Börsipäev 20. juuni
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Kuigi PetroChina (PTR) aktsia langes eile päeva tippudelt tagasi $140.49 tasemele, lõpetati päev ikka 4.4% kõrgemal. Kütusehindade tõstmine Hiinas mõjub koheselt ettevõtte kasumile, sest seni on koos Sinopeciga (SNP) saadud rafineerimisest suuri kahjumeid. SNP tõusis eile ligi 8%, kuid kuna ettevõte on seni pidanud PTR-iga võrreldes importima rohkem naftat maailmaturult, on ka investorite kergendus arusaadavam.
Hiina kütusehindade tõus on väga oluline sündmus ning PTR võiks seetõttu kaubelda märgatavalt kõrgemal.
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tulge chatti, ajame elu sisse!
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Goldman Sachs tõstab PTRi soovituse "müü" pealt "neutraalsele" (hinnasiht $137) ning SNP soovituse "osta" peale (hinnasiht $132). Mõlemad aktsiad eelturul sügavas miinuses (SNP -8.3%, PTR - 4%), arvatavasti lõpetavad päeva oluliselt kõrgemal.
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Kordusena chatist: long some AMR @ 6.10.
Mingid idikad müüvad seda, sest a) eile tõusis kõvasti b) nafta on üleval.
Aga mina arvan, et Soleili upgrade jääb kokkuvõttes peale. Nad on viimasel ajal päris võimsalt lennufirmasid liigutanud. -
Mis ajavahemik on "kokkuvõttes" ?
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arvaks ka, et AMR on hea buy siin. kuid praegusel turul ..who the f knows
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Street, pool tundi peale openit lõpeb see ajahetk.
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Saksamaa DAX -1.42%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.16%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.01%
Hispaania IBEX -1.55%
Venemaa MICEX -0.87%
Poola WIG +0.05%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.33%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.23%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +3.02%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.22%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.30%
Tai Set +4.14%
India Sensex -3.42%
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Respect the Trend
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/20/2008 9:02 AM EDT
When I'm bearish and I sell a stock, each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale. When I am buying, the reverse is true. I must buy on a rising scale. I don't buy long stocks on a scale down, I buy on a scale up.
-- Jesse Livermore
Yesterday, a dip in crude oil and some hope that financials might see an end to bad news helped the market bounce. This morning, crude oil is back up sharply as many doubt that price hikes in China really will cool demand, and financials are under pressure on a slew of new profit concerns. If you turned bullish yesterday, you are losing money this morning.
This very choppy action is keeping trading very tricky and to some degree is a consequence of frustrated efforts to call turning points in oil, financials and the overall market. The inclination of many market players isn't to respect the trend (as Jesse Livermore does), but to try to guess when it will end. What Livermore understood and made him successful was that trends tend to persist. They do not end easily. While there may be countertrend moves along the way, the best approach to making money is to assume that the major trend will continue and to keep trading in that direction.
Of course, that sounds a lot easier than it is. All trends will end, and no one wants to be caught leaning the wrong way when that happens, so we try to cut back when things become extended and we use stops and try to keep from being whipsawed. That can make for some difficult trading when we have a day like yesterday, when most of the action is contrary to the prevailing trends.
For quite a while now we have had a persistent uptrend in energy and cyclical groups like steel and fertilizer and a very aggressive downtrend in financials. The temptation to fight those trends can be quite great, but the way to make money is to assume they will continue. Days like yesterday will make that difficult at times, but if you follow Livermore's advice you increase your chances of success.
I continue to be concerned about the state of the major indices. What is most troubling to me is the wide divergence between the very poor-acting DJIA and the small-cap indices such as the Russell 2000. At some point that gap is going to narrow, and my concern is that its going to narrow by a sharp drop in small-cap stocks. That would make for some very ugly trading, but I don't see how small-caps can continue to outperform in this murky economic environment.
