Börsipäev 12. juuni
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Euroopa turud põrkamas peale eilset tugevat langust. Euroala 15 riigi statistika kohaselt kasvas tööstustoodang 0.9% aprillis, mis oli positiivseks üllatuseks ning kasvatas optimismi investorite seas. USA-s kell 15.30 avaldatavad makroandmed on turgudele kindlasti üheks suunaandijaks ning hetkel kergelt taanduvad toornafta futuurid annavad võimaluse põrkeks.
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U.K. rahandusministeeriumi statistika kohaselt ei ole toorainete hinnatõusu taga spekulandid:
Speculators have had little to do with soaring commodity prices, the U.K. Treasury said in a report released Thursday. While commodities have become an increasingly attractive asset class, data show no consistent relationship between rising investment activity and prices across commodities, the report said. "In addition, were financial market activity itself driving higher commodity prices, it might be expected that stocks would be increasing as prices would be above that required to clear the spot market. However, current data shows that inventories, which for food commodities have been low for some time, have continued to fall or remain stable," the report said -
10. juuni börsipäevas sai natuke puudutatud etanooliaktsiate tulevikku. Täna on Citi väljas downgrade'ga, põhjused järgnevad:
* Corn Prices Increase Substantially After Recent Floods - In the last 10 days the world has changed in the corn market with massive flooding causing Cornell Burnette irreparable damage to this year's crop and pushing corn prices up $1 over this time frame.
* Ethanol Margins Plummet - As a result of this unprecedented weather event which has happened only twice in the last 25 years, ethanol margins have plummeted over the same ten day time span with small and mid size ethanol producers now running at substantial losses against cash costs.
Pure-playdest langetati BioFueli (BIOF) ja Verasuni (VSE) reiting "osta" pealt "müü" peale.
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EUR/USD on 1.54 taseme ligidal liikumas, mis siis sõltuvalt valuutast on 3 kuu tipp või põhi ja ühtlasi ka oluline toetus või vastupanu
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U.K. rahandusministeeriumi statistika peale toon siia välja CL graafiku.
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Morgan Stanley on tõstnud kogu USA finantssektori väljavaateid "underweigt"-ilt "neutral" peale ja lisaks langetati energiasektori väljavaateid.
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Täpsemalt on Morgan Stanley toiminud nii
We are upgrading Financials and downgrading Energy. We are taking our long-held underweight on Financials back to neutral by adding JPM and AIG and reducing our long-held overweight on Energy by removing OXY. -
May Retail Sales +1.0% vs +0.5% consensus, prior revised to +0.4% from -0.2%
May Retail Sales ex-auto +1.2% vs +0.7% consensus, prior revised to +1.0% from +0.5%
Initial Jobless Claims 384K vs 370K consensus; prior revised to 359K from 357K -
Turg rõõmustab jaemüügi näitajate tõusu üle... aga töötu abiraha taotluste arvu kasv küll hea uudis ei ole.
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$50 miljardit maksutagastusi on seega laiaks löödud, $100 miljardit on järgi.
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AU Optroncis Corp (AUO), the world's No.3 LCD maker, said on Thursday its plan to build a new LCD plant was on track and it would allocate T$100 billion ($3.3 billion) for the first stage of construction.
Selge näide nõudlusest. Aktsia on minu meelest põhjendamatult odav, aga kardetakse vist nõrka majandust ja nõudluse kadumist, hinnasurvet ja konkurentsi suuremate tootjate poolt.
Samas on mai lõpust pärit järgmine lõik: "For the second half, we know the third quarter is a hot season, so supply will be a bit tight," said Chen, whose company supplies LCDs to top PC sellers such as Dell Inc and Hewlett-Packard Co and some TV brands.
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Lehman Brothers: CFO Erin Callan, COO Joseph Gregory out at LEH
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enek?
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Kus nüüd LEH sõbrad on? :)
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Ma püüan ennast taltsutada, et mitte shortida Lehmanit.. ilmselt suudan sellega hakkama saada siiski. Parem mitte sellist asja puutuda.
