Börsipäev 8.mai
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Kauplemispäeva alguse kujundavad makroandmed, toornafta hinna liikumine ning Euroopa ning UK keskpankade intressimäära otsused, mis küll seekord konsensuse ootustele vastavalt jäävad eeldatavalt muutmata. Hetkel indikeerivad futuurid kerget positiivsust ning kui pilkupüüdvaid sündmusi vahepeal ei toimu, siis põhirõhk 15.30 avaldataval töötuabiraha taotlejate arvul ning kell 17.00 wholesales inventories. Eilse languspäeva käibed olid veidi kobedamad, kui viimased ajad on kombeks, mis võib indikeerida negatiivsete emotsioonide tekkel järjekordset languspäeva ning S&P 500 langemine alla 1400 taseme on samuti pullidele ohumärgiks.
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Euroopa Keskpanga intressimäära otsust on võimalik kuulata/vaadata tund aega kestva otseülekandena kell 15.30 Eesti aja järgi siit.
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Apple Inc (AAPL) iPhone no longer available in the UK.
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Wal-Mart (WMT) reports Apr same store sales +3.1% vs +2.1% Briefing consensus, guides Q1 revs slightly above consensus.
Co issues upside guidance for Q1 (Apr), sees Q1 (Apr) revs of $94 bln vs. $92.44 bln First Call consensus. Sales strength continued in flat-panel TVs, with additional strong performance in April for video games and gaming systems. Sales were higher in food, dry grocery and consumables, while the allergy season helped drive sales of prescription and over-the-counter medications. -
Initial Claims 365K vs 370K consensus, prior revised to 383K from 380K
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Kui natuke lahti harutada, siis data oleks selline:
U.S. 4-week avg. continuing claims highest in 4 years
U.S. 4-week avg. continuing claims up 16,750 to 3.00M
U.S. 4-week avg. initial claims up 2,500 to 367,000
U.S. continuing weekly jobless claims fall 10,000 to 3.02M
U.S. initial weekly jobless claims fall 18,000 to 365,000 -
Euro-ala intressid siis jätkuvalt 4% peal. Üldiselt midagi kardinaalselt uut ei öeldudki. Jätkuvalt kinnitakse muresid energia- ja toiduaine hindade osas ning kuigi nenditakse võimalusi lühiajalisteks kiireteks tõusudeks, usutakse neist tulenevate inflatsiooniliste survete leevenemisse pikema aja jooksul.
Ausalt öeldes pole veel kunagi nii halva kvaliteediga ülekannet kuulanud, kui seda tänane ECB konverents Ateenast. Tehnikud peaksid järgmine kord ikka oma kõrvaga enne ära kuulama, kuidas see arvutist kõlama hakkab. Korralduskomiteele hinne 1. -
riigi rahakott on kõhnavõitu: http://jah.ee/article.php?id=3926242&language=ee&page=1
teine negatiivne eelarve poleks enam üllatus. -
aga ma lohutan ennast sellega, et edgar on selles süüdi!
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USA turud on päeva alustamas nullist. Venemaa indeksid tegid läbi suure tõusu.
Saksamaa DAX -0.47%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.53%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.12%
Hispaania IBEX -0.10%
Venemaa MICEX +3.23%
Poola WIG -1.01%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.13%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.63%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.17%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.72%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.57%
Tai Set +0.42%
India Sensex -1.49%
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End of the Optimism
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/8/2008 8:42 AM EDT
The temptation to form premature theories upon insufficient data is the bane of our profession.
-- Sherlock Holmes
For a couple of months now, the market has been enjoying a rally based on the theory that "the worst is over." We have had some better-than-expected earnings reports, and economic data have not been quite as bad as expected, either. Based on the fact that our worst fears are not being realized, many market players have been quick to believe that the debt crisis, housing disaster and a slowing economy have already been priced in and fully discounted by the market.
The optimistic view of a quick end to the bulk of our troubles and woes is certainly an appealing idea. Unfortunately, this is exactly the overly hopeful thinking than almost always prevails during bear markets. If you look back at the bear market of 2000 to 2003, you will see at least three rallies of greater magnitude than what we have recently enjoyed. During each of those rallies, there was widely held hope that the worst was over and fully priced in. Ultimately, the real pain of the bear market came when that proved wrong and another leg down began.
Our recent rally has all the hallmarks of premature and dangerous belief that the worst is over. Sentiment has jumped dramatically, and there is downright complacency in many cases. What is interesting is that this comes in the face of skyrocketing oil prices and increased concerns that inflationary pressures are growing.
My concern about another potential leg down is also supported by the technical setups that have developed. The formation off the March lows in all the major indices is a "bearish wedge." That is basically a steady, low-volume rise with little underlying support. The danger in this action is that once the uptrend is broken, the selling can intensify quickly because there isn't good underlying support. What is particularly troubling about the pattern is the consistently low volume. We have not had the sort of institutional buying and accumulation that signals that big money is coming back into the market and will support it.
Given this precarious technical setup, along with the end of earnings season, the start of weak summer seasonality, too much complacency and few potential positive news catalysts, I'm being extremely cautious. I am quite concerned that we are now on the cusp of another leg down.
