LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 6. august

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • BNP Paribas SA (PAR) ehk Prantsusmaa suurim kommertspank tuli välja teise kvartali majandustulemustega. Brutokasum vähenes 34%. BNP Paribase tegevdirektor Baudouin Prot ütles, et 542 miljoni euro väärtuses tehti mahakirjutamisi. Netokasum langes 1.51 miljardile eurole, mis on ligilähedane analüütikute prognoosidele.

  • Kahjuks on see suvekuu juba möödas. Tean mida tunned Kristjan, ka mina soovin et suvi oleks pikem :).

    Nüüd juba august.
  • Commerzbank AB (CBK) teatas 6.4-protsendilisest brutokasumi kasvust, kuna maksualandused ja laenutulud kompenseerisid võlgadega seotud mahakirjutamised. Netokasum kasvas 817 miljonile eurole võrreldes eelmise aasta 768 miljoni euroga. Majandustulemused olid üle ootuste head, mistõttu võib tänasel börsipäeval oodata aktsiahinna kerkimist. Neto intressitulud, mis on panga peamine kasumiallikas, tõusid 17% ehk 1.18 miljardile eurole. 
  • Eilse börsipäeva esimeses postituses kirjutasin, et Eesti tanklates on ees ootamas hinnalangus. Ei pidanudki kaua ootama - tore näha, et meie foorumit tõsiselt võetakse.

  • Ärge nüüd mind kohe idioodiks tituleerige, aga börsiinfo veidi teistsuguses keeles. :)

    Garbage Lyrics

    Artist: Garbage
    Album: Version 2.0
    Song: Temptation Waits

    I'll tell you something
    I am a wolf but
    I like to wear sheep's clothing
    I am a bonfire
    I am a vampire
    I'm waiting for my moment
    Chorus:
    You come on like a drug
    I just can't get enough
    I'm like an addict coming at you for a little more
    And there's so much at stake
    I can't afford to waste
    I never needed anybody like this before
    I'll tell you something
    I am a demon
    Some say my biggest weakness
    I have my reasons
    Call it my defense
    Be careful what you're wishing
    Chorus
    You are a secret
    A new possession
    I like to keep you guessing
    Chorus
    When I'm not sure what I'm living for
    (When I'm not sure who I am)
    When I'm not sure what I'm looking for
    (When I'm not sure who I am)
    When I'm not sure what I'm living for
    (When I'm not sure who I am)
    When I'm not sure what I'm looking for
    (When I'm not sure who I am)
    When I'm not sure what I'm living for
    When I'm not sure what I'm looking for
    When I'm not sure what I'm living for
  • Nafta hinnale avaldab täna kindlasti mõju kell 17.35 avaldatav energia raport. Viimasel nädalal nähti ootamatult mootorkütuse varude vähenemist ja see tõi kaasa suure hüppe toornafta hinnas. Tasub ka seekord mootorkütuse nõudluse muutust ja varude tasemeid silmas pidada.
  • UBS'i analüütiku Bellini arvates võib Microsoft (MSFT) lähiajal teatada massiivsest $20 miljardi suurusest aktsiate tagasiostuprogrammist. Nüüd, mil tarkvaragigant on taganenud Yahoo! (YHOO) ülevõtmisest, on ettevõttel üle palju vaba raha, mida oleks soodne kasutada madalatel tasemetel olevate aktsiate tagasiostuks. Eelmisel kuul toimunul analüütikute kohtumisel märkis Microsofti CFO, et aktsia hind on langenud "frustreerivalt madalale" ja aktsiate tagasiost oleks "mõistlikum kui kunagi varem".

    Bellini määras Microsofti hinnasihiks $40, mis pakuks väga kõrget tootlust niivõrd suure firma kohta. Seega päris agressiivse sõnastusega kommentaar täna UBSi poolt. Link Bloombergi artiklile on siin. 

  • Täna peale turgu avaldab majandustulemused STV. Oman call optsiooni, võimalik, et ostan tänase päeva jooksul ka aktsiaid. Konsensuse ootus on minu arvates liiga madal.
  • Saksamaa DAX -0.09%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.64%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.08%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.51%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.80%

    Poola WIG -1.18%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.63%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng N/A (börs suletud)

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.07%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.23%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.28%

    Tai Set 50 +1.85%

    India Sensex +0.75%

  • Will Hope Lead to Pain Once Again?
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    8/6/2008 8:36 AM EDT

    A leader is a dealer in hope.
    -- Napoleon Bonaparte

    There is an old saying that in a bear market we slide down a slope of hope. It is those big spikes of hope that the worst is over that inevitably lead to the next wave of selling.

    The psychology of a bear market is a cycle of hope and disappointment, with each new disappointment creating more despair and pessimism, until eventually we reach the point where all hope is finally wrung out of the market and we can bottom. The process can take quite a long time to play out, and what makes it so difficult to deal with is the many false bottoms that occur. Market players are always anxious to believe that their nightmare has finally ended and things will once again to uptrend.

