Börsipäev 5. august - Fedi päev
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Energiasektor jätkab oma nõrkust. Mitmed sektori ettevõtted on väga tugeva müügisurve alla sattunud ning tehakse viimase aja uusi põhju - XOM, CHK, XTO jne. Musta kulla barreli hinna lahtris vilgub punasel taustal number $119.9. Langevad energiahinnad annavad Föderaalreservile võimaluse teatud kergendusega tänasel intressimäära kohtumisel hingata, toetavad aktsiaturgu tervikuna ning tarbijaid nii Ameerikas, Euroopas kui ka Eestis. Tanklates on kindlasti ees ootamas hinnalangused.
USAs on allapoole liikumine juba alguse saanud. Väike graafik ka siia juurde:
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Citi alandas eile pärast turgu Fortress Investment Group’i (FIG) reitingu Sell peale hinnasihiga $9:
We see cracks in the Fortress...While we view Fortress as a firm that can benefit during times of distress, the reality is that the firm does not have a track record spanning multiple cycles.
Kuigi Fortress ei avalda oma fondide tootlust igakuiselt, siis Citi kalkulatsioonidele tuginedes on olukord märgatavalt halvenenud. See aga tähendab firmale väiksemaid edukustasusid ja ühtlasi madalamat kasumit. Uued kasumprognoosid – EPS 08/09/10 vastavalt $0.50, €0.95 ja $1.35 – jäävad konsensusele alla 15-30% võrra.
Viimase kolme kvartali jooksul makstud dividend on ületanud kasumit 1.5 korda, mis ei ole jätkusuutlik. Seda enam, et Fortress hiljuti suurendas oma võlakoormust 50% ehk $265 mln võrra.
Citi ettevaatlik lähenemine alternatiivsete varahaldusfirmade suhtes (private equity, hedge funds) ühtib ka eelmise aasta lõpus Pro all kirjutatud negatiivse nägemusega konkurendi Och-Ziff Capital Management (OZM) suhtes.
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Ei tahaks tänast pidu Euroopas ära rikkuda. Siiski päris huvitav makroinf Reutersilt:
London August 5. A German paper, Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported a leaked figure for the Q2 German GDP which according to a source fell by a sharp 1.0% qoq in Q2. In Q1 the German economy grew more strongly than expected at 1.5% qoq due to a mild winter that supported activity in the construction sector. After that performance a correction was largely expected in Q2. However, the leaked figure is quite weak still and it does mean that the average quarterly growth for Germany in the first part of this year will be somewhere around 0.25% qoq.
Further, considering the German economy makes up for a large chunk of the euro area economy if this figure is true it will likely drag euro zone growth into negative territory for Q2. Meanwhile, the German government on Monday, reiterated it expects the economy to grow by 1.7% this year and by 1.2% in 2009. The official figures are due to be released by the statistical office on August 14 at 06:00 GMT.
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Euroopa jaemüük on samuti kokku kuivamas. Juunis on jamüük vähenenud 0.6% võrreldes maiga. See annab märku, et tarbimine ei aita ilmselt üldse eurotsooni teise kvartali SKP kasvule kaasa.
Sel kuul vähenes eelkõige non-food tarbimine (-0.6%). Toiduainete müük vähenes 0.4%, kuid aastaga on toidu-, jookide- & tubakamüük langenud -4.4%.
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Täna siis kell 21.15 kuuleme USA Föderaalreservi intressimäära otsusest. Konsensus on selgelt intressimäärade samaks jätmise poolt. Seetõttu otsitakse tuleviku sõnastusest just vihjeid, kas selle aasta jooksul hakatakse juba ka määrade kergitamist ette võtma või mitte.
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Euroopa roheline ja Aasia punane:
Saksamaa DAX +2.29%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.66%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.78%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.92%
Venemaa MICEX -3.08%
Poola WIG +1.30%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.14%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.51%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.85%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -4.17%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.40%
Tai Set 50 -1.27%
India Sensex +2.63%
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Don't Be Fooled By Today's Action
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/4/2008 4:18 PM EDT
What a mess of a market today. We have some pockets of absolute carnage in oil, gas, steel and various commodity-related and cyclical industries, but the DJIA managed only minor losses. With oil down, we had a few brave folks willing to buy retailers, and there was some money looking for safety in pharmaceuticals, but the selling elsewhere looked like something you expect to see only with the DJIA down 300-400 points or more.
My major complaint about the market for a while now has been that there is no upside leadership. Yes, we have a few medical and biotechnology stocks doing well and some "defensive" type plays showing relative strength, but otherwise there is absolutely nothing out there showing signs that it can lead us onward and upward. A few of the perma-bulls are hoping that maybe financials would keep on going after a huge oversold bounce, but that seems quite questionable, if not downright naive, given the growing view that there are many more shoes to drop in the sector.
