Börsipäev 18. juuni
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täna on majandusuudiste poolt tegu vaikse päevaga. Kell 17.30 Eesti aja järgi teatatakse energiaraport, mis on viimasel ajal rohkem tähelepanu saanud. Enne turgu siis ka Morgan Stanley'lt (MS) tulemused. EPSi oodatakse ettevõttelt $0.92 ning müügitulu $7.05 miljardit. MSi konverentsikõne toimub Eesti aja järgi kell 18.00. Link siin.
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Inglismaa Keskpank jättis intressimäärad samaks 5% tasemele. Protokollist oli näha, et päris konsensusotsusega tegu siiski polnud - 9-st liikmest 1 soovis siiski määrasid kergitada ning et inflatsiooni vastu võitlemine muutub üha määravamaks teemaks.
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Joel, aga täna tuli ju ainult protokoll, otsus varem.
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Niikaua kui USA ei otsusta võidelda selle raiskamise vastu, mida nimetatakse ameerikalikuks eluks või ei peatu soomusrong nimega BRIC, jäädaksegi inflatsiooniga võitlema.
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Jah momentum, otsus juuni alguses. Sõnad läksid sassi ennem, parandan ära. Neljapäev, 5. juuni oli otsuse päev, kui ma ei eksi - samal päeval koos ECBga. Aga protokoll tundub mulle pigem 'hawkish'.
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Arendan vandenõuteooriat...miks on SPY hind võrdne naftaga? ;)
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Daily Telegraph reports the Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralysis the major central banks. "A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist. A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets... RBS said the iTraxx index of high-grade corporate bonds could soar to 130/150 while the "Crossover" index of lower grade corporate bonds could reach 650/700 in a renewed bout of panic on the debt markets. "I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names. Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate... US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both face a Hobson's choice as workers start to lose their jobs in earnest and lenders cut off credit. The authorities cannot respond with easy money because oil and food costs continue to push headline inflation to levels that are unsettling the markets. "The ugly spoiler is that we may need to see much lower global growth in order to get lower inflation," he said. "The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets," he said.
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FDX sees FY09 $4.75-5.25 vs $5.92 First Call consensus
FDX sees Q1 $0.80-1.00 vs $1.27 First Call consensus
FDX prelim $1.45, ex items vs $1.47 First Call consensus; revs $9.87 bln vs $9.60 bln First Call consensus
vai-vai... -
Joel,
Miks on SPY hind võrdne naftaga? Lihtsalt juhuste kokkulangemine :) -
FedExi nõrkade prognooside põhjuseks kõrged kütusehinnad ja nõrk majandus ning kui üks neist faktoreist peaks ebasoodsas suunas edasi liikuma, tuleb juhtkonnal ootusi veelgi kärpida.
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FedEx (FDX) jääb ootustele kahe sendiga alla ning annab ka nadi prognoosi fiskaalaasta 1. kvartaliks ja 2009. fiskaalaastaks tervikuna. 1. kvartali EPSi nähakse $0.80 kuni $1.00 vs tänane ootus $1.27 ning 2009. aasta oma $4.75 kuni $5.25 vs konsensusootus $5.92. Oluline on ära märkida, et prognoose andes on ettevõte arvestanud tänase majanduskliima ning kütusehindadega. Kui majanduskliima halveneb või kütusehinnad tõusevad, on reaalsed tulemused veelgi nõrgemad.
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MS prelim $0.95 vs $0.92 First Call consensus; revs $6.51 bln vs $7.05 bln First Call consensus
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Kunagi sai $135.4 pealt SPY's lühikeseks mindud. Halb treid oli. Katan nüüd ära $134.50 pealt.
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Kuigi FedEx suutis tulusid kasvatada pea kõigis (Services flat) segmentides, siis kasumi osas jäädi oluliselt alla. Express segmendi ärikasum langes -31%, Ground -26% ning Freight -21%.