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mine 100 aktsiaga shordiks siin:P:)
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Lehman Brothers: CNBC commentator discusses potential for a sale of the co, says there is "no way Lehman can survive independently"
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Nojah, ikkagi natuke short LEH @ 22.57. Oleks saanud paremat hinda ka, aga noh, oleks-shmoleks. Liiga kaua suutsin end taltsutada ikkagi :)
Positsiooni põhjus: krt, see on liiga suur jama kõik kokku. -
Ja cover @ $22.21. Tuli meelde, et krt, see pole ikkagi minu mäng :)
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Indeksid teisel pool ookeani ehk USAs on päeva alustamas jõulise +0.6% kuni +0.8%lise plussiga. Tõelist 'pesupäeva' pole aktsiaturgudel ikka veel olnud ning ka tänane ülevalt avanemine ei aita põhja moodustamisele kuidagi kaasa...
Saksamaa DAX +0.58%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.35%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.47%
Hispaania IBEX +1.40%
Venemaa MICEX N/A (börs suletud)
Poola WIG -0.01%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.08%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.30%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.22%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.21%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.71%
Tai Set -0.02%
India Sensex +0.43%
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Lehman Brothers: Ladenburg Thalmann analyst Dick Bove, on CNBC, says this was an appropriate move.
Ladenburg Thalmann analyst Dick Bove, on CNBC, says this was an appropriate move. Says co was not on track. Says these people deserve to be fired since they did things wrong. Says the co will survive and believes it will survive as an independent co (says there are no buyers for the co). Will not make very much money for anybody for a while. See no reason why co cant survive independently. -
ma rohkemale ei julgeks aga oma 50 eegule veaks kihla, et alla 20 esimese tunniga.
P.S. dont pls try this at home -
Hästi pisikeselt uuesti shorti @ $21.91. $22 taseme murdmine noh, youknow :D
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Cover @ 21.51. Ei taha avanemiseks kätte jätta justicase.
Tegelt, peaks eemale hoidma, see on nõme mängimine. -
Time for a Bear Market Plan
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/12/2008 9:09 AM EDT
"There is only one side of the market, and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side."
--Jesse Livermore
With the benefit of hindsight, it is now very clear that the "worst is over" rally we have enjoyed over the past couple of months was nothing more than a classic bear market bounce. Of course, it felt like something other than just a temporary bounce, or it wouldn't have drawn in as many buyers as it did. The thing that ultimately makes bear markets so difficult is that they the constantly build up hope before disappointment sets in again. It is crushed hopes and dreams that lead to giving up on the market and an eventual bottom.
The important thing to realize at this point is that we are still grappling with a correction. There will be the usual choir of folks proclaiming that a bottom is near and that we have to hurry up and buy or risk being left out, but that view is not supported at all by the indices' technical condition. All the major indices are now back in downtrends, and while they are oversold enough to give us some trading bounces, they are not supportive of building longer-term positions at this time.
What investors need to do right now is come up with a plan for dealing with a bear market. Unfortunately, the most common approach, which is greatly encouraged by traditional Wall Street and the business media, is to simple wait it out. If you like the stocks you own, you should simply ignore the fact that they might be weak and wait for a better market to bail you out.
The problem with this approach is that in a bad market, stocks often go down much further than you think they will. Just to get back to even can take a very long time and will certainly make it difficult to produce superior returns.
As I discussed in my book "Invest Like a Shark", I believe that the best way to deal with a difficult market is to be aggressive in your selling. Selling is a fantastic strategic tool that people are afraid to use in part because they fail to embrace how simple it is to undo.
Selling is nothing more than a cheap form of insurance. If it turns out that you have to buy back your favorite stocks at higher prices, it is usually a very cheap price to pay for the safety you get from holding cash when the market is in a bear mode as it is now.
The folks who suffer the most in bear markets are those who refuse to be proactive. They ride things down for long periods of time, and then feel like they have no choice but to simply sit and hold.
You don't have to dump all your holdings because we are in a bear market, but you should have a strategy for dealing with ones that are losing you money. Make sure you have a plan to cut losses at some point, and then stick with it.
