Börsipäev 30. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
-
Just praegu kukkus nafta hind alla $125 ning on täna siis üle -1.3% punases...
-
UAUA ja LCC ühinemine päevakorrast maas. Nüüd tahaks veel, et nafta tõusma hakkaks :)
-
EUR hakkab USD vastu pead vist tõstma jälle?
-
USA turud on päeva alustamas 0.3% kuni 0.4% plussis.
Saksamaa DAX +0.91%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.84%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.61%
Hispaania IBEX +0.59%
Venemaa MICEX +0.75%
Poola WIG +0.46%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.52%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.61%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.95%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.77%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.83%
Tai Set +0.04%
India Sensex +0.61%
-
Winds of Change?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/30/2008 8:57 AM EDT
True life is lived when tiny changes occur.
-- Count Leo Tolstoy
The market has been undergoing some significant changes in the last few days, once again stirring up hopes that the "worst is over" rally is back on. The bullish case at this point is that oil has topped out and the dollar has bottomed. The Fed is apparently now in the ideal situation of having an economy that is just slow enough to keep inflation in check but is strong enough where no further rate cuts are needed.
In addition, the financial sector has bottomed, and we now are undergoing a transition to new leadership from cyclical growth groups like steel and oil and into technology, retail and biotech.
These changes are causing some real chaos in sector leadership but have the big-picture bulls feeling quite excited. The key here is that oil does top and the dollar does find support. If those conditions do not persist, then the bullish case becomes much more problematic.
Good earnings from Dell (DELL) and Marvell (MRVL) last night are helping the argument for technology as new leadership, but we already have oils bouncing back this morning, and I don't believe that the group is going to go away without a significant fight.
What has really made the market tricky recent are the sharp swings in leading sectors. Solar energy is a particularly good example. On Wednesday, the group was up strongly as oil prices continued to rise. Yesterday the group was hit hard on a downgrade by Merrill Lynch, a sharp drop in crude and rumors that German subsidies would be cut. This morning the group is up sharply again as news hits that Germany is supporting solar energy after all.
Trying to trade that sort of action in a coherent fashion is nearly impossible, and it isn't just solar energy that has been jerked around recently. Steel, mining, oil, fertilizers and all the other groups that have outperformed the market lately are undergoing similar volatility, which is not seen if you just look at the major indices.
The key today will be to see if the rotation out of cyclicals and oil and into technology and retail can continue. There is good news in the technology sector to support it, but the indices are now running into technical overhead, and end-of-the-month window-dressing pressures will start to ease today.
Like many other traders, I've been having a very difficult time lately navigating the sector swings and have sold down positions significantly. My game plan is to simply wait until I see some clearly trends that last longer than a day. Right now we are in a state of flux, and it's too easy to be whipsawed if you are overly aggressive.
We have a positive open on the way, but oil and gold are bouncing, which is going to determine which way this market goes.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MRVL +17.0% (also upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer and upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), ITI +11.1%, DELL +9.9% (also upgraded to Buy at Merrill), WIND +8.3%, FRPT +6.1% (also announces that the co and General Dynamics look to expand partnership - Bloomberg), GHM +5.7% (very light volume), WTSLA +4.0% (also upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), HEI +2.8%, TIF +2.7%, SEAC +2.2%... M&A news: KNTA +64.7% (to be acquired by BLKB for $1.12/share), QNTA +41.0% (to be acquired By Catalina Holdings for $2.80/share in cash), FIRE +13.1% (Barracuda Barracuda Networks proposes to acquire Sourcefire for $7.50/share in cash; FIRE subsequently rejects unsolicited acquisition proposal)... Select solar stocks set to gap up on reports of lower German subsidy cuts: FSLR +7.1%, STP +6.7%, JASO +6.4%, SPWR +6.3%, SOL +5.9%, CY +5.4% (majority shareholder of SPWR), YGE +5.3%, LDK +4.2%, AKNS +4.0%, ESLR +3.9%, ASTI +3.4%... Other news: HRS +6.1% (began fielding expressions of interest from potential buyers this week, with preliminary bids for the co arriving in the low $70/share range - WSJ), ES +4.5% (wins Department of Energy tank operations contract at Hanford: DOE values the contract at $7.1 bln), CSU +2.5% (co's special committee engages financial advisor), F +2.4% (Tracinda waives tender offer condition relating to Ford share price decline), PEIX +2.3% (closes $28.5 mln financing through the sale of 6.0 mln units), AMAT +2.1% (Abu Dhabi Future Energy is significantly expanding its investment in solar energy by contracting with Applied Materials), ITW +1.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: SNE +4.3% (upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm), ADCT +2.4% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), CLHB +2.2% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), AIG +2.0% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: QADI -24.4%, JCG -18.4% (also downgraded to Sell at Citigroup and downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia), SIGM -16.7% (also downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC, downgraded to Hold at Lazard Capital and downgraded to Hold at Roth Capital), MDCI -15.9%, OVTI -6.7%, TCM -2.6% (light volume)... Other news: DB -5.9% (stock goes ex-dividend today for $5.50 dividend), JBLU -4.1% (prices offering of 44.9 mln shares of common stock at $3.70; co also announced the pricing of it convertible debentures offering), ALTH -3.6% (announces the closing of its previously announced public offering at a public offering price of $5.64/share), UAUA -3.5% and LCC -2.8% (merger of United Airlines, US Airways is off the table for now - WSJ; LCC's CEO says consolidation involving US Airways will not occur at this time), UBS -2.2% (still checking), BHP -1.3% (notifies EU Regulator of Rio bid, triggers review - Bloomberg.com), SAP -1.0% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: IDTI -5.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Cowen), OSTK -4.4% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill), SPC -1.4% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital). -
Fed-i Rosengren kõnelemas.
Fed's Rosengren says housing start drop a plus for housing outlook
Fed's Rosengren says servicers should step up loan modifictions
Fed's Rosengren says falling house prices still pose "significant" downside risks to economy
Fed's Rosengren says monetary, fiscal policy should lift econ 2H
Fed's Rosengren says drop in U.S. housing starts most severe in 50 years -
Üpriski lahja ja igav päev börsidel. Käibed on ka korralikult kokku kuivanud. Suvi tuleb : )
