Börsipäev 19. juuni
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Suurbritannia jaemüük kasvas +3.5% maikuus. Pärast aprillikuu -0.3%list langust on see aktsiaturgudele kenaks positiivseks üllatuseks. Seda enam, et analüütikute keskmine ootus oli -0.1%. See info toetab BOE pisut karmimat sõnastust intressimäära poliitika osas. Eile pärast turgude sulgumist hoiatas aga BOE president King, et majanduskasv on UK's päris kiiresti vähenemas ning sel aastal kasvu aktiviseerumist oodata ei ole.
Euroopa turud ja ka USA futuurid on päeva alguse põhjadest pisut kosunud. USA futuurid näitavad isegi väikest plussi. Tund aega enne USA börsi avanemist teatakse esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate arv. Eelmine nädal oli number hirmutavalt suur ning tänased andmed siis näitavad, kas tegu oli ühekordse numbriga või mitte. -
Citigroup langetab peale investeerimispankade tulemusi Morgan Stanley (MS) ja Lehmani (LEH) kasumiprognoose ning tõstab Goldman Sachsi (GS) omasid.
Citigroup is cutting their 2008, 2009, and 2010 estimates for LEH and MS to reflect the current quarter's results and a challenging fixed income environment. Firm is also lowering their tgt on MS to $65 from $70 to reflect their lower earnings ests. Firm raises their 2008 est for GS to reflect the better-than-expected results in 2Q08. For MS, EPS ests for 2008, 2009, and 2010 cut to $4.00, $6.00, and $7.00 from $4.25, $6.25, and $7.50 respectively (consensus $4.85 and $6.10). For LEH EPS ests cut to ($4.84), ($4.50), and ($4.75) from ($3.69), $4.75, and $5.00 respectively (consensus ($3.06) and $3.78). For GS est are raised to $18.75 from $17.00 (consensus $16.87).
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Kraft Foods (KFT) sai reitingulangetuse osaliseks, UBS langetas KFT reitingu "osta" pealt "neutraalse" peale.
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enek, kas HUN-s pikk juba?
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tundub, et käive läheb üles aga ask püsib, et see siga läheb madalamale
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Citigroup upgrades AIG (AIG 31.52) to Buy from Hold and raises their tgt to $42 from $41, as they believe shares are poised for over 35% upside in the next 12 months, using their current estimates and assuming a no premium 1.0x Q209 book ex. CDS losses valuation while a quarterly results, even with heavy losses, could prove a catalyst to trigger renewed interest in shares...
long AIG, keskmine 32,04 -
ymeramees,just AIG radaril ja ise ka imestasin,kuda 32-32.2 antakse suht vabalt:)
Mida keegi HUN-st arvab?pos ei oma -
Initial Claims 381K vs 375K consensus, prior revised to 386K from 384K
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kõige otstarbekam on mitte puutuda sodi nagu HUN ..kurat seda teab kas läheb 9 peale või 15 juurde
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Vahin niisama, pole midagi teinud. Pigem CVH kui HUN.
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Soome ja Rootsi börsid on homme suve keskpaiga tähistamiseks kinni. Esmaspäeval, teisipäeval aga Soome, Rootsi turud lahti ning ka USAs käib tihe kauplemine.
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Ja USA futuurid alustavad tänast päeva nullist.
Saksamaa DAX -0.09%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.01%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.23%
Hispaania IBEX -0.07%
Venemaa MICEX -0.03%
Poola WIG +0.94%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.23%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.26%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -6.53%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -7.38%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.62%
Tai Set -3.20%
India Sensex -2.17%
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Ignore the Analysts
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/19/2008 9:20 AM EDT
You know, sometimes, when they say you're ahead of your time, it's just a polite way of saying you have a real bad sense of timing.
--George McGovern
One of the ironies of Wall Street is that as the technical condition of the major indices deteriorates, the louder the calls that a turning point is near will become. Wall Street is full of people who hate the idea of respecting a trend. The masses are always considered to be ignorant yokels who never get it right. The brilliant analysts with contrary opinions are considered, by the media, to be unusually insightful when the truth is, most of them have such poor timing that the recommendations they make are useless.
The fact of the matter is that the crowd of average investors is right most of the time. If you stick with the prevailing trend, you will usually make out pretty well. It is only at extremes that the crowd is wrong and trying to determine exactly when sentiment is so extreme that it signals a major turning point is an art, not a science.
