Börsipäev 27. juuni
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Uurisin siin natukene Hiina kütusetendentse ja lõpuks sain kokku sellise graafiku. Kasutatud siis dollari juunikuist kurssi, kus 1$= ca 10 EEKi. Ca 2 aastat on hinnad viimasel ajal stabiilsed olnud ja nüüd siis tugevam tõus. Täiesti võimalik, et sellele tõusule järgneb veelgi hinna kergitamisi.
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Hiinal oli enne WTO'sse astumist ranged piirangud nafta importimiseks. Kusagil 2003 aastal pandi paika, et umbes 50% toornaftast võiks tulla väljaspoolt Hiinat. Kui impordid aina rohkem väljast ja müüd alla turuhinna, siis see hakkab tänase hinnataseme juures valitsusele kulukaks muutuma.
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Juunis langes Euroopa jaemüük kiiresti kasvavate kütuse- ja toiduhindade tõttu, mis lõid kiilu tabijate rahakottidesse sundides poode vähedama töökohti.
Eurotsooni müügitegevus langes 53.1 pealt (mai) 44 peale (juuni). Kasvavad arved ning viimase 16 aasta kiireim inflatsioon hävitavad majapidamiste sissetulekuid ja tarbija usaldus kahaneb. Täna tõusid toornafta hinnad rekordiliselt üle 140 dollari barreli kohta. Nick Kounis tõdes, et lähiajal võivad kõik olla tunnistajateks veelgi kõrgematele energiahindadele, mis tõeliselt mõjutab majapidamiste ostujõudu. See mõjutab inimeste kindlustunet mille vilju on juba nähtud teise kvartali aeglasest kasvust.
Tööhõive langeb. Müük langes Saksamaal, Prantsusmaal ja Itaalias – Eurotsooni suurimates riikides. Langust vedas Itaalia, kus kulutused jaemüügis kukkusid kõige suuremal määral. Prantsusmaa tarbijate usaldus langes rekordmadalale just juunis. Sentiment on ka langemas Saksamaal ja Itaalias. Naftahinnad on kahekordistunud viimase 12 kuu jooksul, samal ajal kui euroregiooni toidukaupade inflatsioon tõusis 6.4 protsendini mais. Krediiditurul pesitsev rahutus ja jahtuv majanduskasv ohustavad tööhõivet, mis võib omakorda õõnestada tarbijate sentimenti ja kulutusi. Palkade kasv kiireneb ning tööhõive kasv püsib järel, aga tõusvad hinnad neutraliseerib stiimuli. Kui tarbeesemete hinnad peaksid stabiliseeruma, siis kulutuste väljavaated peaksid ka parenema. -
see paistab nagu lugu, millega ei peaks niiväga kiirustama?
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see on juba behind the curve lugu?
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Ericssoni kasumihoiatuse peale Nokia samuti sümpaatiast 5% miinuses.
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Kuna Sony Ericsson rõhutab, et negatiivselt mõjutab nende tulemusi oodatust tagasihoidlikum nõudlus kesk- ja äriklassi mobiiltelefonide järele (mis on muideks kõrgema marginaaliga), siis on siinkohal ka surve Nokia ja miks mitte ka RIMMi aktsiale igati loogiline.
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Veelkord kinnitust sentimendi halvenemisest Euroopas
European confidence dropped more than economists forecast this month and retail sales plunged, signaling that economic growth is continuing to cool even as the European Central Bank prepares to lift interest rates to a seven-year high to tackle inflation.
An index measuring sentiment in the euro area fell to 94.9, the lowest since May 2005, from 97.6 the previous month, the European Commission in Brussels said today. Separate reports showed European retail sales plummeted, while inflation accelerated in Germany and Spain.
Stocks fell in Europe today as oil climbed to a record above $140 a barrel and Carrefour SA, Europe's biggest retailer, scaled back its earnings forecast. With soaring food and energy prices boosting inflation, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet has said the bank may raise the benchmark rate next week by a quarter point to 4.25 percent.
``The economy has hit the wall,'' said Ken Wattret, senior economist at BNP Paribas SA in London. ECB officials ``run the risk of tipping the euro area into a recession'' as the inflation outlook increases the risk that the central bank ``may need to go beyond one rate rise.''
Confidence among the manufacturing, construction and retail industries across the 15 nations that share the euro declined this month, as did consumer sentiment, according to today's commission report.
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Sissetulekute suurenemine siis kahtlemata positiivne viimaste päevade negatiivsuse taustal ja tööjõuturul toimuvat arvesse võttes.
