Börsipäev 28. juuli
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Sohu.com (SOHU) on oma tulemustega löömas kõiki ootusi. 2. kvartali kasumiks kujunes aktsiapõhiselt 92 senti, mis on mäekõrguselt üle oodatud 67-st sendist. Müügitulu kasv ca +160% ning top line suuruses $102 miljonit tugevalt üle oodatud $96.5 miljoni. Eelmise aasta sama kvartaliga võrreldes on brändi reklaamitulud kasvanud 57%, muud reklaamitulud 53%, online mängude tulud 11.5 korda, mitte-reklaamitulud 4.5 korda...
Lisaks antakse ka positiivne tuleviku nägemus kolmandale kvartalile - EPSi nähakse $1.00 kuni $1.05 vs oodatud $0.71 ning müügitulu prognoos $112 kuni $116 miljonit vs senine konsensus $106.8 miljonit. Väga võimsad tulemused Sohu.comi poolt. Tulemusi aitasid lüüa kiiresti kasvavad reklaamitulud tänu lähenevatele Pekingi Olümpiamängudele.
Numbrid on ilusad ning tänane päev peaks ettevõte aktsionäridele magusaks kujunema.
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Vaataks korraks üle ka, mida energiasektoris toorme hinnad on viimasel ajal teinud. Eriti valusalt on pihta saanud maagaasi ja kivisöesektor.
Maagaasi 2 aasta graafik (oktoober 08 leping) - tipust langust ca -32%:
 väike punane.PNG)
Kivisöe 2 aasta graafik (oktoober 08 leping) - tipust langust ca -30%:
 väike punane.PNG)
Nafta 2 aasta graafik (oktoober 08 leping) - tipust langust ca -16%:
 väike punane.PNG)
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Teises kvartalis oli nafta keskmine hind $120 dollarit barreli kohta. Võrreldes 2007. aasta 2Q on hind umbes kahekordistunud.
Analüütikud ootavad sel nädalal naftatootjatelt rekordkasumeid. 2Q kasumikasvuks oodatakse keskmiselt 30%.
Maailma suurim erasektorile kuuluv naftatootja Exxon Mobil tuleb tulemustega neljapäeval. Kasumiks oodatakse $13 mld dollarit (2Q 2007 10.3 mld).
Suuruselt teine Royal Dutch Shell raporteerib konsensuse ootuste kohaselt 20% CCS kasumikasvu, kust on eemaldatud ühekordsed laekumised. See teeb kasumiks $8.3 mld dollarit.
BP kasumikasvuks ootab konsensus 44% (naftaväljade müügita). BP puhaskasum peaks tulema $7.7 mld dollarit.
Exxoni ja Royal Dutch Shelli tulemused tulevad neljapäeval ja BP teisipäeval. -
Aga sealt väikegi vihje, et inimesed enam kütust õllekannuga ei joo vaid pitsidest ja seda ka nädalavahatusel, siis kukkumiseks ruumi küll.
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WSJ andmetel üritab SEC lühikeseks müüki veelgi piirata, pikendades müügipiiranguid ning laiendades nimekirja teistesse sektoritesse.
WSJ reports Wall Street executives expect the SEC to extend the temporary limits it has placed on short-selling and expand them to cover additional stocks beyond the 19 financial companies it targeted two weeks ago. The limits are set to expire Tuesday, and executives, lobbyists and hedge-fund representatives of the Managed Funds Association, the biggest hedge-fund industry group, have been talking throughout the weekend, trying to come up with possible approaches to asking the SEC to reconsider expanding the rules, according to people familiar with the talks. A call with regulators on Friday gave the funds group "a fair degree of certainty" that the SEC intends to seek an extension of the emergency period, these people said. Regulators said an extension could be for as short as 60 days and could involve insurance, housing-industry and a broader range of financial stocks, according to these people. SEC Chairman Christopher Cox indicated last week the rules might be extended to all stocks.
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Kas selline asi nagu maagasi maailmaturu hind reaalselt ka eksisteerib. Igatahes pole seda majaomanikuna kyll tunda.
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Eesti peaks minu teada ostma fikseeritud hinnaga Gazpromilt
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Credit Suisse on täna väljas negatiivse kommentaariga Macau kasiinode teemadel ning usub, et hiljutine surnud kassi põrge on leidmas oma õnnetu lõpu. Viimase põrke põhjuseks on olnud suur lühikeste positsioonide katmine, korralikud juuni külastusnumbrid ja WYNNi oodatust paremad neljapäevased kvartalitulemused, kus EPS oli oodatust 20% suurem. Credit Suisse usub, et Macau regiooni külastatavate inimeste augusti numbrid on nii-öelda lose-lose situatsioon. Kui numbrid on tugevad, kerkivad üles hirmud regiooni külastamise jätkuvate ja uute piirangute ees ning kui numbrid on nõrgad, siis kardetakse, et piirangud on avaldamas olulist negatiivset mõju sealsetele kasiinodele-hotellidele.