We are off to a weak start this morning, but the action has been extremely choppy lately, and I expect that to continue today as options expiration occurs and market players try to sort out the issues in oil and financials.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: OZRK +13.2%, LEI +3.6% and WU +1.9% (all light volume)... Select gold stocks showing strength: GOLD +2.3%, AUY +2.0%, ABX +1.8%... Other news: YMI +10.3% (announces FDA lifts clinical hold on AEROLEF AND clearance of a phase II clinical trial), PESI +7.3% (announces win of "Major Subcontract" at the Department of Energy Hanford Site), ENOC +5.7% (signs 110 megawatt contract with Southern California Edison), HBAN +5.1% (announces Q2 net charge-off and loan loss provision expectations; confirms Franklin Credit Mgmt relationship continues to perform to expectations), TS +4.8% (rises to record as Morgan Stanley raises price forecast - Bloomberg.com), MDR +1.9% and FWLT +1.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), TOT +1.5% (still checking)... Analyst upgrades: FITB +2.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Keefe Bruyette), BZH +2.1% (upgraded to Neutral at UBS), EXLS +1.3% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: WGO -4.1%... Select China stocks trading lower following weakness in overseas trading: ACH -9.5% (first-half profit to drop by more than 50% - Bloomberg.com), HNP -9.3%, SNP -8.2%, YZC -5.0%, PTR -4.1%, SHI -2.5%... Select financial stocks showing weakness: MF -12.9% (tgt cut to $11 from $17 at Deutsche Bank; says uncertainty about MF prospects has increased - Bloomberg), RBS -5.4%, STI -5.2% (JPMorgan says STI has lowest reserves among large banks; says STI can issue preferred stock, sell assets - Bloomberg), BCS -4.8%, UBS -4.2% (estimates lowered by Lehman - Bloomberg), MER -3.8% (Reuters reports rumors that MER to issue profit warning are hurting European bank stocks, S&P futures), LEH -2.9%, DB -2.1% (estimates lowered by Lehman - Bloomberg), CS -1.1% (estimates lowered by Lehman - Bloomberg)... Select airlines/travel leisure names showing weakness with crude trading higher: UAUA -8.8%, LCC -7.9%, NWA -6.1%, CAL -6.0% (announces pricing of public equity offering at $14.80), DAL -4.1%, CCL -2.6%, RCL -1.7%... Other news: MBI -10.4% (Moody's downgrades MBIA's rating to A2; outlook is negative), ABK -6.4% (Moody's cuts Ambac Assurance to Aa3 vs Aaa), FLE -5.4% (announces offering of 12,000,000 shares of common stock), NOK -2.4% (still checking), CINF -1.6% (sees net written premiums to be as ~5% below the prior year; co's current assessment suggests that it may not be in its best interest to sell FITB immediately)... Analyst downgrades: IRF -7.4% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), SNDK -5.1% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), BVF -4.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at CIBC), CTSH -3.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), SYMC -3.5% (downgraded to Market Perform at FBR), DENN -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Merriman). -
Merrill on säilitanud Regions Financiali (RF) "underperform" reitingu, kuid langetanud hinnasihti $10-le. Põrkab siit?
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you just gotta love crude :D
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Madis, mille peale täpsemalt põrkama peaks? :)
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See langetamine tundub juba sabassörkimisena. Ettevõtte olukord ei ole nii hull, kui aktsia hind näitab.
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Short a bit OZRK @ 17.75. See peab bouncema küll täna, aga 12% tundub natuke ülepingutatuna. Regionaalpankade valuatsioonid on alla tulnud ja ei näe põhjust, miks peaks samadele tasemetele tagasi jõudma, isegi kui mõnel tõesti kapitalipuudust ei ole. Pealegi kauples see eile järelturul samadel tasemetel, aga siis ei olnud negatiivseid kommentaare Merrillilt, JP Morganilt ja teistelt.
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Madis, RF on üks tõenäolisemaid kandidaate kapitali tõstmisele. Vaata, mida näiteks FITB ja KEY tegid oma convertible offerite peale.
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AMR keskmine praeguseks 6.03. Väga kindlalt ei tunne ennast, crude on veel edasi rallinud. Eks hakkan peale avanemist jupikaupa müüma.
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out 6.18 kuigi ilmselt runnib edasi
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Mõned põhjused, mis regionaalpangad pihta on saanud:
The shares of several large U.S. regional banks that lend in Florida or Michigan fell sharply on Wednesday after Fifth Third Bancorp said it will slash its dividend 66 percent and raise at least $2 billion of capital to cope with mounting credit losses in those states.
