Börsipäev 12. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Tõsistele entusiastidele siis... et Fedexi reedese kasumihoiatuse järgselt on säilitatud varaste futuurihindade juures ettevaatlikkus ning esimesed indikatsioonid viitavad S&P500 futuuri -0.2%lisele muutusele. Eks päeva jooksul vaatame edasi arenguid.
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lihtsalt amazying... pühapäeva öö, vastu esmaspäeva... tööpäev... alga!:)
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Tarkvara tootja CryptoLogic (CRYP) avaldas täna hommikul oma 1. kvartali tulemused. Kellel huvi, saab lugeda siit:
CryptoLogic'i tulemused -
http://www.cryptologic.com/about/index.html , sealt loeb välja , et firma on otsene Playtechi konkurent.
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Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.16 per share, excluding $1.8 mln one-time cost related to senior management change, $0.09 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.25; revenues fell 1.2% year/year to $19.3 mln vs the $19.4 mln consensus.
CRYP'il on pärast USA turult 'ära kolimist' juba tükk aega olnud probleeme ning võrreldes PTEC.Li või GIGMiga ollakse ka kallimalt hinnatud. Siiski interneti kasiino tulusid suutis ka Cryptologic eelmise aasta 1. kvartaliga võrreldes 33% kasvatada. Väidetavalt on agressiivset kasvu näidanud ka nende 2007. aastal tehtud investeering casino.co.uk'sse. Lisaks on juba ainuüksi maikuu jooksul lisatud 3 uut litsenseeritavat.
Samuti mõeldakse ka tuleviku peale ning 1. kvartalis omandati suur osalus Lõuna-Korea mobiili ja arvutimängude arendajast Mobilebiusest. Samuti on tehtud suur investeering Aasia suunas investeerides Mahjong Time'i. Seega kasv on iseenesest olemas ning ka potentsiaal, kuid CRYPi puhul ma pigem ootaks jätkuvalt enne agressiivsemaid reaalseid numbreid, et aktsia hinnataset õigustada.
Plaanid on juhtkonnal igaljuhul ambitsioonikad, sest 2009. aasta lõpuks tahetakse jõuda tagasi oma 2006. aasta müügitulu ja kasumi tasemetele. Müügitulu näidati siis $104 miljonit ja EPSi teeniti $2.03. Wall Street päris nii jõudsasse kosumisse täna ei usu ning prognoosib 2009. aasta müügitulu $90 miljonit ja EPSi $1.38. -
Morgan Keegan alandab täna hommikul FedExi (FDX) soovitust outperformi pealt market performi peale.
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USA turud on oma päeva alustamas pisikeses plussis.
Saksamaa DAX +0.49%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.52%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.27%
Hispaania IBEX +0.83%
Venemaa MICEX +0.69%
Poola WIG +0.70%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.64%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.38%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.07%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq N/A (börs suletud)
Tai Set -0.71%
India Sensex +0.74%
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Watch for Some Downside From Here
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/12/2008 7:41 AM EDT
A great obstacle to happiness is to expect too much happiness.
-- Bernard le Bovier
The market has been uptrending over the last two months based on the theory that the worst is over. In particular, the hope and belief is that financial institutions have already recognized and written off the great bulk of bad debt on their books. In addition, many are hopeful that the economy, while weak, will muddle through without a recession and that the housing market will start to improve. We have fiscal and monetary stimulus that should be kicking in as well, which should help matters.
The big question is whether market players have become too optimistic. Are they expecting things to improve faster than is warranted?
What makes the market optimism particularly troubling is the extent to which it differs from the popular media. The talk in newspapers and on cable news channels is about the continued crisis in housing with foreclosures soaring, the high price of gas and food, and the struggling economy.
The bulls argue that the market is simply looking beyond the current problems, which have been fully discounted, and anticipating better days in the second half of the year. The current issues in the popular media are already fully priced in and should be ignored.
Is that really the case? Have we really priced in and moved beyond the impact of record high oil prices, the worst housing market since the Great Depression and an economy with zero growth?
I have serious doubts that such optimism is justified, and I'm watching very carefully for cracks in the market action to appear. We had some weakness last week but are still holding up quite well. There is a persistent bid under this market, which is causing periodic spikes higher and keeping the bears off-balance.