I bring this up because as the "Worst is Over" rally off the March lows fails and turns into nothing more than a classic bear-market bounce, there are going to be plenty of market pundits once again calling for another such rally. They are going to urge you to hurry up and buy because the bottom is almost here, and if you aren't fully invested, you will be left out.
That is baloney. The market is falling into a downtrend, and while we may see some countertrend bounces and rallies, like we had last week, there is nothing to indicate that a bottom is near. So, many folks get excited every time there is a slight bounce within a downtrend, and as a result, they want to hurry up and buy.
Keep in mind that if stocks are in a downtrend, it takes some time for the charts to improve and be buyable. You might be able to trade within a downtrend for bounces, but stocks worthy of buying for the longer term will need more than a bounce before they are buyable.
Making money in the market is all about timing. Unfortunately, Wall Street has an oversupply of folks who make a living by constantly calling for turning points in the market. Although many eventually get it right, most have such poor timing that their predictions prove useless.
This market is now mired in a downtrend. Respect that fact and ignore those who are anxious to call for a turning point. The crowd is a lot smarter than you think, and trends almost always last longer than seems reasonable.
We have some minor strength to start the day as oil pulls back a little, and the news wires are mostly quiet.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
USNA +14.0%, CWST +8.4% (also upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), HWAY +5.6%... M&A news: AHG +26.4% (to be acquired by affiliate of the Blackstone Group; shareholders to receive $21.00 per share in all-cash)... Other news: ESLR +11.8% (signs two new sales contracts totaling ~$600 mln), IMAX +8.3% (still checking), LLNW +5.2% (Judge says Limelight ban 'premature' - Reuters.com), POWR +3.0% (deepens utility relationships and diversifies revenue base with new business awards; co has been awarded $10 mln in new business), MT +3.0% (still checking), FRX +2.7% (announces "positive results" from Phase III clinical studies of Ceftaroline for the treatment of complicated skin and skin structure infections), EP +1.7% and SWN +1.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), SGMO +1.6% (Dow AgroSciences announces early exercise of option for commercial license with Sangamo BioSciences for plants)... Analyst upgrades: KMX +2.4% (upgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia), AIG +1.9% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), TOT +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), RDC +1.2% (initiated with a Buy at Jesup & Lamont).
Allapoole avanevad:
CVH -21.3% (also downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia), AMSWA -5.7%, CC -3.8%, PRGS -1.4% (light volume)... Select China names showing weakness with Hang Seng closing -2.3% as investors were disappointed by lack of mkt-boosting measures from Beijing: ACH -4.2% (was second biggest percentage loser on the Hang Seng Index with Macquarie Group cutting co's 2008 EPS estimate by 13% on higher production costs and lower prices), LMC -2.5%, LFC -1.9%, SNP -1.3%... Select European financials showing weakness: UBS -4.1% (Swiss central bank demands UBS, Credit Suisse beef up capital - Reuters; also coverage resumed with Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), CS -2.0% (Swiss central bank demands UBS, Credit Suisse beef up capital - Reuters), LYG -1.9%, BCS -1.4%, DB -1.1%... Select healthcare stocks trading lower following disappointing CVH guidance: UNH -11.2%, WCG -6.9%, WLP -5.7%, AET -4.9% (still down despite co reaffirming Q2 and Y08 guidance), HUM -4.9%, CI -3.8%, AGP -3.7%, CNC -3.1%, MHS -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS)... Other news: HUN -33.4% (Hexion files suit alleging that transaction with Huntsman is no longer viable; also downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies), LEAP -7.5% (announces proposed private placement of $200 mln in Convertible Senior Notes and of $200 mln in Senior Notes), CSE -4.2% (announces it plans a public offering of approx 30 mln shares of common stock), XMSR -3.7% (still checking), NOK -2.6% (price estimate cut overnight to 14.5 euros from 17 euros at Societe Generale SA), ASML -2.2% (still checking), CEDC -1.2% (announces common stock offering of 3.125 mln shares), GOOG -1.1% (still checking), VRUS -1.0% (files for mixed securities shelf offering of up to $100 mln)... Analyst downgrades: SYNA -3.8% (downgraded to Market Perform at Oppenheimer), CMC -1.8% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), PSD -1.7% (downgraded to Sell at Soleil), CAKE -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS). -
Carnival Cruises (CCL) suutis Q2 tulemustega analüütikute ootusi ületada, kuid on sunnitud langetama Q3 ja FY08 prognoose kõrgete kütusehindade tõttu. Samas ei tohiks see kedagi enam üllatada, aktsiat on viimastel päevadel agressiivselt müüdud ja võiks täna põrgata.
