Börsipäev 21. juuli
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Roche pakub DNA eest $89 per share. Ma olen üsna kindel, et pakkumine selle hinnaga läbi ei lähe ja Roche tuleb kõrgema hinnaga välja. Kuni $91, võibolla ka kuni $92 on ilmselt hea ost, sest ootaks isegi $95 puutumist täna. DNA on Roche omanduses palju rohkem väärt kui eraldiseisvana, kui arvestada nende firmade omavahelisi tugevaid seoseid (Avastin jne on koos arendatud). Long @ $91.
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Lisaks veel, DNA alt vabaneb suurusjärgus $50 mld biotechi investorite raha, mis hakkab uusi kohtasid otsima. GILD, AMGN, BIIB jne on kõik lähimal ajal väga tugevad tõenäoliselt.
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Finantssektor saab taas tuge:
BAC prelim $0.72 vs $0.53 First Call consensus; revs $20.32 bln vs $18.37 bln First Call consensus -
DNA müüdud @ $96 kopikatega. Oleks vaid mune olnud, et rohkem seda võtnud oleks :)
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Ilus treid jim.
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väga ilus treid.
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Goldman Sachs on täna alandamas Sherwin-Williams’i (SHW) reitingu “Müü” peale, hinnasihiga $46 (new Street low). Ettevõte tegeleb värvide (paints, coatings, and related products) tootmise ja turustamisega. Praegune kinnisvaraturu keskkond ei ole kindlasti firmat hellitanud ning seda peegeldab ka langustrendis olnud aktsia hind. Samas viimase nelja kauplemispäeva jooksul on tänu kardetust parematele majandustulemuste (ettevõtte oli 3. juunil juba kärpinud Q2 ja FY08 prognoose ehk ootused olid madalad) ja üldisele positiivsele foonile (vaata ka XHB graafikut) aktsia kerkinud 20% võrra. Ootaks täna müügihuvi tekkimist tänu GS’i kommentaaridele.
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America Movil (AMX) on Ladina-Ameerika telekom, mis koos turu viimaste päevade tõusuga on põrganud oma juuli keskel tehtud aasta põhjadest. Aktsia tegi selle aasta tipu aprillis $67 juures ning kaupleb täna $53 lähedal, olles põrganud üle-eelmise nädala põhjast $48 peal.
AMXi esimese kvartali tulemused ei olnud kiita: marginaalid languses, konkurents ning regulatsioonide hulk kasvamas ning tulud alla ootuste (risks include regulatory environment, insider ownership (Carlos Slim owns 49% of the company), increased wireless competition, and slower economic growth in Mexico and Brazil).
AMX avaldab oma tulemused täna peale turgu, kuid Morgan Stanley arvates on hea aeg aktsiate soetamiseks juba enne tulemusi. Usutakse konsensuse ületamist ning sellisel juhul peaks aktsia liikuma $58-60 vahemikku. MS lisas aktsia oma watch listi juuni keskel, seega oli vihje võimalikuks ostusoovituseks antud juba toona.
Kuigi arvatavasti tuleb päev pigem positiivne, siis peale eelmise nädala tõusu on isegi MS-l keeruline siit olulist ostuhuvi tekitada. Küll aga on neil, kes MSi ootustega ühel meelel, võimalus panustada tulemustele:
In our view, AMX’s reporting of 2Q08 results is the most important event for the stock in several quarters as they will reveal whether the weakness in 1Q08 revenues was an isolated event due to seasonal factors or a secular change in growth trends. We believe the former is the case.
Praegu spread lai ja aktsia eelmise reede sulgemishinna lähedal.
