HMA -3.6% (initiated with Sell at Citigroup), POT -2.7% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), SYMC -2.3% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan), SINA -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Kaufman). -
Avasime LHV Pro all uue idee. Kõige üldisemalt on tegemist panustamisega nafta hinna langusele, aga täpsemalt juba Pro alt.
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April Consumer Confidence 62.3 vs 61.0 consensus
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River Bank Investment Groupi analüütiku arvamuse kohaselt on väga hea aeg kasumivõtuks jaemüüjate aktsiate müügist:
Any economic and stock market boost in May and this summer from the tax rebates will be short-lived, says Doug Sandler, the chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. So he's telling investors, "if you do have some stocks in the retail space or consumer space we think that's a perfect time to be selling those securities." And in general, Sandler is urging caution. He thinks the economy is in the "early innings" of a long, early '90s-style recession, and "it's way too early to say that it's time to get back in the market." -
Lähme siis energiaga trendile vastu? Kuhu siis jääb kuldsed sõnad: " Trend on sinu sõber."? Mina ei näe küll ühtegi märki, et trend oleks murtud. Mis ei välista, et see tulevikus sünnib. Aga võib ka olla situatsioon, kus "nõrgad käed" uhutakse välja, et rajada tee uutele tippudele. Ükski hind ei ole liiga kõrge, ega ükski hind ei ole liiga madal.
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Samas vaadates BP tänast liikumist peale tulemusi, ei oleks energias väga karune. Kuid jah, tasub jälgimist.
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Nafta fundamentaalselt põhjendatud hind peaks olema ca poole madalam. Samas ei tähenda see, et hind peaks kohe langema. Lühemas perspektiivis pole ka 150+ dollari tase võimatu. Positsioon tuleks võtta osade kaupa, sest tipp võib veel kaugel olla. Kahtlemata julge tegu, ma vähemalt esialgu ei panusta.
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Nojah, ka ca aasta tagasi jaurati, et SPY ja DIA on liiga kõrgel ja kallis. Hmm, järsem pööre toimus juulis-augustis ja tõsine verevalamine alles oktoobris. Kui panna raha liinile, siis osade kaupa.
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Alvar, äkki põhjendad? Miks peaks olema nafta hind poole madalam?
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LHV Fundtech (FNDT) on küll päris likviidsuspüssiks ära läinud:).
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Kas keegi mäletab, kuna viimati kaks nii igavat päeva börsil olid?
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Nafta hind peaks fundamentaalselt olema poole madalam tarkade analüütikute arvates, kes Bloombergis esinevad. Nafta ja ka teiste toorainete üheks tõusu põhjuseks on nende kasutamine (spekulatiivse) investeeringuna. Aktsiad ja võlakirjad on langenud ja seetõttu otsitakse tootlust toorainetest. Nafta hind on ülikiiresti kasvanud, kuid tarbimine on viimastel aastatel mõõdukalt tõusnud.
Samas Jim Rogers, kes ühena vähestest toorainete buumi ära tabas, pole minu teada veel midagi müünud. -
ei ütleks, päris huvitav on olnud
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Kahtelmata on DUG eelkõige kauplemisidee ning läheb kokku meie nägemusega dollari kergest tugevnemisest, spekulatiivse raha kasumivõtust ning paarist põhjusest veel, nendest juba Pro all. Sektori ettevõtete suhtes on ootused väga kõrged ning eeltoodud X, mis küll teisest sektorist (aga siiski tooraine), on selle heaks tõestuseks. Kas aktsia, mis teeb $0.55 better than the First Call consensus of $1.81, peaks ligi 3% miinuses avanema?
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Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 EPS estimate cut to $0.85 from $1.25 at Credit Suisse; firm cuts their FY08 est to $5.35 from $6.00
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alvar, okei, selge:) Ja kuidas eristada tarku ja mitte tarku analüütikuid?:)
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GMarket beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line (21.09 +0.12) : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.21 per share, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of $0.17; revenues rose 36.1% year/year to $65.4 mln vs the $65.9 mln consensus. Co says it's off to a good start in 2008... In Q1, "we achieved record-high operating income and solid revenue growth in a typically slow period as compared to Q4."
Homme kommenteerin Pro all lähemalt. Kuid esmapilgul tundub, et kõik läheb plaanipäraselt ning agressiivne kasv on jätkumas. -
Uuendasin ka sellenädalase tulemuste tabeli just ära.