Fifth Third also said commercial nonperforming assets may rise 45 percent from the first quarter, mainly from deteriorating commercial construction and mortgage portfolios in Florida and eastern Michigan.
Eks sama hakati kartma ka teiste pankade puhul, aga RF on juba sellest ajast ca 15% langenud. Kusagil on piir, kus (võimalik) dividendide langetamine enam väga hull ei tundu. Aga mu küsimärk ei olnud asjata.
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Abesiki sai parema exiti, ma sain osa müüdud 6.19 ja 6.15, aga 2/3 jäi veel kätte.
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minul läks osa 6,20, aga sama, 2/3 käes.
aga see on jah crude play. lennufirma, mis kõige vähem miinuses - tuld! -
OZRK 18.08 keskmine, selle ralli peale võtsin natuke juurde. Endiselt tundub ülepingutatud. Aga jõle õhuke aktsia, mugavalt ma ennast sellega ei tunne, püüan väikse kasumiga välja saada. Samas turg on jõle negatiivne, nii et paanikat ka ei ole :)
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Hakkasin OZRK vaikselt katma 17.92 pealt. Turg tangib täiega, aga see kräpp on nii õhuke, et elab üsna oma elu. Nigel on nii õhukest kräppi kaubelda, ainuüksi sellepärast tahan välja :)
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Krt, ei tohi sellist õhukest jura kaubelda nagu OZRK.. olen seda järjest katnud, järjest ülespoole pidanud minema, pole üldse meeldiv nii :) Enamus nüüdseks õnneks kinni. Kasumit sisuliselt ei tule, umbes 10 senti, aga see-eest hea meeldetuletus, et hoia eemale sellisest jurast :)
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Flat OZRK. Keskmiselt 9,5 senti aktsia kohta. Usun endiselt, et see oli muidu hea treid, aga lihtsalt krdi õhuke aktsia.
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Wait & pray on ka mõnikord edukas strateegia :) Flat AMR 6.09-6.11.
Idee oli hea, execution sitt, oleks pidanud kõik avanemisel maha lükkama. -
AMR juba 6.24...
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RF on põrganud $10.75 pealt $12.03 peale. Kes ostsid, võiksid nüüd kinni panna. Kuigi arvan, et nii täna kui ka esmaspäeval võib veel kõrgemaid tasemeid näha.
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PTR ja SNP on sisuliselt sama koha peal, kus hommikul. Ausalt öeldes põhjustest päris aru ei saa. Tean, et ei olda kindlad, kui palju Hiina otsus marginaale mõjutab, aga 17%-line hinnatõus peaks korraliku efekti andma. Endiselt positiivne.
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ks sama hakati kartma ka teiste pankade puhul, aga RF on juba sellest ajast ca 15% langenud. Kusagil on piir, kus (võimalik) dividendide langetamine enam väga hull ei tundu. Aga mu küsimärk ei olnud asjata.
Miks see RF nüüd tõusma oleks pidanud? -
Eilne BBT pani äkitselt kõiki regionaalpankade probleeme unustama ja puhtalt inertsist pandi täna veel edasi. Üldiselt, aktsiad on küll hoolega alla müüdud, aga põhjusega, päris mitmed vajavad kapitali lisamist, mis senistele aktsionäridele saab olema üsna dilitive. Seesama RF on üsna tõenäoline, lisaks veel CMA, STI, paljud teised.
PS Ei usu, et ka ralli põhjustanud BBT päris puhas poiss on. Tegelikult oli see üsna leimo kommentaar nende poolt eile, turul lihtsalt oli põhjust vaja, et üks ajutine kergendusralli teha. -
Ahjaa, mis ma öelda tahtsin: ilmselt müüakse regionaalpangad siit alla tagasi täna, mis veel pole müüdud. Mis on, need müüakse veel rohkem alla :)
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MF on väga vaikseks jäänud, 7-st alla ei pressita ning üles ka ei osteta.
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Optsioonireede kipub tänast langust turul võimendama.... Institutsioonid, kes on viimase kolme kuu jooksul put-optsioone agaralt välja kirjutanud, lootes niimoodi kindlat raha teenida (kolm kuud ju järjepanu üles ka liigutud), jooksevad praegu üksteise võidu müüma, et oma positsioone katta.
