Börsipäev 14. juuli
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Yahoo (YHOO) kinnitas täna, et ei ole nõus Microsofti (MSFT) ja Carl Icahni poolt reedel tehtud pakkumisega, mille kohaselt oleks Microsoft üle võtnud Yahoo otsingumootori äri. Yahoo juhatuse sõnul oleks antud tingimustel tehing olnud aktsionäridele ebasoodne ja ka strateegiliselt vale samm. Saab näha, mida spekulandist investor Icahn, kes omas 26. juuni seisuga ligi 5%-list aktsiapakki, järgmiseks välja mõtleb.
M&A teemadel jätkates… USA suurim õlletootja Anheuser-Busch (BUD) ja InBev on jõudnud kokkuleppele ühinemise osas. Anheuseri aktsionäridele makstakse $70 aktsia kohta ja uue ettevõtte nimeks saab Anheuser-Busch InBev. -
Tänases Bloombergi artiklis on Bill Gross sõna võtmas USA dollari ja Euroopa euro teemal. Grossi poolehoid on nüüd pärast 1999. aastat esimest korda pöördunud dollari kasuks. Mees väidab, et jaanuariks on tänastelt tasemetelt euro nõrgem nii dollari, jeeni kui naela vastu.
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Hommikused aktsiaindeksite futuurid on juba pisut üle protsendi plussis. Kas jõutakse arusaamale, et nädalavahetusel ei tulnudki maailma lõppu, Iraani-Iisraeli sõda ei olegi nii tõenäoline kui kardetud, nafta hind ei saagi võrduda külili lükatud kaheksaga ning Fannie Ja Freddie probleemid said reedel Föderaalreservi poolt ulatatud abistava käe võrra sammukese lähemale lahendusele...
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FRE ja FNM on tänased olulised turuliigutajad. Kui ilma eriliste tõrgeteta suudetaks läbi viia ka $3 miljardi ulatuses võlakirjade müük, mõjub see finants- ja kinnisvarasektorile positiivselt ning arvatavasti tuleb siit kergendusralli.
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Venemaal kehtivad tänasest uued intressimäärad. Tegemist oli neljanda tõstmisega selle aasta jooksul ning refinantseerimismäär on nüüd 11%. Inflatsioon ulatub Venemaal 15.1%, kuid valitsuse aastalõpu prognoos on 10.5%. Üsna selgelt seda täita ei suudeta, kuid vähemalt ollakse inflatsiooni ohjeldamiseks midagi tegemas.
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Kui ulatuslikku rubla tugevnemist võiks nii aastases perspektiivis oodata? Mulle tundub, et pikk positsioon rubla+jüaan vs. dollar+euro võiks olla suht. sure bet - iseasi, kas selleks mingeid tavainimesele kättesaadavaid instrumente on.
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Kui rääkida põhjanaabritest, siis EasyJet Plc teatas lennuliini Helsinki-London avamisest. Airbusi lennuk hakkab lendama London-Gatwick ja Helsinki-Vantaa vahet.
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lauris71, rublas pikk olemine ongi suhtelist sure bet, aga äkki on nii, et keskpank üritab volatiilususe tõstmisega ja kauplemisvahemiku lainendamisega jätta teistsugust muljet...? Üks võimalus on, et kui intressimäärad tõusevad ja rubla tugevnemine on oodatud, siis tuleb spekulante volatiilsusega peletada. Sest valuutareservi suurendamine ei lähe just kokku inflatsiooni vastu võitlemise loogikaga, küll aga sobib eeltoodud mõttega.
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Eurotsooni IP langes:
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Industrial production in the 15 countries that use the euro plummeted in May, recording the largest monthly decline since the end of 1992.
According to figures released Monday by the European Union's statistics agency Eurostat, industrial production fell 1.9% from April, and 0.6% from May 2007. The monthly decline was smaller than expected, although the year-on-year decline was a surprise. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week had estimated factory output fell 2.3% on the month and rose 0.4% on the year.
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Kuradi õlletootjad hakkavad ka farmaatsiast eeskuju võtma ja ühinemiste järel mingeid rõvedaid nimemonstrumeid endale võtma. Ma nii ootan, et ühineksid GSK ja AZN. Uus nimi AstraZenecaGlaxosmithkline oleks ju nii lihtne ja meeldejääv.
Aga õlleteemasse tagasi tulles, mina oleks soovitanud firma nimeks Bud IN. -
naljaga pooleks saanuks BIN BUDEN jne.
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Good point, Jim :) Õnneks võttis Carlsberg Scottish & Newcastle'i üle koos Heineken'iga, vastasel juhul oleks ka seal olnud oht uut lohisevat firmanime näha...