09:16 CCL sees Q3 $1.56-1.58 vs $1.78 First Call consensus
09:16 CCL sees FY08 $2.70-2.80 vs $2.96 First Call consensus
09:15 CCL prelim $0.49 vs $0.41 First Call consensus; revs $3.38 bln vs $3.33 bln First Call consensus -
Lisaks veel lõigu tulemuste pressiteatest, kus ettevõtte kinnitab, et fundamentaalsed trendid püsivad tugevad:
"Despite the current difficult economic environment, our booking trends continue to be solid. Consumers continue to plan leisure travel but appear more cost conscious placing greater emphasis on finding more economical options. A cruise vacation is an attractive alternative for those seeking the most value for their vacation dollar... However, the impact of skyrocketing fuel prices on our operating results has overshadowed the revenue yield improvement we have experienced." -
tma miinuses peaaegu 50 %
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Hiina on lisandumas arenevate riikide hulka, kes on lõpuks vähendamas kütusele peale makstavaid subsiidiume. Tulemuseks nafta paari dollariline miinus.
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subsiidiumide tõstmise esimene voor läbi ja nafta @ 135...
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Philadelphia Fed -> -17.1 punkti vs eelmise korra -15.6 ja sedapuhku oodatud -10 punkti
Juhtivad indikaatorid +0.1% vs oodatud 0.0%. -
AIG väljas, keskmine 32,28. UBS ja turg :( Ei tulnud head hinda.
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But with this morning's reports, both companies' ADRs are surging (PTR +3.5%, SNP +5.0%) as higher gasoline and diesel prices would increase their refining margins. The news bodes well for a positive reaction in Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets tonight as energy companies (PTR, SNP, CEO) comprise an extremely large weighting in those indices. Note: A similar situation happened in Brazil to Petrobras (PBR) in early May, and that stock proceeded to rally 30% over the next few weeks.
PTR on oktoobri $260 pealt kukkunud tänaseks $138 juurde ning PBRi kordus võib kõne alla tulla küll. Samas on tegu tõelise mammutiga ning investoritele kõrge volatiilsus ei meeldi, seega sama kiiret tõusu ei julgeks oodata.
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madis, kas sa tahad oma lausega viidata sellele, et ilma Aasia riikide subsiidiumite vähendamisete kaupleks nafta veelgi kõrgema hinna juures? Kui Hiina kõrval on toetusi vähendanud juba India, Malaisia, Sri Lanka, Indoneesia ja Taivan, siis see lihtsalt peab nõudlust mõjutama. Ka erinevad USA küsitlused (ok, ei tea, kui usaldusväärsed need võivad olla) näitavad, et kütusekasutamist ollakse vähendamas. Ja minu jaoks ongi see pigem mulli märk, kui selliste uudiste peale erilist reaktsiooni ei ole. Äkki oodatakse pühapäevast kokkutulekut Saudi-Araabias?
Niisama intrigeerin. -
paistab et CCL kosubki
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China Government says gasoline, diesel prices to rise by 17-18%
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Madis, see võib tähendada nii mulli kui ka seda et lükkel ei ole tarbimisele suuremat mõju. Hiina viimase inflanumbri järel ei olnud see tõstmine suur üllatus, küll aga ulatus (suurem kui oodatud). Hiina puhul (ja ehk mingil määral ka mujal) võib sel aga olla hoopis pulliseid tagajärgi, rafineerijad rohkem motiveeritud naftat tooma jaemüüki, siiamaani oli ju puudujääke, kilomeetritepikkused järjekorrad. See liigutus võib in fact suurendada tarbimist. Ja see araablastega kohtumine... ma ootaks seda umbes sama palju nagu sadu kordi ülekäiatud kehvapoolset provintsi teatrietendust:) Niivõrd ära on nende jutt tüüdanud. Seni kuni ei muutu nende seisukoht, et "säilitame naftat lastele," on nende jutt kõik bs. Võtta kasutusel varuvõimsus, mida neil peaaegu ei olegi... lühiajaline mõju.
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Citigroup on corporate call says they could face another credit value adjustment similar to last qtr from monoline exposure.
