Börsipäev 6.mai
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Päeva alustatakse futuuride poolt kerges languses, kuna finantssektorist paisuvad negatiivsed uudised ning toornaftafutuurid püsivad rekord tasemete läheduses. Finantssektorist UBS poolt avaldatud 1 kvartali kahjum koos järjekordsete mahakannetega $10.9 miljardi ulatuses ja 5500 töökoha koondamine ning Fannie Mae poolt $2.19 miljardiline 1 kvartali kahjum, dividendikärped ja $6 miljardi eest lisakapitali kaasamine. Samuti hoiatas Fannie Mae tugevast nõrkusest kinnisvara turul ning prognoosib nõrkust kogu 2008 aastaks, mis on külmaks veeks pullidele kes loodavad kiiret taastumist. Tehnoloogiasektoris on tähelepanu koondunud jällegi Microsoft Corp. ümber, kes on asunud esialgsetesse läbirääkimistesse Time Warner (TWX)-ga, seoses meediagigandi interneti üksuse AOL võimaliku ostmisega.
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Chance of Downside Here Is Very High
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/6/2008 8:10 AM EDT
A good objective of leadership is to help those who are doing poorly to do well, and to help those who are doing well to do even better.
-- Jim Rohn
The biggest problem this market faces is that we are being led by record high prices in crude oil and other commodities. The basic assumption of the optimistic bulls is that high oil and commodity prices are purely a product of a booming economy. We shouldn't worry at all, the bulls contend -- in fact, we should be pleased -- because obviously record high oil prices must mean that demand is so strong that all are other problems will disappear.
Ironically, the Fed tells us that it isn't too worried about the inflationary pressures caused by these soaring prices, because as the economy slows, demand will fall and ease the pressure.
So the bulls have it both ways. High oil is good, as it indicates that the economy is strong, but it isn't inflationary because the economy is sure to slow.
Aside from this illogic, the market is going to have some major problems if the only leadership we have is oil and commodities. Last week it looked like we might start seeing some rotation into some new stocks, but that seems to have fizzled as more poor news hits the financial sector and retail and technology stocks start to look expensive, especially as consumer spending remains lackluster.
Leadership is the key to the health of this market. It may make for some good trading when a few sectors like oil, steel, agriculture and mining are leading, but they are lousy leaders -- they not only don't help the rest of the market, but they are actually negatives for it.
Oil is strong once again this morning, and we even have Goldman Sachs out with a research report saying it expects crude oil to go to $150-$200 in the next couple of years. That is great for the oil sector, but it is trouble for most everything else.
As I've been discussing over the past week, I'm looking for the market to pull back at this juncture. We have had a good run off the March low but are now running into a number of issues. We have technical overhead, negative seasonality, the end of earnings season and a fairly high level of complacency. When we throw in record-high oil prices and the lack of healthy market leadership, the chances of downside are quite high.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: IPHS +24.9%, PWAV +17.2%, ATSI +16.6%, DIVX +16.3%, SYKE +12.9%, IAR +10.5%, XEC +9.0%, WEL +8.8%, TDG +8.4%, APC +7.4%, RAS +7.1%, MCK +6.7%, ALJ +6.0%, AU +5.4%, AFAM +5.4%, SE +4.8%, ARG +4.5%, CECO +3.5%, TAP 3.5%, BDE +2.9%, MNKD +2.0%, WWE +1.1%, CSR +1.0%... Select gold stocks showing strength with higher spot prices: DROOY +3.2%, GOLD +2.9%, GFI +1.4%, HMY +1.1%... Other news: DWA +4.7% (replaced MLNM in S&P Midcap 400; also hearing added to Conviction Buy list at tier 1 firm), IFX +4.3% (Infineon up in Europe on talk of interest from Samsung, Intel - Reuters.com), SSL +3.6% (still checking), GMCR +3.2% (will replace MATR in the S&P SmallCap 600), YHOO +2.5% (modestly rebounding following yesterday's ~15% decline; CEO open to more MSFT talks), EP +2.3% (finds oil in Brazil offshore field), AA +1.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), BMY +1.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), LDK +1.7% (signs a five-year wafer supply agreement with Qimonda), TGT +1.0% (announces agreement to sell interest in credit card receivables to JPMorgan Chase for initial investment of $3.6 bln)... Analyst upgrades: CRBC +5.0% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer and upgraded to Outperform at Keefe Bruyette), TPP +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), HES +2.5% (hearing upgraded to Buy and added to Conviction Buy List at tier 1 firm), AG +1.8% (upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: OMPI -14.2%, VM -13.6%, SMG -12.5% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James), CIM -12.3%, VMC -9.6%, FNM -7.2% (also announces $6 bln capital raise, cuts quarterly dividend to $0.25), JRCC -7.2%, TWP -6.4%, OTTR -6.2%, CLF -6.1%, WTW -5.9%, PRGO -5.1%, LF -4.2% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital), DHI -4.2%, FTEK -4.0%, Q -3.9%, HGSI -3.5%, UBS -3.4% (also plans to sell mortgage assets and cut jobs as Q1 loss nearly $11 bln - WSJ), JOYG -3.4%, PFG -3.3%, MWY -3.0%, FACE -2.7%, GFA -2.5%... Select financial stocks showing weakness: MER -2.4% LEH -1.7% DB -1.5% C -1.3% BAC -1.1% GS -1.1%... Other news: PDLI -31.4% (today is ex-dividend date for $4.25 special dividend), FRE -5.8% (down in sympathy with FNM), RTP -2.1% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: RYAAY -4.3% (downgraded to Sell at Deutsche Bank), SUN -3.0% (downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm and downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), CNH -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), PCU -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral at HBC), CAKE -1.5% (downgraded to Equal Weight at boutique firm), HBC -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS). -
Saksamaa DAX -1.03%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.83%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.88%
Hispaania IBEX -0.99%
Venemaa MICEX +0.15%
Poola WIG -0.22%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.05%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.30%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.73%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.33%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.44%
Tai Set +0.49%
India Sensex -0.67%
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Kas oleks kellelgi võimalik jagada mõnda värskemat ja põhjalikumat researchi geneeriliste ravimite tootjate kohta? kjad88@gmail.com on aadress. Tänud ette.
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USA majanduses kõik rõõsa ja kena ja ilus? Ei usu. Aprillis suurenesid pankrotiavaldused eelmise aastaga võrreldes 49%!
Kokkuvõte Briefingust juba:
"U.S. April Business bankruptcy filings increase 49% - Bloomberg.com Bloomberg.com reports U.S. business bankruptcy filings in April increased 49% from a year earlier, the biggest gain so far this year, as the slowing economy prompted more companies to shut down. Business filings rose to 5,173 during the month, according to statistics compiled from court records by Jupiter eSources. Total bankruptcy filings, including those by individuals, were up 31% from a year earlier to 93,096, the group said."
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Joel
Ma ei arva kaugeltki, et kõik on rõõsa, kena ja ilus ... aga selliste andmete juures oleks siiski kasulik teada ka seda kui suur on pankrotiavalduste arv võrreldes ettevõtete koguarvuga?
Üks majandusleht kirjutas mõni aeg tagasi, kuidas ühe panga halbade laenude maht on kasvanud 2 korda ... kõlab pahaendeliselt ... kas pole?
Number oli siis 0,2% laenuportfellist varasema 0,1% asemel :) -
Jah, kahtlemata Henno, protsendid ja statistika on jubedad asjad. Aga kui aastasel baasil ca 60 000 ettevõtet oma äri lukku keerab, siis on see ikka päris arvestatav number.