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Suvi käes ja scam hakkab pihta, WCI spaikis kuni 2.59ni selle peale
News-Press.com reports WCI Communities could be sold to another company in a deal worth $220 mln, according to a press release that was faxed to The News-Press. Jerry Starkey announced that he received a bid Saturday for the Bonita Springs-based company, according to WCI's statement. The offer came days after the company dissolved its special committee to review alternative proposals from affiliates, according to the statement. The company's board of directors is scheduled to meet this week to review the offer. WCI did not identify the bidder. Stock prices would reach $5.25 each under the deal. WCI's stock closed at $1.37 per share Friday
Nüüd uus info, et:
Winknews.com is reporting WCI's Chief Executive Officer Jerry Starkey says he's not sure why somebody is sending-out news releases on his company's behalf. On Saturday, WINK News and other media outlets in Southwest Florida received a news release purportedly from home builder WCI communities. The release stated somebody had made an offer to purchase the company. WCI's Chief Executive Officer tells WINK News the release was not true. Starkey adds there has been no offer made to purchase the Bontia Springs home builder, and he does not know who sent the news release. (Briefing.note: We spoke with a company representative who confirmed that the co has not issued a press release, as reported in earlier stories) -
Promising Environment Still Holds Dangers
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/21/2008 7:56 AM EDT
Whom the gods wish to destroy they first call promising.
-- Cyril Connolly
The huge bounce in banks and brokers and the breakdown of crude oil prices has given us a promising start to better action. Of course, you have to cringe a bit when you see how quickly many pundits are once again declaring that the worst is over and we are ready to trend up from here.
At this point all we have is a pretty energetic bear-market rally. The nature of these types of moves is to be fast and furious, which causes the cautious folks on the sidelines to rush in and accelerate the spike even more out of fear that they will be left out because the big turn is finally here.
While it could possibly be true that the low is in, market players are still in a very difficult spot. The overall market trend is still down and there really is nothing technically at this point to be bullish about.
As I went through hundreds of stock charts this weekend, I was surprised at how few offered favorable setups. At least when the market was struggling, we had some leading sectors like oil, steel, coal and agriculture that were doing well. Now what we have are a few of the lagging sectors, primarily financials, with big moves off the lows and few good entry points unless you want to chase a huge short-term move.
One of the more frustrating things about the market is that finding good technical chart setups to buy doesn't necessarily correlate with the action in the major indices. In fact, the market will often go up quite a bit well before better chart formations start to occur. The reason is that good charts are a function of holding lows and building bases. A straight-up bounce to resistance levels is more often a short setup rather than a buying opportunity.
The market can feel extremely frustrating at times like this, because we have so many in the media celebrating the recent relief bounce; even worse are the confident predictions about how the market is sure to be better going forward. When you hear these things but fail to find any great supply of charts to buy, you can't help but think you are missing out.
The important thing is to make sure you stick with our discipline. Just because a bunch of broken-down financials have finally bounced after getting crushed doesn't mean you rush in and throw a lot of money at lousy chart setups. Making good money is a function of waiting for a good pitch. Sure, you might do some short-term trading in this volatile environment, but you shouldn't be loading the boat until the longer-term picture improves.
This morning it looks like our bounce is continuing as Bank of America (BAC) adds to the list of banks beating expectations. We have a slew of earnings reports to navigate this week, and we need some positive action in technology stocks if this market is going to continue to improve. Crude oil is bouncing, so we'll have to see how that impacts the mood if it starts to recover more aggressively.