Börsipäev 13. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Päris huvitav artiklilõik Bloombergis Los Angelese kinnisvaraturu kohta. Nimelt on hätta sattunud sealne arendaja Meruelo Maddux, kes tegi 2007. aasta alguses IPO. Pärast seda on aktsia kukkunud ca 85%. Häda on selles, et ettevõttel on vaja lähema 12 kuu jooksul refinantseerida oma $200 miljonilist kinnisvara võlga ning käimasolevat ehitust Los Angelese kesklinna kõrgeima eramu puhul, kuid jätkuv krediidikriis on muutnud selle äärmiselt keeruliseks.
Ettevõtte juhtkond on lähiajal tegemas tagurpidi spliti vahemikus 1:3-le kuni 1:10-le, et juurde meelitada institutsionaalseid investoreid. Ise ettevõtte kinnisvara portfelliga tuttav ei ole, kuid igaljuhul nagu Meruelo juhtumist on näha, pole läänekalda kinnisvarakriis jätkuvalt kuhugi kadunud.
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Hellasious toon välja ühe päris murettekitava graafiku - USA riikliku toiduabi (Food Stamps) saajate hulk läbi aastate:
http://suddendebt.blogspot.com/2008/05/food-stamps-and-un-adjusted-economy.html
Huvitaval kombel 2003-2007 kestnud majandustõusu ajal abivajajate hulk oluliselt ei vähenenud. Mis näib indikeerivat, et tegelik inflatsioon kas oli suurem, kui väideti või läks kogu majanduskasv rikaste taskusse (või mõlemat).
Võimalik muidugi ka, et Food Stamps programmi nõudeid on vahepeal leebemaks tehtud, mistõttu rohkem peresid kvalifitseerub. -
Wal-Mart (WMT) suudab oma 1. kvartali tulemustega analüütikute ootusi $0.01 võrra lüüa kasumi osas, kuid üldiselt on raporteeritud numbrid konsensusele vastavad:
$0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.75; revenues rose 10.2% year/year to $94.12 bln vs the $93.47 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.78-0.81 vs. $0.81 consensus. Co sees Q2 comparable store sales increase in the United States to be between flat and two percent.
Wal-Mart'i aktsia on kiire tõusu läbi teinud ja koos sellega ka mitteametlikud ootused kõrgele kruvinud. USA tarbijate halvenevas olukorras võidavad odavamate hinnatasemetega poed nagu Wal-Mart ja lisaks on ettevõtte rahvusvaheline tegevus head kasvu näitamas. Näiteks tõstis Citigroup üleeile Wal-Mart'i hinnasihi $67-ni, märkides Brasiilia turul peituvat tohutut potentsiaali. Seega olid vaid ootustele vastavad tulemused pigem pettumuseks ja aktsia on eelturul kauplemas 2% võrra miinuses. -
Bernanke jälle sõna võtmas:
Bernanke says financial conditions far from normal, Fed ready to increase TAF auctions as warranted
Bernanke says sees better conditions in financing markets
Kogu tekst Bernanke jutust:
DJ reports Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the Fed's recent liquidity measures have led to improved market conditions including a narrowing of credit spreads and better performance of repurchase agreement mkts. But he warned that mkt conditions "are still far from normal" and pledged to increase the size of the Fed's term auction facility - which has already been more than tripled since its inception in late 2007 - if needed... Bernanke ticked off a list of markets that have seen better conditions recently, including the Treasury repo market, agency mortgage-backed securities, jumbo mortgages and corporate debt. "These are welcome signs," Bernanke said, "but at this stage conditions in financial markets are still far from normal," he said. Though credit spreads have narrowed, Bernanke said they remain elevated, "and pressures in short-term funding markets persist."
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Korralike tulemustega väljas ka GigaMedia (GIGM) (eesotsas president Hui'ga:) ) lööb kasumi osas konsensust $0.02
GIGM Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.20 per share, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.18; revenues rose 51.2% year/year to $54.6 mln vs the $51.5 mln consensus.