    Yesterday we had a very classic spike of hope. Lower crude oil prices and an inactive Fed supported it, but that rationale seems a bit strained given the overall economic environment. Nonetheless, market players want to hope that we can at least get a rally, and they made it a self-fulfilling prophecy to some extent.

    At some point, "hope" will prove to be the correct investment approach. It might even be this time. The technical conditions are better, and we have some indications we can work higher from here, but the macroeconomic environment and seasonality favor the bears.

    After the big point move yesterday, the bulls have the advantage and can prove that they are something more than naïve optimists by putting up more money to support this market. If profit-taking kicks in quickly instead, and dip-buyers show little interest, we will know that this is yet another slippery slope of hope that will cost us if we are too trusting.

    We have a mixed start to kick off the morning. Freddie Mac (FRE) earnings were poor, but Cisco (CSCO) is getting a boost on slightly better-than-expected numbers and reduced estimates.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MWA +14.8%, GGC +11.8%, MDRX +11.3%, KNDL +9.6%, FTK +9.5% (light volume), AMKR +9.4%, HDSN +9.1%, BIDZ +8.8%, TKLC +7.8%, OPWV +7.7%, HLS +6.9%, ONNN +6.0%, CSCO +5.6% (also assumed with an Equal Weight at Lehman, down from prior Overweight rating), ABK +4.9%, ACAS +4.7% (light volume), RL +4.1%, HLF +3.2%, FWLT +2.8%, WBMD +2.7% (also upgraded to Source of Funds at ThinkPanmure), USU +2.6% (light volume), PZZA +1.4% (light volume)... Select metals/mining names showing strength: RTP +4.6%, AAUK +4.6%, BBL +3.7%, BHP +3.5%, LMC +3.5%, PAL +2.4%, GG +2.3%, GFI +1.9%... Other news: ILE +303.4% (reports positive top-line results from pivotal phase III studies of Isolagen Therapy in wrinkles; studies meet all primary efficacy endpoints and are statistically significant), VRNM +48.5% (Verenium and BP announce partnership to accelerate the commercialization of cellulosic ethanol; also upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), SCA +39.3% (XL Capital announces closing of previously announced transactions with Security Capital Assurance Ltd and capital raise), DVAX +14.9% (Dynavax Technologies and Merck announce Phase 3 Trial with Investigational Hepatitis B vaccine Heplisav met its primary endpoint), IOC +9.1% (advises that testing has shown an excellent gas flow at the Elk-4 discovery well), HOKU +7.6% (HOKU Scientific and Tianwei sign $284 mln Polysilicon supply contract), S +2.3% (announces proposed private placement of $3 bln of cumulative perpetual convertible preferred stock), BP +1.3% (still checking)... Analyst comments: LLNW +7.7% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), FCX +3.5% (added to Top Picks Live List at Citigroup), SLW +2.7% (upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James), HMA +2.2% (upgraded to Outperform at Leerink Swann).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: INAP -26.9% (also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), ABCO -25.3% (also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), MFLX -21.4%, KMX -19.4%, WFMI -18.8% (also downgraded to Source of Funds at ThinkPanmure), PCLN -17.6%, KOG -16.5%, EAC -16.2%, MVIS -13.9%, SNCR -10.9%, BMRN -10.0%, AKNS -8.7%, S -7.6% (also announces a 3 mln share cumulative perpetual convertible preferred stock private placement offering), HSP -6.9%, FRE -6.7%, QSFT -6.3%, SMSI -5.4%, ALSK -4.9% (light volume), PACR -4.9% (also downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), MOLX -3.3%, LTRE -2.3% (light volume), DRRX -2.2% (light volume), WMS -2.2%, MSCS -2.0%, SKYW -1.6%, AREX -1.3% (light volume), JCOM -1.2%, MCHX -1.0% (also downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at ThinkPanmure)... Select mortgage/financial stocks trading lower: FNM -7.8% (down in sympathy with FRE), LYG -5.6% (trading ex-dividend), LEH -4.2%, IBN -3.7%, WM -2.9%, BCS -2.8%, WB -2.4%, WFC -1.9%, C -1.6% (talks with regulators may bring billions in auction-rate-securities buybacks - WSJ), MER -1.6%, HBC -1.6%, JPM -1.4%... Other news: HCP -7.4% (announces a 13 mln share common stock secondary offering), MEE -5.9% (files for mixed securities shelf offering), SHPGY -3.4%, SI -1.8% (still checking), EXPE -1.1% (trading down in sympathy with PCLN)... Analyst comments: NVS -3.4% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), BIG -2.7% (downgraded to Hold at Soleil), VRTX -2.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna), AIG -1.6% (initiated with Sell at Societe Generale - Bloomberg), SONC -1.1% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill).
  • Credit Suisse hoiatab finantssektori viimase aja ralli eest

    Briefing: Credit Suisse believes the bank stock rally appears overdone. The firm retains their cautious stance, largely due to the capital overhang, particularly given their expectations for more protracted economic weakness and associated real estate value declines. In addition, they believe the potential for more meaningful deterioration in both traditional commercial as well as commercial real estate is not priced into the stocks. They remain most cautious on: BAC, RF, CYN, and ZION among large/mid caps while they continue to avoid most small cap regionals. 