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RBSi vend on juba üle aasta Armageddonit ennustanud. ja ka see note oli 11. juuni väljas. Lihtsalt Telegraph korjas selle üles vaevalt et turg seetõttu kukub täna.
Disclaimer: eelnev oli Doug Kassi jutt, mitte minu. -
Saksamaa DAX -0.62%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.09%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.40%
Hispaania IBEX -1.52%
Venemaa MICEX +0.27%
Poola WIG -1.23%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.73%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.16%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +5.24%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +4.81%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.40%
Tai Set -1.47%
India Sensex -1.75%
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Keep Your Strategy in Mind During the Tumult
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/17/2008 4:01 PM EDT
Once again the major indices fail to really indicate what is going on in this market. We have two tiers of action, with some very aggressive buying in certain sectors like oil, agriculture, solar energy, steel and coal. On the other hand, groups like financials continue to look quite poor as they grope for support after a brief oversold bounce.
Even within the major indices, we have the DJIA looking quite a bit worse than the small-cap indices. You might think that the big-cap stocks in the DJIA would be viewed as safe havens and have better support than the more speculative small-cap names of the Russell 2000, but that has not been the case recently. Part of that is due to overweighting of financials in the DJIA, but it is still a rather glaring divergence.
This has been a good market for aggressive traders who stay focused on the hot groups, but it is becoming a bit overheated and I'm seeing a lot of small speculative names suddenly popping up, which makes me a bit quicker to take gains.
Although we have these pockets of good trading, the big picture is looking increasingly murky as the recent oversold bounce starts to fizzle. The good news this morning from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Best Buy (BBY) and the benign economic data was sold, and that does not bode well.
Make sure you have a clear strategy in mind on how you are going to deal with this market. If you are focused on the major indices, the world is going to look a whole lot different than it does in the momentum-driven sectors.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PNRA +7.1%, SMTS +7.1%, YRCW +6.1%, AMTD +2.0%, GIS +1.3%... Other news: PANC +14.3% (announces results of Bevirimat prospective study, which confirm patient response predictors), SNP +6.6% (China's oil refiners rise on speculation of fuel-price hike - Bloomberg.com), AEZ +5.5% (says Hageman 11-22 well reaches total depth; logs indicate potential oil discovery in shallow formations), LINE +4.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), ETFC +3.8% (reports monthly activity for May 2008; total retail customer assets increased 3.9%), PTR +2.7% (China's oil refiners rise on speculation of fuel-price hike - Bloomberg.com), BEZ +2.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), PFE +1.6% (Pfizer and Ranbaxy settle Lipitor patent litigation worldwide), GOLD +1.1% (still checking)... Analyst upgrades: ESLR +1.3% (initiated with Buy at Stanford), SPWR +1.2% (initiated with Buy at Stanford), IP +1.2% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), ARTG +1.1% (initiated with Buy at ThinkPanmure), ASMI +1.0% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LNN -21.2%, MF -16.5% (to offer $150 mln of convertible preference shares and $150 mln of convertible senior notes), KMX -11.4%, HOO -11.0%, MS -5.8%, FDX -5.0%, NOVL -2.4%, CLC -1.7%... Select European oil/gas stocks showing weakness: BP -1.8%, RDS.A -1.7%, E -1.5%, TOT -1.3%... Select financial names showing weakness following multiple news items in the sector: FITB -10.8% (to strengthen capital position; announces planned issuance of $1 bln in Tier 1 capital in the form of convertible preferred shares, reduces dividend), NCC -4.2%, LEH -2.1% (CNBC commentator says that unless there's a big change at the co, insiders expect large job cuts), UBS -1.9% (shareholder Olivant ups stake, supported rights - Reuters), CS -1.6%, JPM -1.4%, BAC -1.4%, C -1.3%, GS -1.1%... Other news: VWO -48.2% (trading post split), ABK -4.7% (Hedge Fund manager John Paulson says Ambac 'deteriorating rapidly' and downgrades 'inevitable' - Bloomberg), UPS -3.1% (trading down in sympathy with FDX), GFI -2.8% (still checking), OGE -2.6% (files for up to 6 mln shares of common stock offering), GCI -2.2% (releases May statistical report; revenues for the fifth period ended June 1, 2008 declined 10.9% compared with the same period in 2007), ELN -1.7% (modestly pulling back following this week's 20%+ surge higher), NOK -1.6% (still checking), BHP -1.5% and RTP -1.3% (still checking for anything specific), APL -1.2% (announces a 5 mln share common limited partner units offering)... Analyst downgrades: MTL -3.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), INFY -2.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna Financial), RCL -2.1% (downgraded to Sell at ABN Amro), CCL -1.4% (downgraded to Hold at ABN Amro). -
Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a draw of 1242K (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 1750K); gasoline inventories had a draw of 1178K (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 850K); distillate inventories had a build of 2617K (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 1800K).