Tulemused ise siin
Hetkel aktsia ca 4% plussis. -
Research In Motion (RIMM) saanud täna kõvasti upgrade ja hinnasihte on tõstetud peale eilset investorpäeva päris kobedalt mitme analüüsimaja poolt:
Research In Motion tgt upped to $165 from $140 at Citigroup following investor day
Research In Motion: Hearing tgt raised to $148 from $145 at tier 1 firm
Research In Motion: Uninterrupted momentum - Oppenheimer, firm raises their unit shipment ests and tgt to $160 from $150 -
Makroandmed enam vähem ootustesse:
April Retail Sales ex-autos +0.5% vs +0.2% consensus, prior revised to +0.4% from +0.1%
April Retail Sales -0.2% vs -0.2% consensus
April Import Prices y/y +15.4% vs +15.0% consensus, prior revised to +14.9% from +14.8%
April Import Prices m/m +1.8% vs +1.6% consensus, prior revised to +2.9% from +2.8% -
Saksamaa DAX +0.09%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.68%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.51%
Hispaania IBEX -0.26%
Venemaa MICEX +0.10%
Poola WIG +0.14%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.53%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.95%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.84%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.73%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.33%
Tai Set -0.48%
India Sensex -0.64%
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Trade What You See
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/13/2008 7:51 AM EDT
Trade what you see, not what you believe.
-- Kevin N. Marder
The great challenge of the stock market is dealing with action that is inconsistent with what we believe. Unfortunately, most investors tend to believe that the proper way to invest is to formulate some sort of grand thesis about what the market should do and then wait for it to happen.
This approach to investing really isn't that surprising given what we see in the media day in and day out. Financial journalism is dominated by pontificating pundits who can't wait to share with us how things will unfold over the next several years.
The problem with this sort of big-picture thinking is that the timing is never precise. Virtually all predictions made by pundits will eventually be proved correct if we wait long enough, but we will forgo some tremendous opportunities in the interim. Back in the late 1990s, a number of folks predicted that the market would eventually fall, but if you listened to them and acted prematurely you would have missed out on one of the most profitable runs in history in 1999-2000.
I'm not saying that we should avoid formulating a market thesis, just that we need to focus on timing. Too many market pundits are forgiven their poor timing. Just because they present a controversial view, the media will overlook the fact that investors who followed them would have been buried.
Timing is everything in the market. Being right is cold comfort if you have suffered severe losses while waiting for the market to do what you think it would. It is imperative that you trade what you see in front of you even it if is at odds with what you believe.
As I've postulated here numerous times lately, I believe that the market is vulnerable to suffering another downleg. I don't believe the "worst is over" rally is going to continue unabated.
Yesterday the market didn't much care what I thought and managed to produce a big gain. That hasn't changed my thinking about where things are eventually headed, but rather than fight the positive market action, I adapted. I took stops on some index longs and put on some long-side trades.
One of the other problems with big-picture thinking is that it makes it very easy to overlook some of the pockets of strength in the market. The stock market is not a monolithic beast. There are always some sectors that are moving contrary to the broad market. Recently you could have done extremely well trading groups like oil, agriculture, steel and solar energy, which have essentially ignored the major indices.
Yes, we want to consider the larger picture, but we don't want to be so dogmatic that we ignore the many opportunities that arise each day. I still think the market is going to run into some problems, but until it actually does I'm going to focus on the price action and trade what is in front of me.