It was a much worse day out there today than indicated by the major market indices. Many major stocks in the oil and commodity-related sectors had absolutely no support and were down 10% or more. There were some pockets of real fear out there and, unfortunately, that has a tendency to spread rather than drive buyers to buy other sectors.
It's a mess out there right now, and there is no reason to believe that it is going to quickly improve. Stay defensive and be patient. Better days will come, but it's going to take some time.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: COMS +16.7%, UFPT +16.0%, ACTS +9.9%, AIMC +8.8%, AFAM +8.6%, RRI +7.5%, MASI +7.4%, SVR +6.7%, CSR +6.2%, ACTU +5.8% (light volume), SYKE +5.7%, ATSI +5.3% (light volume), LF +5.3%, COV +5.2%, QGEN +4.9%, GMXR +3.2%, WEL +2.9% (light volume), CUTR +2.4%, PLLL +2.3%, ERES +1.3%, CEDC +1.1%... Select airline/cruise-related names trading higher with continued pullback in crude: RYAAY +9.4%, NWA +5.9%, LCC +5.6%, AAI +5.6%, DAL +5.4%, JBLU +4.6%, UAUA +4.1%, CCL +4.0%, AMR +3.7%, RCL +2.4%... Select mortgage/finanical names showing strength: SCA +17.4%, IBN +9.9% (trading higher following strength in India trading), MBI +9.2%, ABK +7.2%, BCS +5.0% (Swiss Re buys Barclays life arm for $1.5 bln - Reuters), WM +4.5%, LEH +4.1% (Lehman Brothers may sell entire investment management unit, CNBC says - Bloomberg.com), LYG +3.6%, UBS +3.5%, DB +2.8% (upgraded to Outperform at Keefe Bruyette), WB +2.4%, MER +1.9%, ING +1.9%, BAC +1.2%, HBC +1.0% (WSJ reports HBC ROIC fell to 12% in the first half from 18.4% in the same period last year and is under pressure)... Other news: ELN +7.1% (still checking), ERII +6.4% (announces United Arab Emirates desalination energy recovery contract), SIRI +4.3% (CEO buys 2 mln shares at $1.37 on 8/4), HOKU +4.0% (Prudential Locations selects Hoku Solar to install PV on Prudential Locations' Oahu Headquarters), GSK +2.1% (still checking)... Analyst comments: IFX +6.0% (initiated with Buy at Deutsche Bank), AIG +4.9% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), CREE +3.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Morgan Keegan), AZN +1.5% (upgraded to Neutral at Merrill), AAPL +1.3% (initiated with Buy at UBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RACK -20.3% (also downgraded to Neutral at Merriman), GLBL -16.8% (light volume), OTTR -15.9%, HNT -14.3%, XING -13.5%, MSTR -11.8% (also downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), AMSC -11.3%, HMA -10.9%, HIMX -9.6% (also downgraded to Sell at Merrill), JRCC -8.2%, CVLT -4.6%, HVT -4.5%, APC -4.2%, IBI -3.7% (also downgraded to Neutral at Baird), MVL -3.6%, DCT -2.8% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan), GLBC -2.7%, MWY -1.8% (light volume)... Select energy related names trading lower with continued pullback in crude: STO -3.3%, CHK -2.8%, HK -2.7%, MEE -2.6%, BP -1.7%, TOT -1.5%, RDS.A -1.3%... Other news: VVUS -3.4% (announces $65 mln registered direct offering of common stock at $7.77/share), SYT -2.9% (traded lower overseas on commodity weakness), BCSI -1.5% (files for 2,119,460 share common stock shelf offering by the selling stockholders)... Analyst comments: LSI -4.1% (downgraded to Underweight at Lehman), WERN -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), JNS -1.8% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan). -
Mis seal Euroopas siis nüüd NIIII positiivset on?
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ISM Services indeks oodatust parem 49.5 punkti vs oodatud 48.8
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Väike Briefingu arvamus siia tänasest 21.15 avalikustatavast Fedi sõnumist:
The Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be held today with a decision due out at about 14:15ET. The surprise factor ahead of the meeting is high. As of this posting, the fed funds futures market shows an implied probability of 93% that the FOMC will hold the fed funds rate steady at 2.00%. Accordingly, a decision to move the fed funds rate up, or down, would be a huge surprise that would prompt an outsized response. The market's handicapping of this FOMC meeting, however, is correct in our estimation. With inflation pressures evident but the economy and financial markets still unsettled, the FOMC isn't going to make a move at this juncture. The expected inaction doesn't mean the market won't be interested in the meeting's outcome. On the contrary, interest will be as high as ever because of the uncertainty surrounding the wording of the policy directive... -
Nafta on tagasi võtmas päevasisest kaotust ning jõudnud -0.46% $120.85 barrel tasemele peale seda kui EU sai kirja Iraanilt.