My style of investing is to not be overly anticipatory, but to react as events unfold. The weakness yesterday was sufficient to cause me to add to indices shorts and to start to watch for the opportunity to add to short-side trades. The bulls have been doing a pretty good job for a couple of months now, but I believe too many people are believing hopefully that the bear market has come to an end.
We have some minor strength to start the day, as same-store sales from Wal-Mart (WMT) looks pretty good. Overseas markets were weak and the ECB is leaving interest rates unchanged, which is helping the dollar.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: BLTI +20.0%, BAGL +18.2% (also upgraded to Outperform at Piper), ENOC +16.1%, CROX +16.0%, SBH +10.2%, ENER +10.0%, NVEC +9.9%, DRRX +7.9%, AVCA +7.9%, RHD +7.8%, WG +6.9%, FLY +6.8%, ARO +6.2%, UL +4.7%, EP +3.9%, ANH +3.7% (also upgraded to Outperform at Keefe Bruyette), PHX +3.7%, AUY +3.0%, GCOM +2.7%, PRSC +2.2%, PCR +2.2%, KALU +1.6%, BBBB +1.5%, PSSI +1.4%, NWS.A +1.2%... Select metals/mining stocks showing strength with modestly higher spot prices: LMC +4.4%, BHP +4.4%, GOLD +3.8%, RTP +2.7%, MT +2.3%... Other news: ONT +15.7% (adds comprehensive video capabilities to ubiquitous Java platform with On2 Technologies), DRS +13.0% (Italy's Finmeccanica in talks with DRS Technologies - WSJ), ALNY +8.7% (Novartis exercises rights to purchase additional shares of Alnylam's common stock), ITWO +3.0% (provides update on strategic review process; Chairman of the Board steps down), AGN +1.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), FWLT +1.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: ONNN +3.4% (upgraded to Buy at Canaccord), FFIV +2.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC), ARG +1.1% (initiated with Buy at Merrill).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/same store sales: AIRN -19.6%, BRL -19.4%, HANS -17.7% (also downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), AKNS -17.2%, INAP -15.5% (also downgraded to Neutral at Cowen and downgraded to Hold at Roth Capital), NSR -15.3% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), VTAL -14.8%, PSPT -14.0%, OVEN -12.0%, BCRX -11.1%, TKC -7.6%, WRI -6.9% (also downgraded to Sell at Citigroup and downgraded to Sell at Cantor), NHWK -6.5% (also announces dutch tender offer for its common stock), SFY -6.0%, OMG -5.9%, DYN -5.7%, XRM -5.3%, PDX -5.2%, DPM -4.0%, ANDE -1.9%, GIL -1.4%... Other news: TTMI -8.6% (announces a $125 mln convertible notes offering pursuant to its effective shelf registration), UBS -1.7% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: CLWR -4.1% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), EGLE -3.5% (downgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), YRCW -3.1% (downgraded to Sell at Stifel Nicolaus), OWW -2.3% (downgraded to Market Perform at Piper), SAM -2.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at HSBC), LCC -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), PCBC -1.8% (downgraded to Underperform at RBC), JEF -1.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wachovia), ARMH -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm). -
March Wholesale Inventories -0.1% vs +0.5% consensus, prior revised to +0.9% from 1.1%
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Joel, aga reaktsioon kõnele ju ikkagi huvitav. :) Tegelikult ma ootasin ka pärast mõningase negatiivse EZ data järjestikust tulemist, et tehakse väike pööre dovish retoorika suunas, aga ei. hawkish toon säilitati.
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US Senate seen passing bill forcing halt to SPR fill next week (SPR - strategic petroleum reserve)
Seega poliitika-mehed aktiivselt üritamas võidelda tavainimese rahakotti kurnava kütusehinna vastu, lõpetades ajutiselt reservide suurendamise. -
YHOO Yahoo!: Google Has No New Deal To Announce With Yahoo, Co Founder Says -- Bloomberg (26.22 +0.58) -Update-
Google Wants To Give Yahoo Choices About 'Destiny'," Brin Says
Nii et milline saab siis olema Yahoo tulevik? Päris huvitav küsimus. Ise usun, et aktsionäride parimates huvides oleks ikkagi, et see ettevõte kiiremas korras endale hea kosilase leiaks, kuid pruut on sedapuhku lihtsalt pirtsakas. -
Soovitan soojalt veel korra pilk peale visata meie viimasele kevadisele tulemuste tabelile, kuhu viisin just sisse ka tänaõhtused tulemused. Viimased raporteerijad on järjepidevalt kasumiootustele alla jäänud. Ja eelkõige jäävad negatiivsete üllatajatena silma ettevõtted, kellelt oodati kahjumit, neil on kahjum tihtipeale olnud paraku oodatust suurem.
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Suurim negatiivne üllataja tänaselt järelturult on AIG. Aktsia juba ka -10% punases.
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Laevafirmadele pööratakse kuidagi põhjendamatult vähe tähelepanu siin foorumites. TBSI täna väljas väga heade tulemustega, vähem kui kahe kuuga aktsia tõusnud pea 100%. Samuti on suure tõusu läbi teinud EXM, DRYS, GNK. Sektor tundub hetkel kuum olevat ja ilmselt kuumemaks läheb. Või mis targemad asjast arvavad?