We have a little weakness to start the day as Wal-Mart (WMT) pulls back after issuing an in-line report and slightly soft guidance.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FSYS +18.6%, CSIQ +17.3%, KNXA +15.1%, NTWK +13.6%, ULTR +11.1%, FLR +7.2%, PAL +5.8%, WRNC +5.4%, BE +5.4%, BYI +4.3%, PGIC +3.5%, PBR +3.0%, PSEC +2.7%, GIGM +1.9%, CCJ +1.7%... M&A news: IOMI 110.3% (Intercell AG to buy Iomai in a cash deal worth $6.60/share), EDS 0.9% (HPQ confirms it will acquire EDS for $25/share)... Other news: CKXE +6.2% (revised purchase offer from 19X for $12 per share), FWLT +3.8% (up in sympathy with FLR), CFX +3.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), OC +2.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), EMR +1.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), SOLF +1.2% (HOKU Scientific and Solarfun approve amendment and extension of polysilicon supply agreement)... Analyst upgrades: MEDX + 3.1% (upgraded to Buy at Needham), BOOM + 2.1% (upgraded to Buy at Keybanc).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CRZ -15.8%, USS -14.3%, DFR -11.3%, VVTV -10.3%, FXEN -9.1%, LDK -7.0%, HOKU -6.8% (also files for a $110 mln mixed shelf offering and co and Solarfun approve amendment and extension of polysilicon supply agreement), ABP -6.0%, NUAN -6.0%, WSPI -5.8%, WNR -4.2%, DISH -3.1%, SIL -2.6%, VGR -2.0%, HPQ -1.8% (also confirms it will acquire EDS for $13.9 bln and hearing removed from Americas Conviction Buy List at tier 1 firm), WMT -1.5%... Select European financial names trading lower following weakness in overseas trading: RBS -3.6%, BCS -2.5%, UBS -1.9%, DB -1.3%, ING -1.0%... Select gold stocks showing weakness with lower spot prices: AU -2.1%, AUY -2.1%, GOLD -1.9%, NEM -1.5%, GFI -1.3%, GLD -1.1%... Other news: DT -8.5% (holder KfW to sell convertible bond - Bloomberg.com), PPC -6.8% (agrees to underwritten offering of common stock), TRLG -6.7% (still checking), TBSI -6.6% (announced follow-on offering of 3.4 million common shares), NAT -4.5% (announces that it has commenced an offering of 4 mln shares), HT -2.8% (announces commencement of public offering of 6 mln common shares), ASML -2.7% (still checking), NLY -2.5% (files for 40 mln share common stock offering), TS -1.4% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: GNA -3.7% (downgraded to Hold at KeyBanc), LHCG -2.8% (downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia), MNT -2.8% (downgraded to Hold at Lazard Capital), HBHC -2.0% (downgraded to Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette), BKUNA -1.4% (downgraded to Hold at Sterne Agee), CETV -1.3% (hearing downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm). -
Bank of America (BAC) tõstis bloombergi andmetel kodulaenudega seoses mahakantavate varade mahu üle 2.5% järgnevaks kvartaliks eelnenud vahemikust 2.0-2.5%.
Bank of America Corp raised its forecast of home-equity loan losses to more than 2.5 percent. Liam McGee, president of the Charlotte, North Carolina- based company's consumer division, gave the new forecast at a conference in New York sponsored by UBS AG. The bank previously projected a loss rate of between 2 percent and 2.5 percent. McGee also said the bank's credit-card customers are "showing stress" as they increase spending on necessities instead of travel and entertainment. -
Toornafta futuurid tegid jällegi uued tipud, jõudes $126.98 barrel tasemele.
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Fed-i poolt Yellen sõna võtmas:
Fed's Yellen says Doubts US Is Facing Stagflation Environment
Fed's Yellen says Inflation To Moderate On Rising Economic Slack
Fed's Yellen says Inflation 'Disappointing,' On 'High Side'
Fed's Yellen says monetary, fiscal stimulus should lift econ in 2H - DJ
Fed's Yellen says '08 Econ Likely To See 'Very Sluggish Performance'
Fed's Yellen says Housing Sector Downturn Unlikely To Abate
Fed's Yellen says Economy Is 'Weak Across Most Sectors'
Fed's Yellen says Risks Around Growth Outlook 'Unusually Large'
Fed's Yellen says Credit Markets Are 'Still Far From Normal'
Fed's Yellen says Sees 'Rays Of Hope' Credit Troubles Are Waning
Futuurid püsivad samal tasemel. -
Yellen, Fisher, Hoenig korraga rääkimas. Kas tegemist oli sama üritusega ja kas seda läbi veebi oleks saanud jälgida?