May Personal Income 1.9% vs 0.4% consensus; prior revised to 0.3% from 0.2% -
mängime ülespoomist: mis tähed käivad siia vahele? S...........n
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maksutagastuse tshekke on kõvasti läbi löödud, 71% USA GDPst andev PCE (personal consumption expenditures) maikuus tugev
samas CPI asemel FED poolt enim jälgitav PCE inflatsioonikordaja madalam konsensuse ootustest -
Hoolimata turu plusspoolel olemist ongi RIMM kohe uutele põhjadele juba kukkunud...
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Aasia oli eilse USA kukkumise järel väga punastes meeleoludes:
Saksamaa DAX -0.41%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.58%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.06%
Hispaania IBEX +0.28%
Venemaa MICEX +0.71%
Poola WIG -1.41%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.01%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.84%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -5.29%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -4.05%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.35%
Tai Set +0.20%
India Sensex -4.30%
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Keep Your Focus, and Keep Your Edge
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/27/2008 9:23 AM EDT
I'm out of the office today, but I wanted to put up a quick note about perspective. There are two things to keep in mind right now:
1. We are in a bear market, and the indices are downtrending. While we very likely will see some bounces and rallies, the big picture is quite negative, and it's going to take some time before that changes.
2. Make sure you have a very clear approach for dealing with this market. Don't turn into a dip-buying value hound just because things are down and because you keep hearing from pundits how cheap things are. If you are a position trader and things move against you, don't let your positions turn into longer-term investments. For most individuals, with a longer-term time frame, the best thing to do is hold a large amount of cash and simply wait for the trends to turn back up. It will take more than one rally to do so. Don't get caught up in the bottom-calling game.
With those two things in mind, there isn't much to do right now for longer-term investors who have already raised cash, unless you want to try some shorting on the bounces that are likely to occur.
If you are focused on the shorter term, there should be some good trading here, as the doom and gloom is thick and the end of the quarter and the Russell 2000 rebalancing shakes things up.
Good luck and go get 'em. I'll see you Monday.
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Ülespoole avanesid:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ANDE +16.0%, FINL +9.2%, ACN +2.2%, PAYX +1.4%... M&A news: BDAY +63.0% (Liberty Media to acquire Celebrate Express for $3.90/share)... Select metals/mining stocks showing strength with higher spot prices and weakened dollar: HMY +6.8%, GFI +6.0%, AU +5.1%, HL +2.5%, GOLD +2.1%, BHP +1.3%, SLV +1.0%, AUY +1.0... Select small-cap oil & gas momentum names showing strength on light volume: TIV +5.2%, BQI +4.4%, FPP +3.7%, MXC +3.5%, ROYL +3.3%, GTE +2.6% ('successfully' drills Popa-2 exploration well; oil and gas shows encountered, preparations for testing program initiated)... Other news: FMD +11.3% (GS Capital Partners has invested $59.8 mln for the co's preferred stocks and converted it into FMD common stock), AKS +4.0% (will replace Countrywide Financial in the S&P 500), BRL +3.6% (announces favorable ruling in Mirapex patent challenge), TOT +2.0% (Indian Oil buys Gabon's Rabi light crude for August from Total - Bloomberg.com), SAP +1.5% (still checking), SII +1.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: NOVL +3.9% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), ARMH +3.2% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), BMY +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein), PTIE +1.1% (initiated with Buy at Piper).
Allapoole avanesid:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CBK -4.8% (also downgraded to Neutral at SunTrust), PALM -3.7%, KBH -3.5%, MU -1.7%... Select financial names showing modest weakness: MER -3.5% (Lehman says Merrill may take $5.4 bln in Q2 write-offs, cuts ests - Reuters), RBS -2.9% (Moody's downgrades ratings of Royal Bank of Scotland to Aa1/B; outlook stable), BCS -2.0% (Citigroup believes that despite raising 4.5 bln pounds they believe BCS may need a further 9 bln pounds), MS -1.4%, DB -1.3%... Select airline stocks ticking lower with crude near all-time highs: UAUA -4.7%, NWA -3.4%, DAL -2.9%, CAL -2.0%, AMR -1.3%... Other news: ESLR -8.8% (announces pricing of $325 million of senior convertible notes and entry into stock lending agreement and capped call transaction), HDSN -7.4% (files a $30 mln mixed securities shelf offering in an S-3), GSS -7.0% (announced that the cost of power from the national grid in Ghana will be increased), ERIC -5.9% (Sony Ericsson sees continued market challenges impacting sales and profit in the second quarter 2008), LMC -5.2% (still checking), HRZB -5.1% (expects non-performing assets and charge-offs to increase; reactivated search for a new CFO), AXA -4.6% (falls 4.8% in Europe on sector fears, downgrade - DJ), AIG -2.1% (poised to absorb $5 bln in losses from securities lending - Bloomberg.com), ACLI -1.1% (files $200 mln mixed securities shelf offering in an S-3)... Analyst comments: AEO -5.2% (downgraded to Hold at Lazard Capital and downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), DPZ -4.2% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), NOK -3.4% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), IGT -3.0% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), THI -2.5% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), WYNN -2.4% (downgraded to Underweight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts), RIMM -1.7% ( initiated with an Underperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $100), ZMH -1.7% (downgraded to Market Weight at Weisel), STAR -1.4% (initiated with a Sell at Morgan Joseph). -
Joel, kirjutad, et "Aasia oli eilse USA kukkumise järel väga punastes meeleoludes". FXI täna pigem tugev.