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MF Global (MF) on 35% miinuses. Convert short selling ilmselt põhjuseks. Isegi kui pricing on 8 peal (mida ma väga ei usu), siis veidi pikemas perspektiivis peaksid aktsiad siin kandis deep value olema.
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Täna on kuradi halb päev sellise põrke püüdmiseks.
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MF hoiatas ka ja mitte vähe. Miks ta siin deep value peaks olema?
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Peale Beari saadi asi viieni välja...
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XLF siis märtsi põhja peal uuesti. $22.29.
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BDCO on tänane haip vististi., offshore drilling play
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long natu MF 8.57
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Smart Modular systems avaldab oma tulemused neljapäeval 20.06, täna 4% miinuses ja 2007 juuli tippudest kukkunud totaalselt 230% :).
ise long ja 6,27, tasub juurde võtta?
R -
sold MF hetkel 8.45
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rainberb, kas oled kaalunud loobumist? mai lõpus oli kasumihoiatus, kust peaks tulemusteks mingi positiivne üllatus järgnema?
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Fed's Yellen says mkt conditions not normal, despite signs of hope; rising commodities prices pose inflationary risk
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ymeramees, see info on käes aga loodetavasti dollari aktsiaks ei muutu. arvestades senist kukkumist siis veel kahjumit ei kannaks :)
tänud hoiatuse eest
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First Trust Global Wind (FAN) täna IPO-t tegev tuuleenergia ETF,mis on lähipäevadel kaubeldav ka LHV vahendusel, kui kellelegi huvi peaks pakkuma.
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Mis on "Smart Modular systems" -i ticker symbol?
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SMOD?
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Kas tegemist ei ole mitte SMART Modular Technologies-iga, mille sümbol on SMOD?
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Ma ei tea mida Rainerb silmas pidas, aga ei midagi muud, SMOD -i ma ei leidnud.
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tõepoolest, SMOD avaldab tulemused siiski 19.06, neljapäeval. samuti ei saaks pikk positsioon 6,27 tänase päeva seisuga kasumis olla. ilmselt on tegu millegi muuga :)
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MF tõuseb..
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Toornafta futuurid taas +2% tõusus, $136.57 barrel tasemel, mis kärbib turgude põrkevõimalusi.
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Pullid võitlevad elu eest ning finantssektorit on hakatud korralikult üles ostma. Peale Dow 12000 punkti taseme murdmist on taastumine olnud suht kiire. XLF on taastunud põhjast üpris korralikult ning mitmed suuremad pangad on jõudnud juba tõusu. Naftafutuuride püsimine tõusus ei paista hetkel turge heidutavat aga samas päev pole veel läbi.
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jah tegemist SMOD-iga ja pole öeldnudki et olen kasumis.
