Börsipäev 19. mai
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Sellenädalane majandusandmete kalender ei ole just kuigi tihe, kuid sisukas sellegipoolest. Täna kell 17 teatatakse aprillikuu juhtivad indikaatorid, homme enne turgu tootjahinnaindeks, kolmapäeval Föderaalreservi viimase istungi protokoll, neljapäeval esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate arv (oodatakse jätkuvalt püsimist 370K juures) ning reedel olemasolevate majade müüginumbrid, kus ootusteks aastasel baasil 4.85 miljonit maja, mis oleks viimase aja kasinam müük. Ehituslubade arv ja alustatud ehitiste arv on kasvanud, kas aga majade müüginumbrid reaalselt suurenevad, on juba teine küsimus. Seni pole müüginumbrite kasv kohe kuidagi tahtnud edeneda.
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Läänerindel muutusteta...ehk USA futuurid alustavad nullist või pisukesest plussist.
Saksamaa DAX +0.41%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.53%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.56%
Hispaania IBEX +0.41%
Venemaa MICEX +0.40%
Poola WIG -1.15%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.35%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.48%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.54%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.27%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.01%
Tai Set N/A (börs suletud)
India Sensex N/A (börs suletud)
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Broader Leadership Could Sustain the Rally
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/19/2008 8:16 AM EDT
It is better to trust the eyes rather than the ears.
-- German proverb
The essential question of this stock market is very obvious at this point: Do we trust the rally from the March lows to continue? Have we put the worst financial crisis in decades behind us, and are we now ready to see steady market improvement from here?
As always, there are good arguments for both sides. The bulls are saying that although there still seem to be plenty of negatives out there, we have already fully discounted them and the market is looking ahead.
The bears proclaim that this is just a typical bear-market rally where the bulls have become too hopeful too soon and are overlooking the severity of the problems we still face.
The bearish argument makes more sense to me, but one thing I've learned over the years is that we must always defer to price action over macroeconomic arguments. Trying to determine where the market is headed by arguing about the fundamentals is a fruitless task. Over and over again, the market action ignores the most compelling and logical arguments. Trying to win an argument with the stock market is like trying to reason with a crazy person -- the market is going to do what it wants regardless of what we may think.
I bring this up because so many people are incredulous over the recent market strength. A lot of very savvy market pros have been on the wrong side of the recent strength, and that is one of the reasons we keep on going. They are worried about being wrong and being left out, so they bite the bullet and chase some buys, which drives things up further and causes more skeptical folks to be anxious.
What has contributed to the difficulty of the recent market action is that sector leadership has been very intense. A few groups, notably oil, steel, mining and cyclicals of various types, have led this market. Some of these stocks are extremely extended now, but if you really wanted to benefit from this market you had to be in those groups rather than bottom-fishing "value" names that bore the brunt of the damage of the market meltdown.
In other words, the market rally has been mostly about the strongest stocks becoming even stronger rather than lagging stocks recovering. We had a particularly good illustration of this Friday, as the Bank Index (BKX) sold off 2.26% while the Oil Sevices HOLDRs (OIH) rallied 2.73%.
What this market rally needs at this point to prove that is real is to broaden out to other sectors. There is an article in the Wall Street Journal that discusses a study that concludes that the stocks that are leading us now are not those that typically lead us out of a bear market. What we need are stocks that are driven by consumer spending. We have had some recent strength in technology stocks, particularly semiconductors (Goldman even upgrades the sector this morning, which is helpful). However, we need something other than energy and cyclicals to take a leadership role here soon.
So rather than fall into the macroeconomic arguments over the health of the market, we need to focus on the price action in key sectors. If oil and cyclicals keep going, can the action broaden out? Do we get some new leadership, or do the momentum traders just keep on piling into the same stocks that have led all year?
This is very tricky now because the best market sectors are now becoming extremely extended. New buy points are becoming very hard to find unless we see some sort of correction in those hot sectors soon. And if that happens, will other market sectors perk up and fill the void?
In the early going today, things are flat. Oil is up strongly once again and other than the Goldman upgrade of semiconductors, there isn't a lot of news.
