Börsipäev 8. august
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Miku poolt eilses börsipäevas kirjutatud (C)-l on kohtulahendi tõttu kohustus tagasi osta suures ulatuses ARS-e (Auction Rate Securities), mis pani ka (MER) teatama ARS-ide tagasiostust vahemikul 15.01.2009-15.01.2010. Arvatavasti teeb sama ka kohtupingil istuv (BAC) ja ka teised suuremad pangad. Tulemas on ka (FNM) tulemused enne turge, kus ootused juba suht madalad peale (FRE) fiaskot ja kindlustajatest raporterimas veel (MBI), mille positiivsete tulemuste najal võiks ka kindlustajad peale eilset (AIG) krahhi toetust leida.
(MER) poolt veel lisatud: The auction rate securities that are owned by Merrill Lynch's clients are predominantly rated AAA and are not credit-impaired. Merrill Lynch does not expect its redemption of auction rate securities in 2009 through 2010 to have a materially adverse impact on its capital ratios, liquidity, or consolidated financial performance. -
tänagi jätkub hoogsalt USD tugevnemine/EUR nõrgenemine, USD juba 4 kuu tippudel, nii jääb ka Euroopa aktsiaturgudel valdav osa eilsest USA turu langusest kajastumata, mõned turud on kauplemas peaaegu nullis eilsega võrreldes
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Soome turult on Outotec (OTE1V) jällegi väga atraktiivsele tasemele langenud. Tegemist väga volatiilse, kuid hea likviidsusega aktsiaga, mis sobib ka lühiajalisteks treidideks. Hetkel kauplemas -0.66% languses 29.91 eur tasemel, kuid soome turg paistab hetkel üpriski tugev olevat, kus kergest langusest on juba + rebitud.
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Prantsuse naftafirma Total (TOT) on müümas oma kondoomi- ja kummikindaüksust, et keskenduda põhitegevusele:
Total SA, Europe's third-largest oil company, may put its glove and condom-making unit up for sale to exit businesses that aren't related to energy, three people familiar with the matter said. Link.
:)
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Netimängurlusele peamiselt Euroopas tarkvara pakkuv Cryptologic (CRYP) tuli täna oma kvartalitulemustega ning esmapilgul on numbrid nutused – ootustele jäädakse tublisti alla nii müügitulu kui ka kasumireal. Samas, aktsia hind on ka enne tulemusi sedavõrd palju kukkunud, et sellise puudujäägi raporteerimine võrreldes ootustega oli ka tõenäoline. Seda enam, et 31. juulil andis ettevõte ju kasumihoiatuse, öeldes, et 2. kvartalis teenitakse oma tegevusest kahjumit. Üheks põhjuseks oli Euroopa Jalgpalli Meistrivõistluste väga suur populaarsus, mis vähendas kasiino ja pokkerilehekülgedel külastavate inimeste arvu.Cryptologic’ule on ettevõtte peakorteri Põhja-Ameerikast Iirimaale ümberkolimine ja tegevjuhi vahetus mõjunud üpriski valuliselt. Samas, tundub, et asjad võivad nüüd lõpuks ikkagi paremuse poole pöörduma hakata. Kvartalis lisati 5 uut klienti - 888.com, 0Poker.com, Betjacks, Maharajah Club ja Khel Galli.com. Huvitav on just Khel Galli.com, mis hakkab CRYPile tulusid tooma kiiresti kasvavalt India mängurlusturult.
Klientide lisamisega tegeletakse väga aktiivselt ning just nobe tegutsemine selles vallas võimaldab CRYPil taastada oma endised suured kasvutempod. Ettevõtte $10.6lisest aktsia hinnast moodustab täna ca $4.6 raha ning juhtkonna positiivne nägemus 2008. aasta teise poole ja 2009. aasta terviku osas koos uute klientide lisamisega ning aktsia valuatsioonikordajatega langemisega on ka seda aktsiat lõpuks GIGMi ja PTEC.Li kõrval huvitavaks muutmas.