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arvestades senist kukkumist siis veel kahjumit ei kannaks
lugesin seda ja arvasin, et kui kahjumit ei kanna senise liikumisega, siis... -
''kahjumit ei kannaks'' ehk kui müün siis kannaks kahjumit
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kahjum on kahjum. ja kui ei müü, võib (suure tõenäosusega) see kahjum lõppkokkuvõttes esialgsest oluliselt suurem olla.
minul on sellega vist täiesti 100% nii olnud :) -
SMOD Smart Modular Tech misses by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (5.03 +0.33)
Reports Q3 (May) earnings of $0.05 per share, ex items, $0.01 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.06 (co preannounced EPS of $0.05-0.07); revenues fell 11.6% year/year to $167.6 mln vs the $152 mln consensus. Co guides for Q4 sees GAAP EPS of $0.06-0.07, may not be comparable to $0.10 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $160-170 mln vs. $158.84 mln consensus.
Q3 EPS siis 20. mai kasumihoiatuse alumisse äärde. Q4 EPS ka alla ootuste.
Mina ei tea, see positiivsus alguses on kahtlane (aga asi ka nii õhuke). -
MF Global?
17. juunil tõmbas MF oma Q1 alla (vähendasid kevadel klientide võimendust) ning andis teada, et vajab lisakapitali.
18. juunil sukeldus aktsiahind 44%.
19. juunil hind vähe taastus, ilmselt hinda liigselt kukkunuks pidades.
20. juunil tuli Deutche Bank target cut: Deutsche Bank cut their MF tgt to $11 from $17. The firm is leaving their 2008 estimate alone for now, but cutting their 2009 core estimate by 25 cents to $1.30 (consensus $1.24), to reflect somewhat lower volume and interest income assumptions going forward. They feel that uncertainty about MF's near and long-term prospects has increased following recent guidance, and that management credibility has been reduced, which could mean MF will trade at a discount to what might otherwise be fair value. Given uncertainty about future prospects, they continue to rate MF a Hold.
aktsiahind tegi uue allakäigu 19%.
23. juunil andis Keefe Bruyette DG: Keefe Bruyette downgraded shares on the anticipated dilutive effect of the company's convertible offerings. Target lowered to $8.50. Hind langes jälle -8%.
26. juuni Form 8-K: On June 25, 2008, MF Global Ltd. (the "Company") completed the issuance and sale of (i) $150 million aggregate principal amount of its 9.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2038 (the "Notes") and (ii) $150 million in aggregate liquidation preference of its 9.75% Non-Cumulative Convertible Preference Shares, Series B (the "Preference Shares"). The terms of each transaction and the securities issued and sold are described below.
MF on ilmselt veebruari kahjumist väljarabelemise keerises (nende traderi tekitatud kahjum) ning küsimus on, kas nad jäävad vee peale.
Beari järgsest suure kukkumisest, mille põhjustasid kuulukad poe sulgemisest, oli aktsiahind juba taastunud. Langusele panustajatel on märtsist üks kaotus ehk värskelt meeles. Kukkumist on ehk võimendanud ka hetkeolukord turul, kuid viimased päevad pole enam paanilist müüki olnud (mis turu jätkuval langemisel loomulikult uuesti järgneb). Raha leidsid, tulemused juuli lõpus, ei näe praegu rohkem ettevõtet puudutavaid negatiivseid uuudiseid tulemas(DG-d välja arvatud), lühikesi positsioone 7 ja 9 hinna vahel (natuke ka praegustelt tasemetelt), kes oma kasumit ehk lukku hakkavad panema hinna taastudes. Ilmselt keegi kiirelt kaitsma ei kipu, aga kui see juhtuks, siis peaks kena ralli tekitama.
maja võidab ju alati :)
Oman pikka positsiooni, osa 7.01 eelmisest reedest, osa 6.10, tavapärasest väiksem positsioon ning ei hakka rohkem suurendama ka, kui asi turul halvemaks läheb, ei ole averagemise spetsialist :) Siht paar nädalat ja hind 8 ringis.
Mida arvate?