  • STV Q1 diluted EPS oli $0.19. Nii bookvalue kui ka cash per share on mõlemad ca 4.5 dollait. Seega firma operatsioonid maksavad eilse sulgemishinna põhjal ca 6.85 dollarit aktsia kohta. Veel infoks, et gross margin on ülisuur, küündides seni üle 80%-di. Aasta peale võiks arvestada vähemalt dollar kasumit aktsia kohta. Seega P/E ilmselt alla 7. Kasvukiirust tõestab juba firma nimi, tegemist on digitelevisiooniga seotud firmaga, mis asub Hiinas.
  • 17.35 siis energia raport ja kõige kiiremini saab sellele ligi siit. 

  • Mixed data energia raportist.

    Nafta varud suurenesid +1.7 miljonit barrelit vs oodatud –0.2 miljonit barrelit vähenemist
    Mootorkütuse varud vähenesid –4.4 miljonit barrelit vs oodatud –1.5 miljonit barrelit vähenemist.
    Distillaatide varud suurenesid +2.8 miljonit barrelit vs oodatud +2.0 miljonit barrelit suurenemist.
  • Joel, lihtsam oleks öelda - nafta varud SUURENESID +1,7M vs oodatud –0.2 miljonit barrelit vähenemist :)
  • Nafta hind jätkab pudenemist - vägisi on selline tunne, et mõni suurem fond on oma positsioone agressiivselt likvideerimas. hetkel siis $117.7 barrelist.
  • Mina kui filoloogi võsuke ei saa üldse aru, miks on vaja öelda, et asi suurenes või vähenes ja siis näidata märgiga muutuse suunda. Pleonastlik kordus või nii. Lisaks, kui miski väheneb negatiivse arvu võrra, siis matemaatika ütleb, et ta hoopis suureneb.
  • Tehnoloogiasektor selgelt veab turgu tõusule ning nafta langusest (hetkel -0.65% $118.40 barrel tasemel) on hoo sisse saanud ka Dow komponendid. Ankruks eile kõva tõusu läbi teinud finantssektor, kus tänaseks neg. üllatajaks FRE, kuid siingi hommikused kõvad miinused juba mitmete ettevõtete pootl seljataha jäetud: C +0.75% $20.07 tasemel.
  • Nafta viimaste minutitega pea 0 tagasi jõudnud.
  • Finantssektor on viimase 10 minutiga korralikult alla tagasi müüdud, kus vähesteks + poolel püsijateks hetkel veel WM ja BK.
  • Valgustaks siis neid lugejaid, kes ei tea veel, mis toimus Ühendriikide finantssektoris. Freddie Mac (FRE) avalikustas teise kvartali majandustulemused:

    Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $1.63 per share, may not be comparable to the First Call consensus of ($0.41). Provision for credit losses of $2.5 billion, compared to $1.2 billion for the first quarter of 2008; Security impairments on the company's available-for-sale securities were approximately $1.0 billion for the second quarter; Net interest income of $1.5 billion, up from $798 million in the first quarter of 2008. Company reaffirms its commitment to raise capital and announces its current expectation, subject to approval by the Board of Directors, to reduce the dividend on its common stock in the third quarter from $0.25 to $0.05 or less per share and to pay the full dividends at contractual rates on its preferred stock. Estimated regulatory core capital was $37.1 billion at June 30, 2008, an estimated $8.4 billion in excess of the company's statutory minimum capital requirement, and $2.7 billion above the 20 percent mandatory target capital surplus.

    Allikas: Google Finance

  • finants ei liigu enam turu tippudega kaasa
  • oskab keegi seletada? eile soetatud bbi hinnaga 2,92 ja täna oli üleval 3,09. õhtul vaadates kõik müüdud hinnaga 3,19???
    Hind keris üles viimasel minutil, ja nii järsult, et sai 10 senti lausa rohkem. kas võib olla tegemist, et mingi fond krahmas viimasel minutil enne tulemusi mingi portsu või mis? Vaadake bbi graafiku tänast päeva...
  • viru1000, ilmselt pigistati lihtsalt lühikesi enne tänaseid tulemusi. Viimaste andmete järgi on BBI's short interest 47%.
  • order oli 3,09 peal üleval alates päeva algusest. Kas ei oleks see pidanus siis päeva lõpus sama hinnaga müüdud saama? Sai aga hinnaga 3,19. Seal oli tõenäoliselt mingi kala vahel... tegemist ka Hansapanga kauplemiskontoga.

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