After the pounding we suffered Wednesday, we have a bit of a bounce this morning, but this is the sort of reflexive thing you'd expect after the market was down so sharply. What we need to watch for now is the tendency of people to sell into strength as they escape from positions they feel trapped in. Above all else, keep in mind that we are clearly grappling with a bear market, and that means you need to focus on protecting capital.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AIRT +22.6%, CYBX +13.0%, OCCF +10.7%, CASY +5.2%, ENS +5.2%... M&A news: ABI 12.5% (to be acquired by Invitrogen for $38/share), BUD +8.2% (confirms Receipt of unsolicited proposal from InBev for $65/share)... Select financial stocks rebounding boosted by Morgan Stanley upgrade of U.S Financials: IBN +5.4%, WM +3.5%, WB +2.8%, UBS +3.5%, WFC +3.3%, LEG +2.2%, BAC +1.0%, ING +2.6%, JPM +1.7%, DB +1.2%... Other news: TMY +15.0% (announced before the close that United Energy Group Limited to invest ~$215 mln in co), CMZ +13.5% (announced the Board of Directors has determined to commence a process to seek a buyer for all of the outstanding common shares), GERN +8.7% (presents data showing that its embryonic stem cell therapeutic for heart failure evades direct attack by the human immune system), CMI +4.9% (still checking), BZP +4.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), SNG +3.8% (still checking), SHPGY +3.0% (still checking), ASIA +2.5% (wins tender to develop ODS for China Telecom), TAP +2.4% (up in sympathy with BUD), RTP +1.9%, CCOI +1.6% (announces that its board of directors has authorized the co to repurchase up to an additional $50 mln of its shares of common stock), ARNA +1.3% (presented 'positive' Phase 2a clinical trial results of APD125 for the treatment of insomnia), C +1.2% (confirms it will restructure Old Lane and its multi-strategy hedge fund)... Analyst upgrades: CYTR +15.5% (initiated with a Buy at Brean Murray), THC +4.3% (upgraded to Overweight at Lehman), NT +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), CHU +4.0% (upgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), TMX +1.5% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: EGR -24.8%, NCMI -8.7% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Soleil), CHDX -4.7% (light volume), NDN -4.2%... M&A news: IVGN -7.7% (announced it will acquire Applied Biosystems in a cash and stock transaction valued at $6.7 bln)... Select metals/mining stocks showing weakness with strength in the dollar: DROOY -4.8%, GFI -2.2%, AUY -2.1%, GG -1.9% (initiated with Market Weight at Weisel), SLV -1.8% (still checking), GLD -1.1%... Select drybulk shippers trading lower with Baltic Dry Index falling 9.5% in its last trading session: EXM -6.0%, DSX -5.9%, DRYS -5.8%, GNK -5.0%, TBSI -4.2%, EGLE -3.6%, NM -2.1%...Other news: PWER -10.9% (announces a $75 mln convertible notes private offering), LEH -7.4% (CFO Erin Callan, COO Joseph Gregory out at LEH - CNBC), ROC -6.9% (announces agreement to sell common stock by stockholders of 10 mln, but up to 11.5 mln shares), KEY -6.1% (discloses its Board has approved a number of actions aimed at strengthening KeyCorp's financial structure), TOO -5.6% (announces public offering of 7 mln common units), VE -2.6% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: VSE -8.1% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), BMRN -6.1% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), KGC -3.0% (downgraded to Market Weight at Weisel), ACI -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), BCSI -2.0% (downgraded to Sell at Brean Murray), ADM -1.3% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup). -
Sold IPHS eilsest, enamvähem nulliga välja. Ei töötanud nii nagu oleks tahtnud.
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Finants paistab siiski väga tugev täna, LEH probleemid ei lähe eriti korda. XLF komponendid kõik ligi +2%
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Jaanuari algus tuleb uuesti meelde :)
Ma näen täna turul oi kui palju lootust heade aegade järele, eriti peale jaemüügi oodatust paremaid numbreid. Aga ärge nüüd töötu abiraha taotlejate arvu kasvu ka ära unustage. Seega short SPY at 135.4... -
Long LEH @ 23.9 Hank Greenbergi peale. Tema investeering on $28 pealt ja olid kõlakad, et tahetakse hinda alla rääkida. Kui ta jätkab investeeringuga, siis ilmselt kõlakatel pole tõepõhja all. Väikselt.
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Sell LEH @ $24.29. Oleks kõvemat reaktsiooni oodanud.