EU Official confirms receipt of Iranian letter; Iranian letter to be discussed by 6-power group on Nuclear
It had been reported earlier today that a letter from Iran to the six powers was handed over on Tuesday, regarding its nuclear activity. -
5 minuti pärast siis FOMCi otsus...
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FOMC leaves Fed Funds rate unchanged at 2.00%, as expected
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Data jälle enne väljas:
FOMC leaves Fed Funds rate unchanged at 2.00%, as expected -
Hehe...2 minutit tavapärasest varem. Sellepärast ongi alati aja ees alati sõna 'approximately at 14.15'
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Fed says labor markets softened further, financial markets remain 'under considerable stress'
Fed says will act as needed to promote growth, stable prices
Fed says tight credit, housing contraction, elevated energy prices to weigh on growth
Fed says inflation to moderate, outlook 'highly uncertain'
Fed says inflation risks are 'significant concern'
Fed says downside risks to growth remain -
approximately on tuesday
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päev on vähemasti õige ju Madis ;D
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Väike päevasisene võistlus. :P Leia statementi kõige kõnekam asjaolu.
Release Date: August 5, 2008
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.
Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth.
Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities, and some indicators of inflation expectations have been elevated. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain.
Although downside risks to growth remain, the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred an increase in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
2008 Monetary Policy Releases -
momentum - minu jaoks on sisukas see : )
'Although downside risks to growth remain, the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee.'
Ehk et siis ollakse ikkagi valmis intresse tõstma (eventually). Aga kui me siin mingit spike'i energias, toiduainetes, materjalides ei näe, siis enne novembrikuu presidendivalimisi veel mitte. -
Kuid... see oleks ju tähendanud intressifutuuride põhjal tulevaste intressitõstmiste tõenöosuse suurenemist. Seekord aga tõenäosus vähenes. Statement on dovish. Mingi info andis selleks aluse. Mul on oma idee.
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Cisco (CSCO) tulemused täitsa kenad ja aktsia viskav järelturul veel 3% lisa tänasele liikumisele.
Reports Q4 (Jul) earnings of $0.40 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.39; revenues rose 9.9% year/year to $10.36 bln vs the $10.31 bln consensus. "Cisco delivered solid quarterly and annual results as network-enabled business process changes and productivity increases gain traction on a global basis. Today's strong results demonstrate the company's ability to execute. The market is clearly in transition, and we will use this time as an opportunity to expand our share of customer spend and to aggressively move into market adjacencies. Our focus is on our portfolio approach to technology innovation, a broad global footprint, and management dedicated to sustainable differentiation and execution. We believe we are entering the next phase of the Internet as growth and productivity will center on collaboration enabled by networked Web 2.0 technologies." -
Release Date: August 5, 2008
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.
Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth.
Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities, and some indicators of inflation expectations have been elevated. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain.
Although downside risks to growth remain, the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred an increase in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
2008 Monetary Policy Releases
Otsuse kohal hõljus paras event-risk lausa kolmehäälsest erimeelsusest (mis on haruldus mida pole nähtud alates 1992 aastast saati).
* Plosser - juba tuttav hawk. Ka varem vastu hääletanud.
* Fisher - juba tuttav hawk. Ka varem vastu hääletanud.
# Gary Stern - hiljuti teinud paraja retoorikanihke ja väljedanud teravamalt muret inflatsiooni üle. Oli piisavalt alust arvata, et Stern võib seekord vastu hääletada näidates sellega FEDi vabaturukomitee äärmiselt suurt ebakindlust inflatsiooniväljavaate osas. Valik hiljutisi headline:
Credit crunch in the US likely to last 'many months' - 28 jul. Eriti hea: "Headline inflation is rapid, too rapid,"
Fed's Stern: Inflation a concern, growth headwinds rising - 28 jul
Fed's Stern says don't wait to raise interest rates - 20 jul
TREASURIES-Bonds hit lows after Fed Stern's rate comments - 18 jul
Fed's Stern supports early rate hikes: Bloomberg - 18 jul
# Elizabeth Duke - äärmiselt väike risk, et oleks vastu häletanud. Kuid täna esimest korda hääletamas, vahetab välja hr Mishkini kes läheb tagasi tööle ülikooli.