Mõned graafikud siis ka siia Macau kasiinodest:
WYNN:
ja MPEL:
WYNN kaupleb täna ca 30x 2009. aasta kasumit ning MPEL 24x. Jätkuvalt mitte just kõige väiksemad kordajad...
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kala23 ja anoogen - minu teada ka fikseeritud hinnaga ja iga teatud aja tagant (aasta?) vaadatakse see hind uuesti üle.
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Just, ja järgmine talv keeratakse veel 80% juurde, kuigi sellist inimest, kes teaks tuleviku pole, isegi mitte GASPis. Jääb üle vaid küsida, mis point asjal on.
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Täpsustaks, et WYNN tuludest tuli FY07 umbes 50% Macaust, kuid MPEL tegevus on keskendunud täielikult Macaule.
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Resist the Urge to Find Hope in This Market
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/28/2008 7:56 AM EDT
It all depends on how we look at things, and not how they are in themselves.
--Carl Jung
Many investors have done so poorly in the market because they have relied too much on hope. They want to dismiss the current state of things and anticipate positive changes ahead.
The business media actively promotes this approach because it is a bit tiresome to always be preaching caution. Optimism is much more interesting for business journalists, since it tends to produce better ratings than pessimism.
I want to be a realist and the simple reality right now is the market looks extremely poor. The vast majority of charts have broken down, we have no leadership and we lack clarity about the extent of the problems out there.
Despite that, we have a constant chorus of market pundits who keep telling us the bottom is here, the worst is over and its time to put money to work.
But don't lose sight of the fact that the big picture is quite negative while we wrestle with some short term trades. It is going to take some time before we can put capital to work in longer-term positions.
But we'll still have some short-term action to keep us entertained. We just have to make sure that we appreciate the fact that nothing much can be trusted to the upside right now.
In this market, it is hard to resist the temptation to embrace the bottom-calling. It is especially hard when we have a few days of good action. We want to breathe a sigh of relief and start to think that maybe this time the big turn really is here.
That is the natural reaction of most people and it is why bear markets ultimately are so painful. When our hopes are dashed once again, despair blossoms and we just want to forgot about stocks for a while.
The key to dealing with a bear market is to have the right mindset. It won't last forever but it tends to last longer than most people think. If you resist the over-anxious bottom-calling, and are content to be late to a new bull market, when one finally does occur, you will end up far ahead of those who are constantly trying to proclaim the worst is behind us.
The reality right now is this market looks very poor and there are few stocks worth buying. Accept that fact and you are going to outperform most investors.
In the early going we have a bit of a bounce in oil and mixed action overseas. Amgen (AMGN) is helping the biotechnology sector, but there isn't a whole lot of news this morning and we are drifting a bit.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NTWK +10.8%, SOHU +9.9%, CALM +9.7%, KFT +3.6%, SIRI +1.8%... M&A news: ENSI +32.8% (to be acquired by SRE for $61.50 per share), XMSR +7.1% (FCC approves XM-Sirius merger - WSJ)... Select mining stocks showing strength: RTP +3.2%, BHP +3.0%, MT +2.5%... Other news: AMGN +17.4% (announces positive top-line results for denosumab pivotal postmenopausal osteoporosis trial; also upgraded to Buy at Jefferies, upgraded to Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw and upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), IOC +7.5% (to complete Elk-4 appraisal well as gas and condensate producer), FRE +5.8% (Congress passes housing bill - WSJ), SINA +4.7% (up in sympathy with SOHU), CHK +3.5% (CNPC interested in Chesapeake Energy assets, Morning Post says - Bloomberg.com), CVTX +2.2% (announces that FDA continues to review Ranexa applications), FNM +1.7% (Congress passes housing bill - WSJ), RDS.A +1.5%and TOT +1.4% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: BBY +3.2% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), NTAP +2.6% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill), FST +1.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital), ACN +1.1% (upgraded to Buy at Kaufman), CAVM +1.0% (initiated with Buy at Merriman).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SILC -23.5%, RYAAY -12.5 % (light volume), APOG -5.7% (light volume), VZ -1.6%... Select airline names showing weakness following RYAAY results and crude trading higher: DAL -4.0%, AMR -3.8%, NWA -3.1%, CAL -2.4%, UAUA -2.1%... Other news: VNDA -55.7% (announces receipt of Not Approvable letter from FDA for Iloperidone), NOG -8.4% (Investors should heed caution with Northern Oil & Gas - Barron's), IMA -5.2% (announced that it received today a decision from an arbitration tribunal), MTL -4.6% (Russian PM Putin again criticizes miner Mechel saying the co avoided taxes by selling products internationally via foreign subsidiaries, Interfax says - DJ), RBS -4.1% (following weakness in trading overseas), ISRG -2.7% (Intuitive Surgical may be overvalued - Barron's), SHPGY -2.4% (still checking), IBN -2.6% (ICICI Bank, State Bank profits hurt by increased defaults - Bloomberg.com)... Analyst comments: MPEL -3.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), JOBS -3.0% (cut to Sell from Neutral by Goldman Sachs- DJ), CLX -2.6% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), HAS -2.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham), TDY -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), AXL -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Keybanc). -
Euroopa langes ja Aasia põhiindeksid tõusid :
Saksamaa DAX -0.71%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -071%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.04%
Hispaania IBEX 35 0.00%
Venemaa MICEX -0.11%
Poola WIG +0.38%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.14%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.24%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.33%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.32%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.02%
Tai Set 50 +0.06%
India Sensex +0.52%
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Microsoft (MSFT) initiated with a Buy at Collins Stewart; tgt $33
Collins Stewart initiates MSFT with a Buy and price target of $33 saying they look at MSFT as a large Internet company under emergence and a traditional software company getting ready to embrace Cloud Computing/SaaS. The firm says Internet and Cloud Computing are bringing a paradigm shift to the world of computing in terms of how the technology products are developed, distributed and consumed.