Kas ja millises osas kattuvad FXI ja Hong Kongi Hang Seng, Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) ja Shanghai B (välismaine)? -
FXI (jäljendab siis Xinhua China25 indeksi liikumist) oli eile -4.4%... ehk üle 3% miinuses USA turg andis eile selge vihje, et järgmisel päeval kindlasti ka Aasia punases avaneb ning FXIga kaubeldes arvestati seda juba sisse. Tänane kauplemine FXIga vaatab ette juba esmaspäevast võimalikku liikumist jne.
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Sector Leaders:
Gold Miners- GDX +2.8%, Steel- SLX +1.9%, Energy- IYE +1.5%, XLE +1.1%, Materials- IYM +1.3%, Nat. Gas- UNG +0.90%, Heating Oil- UHN +0.80%, Regional Banks- KRE +1.0%
Sector Laggards:
Industrials- XLI -2.0%, Solars- TAN -1.9%, KWT -1.8%, Internet- HHH -1.4%, Tech.- XLK -1.2%, Cons. Disct.- XLY -1.2%, Ags- DBA -0.90% -
Keskpäeva raport:
Sector Leaders:
Gold Miners- GDX +4.3%, Silver- SLV +2.3%, Oil Holders- OIH +1.8%, Steel- SLX +1.4%, Energy- IYE +1.3%, XLE +0.90%, Materials- IYM +1.2%, Heating Oil- UNH +1.0%, Oil- USO +0.90%
Sector Laggards:
Solars- TAN -2.7%, KWT -2.2%, Industrials- XLI -2.5%, Internet- HHH -2.2%, Clean Energy- PBW -1.9%, Cons. Disct.- XLY -1.9%, Tech.- XLK- 1.8%, QQQQ -0.50%, Commercial Banks- KBE - 1.7% -
Morgan Stanley: Moody's reviews Aa3 Morgan Stanley for downgrade
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Naftafutuurid tegid äsja uued tipud viies rekordi $142.54 barrel tasemele ning püsivad pealpool $142 barrel taset.
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Naftafutuuridel pole piire, uueks tipuks vormistati $142.70 barrel.
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Üritatakse minna läbi $143 barrel taset, hetkel tipp viidud $142.93-ni ning aktsiaturud müügisurve all, kus tänane põrke võimalus kahaneb nafta püsimisel tippudel.
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black monday, anyone?
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Järgmine nädal tuleb kahtlemata väga huvitav, esmaspäev kvartali viimane kauplemispäev+neljapäev lühike kauplemispäev ja reede pühade puhul turud suletud. Põrkeks võimalus üsna suur isegi nafta hinna püsimisel pealpool $140 barrel taset.
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Sector Leaders:
Gold Miners- GDX +4.6%, Silver- SLV +2.0%, Steel- SLX +1.3%, Oil Holders- OIH +1.2%, Energy- IYE +1.2%, XLE +0.80%, Healthcare- IYH +0.90%, Pharma.- PPH +0.90%, Materials- IYM +0.90%
Sector Laggards:
Solars- KWT -2.7%, TAN -2.7%, Industrials- XLI -2.7%, Wind Energy- FAN -2.3%, Clean Energy- PBW -2.0%, Ags.- DBA -1.8%, Broker/Dealers- IAI -1.7%, Cons. Disct.- XLY -1.7% -
lühikeste positsioonide omanikud tänasel turul :
http://naljakaim.naer.labi.aegade.pilk.ee/ -
"Nn karuturu piirist jääb puudu umbes 0,1 protsenti."
ÄP kirjutab nii aga kes selle piiri tõmbas või mida see nüüd siis tähendama peaks? -
See tähendab seda, et "Dow has now lost nearly 20% since its Oct. 9, 2007, record high of 14,165.".
-20% tipust on see üldine kokkuleppeline piir.