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BAC +12.6%, CRNT +6.0%, HAS +0.9%... M&A news: DNA +16.3% (Roche makes offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Genentech for $89.00/share in cash; also upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Lehman), TAC +14.3% (LS Power and Global Infrastructure Partners jointly propose acquisition of TransAlta for C$39 per share)... Mortgage/financial names showing continued strength boosted by BAC Q2 results: FNM +12.6%, FRE +10.6%, WM +8.6%, ABK +8.5%, NCC +7.9%, WB +7.2%, STI +6.6%, RF +6.3%, RBS +4.7%, LEH +4.7%, UBS +4.7%, ING +4.6%, LYG +4.4%, BCS +4.3%, HBC +4.1%, C +3.4%, CS +2.4%, MER +2.1%, AXA +1.9%, CIT +1.4%, MS +1.2%... Select mining stocks showing strength: BHP +4.8%, MT +4.4%, RTP +4.4%, AAUK +4.2%, GLD +1.1%... Select coal names ticking higher on very light volume: ICO +5.0%, NCOC +4.6%, BTU +4.5%, JRCC +2.6%, ACI +1.3%... Other news: NOG +14.0% (announces "significant" Bakken Discoveries, Three Forks/Sanish Plans), ASML +2.8% (still checking), XMSR +2.3% (says exceeds 9.6 mln subscribers; sees subscription revs for Q2 in the range of $283-288 mln)... Analyst comments: ROCK +6.7% (upgraded to Buy at Piper), KEY +5.7% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), AIG +4.7% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), BIIB +2.1% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill), TEVA +1.4% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), POT +1.4% (FY08 and FY09 ests raised at J.P Morgan).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: WFT -2.1%... Select airline stocks showing weakness with crude (131.12 +1.65) rebounding following last week's slide: UAUA -5.5% (Moody's lowered UAL Corp. debt ratings -- corporate family to Caa1), CAL -5.0%, DAL -4.8%, AMR -3.2%, NWA -2.8%, LCC -2.4%... Other news: ARTC -18.8% (to restate financial statements), SFI -5.5% (Moody's downgrades iStar; outlook remains negative), AU -3.8% and GFI -2.2% (still checking), SHPGY -3.0% (still checking), CCL -1.7% (under pressure with higher crude), YHOO -1.3% (announces settlement with Carl Icahn; says Carl Icahn will be appointed to the Board), AZN -1.2% (still checking)... Analyst comments: SAY -2.6% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse and downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), MSW -2.6% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at J.P Morgan), DEO -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), WERN -1.4% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), SWK -1.4% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank). -
Euroopa ja Aasia põhiindeksid:
Saksamaa DAX +1.25%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.74%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.87%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.32%
Venemaa MICEX +0.87%
Poola WIG +2.10%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (Suletud)
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.01%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.99.%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.07%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +3.51%
Tai Set 50 +4.19%
India Sensex +1.57%
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Paneksin siia täna RealMoney alt Scott Rothborti väga sapise kommentaari Winnebago (WGO) kohta: "CNBC is reporting that Winnebago (WGO) is saying that business has gotten worse over the last month. Also the company is concerned about a pricing war to clear inventory. The move from under $10 to $12 was all short covering off of the decline in crude oil. This stock is heading lower on fundamental deterioration."
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on's keegi XRIT jälginud? on korralikult viimasel ajal tõusnud... on miskit uudist?
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SanDiski (SNDK) tulemused tulid tugevalt alla ootuste..
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American Express (AXP) jäi ootustele suurelt alla, nõrga majanduse tõttu loobuti oma pikaajalisest kasumikasvu prognoosist ning tõdeti, et kõige keerulisem kuu oli just juuni.
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AAPL Q3 EPS was $1.19 vs $1.08 First Call consensus; revs $7.46 bln vs $7.37 bln First Call consensus
AAPL sees Q4 $1.00 vs $1.24 First Call consensus; sees revs $7.8 mln vs $8.32 bln First Call consensus
Prognoos konservatiivne nagu alati. -
Kirvemeetodil võib öelda, et kui arvestada Apple'i viimase paari aasta analüütikute ootuste biitimist, jääb seekordne prognoos natuke liiga palju ootustele alla.
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Madis.. kuna Apple prognoosides suuri numbreid öelnud on? :)
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No seda räägingi, et tavaliselt ei ole, aga et seekord natuke liiga suur vahe. Aga briefing tuli ka kohe otsa:
While the co historically issues conservative guidance, the Q4 guidance given in today's release falls well below analysts expectations and is even more conservative than is typically issued. No explanation in the report was given behind the co's guidance, so the initial reaction to the results could temper depending upon the outlook discussed in the call.
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Papertrade homseni... long AAPL@156.25 :)
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Boohoo! Radovan Karadzic arreteeriti Serbias. Ei tea kas see kohalikule börsile avaldab mõju.