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Fuel-Tech (FTEK) on suhteliselt väike, alla $500 miljonilise turuväärtusega ettevõte, mille peamiseks tegevusalaks on fossiilsete kütuste peal töötavate elektirjaamade põlemisprotsesside optimieerimine. Eesmärgiks on, et põlemiskambrites tekiks vähem tahma ja räbu ning et põlemine oleks efektiivsem. Räbu on päris oluline efektiivsuse tapja ning poole aasta eest Fuel-Techi uurides lugesime lugusid, kuidas vanasti võeti räbu vastu võideldes kasutusele pumppüssid, mille abil põlemiskambrite lagedest autosuuruseid tükke alla lasti.
Kogu triangel nafta hinna ning kliimasoojenemise ümber peaks ettevõtte tegevust toetama, kuid samas sõltutakse veel mitmest asjaolust. Üheks selliseks on CAIR (Clean Air Interstate Rule), mille vastuvõtmise eesmärgiks oli vähendada CO2 mahtusid 70% võrreldes 2003. aasta tasemega. Nüüd on seadus saanud aga tagasilöögi...:
On Friday the DC Circuit Court of Appeals struck down the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Air InterstateRule (CAIR).
...mistõttu Morgan Stanley arvates võib aktsia jääda lähiajal müügisurve alla:
Since the implementation of CAIR was a key regulatory driver for demand of Fuel Tech's Air Pollution Control (APC) orders in the US, this decision and the uncertainly regarding any new CAIR plan submitted by the EPA is a near-term negative for FTEK.
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Fannie ja Freddie teemal panen siia päris vürtsika kommentaari kurikuulsalt Jim Cramerilt, kes 3 minutit enne reedese börsipäeva lõppu karjus väga õigesti veel, et nüüd on aeg FNM ja FRE'le calle (ostuoptsioone) osta. FNM ja FRE eelturul ca 25% kõrgemal juba...
Cramer: "I think that two things happen here. One is that Fannie and Freddie mortgage-backed paper is now a great buy because of how explicit the guarantee is. The second is that we are in a heap of trouble for the next few years, because the losses that Fannie and Freddie will incur will be horrendous until we get through the bad mortgage vintages (2005 to 2007).
So, let em rally, then put 'em out again, just like always."
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Infot eelturult siis veel. Ameeriklased ärkavad üles ja näevad indeksfutuure kauplemas juba +1.6% kõrgematel tasemetel võrreldes reedega.
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Citigroup räägib järgmist juttu:
Trouble in Tallinn: Stagflation, Rising Bad Debts
* Stagflation in Estonia and Latvia X Baltic economic growth has slowed
dramatically. Estonian GDP growth is already at zero and Latvia is following.
For now, Lithuania is holding out. At the same time, inflation is high and
rising (Latvia 18% yoy, May). With domestic growth decelerating and
competitiveness weakening, the future growth expectations look poor.
* Credit Growth Decelerating X Rapid loan growth has led to Estonia and Latvia
having higher credit penetration than all their CEE peers. In fact, Estonia's
90% loan-to-GDP ratio is similar to developed EU countries such as France,
Greece and Italy. The foreign-owned leading banks have tightened credit
conditions, which will further slow domestic growth.
* Weak Property Markets X Not surprisingly, property transactions have slowed
significantly: in Estonia, transactions in 1Q08 declined 40% yoy (based on
contract values). Construction activity is also slowing as is application for
new housing starts. Baltic capital city property prices are in-line with
capital cities in smaller countries in much richer developed Europe.
* Asset Quality Deteriorating X Stagflation, tightening credit conditions and
weakening property markets had led to rising bad debts. NPLs have risen
rapidly: Estonian NPLs (60 days) increased to 1.4% in May 2008 from 0.9% (March
2008) and 0.7% (end 2007). Latvian NPLs (90 days) increased to 1.4% (March
2008) from 0.7% (end 2007) and likely rose further during 2Q08.
* Swedbank and SEB X In 2007, Swedbank earned 28% of its profits from the
Baltics. For SEB, it was 19%. Swedbank's Baltic loan book is 322% of its Tier 1
capital; for SEB, 188%. 2Q08 results will be inflated by one-offs. But we
expect 2H08 and 2009-10 results to be hit by the Baltic slowdown. We reiterate
our Hold rating on Swedbank (target price SKr120 down from SKr185) and SEB
(target price SKr110 down from SKr145). -
Njah
Kõigepealt ajasid karud, pullid metsast välja, siis ajasid pullid, karud metsa tagsi ja päevalõpus tuli Crameri-i onu ja ajas kõik, nii karud, kui ka pullid metsast välja. -
Goldman Sachs' Cohen says their sense is that over next 6-12 months fair value on the S&P 500 is on the order of 1400. Kes ei tea, siis tänastelt tasemetelt tähendaks see üle 12%list tõusu...