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MTL on täna ka juba 8-9 usd miinuses.Oleks sellised võimalused olnud 8-9 aastat tagasi,poleks suuri kaotusi omand.
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Long small Mechel (MTL) 18 dollari kandist.
VIP-il olid sarnased probleemid paari aasta eest ja said lahenduse. TNK vist oli ka.
Lukoil oli ainuke, kes sa kõvasti põske.
Eks see üks tulega mängimine ole. Reedel sai inv. portfelli seda 26 juurest võetut. Aga see on selline pikema persp. view. -
Kukkuva noa püüdmine nõuab küll eriti head närvi või päris korralikku portfelli tootlust seni,et riskida.Odavam oleks minu arvates mingi oktoobri või jaanuari calli ostmine,vähemalt kahjum on piiratud ,kuid võidu võimalused päris suured.
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Panen siia veel ka tänase hinnasihi tõstmise ja positiivse kommentaari Disney'le Carise poolt. Ettevõttel siis kolmapäeval peale turu sulgemist tulemused.
Caris raises their tgt on DIS to $37.50 from $32.50. Firm notes DIS will release its FQ3 financial results after the close on July 30. At this juncture, firm is comfortable with their formal ests of $9.17 bln in revs, $2.30 bln in segment EBIT and core EPS of $0.63, now $0.02 ahead of the Street. Street consensus on the rev line currently stands at $9.10 bln. Firm looks for solid results out of Media Networks. Firm notes all eyes will be on domestic park pacings.
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Enek, võtad juurde?
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Huvitav milliseid tulemusi investorid SOHU-lt siis ootasid, aktsia kergelt miinuses (kuigi väga volatiivne ja suure käibega).ilmselt suured müüvad. endal virtuaalis(kellelgi LHV kliendil see samuti) õigel ajal sebitud augusti call strikiga 80 ja hetkel +80%.
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kas FEDil on oma inflatsiooni target?
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FEDi target on "below headlines" :)
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Üks nutikas treider kirjutas SOHU tulemuste kohta nii: Was on the conference call and did not here anything overly negative but one did get the feel that analysts are skeptical about the co's business after the Olympics.
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Seda küll jah, aga ega see raha siis "õhku" ei haithu mis olympia abil saadi.
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momentum, mitteametlik target ikka on. Ja peaks olema siis 1.5% kuni 2% ca kolme aasta lõikes. Üks lõiguke siia juurde lingina.
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Mishkin praegu huvitava retoorikaga väljas. Infot neutraliseerib oluliselt asjaolu, et see on Mishkini viimane avalik kõne enne plikoolitööle tagasipöördumist :(
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Et siis selline tore plaan USAl - koostada eelarveid ülejäägiga alates aastast 2012. Olgem ausad, see eeldaks, et üheski suuremas agressioonis/kriisikoldes USA järgneva nelja aasta jooksul enam osa ei võtaks. Ülejäägiga eelarved on aga pea $9 triljonilise riigivõla all ägava riigi jaoks hädavajalik, et oma tugevat positsiooni maailmas taas paremini kinnistada.
White House cuts fiscal 2008 U.S. budget deficit forecast to $389 bln from $410 bln
White House sees fiscal 2009 deficit $482 bln (previous $407 bln), FY 2010 $178 bln (pvs $160 bln). Sees FY08 deficit at 2.7 pct of GDP (pvs 2.9 pct), '09 3.3 pct (pvs 2.7 pct). Sees budget reaching surplus of $58 bln in fiscal 2012. -
kas keegi veel vilkuva ekraani taga istub?
ma olen chatis -
Merrill Lynch täna -11%. Kas ka MERi investoreid painavad tõsised likviidsuskahtlused?