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WellCare Group to restate 2004, 2005, 2006 and 1Q07 and 2Q07 financials (29.23 -2.33)
mäletame sügisest veel seda mega drop'i 120 -> 20
siiani ei ole tegelt selgunud, mida FBI nende kontorites tuhnib
finantsaruannete ümbertegemised on üks tagajärg, tõenäoliselt
samas, cashi on mingi 40$ jagu aktsi kohta ja aktsia hind alla 30ne -
nii, jutt käib mingist up to $50m, mis ollakse klientidele võlgu ja tuleb tagasi maksta
kui see ongi see uurimise põhjus, siis see on peanuts, jääb veel oodata mis penalty tuleb
WCG l on cashi üle 1.6B
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Nüüd vist võiks Applet vaikselt näppima hakata. Jobsi kohta antud kommentaari peale 5 punkti alla tulek tundub mulle liialdatuna. Aga reaalse rahaga näppima ei hakka, ei ole head tunnet sellega. Pole praegu näinud midagi sellist, mille peale osta tahaks ja lihtsalt kõhutundel põhinev nüüdpeaksvistostmasestniipaljukukkunud ei tundu piisavalt hea mõte.
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Speedy, sellel restatementi pole suure tõenäosusega seost antud uurimisega. Niiet status quo uurimise osas.. ja aktsia on ennegi allpool cashi kaubelnud. Seega võib rahus seal edasi kaubelda :)
Mis puutub restatementi mõttetusse, siis ARTC tänane restatement uudis ei tundunud ka kuigi oluline :) Sellised asjad hävitavad usaldust ettevõtte vastu, isegi kui numbrites muutused ei olegi niivõrd suured.
Pealegi on veel rasked ajad health care sektoris (vt UNH, HUM, etc, kõik hoogsalt kukkunud), kulud suurenenud, aga kliendid tahavad kokku hoida. -
ARTC on üks oluline asi puudu, WCG cash cushion on lihtsalt liiga pehme
cash is the king, vaatamata nüanssidele - kas need rasked ajad võiks tähendada seda, et need ettevõtted hakkavad lossi panema või lihtsalt nende tulud vähenevad? teisel juhul ei ole see cash ka kuskile kadumas.
mis puutub uurimisse, siis WCG pani paralleelselt ka oma uurimise käima - et head välja näha või siis välja selgitada, milles probleem.
Tänaseks on sellest juba 9 kuud möödas. Eeldaks et selle aja peale on uurimistel juba mingid tulemused ning usalduse seisukohalt oleks ülioluline, et ettevõte ise vead leiab ja need parandab enne kui fed seda teeb.
aga jah, samas ei ole ka välistatud, et rohkem luukeresid poleks.
varem või hiljem selgub kahju ulatus ning siis võiks aktsia kaubelda vähemalt cash miinus penalty -
ma veel mõtlesin natuke selle asja üle
siiski arvan, et see restatement on just selle uurimisega seotud, miks?
selle üle on algusest peale ruumorid liikunud, et kuskil on kellegile liiga tehtud ning just seda uuritakse. asjaga tegeleb "fraud unit".
tänaseks on tippjuhtkond välja vahetatud ning ma ei usu, et nad riskivad uue restatementi võimalusega.
uurimiseks on olnud piisavalt aega ning ei ole neil mingit survet poolikult asi välja laduda, nad võiks veel aega kulutada kui selleks tunduks vajadus.
kogu asi sai alguse tõenäoliselt mingist väiksest kaebusest, mõni nutikas oskas kalkuleerida. täiendava uurimise käigus leiti pattern
ning $50m on piisav põhjus algatada fedi reid. ja see võibki olla kõik. penalty võiks olla max. equal the damage, samuti mingi 50m(tundub see number loogiline?)
õhku jääb aga veel 1 tähtis "?"
enamus WCG ärist tuli valitsuse klientide kaudu ning sellise jama järel võib olla keeruline uusi lepinguid võita
aga, nagu me kõik teame, seal puha kristlased kõik, ehk andestavad ;) -
AAPL papertrade kinni@156.35 :D Ilmselgelt sai liiga vara seda eile näpitud (õnneks mitte päris rahaga). Ei maksa ikka enne pressikonverentsi positsioone võtta :)
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Goddamn, see muhu õlu on some good shit... jõudsin tagasi, lugesin uudiseid ja arutelusid tagantjärgi, siinse speedy WCG jutu vaatasin kah emotsioonideta üle ja kahetsesin et ei jõudnud võtta, nüüd läksin oma portfelii ja vaatasin wtf need "GCJIG"-d mul siin on, üldse ei mäleta et oleksin eelmise nädala lõpus neid võtnud..... :P
Selline puhkus(elt tagasitulek) ruulib...