Suhteliselt sarnast mõttekäiku ja sihti kirjeldasin 1. juulil ka LHV Pro all:
"The historic P/E for the market lies in the 16-18x range. 17x multiple for 07=09 earnings gives us a 1400 target for S&P500 which I believe will very likely be achievable in the next 0.5 to 1.5 year timeframe. " -
Kas on olnud ÜKS kord, millel AJ Cohen oleks natukenegi karune olnud? ÜKS kord? :-D
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Karum6mmil on hea mälu nimede osas :)
Cohen on jah olnud optimismi kehastus ise, kuid aasta alguse prognoose on ta nüüdseks 1675 pealt kenasti alla kerinud. Üks lühiartikkel Coheni paduoptimismist aasta alguses on siin. -
Prügitööstusest sai põgusalt kirjutatud 16. juuni börsipäeva foorumis. Täna on Waste Management (WMI) tõstmas teise kvartali kasumiprognoose:
WMI sees Q2 EPS of $0.61-0.62 vs $0.58 consensus; sees revs of $3.49 bln vs $3.42 bln consensus
Aktsia on vahepeal langenud (trailing PE 16) ning kuigi hinnataset väga odavaks ei pea, siis tänase uudise najal näeb WMI ise sektoris oluliselt rohkem kasvuvõimalusi. Nimelt tehti ülevõtupakkumine Republic Service'le (RSG). Ühe aktsia eest ollakse nõus maksa $34, mis on 22% kõrgem reedesest sulgemishinnast ning sellisel juhul kaupleks RSG 22.5-kordsel kasumil.
Sektoris on huvitavad ajad, sest selle pakkumisega rikutakse tõenäoliselt RSG ja Allied Waste'i (AW) ühinemiskõnelused. Viimane on seetõttu päeva alustamas tugevas miinuses, muutudes kasumikasvu arvestades hinnatasemelt juba atraktiivsemaks.
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Suures tuhinas leiab ka selliseid pealkirju: "Waste Management offers to buy Allied Waste." (AP)
See pole aga WMI enda juhtkonna poolt veel kinnitust leidnud ning esialgu jäädakse siiski RSG juurde. Kui just 45 minutiga ümber ei mõeldud. :)
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Euroopa ja Aasia põhiindeksid:
Saksamaa DAX +1.38%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.91%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.94%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.69%
Venemaa MICEX +2.25%
Poola WIG -0.04%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.23%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.77%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.76%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.76%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.34%
Tai Set 50 -2.02%
India Sensex -1.03%
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Bounce Alert!
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/14/2008 8:12 AM EDT
I saved a girl from being attacked last night. I controlled myself.
-- Rodney Dangerfield
The indices are set to gap up big on news of a rescue plan for Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) . Of course, it would have been a lot better if they had controlled themselves in the first place and didn't need be saved, but at least we are forestalling some problems in the short term.
The big question now is whether the bailout plan is anything more than a band-aid. Does this move by the feds really change anything fundamental about the market? Have we already priced in all the problems out there?
Before we answer the question, we have to acknowledge the fact that the market has become quite oversold and is due to bounce. We have been going almost straight down for over a month and are due for at least some temporary relief. The Fannie and Freddie bailout is a perfect catalyst for a bounce. Some might even hope that it will make for a major turning point in the indices. That seems overly hopeful and unlikely, but we are due for some upside; what we have to figure out is how far it will go and how long will it last.
The bad news is that the failure of the 30th-largest bank in the U.S., Indymac (IMB) , over the weekend has helped raise a new crop of worries. We haven't heard that much about the issues in some of the smaller regional banks, but this collapse does raise the visibility. The banking sector still has some tremendous problems, and many of them aren't fully appreciated by the market.
The possible good news is that a bounce at this point could be aided by earnings season. Expectations are obviously quite low, and that sets up the possibility of a "buy the bad news" reaction to some reports. We will have to wait and see the market's attitude, but so far GE (GE) and Alcoa (AA) have had minor positive reactions since they reported their earnings. Tuesday night we start to see some of the more important reports, and that will be the real test for this market.