Although the market action is still generally quite good, there are a variety of negatives lining up. Earnings season is now over and we are starting a seasonally weak time of the year. Optimism, as measured by sentiment polls and other technical indicators, is quite high. Expectations have risen recently, and that means that the impact of mediocre news is now more likely to be negative than positive.
I don't want to sound overly bearish, as there are some very strong sectors in this market, particularly oil, steel, solar energy and select China stocks. There is good money to be made playing the momentum game in certain areas of the market, but we need to watch for a shift in the big picture.
The conditions are very ripe for some downside from here, but as is always the case, timing is everything. We have some very optimistic folks believing the worst is over, and they are going to do battle with the bears. I think they will eventually succumb, but it will be painful to bears who are too aggressive, too early.
We have slightly positive action to kick off the week. Metals and commodity prices helped to drive Europe higher, and oil is retreating slightly. Overall, there isn't much news out there so far, and the market is searching for direction.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VCGH +12.9%, COGT +10.8%, ANN +9.8%, CHTR +8.4%, XMSR +2.5%... M&A news: RADN +46.1% (to be acquired by Comtech-CMTL for $11.50 per share)... Other news: VC + 6.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), BBI + 4.5% (Citigroup discusses proposed CC deal; says negative sentiment overdone), ECA + 4.2% (to split into two energy companies), CNTF + 4.0% (co and Epic Games China sign licensing agreement), HBC + 2.9% (says quartlery profit up, but bad debts jump - Reuters), LDK + 1.5% (still checking), TOT + 1.2% (still checking)... Analyst upgrades: NWK + 7.9% (upgraded to Buy at Brean Murray), CPST + 5.1% (initiated with Buy at Merriman), ZRAN + 5.1% (upgraded to Buy at Piper), TDSC + 4.1% (upgraded to Neutral at Piper), TI + 2.4% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), EP + 1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GENC -21.5%, OMNI -7.1%, TTI -7.0%, VAL -6.3%, IMB -5.2%, MBI -4.6%, S -4.1%, FDX -3.3% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan), IMAX -3.0%, HL -2.1%... Other news: GTE -12.6% (to file form 10-k/a to restate financial statements), CSR -5.0% (announces resignation of President, Shufang Yang), SOV -4.7% (announces a $1 bln common stock offering; announces offering of $500 mln of fixed rate subordinated notes), SOL -3.0% (still checking), ABK -1.8% (down in sympathy with MBI), RTP -1.4% (still checking), MDR -1.1% (Cramer makes negative comments on MadMoney)... Analyst downgrades: LNG -11.0% (downgraded to Underperform at RBC and downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), PSUN -5.2% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), IMCL -4.1% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), SDA -2.0% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), NM -1.5% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), CCOI -1.1% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC and downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen). -
Fed's Evans says Effects Of Fiscal Stimulus To Boost '08 Spending
Fed's Evans says Drag From Residential Construction To Diminish
Fed's Evans says Econ Activity Still At Relatively Sluggish Pace
Fed's Evans says core inflation seen at 1.5%-2% by 2010
Fed's Evans says economic conditions to improve 2H 2008
Fed's Evans says inflation seen improving over medium term -
Tehnoloogiasektor täna eriti tugev, enamus korralikus tõusus ning mõned ka uutel tippudel nagu RIMM, hetkel $141.79.
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Üldiselt on turg parajal teelahkmel ja juba viimased paar nädalat, kui mitte rohkem, otsinud edasist suunda. Ka viimaste päevade järjest kokkukuivavad käibed on seda näitamas. Märtsi põhjadest on tõustud enam kui 10% ning tegelikult edasise tõusu õigustamiseks oleks vaja saada konkreetseid andmeid/viiteid/vms, et USA majandustegevus ikkagi aktiviseerub aasta teises pooles, nagu paljud loodavad. Põhjendusi lootuste realiseerumiseks ju muidugi on - abistavad fiskaalmeetmed, n-ö tasuta raha pärast intressimäärade langetamise maratoni, arenevate riikide nõudlus jne. Kuid kui lootused ei realiseeru ja tarbija on ikkagi muutunud üha ettevaatlikumaks, mida võimendavad tõusvad toidu- ja energiahinnad, siis peaks oma investeeringutega täna küll ettevaatlikum olema.
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Ehk homme tulemused avaldav Wal-Mart annab asjast aimu, kuhu poole see paat liigub. Enne turge. Näis