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momentum, minu teada neid üritusi üle ei kanta. Aga kui keegi on sattunud lingi peale, siis andke teada. Hoenig ütles täna ilusti otse välja, et inflatsioon on kontrolli alt väljas. Intresside langetamine ametlikult lõpetatud?
Fed's Hoenig says US inflation at unacceptable levels -
Fed-i mehed täna väga jutukad ning väljas märkimisväärsete kommentaaridega:
Fed's Stern says US not likely to avoid a recession
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Futuurid tegid Stern-i jutu peale väikse jõnksu alla, kuid tehnoloogiasektor veab turgu uuesti üles ning nagu viimastel päevadel kombeks jäävad käibed siiski keskmistest pea poole võrra väiksemateks.
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Homsed Fedi kõnemehed/-naised siis neil kellaaegadel:
Rosengren (8:30), Kroszner (9:15), Lockhart (12) and Yellen (16:40).
Ja enne turgu tuleb oluline tarbijahinna raport. -
RealMoney all on Robert Marcin avaldanud arvamust nafta ja energiahindade osas ning et kas lubada toormaterjalidele spetsialiseerunud fondidel end näiteks 20x naftas võimendada või mitte (kui võimendust ei kasutata, on positsiooni võtmine ka 'kallim' ehk tuleb reaalset raha rohkem välja käia). Tema arvates on vastus 'ei' ning kui tõusvate hindade korral see mõtteviis rohkem poolehoidu peaks saama, siis oleks tulemuseks ka nende eluks vajalike toidu- ja energiahindade korralik langus. Aga head lugemist:
Robert Marcin
My Two Cents on Speculation
5/13/2008 3:47 PM EDT
I think people should be permitted to speculate, but not when it distorts pricing in necessities for basis survival. I don't give a rat's bottom if they bid up tech stocks or junk bonds to insane prices, or art, or stamps, or Florida condos. We don't eat or drive collectibles, net stocks, or vacation homes. Wait, I guess I should worry about real estate if I have to bail out the condo flippers.
But it does matter if investors lever up big to drive oil, gas, beef, and corn prices higher. It does matter if basic human staples are bid up as a mo-mo trade. That hits too close to survival for so many people less fortunate than we.
Haven't we already learned that moronic investors will bid up "trading beans" to stupid prices, especially on margin, then things will crash? Didn't we just learn that with housing? Aren't we still suffering from the housing bust? Well, I don't want the same for eating beans. And yes, I am more right than "the market" on this.
Let people over leverage themselves to buy Cisco. Let them borrow up insanely to flip Miami condos. Just don't come knock on my door to bail them out. And make sure that when they speculate in oil or food, they do it for cash. If the clearing price for oil is really $125, it should be so without commodity funds levering 10 or 20 to 1. It should really be so because real users say it is so. We can't outlaw speculation on energy or food. But, we can make it more expensive. And we should. speculating in oil or corn? Good luck. Pay cash. -
Jah, andke teada kui keegi ametnike retoorika jälgimiseks reaalajas webcastide linke leiab (või TV programmi leiab). Video oleks nummi, heli ajaks ka asja ära.
Jah, intresside langetamine sai täna "ametliku lõpu". Nimelt täna intressifutuuride implied probability 100% peal intressitõusu näitamas et aasta lõpuks on 25 bps hike, veel eile oluliselt vähem ehk sisuliselt võib öelda, et turg otsustas täna, et enne aasta lõppu tuleb vähemalt 25 bps hike. Positiivne USD-le, tugevam USD negat commodityrele. -
lauris71,
Hommikul ei jõudnud sinu poolt antud lingi sisusse süveneda, kuid tegelikult on seal väärt lugemist. Kes ei vaadanud, siis soovitan pilgu peale heita. Toidutalongide väärtused on viimastel aastatel olnud üpriski püsivalt $95 ringis ning arvestades, et ca 27 miljonit ameeriklast neid vajab, illustreerib minu arust päris hästi USA majanduse kurnatust. Igaljuhul hea graafik Food Stampside kasutamise kohta.