In the meantime, we have to contend with a big gap up open this morning. It is never easy when we have this sort of move on Monday morning. So often they fail, but occasionally we do get a "gap and go" move. I see no reason to be overly trusting and I continue to be more focused on playing defense in a bear market than worrying about an oversold bounce. I'll move slowly at the open and see how things develop as the day progresses. If we really are due for a good rally, it should last longer than an hour or two -- or even a day.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ATI +11.5%, CSIQ +11.1%... M&A news: RSG +19.4% (Waste Management proposes to acquire Republic Services for $34.00/share in cash), BUD +1.7% (InBev and Anheuser-Busch agree to combine; BUD shareholders to receive $70/share)... Mortgage/financial names rebounding following Treasury's Paulson announcing GSE initiatives for FNM (+33.8%) and FRE (+35.7%): LEH +16.4%, MBI +9.0%, CIT +8.4%, SLM +6.3%, MER +5.0%, C +5.0%, WFC +4.8%, BAC +4.8%, GS +3.4%, MS +3.3%, JPM +3.3%, WB +3.1%, HBC +2.4%... Select solar stocks showing strength boosted by positive CSIQ earnings/guidance: SOLF +7.7% (Solarfun Power and Schuco enter into 47 MW sales contract), YGE +4.1%, LDK +3.5%, STP +3.2%, SPWR +2.8%, ESLR +2.7%, FSLR +2.5%... Other news: CRME +23.5% (announces "positive Phase 2b results for oral Vernakalant"), NDAQ +10.6% (mentioned positively in Barron's), PHG +5.8% (shares rise most in 5 years as profit beats estimates - Bloomberg.com), PPG +1.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: CIEN +5.0% (upgraded to Market Perform at JMP), M +4.7% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), FAST +4.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), AA +3.0% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman-DJ), NOV +2.3% (upgraded to Buy at BofA).
Allapoole avanevad:
M&A news: WMI -2.4% (Waste Management proposes to acquire Republic Services for $34.00/share in cash)... Other news: IMB -50.0% (seized as financial troubles spread - Reuters), CGV -5.0% (still checking), FRO -1.7% (says higher fuel costs may spur tankers to slow down - Bloomberg.com), RDS.A -1.6% (to buy Duvernay Oil - DJ), CLNE -1.5% (files a $150 mixed securities shelf offering in an S-3), TEVA -1.1% (still checking), YHOO -1.1% (Yahoo! rejects Microsoft/Icahn search and restructuring proposal)... Analyst comments: ZION -4.0% (downgraded to Sell and added to Conviction Sell List at Goldman - DJ), MAN -2.0% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), SAPE -1.5% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), PSO -1.0% (downgraded to Sell at Deutsche Bank). -
Freddie Mac: 3-month bill rate seen 2.34-2.35%, 6-month bill rate seen 2.51-2.52%, according to buyside source who has seen indicative pricing - Reuters
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Päris kole vaatepilt igal juhul - kuigi nüüd on tagasi nulli jõutud, siis vahepeal olid FRE ja FNM langenud -8% peale. Lootus väga kaua vastu ei pidanud. Samal ajal tulemas Reutersi vahendusel ka uudiseid Bernanke sõnavõtust:
Fed says new final mortgage rules ban prepayment penalties if payment can rise in first 4 years, ban deceptive mortgage advertising, prohibit use of "fixed" when rate or payment can change
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Madis Toomsalu, good catch on FTEK.
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jim, kasutasid?
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Mõtlen, et kui Republic Services (RSG) kaupleb ülevõtuhinna suhtes 7% madalamal, siis kas see äkki liiga suur riskikartlikkus ei ole. Allied Wastega (AW) ühinemisprotsess ei tohiks takistuseks olla (Waste Management noted that the Republic-Allied merger agreement expressly contemplates alternative proposals from third parties and defines a process for Republic to respond to those proposals), kapitali peaks jätkuma ning konurentsireegleid ei rikuta (The proposal provided to the Republic Board directly addresses the antitrust issues and concretely demonstrates the Company’s confidence that these issues can and will be dealt with in an effective and timely manner). Tõenäoliselt kardetakse kõige enam viimase pärast, aga need lihtsalt random mõtted.
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Madis, ei, avanemisel olid muud asjad silmapiiril ja ei jõudnud kõike rabada.
Selliseid asju ootaks rohkem, kus on mingi idee ka olemas, mitte lihtsalt kopipaste. -
Mis sellel QQV äkki hakkas, et nii kolinal kukkus?
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CNBC vahendusel üks võimalik nimekiri pankadest siis, mis võivad põhja minna:
CNBC highlights Ladenburg's list of banks that could be at risk: DSL, DRL, BFF, BKUNA, CORS, FBP, FED, FBC, SBP... Says WM is on the edge of the "danger zone" -
Ladenburg kasutab sama diplomaatilist väljendit nagu meie vahel - "could be at risk". Siit nimekirjast mõni "could be at risk" sama palju, kui prussakas, kes on niidi otsa seotud alasi alla teibiga kinni pitseeritud. Sest fakt on see, et isegi alasi ripub niidi otsas. Kuigi ehk ainult millisekundi jagu.