Good luck and go get 'em.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PWRD +2.2%... Select solar stocks showing continued strength: SOLF +10.0%, CSUN +8.5%, ASTI +6.0%, JASO +3.7%, ESLR +2.5%, YGE +2.3%, SPWR +2.1% (announces third Solar-Cell Fab), FSLR +1.2%... Select gold names showing strength with slightly higher spot prices: GOLD +2.7%, AUY +2.1%, AEM +2.0%, ABX +1.5%... Other news: MTZ +11.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), BTRX +8.9% (SAC Capital discloses 6.3% stake in 13G filing), CPST +6.0% (still checking), SCMP +4.6% (New AMITIZA phase III studies demonstrated overall symptom improvement in adult women with irritable bowel syndrome with constipation), BIDZ +2.1% (acquires $23.9 million lot of finished jewelry from bankruptcy auction), AZN +1.9% (still checking), PKG +1.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), NOK +1.6% (wins contract from TIM in Brazil to supply wireless network - Bloomberg), YHOO +1.6% (remains open to value maximizing transactions; Microsoft is considering and has raised with Yahoo! an alternative that would involve a transaction with Yahoo!), EMC +1.6% and INTC +1.2% (still checking)... Analyst upgrades: NCC +4.8% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), AMZN +3.1% (hearing coverage assumed with Buy at tier 1 firm), TXN +2.2% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), CPWR +2.1% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), AAUK +1.2% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NEXC -40.7% (very light volume following resumption of trading), LOW -3.6%, CPB -1.0%... Other news: MPG -8.6% (confirms it has replaced President and CEO with Nelson Rising), BCE -7.9% (NY Times reports BCE buyout is in trouble), RBS -7.6% (following weakness in overseas trading after target cut at tier 1 firm), FEED -4.8% (Barron's comments on AgFeed consultant), ETFC -3.7% (sells stake in India-based financial services firm - NY Post), MTW -3.7% (revises its offer to acquire Enodis plc for $2.4 bln), GNK -3.3% (commences public offering of primary and secondary shares of its common stock), UN -3.0% (still checking), HD -2.1% (down in sympathy with LOW), RTP -1.6% and BHP -1.5% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst downgrades: TRA -4.1% (initiated with Sell at tier 1 firm), HOLX -3.4% (downgraded to Hold at Soleil), AKAM -2.6% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), GRMN -2.0% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham), AEO -1.9% (downgraded to Underperform at FBR), CAL -1.6% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), BUCY -1.3% (downgraded to Hold at Keybanc), JOYG -1.2% (downgraded to Hold at Keybanc), DIS -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Pali Research). -
April Leading Indicators +0.1% vs 0.0% consensus, prior +0.1%
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märke majanduslangusest tuleb iga päev ... Dow Jones Transportation indeks on 52 nädala tippudele liginemas, huvitav kuidas kütuse hind viimase 52 nädala jooksul liikunud on? :)
Dow Jones Transportation Average on Dow Jones Industrial Average vastu ca +20% outperform 6 kuuga ... mida see Dow teooria rääkis? -
Cramer oli täna hommikul RealMoney all õhinaga seletamas, et miks kõrge naftahind ei oma enam olulist negatiivset mõju aktsiaturgudele. Tema loogika siis selles, et see suurendab nõudlust efektiivsemate lennukite, autode, masinate, seadmete järele, mis oleksid energiasäästlikumad.
Eks siin oma iva ole, aga nagu öeldakse - it can only go so far - ehk teatud hinna juures ei ole ka suurem efektiivsus piisavaks peibutiseks investeeringu tegemisel... -
Finantssektori liikumist kajastav XLF on hetkel tõusmas. Kes soovib turu tõusu jätkumist näha, selle jaoks on ka finantssektori tõus oluline, sest ilma finantsita ei ole ka järjepidevat aktsiaturu ülespoole rühkimist.
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Nõrgemad sektor ETF-id keskpäevaks:
Base Metals- DBB -1.95%, Ags.- DBA -0.80%, Heating Oil- UHN -0.80%, Commodities- GSG -0.60%, DBC -0.35%, Oil- USO -0.30%, and Gasoline- UGA -0.30%
Tugevaimad sektor ETF-id:
Coal- KOL +4.2%, Solars- TAN +4.2%, KWT +3.3%, Clean Energy- PBW +3.8%, Transportation- IYT +2.5%, Internet- HHH +2.4%, Industrials- XLI +1.6%, and Semis- SMH +1.55%, IGW +1.3%. -
Henno poolt eelpool mainitud Dow Transportation kohta veidi detailsem sisevaade, väga tugev sektor olnud viimasel ajal ning indeksi tugevuse teeb eriliseks veel ka see, et tugev tõus vaatamata kivina kaelas rippuvale lennutranspordile:
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/05/transports-at-n.html -
Eelpool mainitud teemast on pisut juttu ka siin: http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2008/05/shift-from-roads-to-rails.html
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kui finantsinnovatsioon ja sellest tulenevad kvturu kukkumine ja credit crunch ei suutnud viimast kabelimatsu Usale ära panna siis lihtne must kuld teeb selle peagi ära.
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Turu entusiasm on vähenenud SanDiski (SNDK) kommentaaride peale aprilli äri kohta päeva keskel peetud JP Morgani Tehnoloogiaettevõtete konverentsil.