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Bill Gross on oma juunikuu ülevaates kajastanud natuke inflatsiooniteemat ning välja toonud paar 90ndate alguses tehtud muudatust, mille tõttu USA inflatsioon ei ole maailma omaga eriti korreleerunud ning mistõttu see on madalam, kui inimesed reaalselt tunnetavad:
Product substitution and geometric weighting both presumed that more expensive goods and services would be used less and substituted with their less costly alternatives: more hamburger/less filet mignon when beef prices were rising, for example. In turn, hedonic quality adjustments accelerated in the late 1990s paving the way for huge price declines in the cost of computers and other durables. As your new model MAC or PC was going up in price by a hundred bucks or so, it was actually going down according to CPI calculations because it was twice as powerful. Hmmmmm? Bet your wallet didn’t really feel as good as the BLS did.
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Samal teemal kirjutasin ka 3. juuni börsipäeva foorumis, kus tõin ära ka USA viimase 50 aasta inflatsiooni headline vs core graafiku. Kes tahab meelde tuletada, siis teha saab seda siit.
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Nortel (NT) lisab oma eilsele 13%-lisele tõusule täna veel sama palju. Põhjuseks hommikune J.P. Morgani upgrade ning ettevõte eilne teade strateegia vahetusest, mille kohaselt jäetakse 4G arendamisel Wi-Max kõrvale ning valitakse ainult LTE. Kuigi praegu on veel vara öelda, siis esimeste märkide järgi nihkub 4G tehnoloogia igal juhul LTE suunas. Lähemalt saab 4G-st lugeda juuni alguse artiklist. Osta siit muidugi ei soovita.
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Joel, kui pika ajahorisondiga SPY-d shordid?
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Long LEH $23.10.
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Scaling out alates $23.3. Ei usu, et selline self-defense väga pikka mõju omab.
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Flat LEH vahemikus $23.3..$23.4.
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13 ja reede saab raske päev olema LEH jaoks?
nädalavahetusel võib paljugi juhtuda nagu ajalugu on näidanud
igaksjuhuks 10 lepingut strike 20 juuni putti -
Bubble13, horisont jäi ütlemata jah. Konkreetne tehing on eesmärgiga sulgeda enne päeva lõppu. Aga üldiselt jään juba varem öeldud sõnade juurde - rallisid tuleks kasutada müümiseks või shortimiseks...
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JP Morgan revises forecast in note; expects Fed to raise Fed Funds rate to 2.25% in September, expects Fed Funds to rise to 3.75% by end of 2009.
Turud on tugevalt allapoole tulnud ja toornafta futuurid on päeva alguse -3% -st langusest taastunud juba -0.4% peale kaubeldes $135.75 barrel tasemel. -
Long YHOO @ $25.
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Sell $25.3.
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Põhjust ei jõudnud kiiruga öelda: panic selling on rumor.. sellised asjad teevad üldiselt kiire bounce.
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JAS (14:07 EDT Jo Ann Stores-JAS downgraded to Hold from Buy@SOLE
sai tugevalt pihta, kusagilt siitkandist (23,05) põrge? -
JAS long 22.$85. Täitsa nõus, et põrge. Soleili valuation downgrade peale 1,5 punkti ehk siis mingi 6% alla tulla, insane!
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The Securities and Exchange Commission's staff said Thursday it has prepared the first update to oil and gas reserve accounting rules in 25 years for approval by the full commission.
"The recommendations that the SEC staff are providing to the commission reflect the significant changes in the oil and gas industry since adoption of the original reporting requirements, including improved technology and alternate resources," "Among other things, the recommended proposals would allow oil and gas companies to provide investors with additional information about their oil and gas reserves." The SEC will now launch a public comment period before taking action, the SEC said. -
Turg maadleb toornafta hinnaga, mis hetkel tiirutab ümber 0, olles kord +0.5% tõusus kord -0.5% languses. Korellatsioon lausa uskumatu, kas suudetakse positiivsus säilitada?
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JAS juurde, keskmine $22.76.
Ei meeldi, kuidas stock käitub, keegi tahab rõvedalt tampida seda. Aga kunagi peab see tegelane ära ka katma.. -
Short YHOO 22.51. Kui no deal, siis on Yahoo üks rõvedalt ülehinnatud aktsia.
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Yahoo-Microsoft talks have concluded without a deal, according to source
Yahoo!: Microsoft no longer willing to pay $33/share for Yahoo
Ja MSFT aktsia lendab tõusu.