Kes ei tea, siis CRYPi näol on tegu Playtechi (PTEC.L) ja Gigamedia (GIGM) konkurendiga.
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Panen siia veel nafta hinna 1-kuu graafiku. Verelaskmine on tugevneva dollari taustal jätkunud ka täna.
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FNM Board of Directors announced that the company is decreasing the dividend on common stock to $0.05.
FNM reports Q2 EPS of ($2.54) vs ($0.69) consensus.
Oodatust suurem kahjum ja dividendide vähendamine on viinud Fannie Mae (FNM) aktsia eelturul 7%-lisse langusesse. -
MBI ka väljas
MBIA Inc reports Q2 (Jun) results; has authorized resumption of buyback (8.28 ) : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.96 per share, ex items, may not be comparable to the First Call consensus of ($1.37).
Eelturul siiski +9% -
Indeksfutuurid on (FNM) tulemuste raporteerimise järgselt eelneva edu käest andnud ja punasesse langenud, ainukesena püsib tõusus veel Nasdaqi indeksfutuur. Naftafutuurid on tagasi $118 peale roninud, kuid on siiski veel -1.5% languses. MBI +10% on hetkel jäel ainult +0.85% ning ABK juba -1.31%, kes samuti lendas +14% MBI tulemuste peale.
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Venemaa ja Gruusia vaheline konflikt on laastavat mõju avaldamas Vene börsile. RTS indeks on täna 4.5% võrra miinuses:
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EUR/USD kukub ka läbi 1.51 taseme ja teeb väikse spike`i alla kui taas kord stopid käiku lähevad, kuna täna on juba 1.53 ja 1.52 tase murtud, siis seekord on liikumine siiski tagasihoidlikum
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kui hakatakse tapma, siis enam armu ei anta
on värdjalik liikumine raisk! -
Bulls: Show Me Some Proof This Time
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/8/2008 8:12 AM EDT
The quality of expectations determines the quality of our action.
-- Andre Godin
The recent market bounce and the spate of bottom calls was predicated on two things: hope that banks and brokers have priced in the worst and hope that oil has topped out and will continue to trend lower. The bulls' thinking is that if those two conditions are met, then the market can deal with slowing growth, inflationary pressures and continued softness in the housing market.
The bears tell us the optimism just isn't warranted. Banks still have many problems and are going to continue to take more write-offs as events unfold. For example, the huge charges they are now taking for the auction-rate bonds mess has not been anticipated, and there is more to come.
The bears also argue that while declining oil prices are helpful, they are a marginal issue that will not bail out consumers who have too much debt and are lacking confidence. Job losses are accelerating, and the housing mess is still unwinding. Lower oil is a boost, but it's not a cure for more deeply rooted issues.
Within a bear market, there is always premature optimism, and that is what keeps them going. It is human nature to be hopeful and to try to anticipate when the problems will subside, but as investors, we have to focus on protecting our capital rather then gambling on hope that maybe the optimists have it right this time.
While we have had some slight technical improvement in the major indices over the past couple of weeks, bolstering the bull case, it is not of a sufficient degree to suggest a major trend change has taken place. In fact, it is a pretty typical bear-market bounce, where a flurry of hope stirs up a few folks who are absolutely, positively sure that this time it really is the bottom they have already called three times previously.
While the major indices have better technical action, the trading under the surface is much more problematic. Much of the recent bounce was produced by a big rally in financials that now looks to be waning. Outside of that, we've had some leadership in medical and biotechnology stocks, and investors have shown some interest in defensive growth names such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and McDonald's (MCD) . but there is little if any big and bold market leadership. And rallies we do have are very choppy, with different groups providing the strength on different days.
For the reasons above, my confidence level in this market is quite low. I'm far more concerned about the potential downside than I am worried about missing out on a further rally. Making money in the market is more a function of moving decisively when conditions are in your favor, rather than predicting how conditions will change. I see little to indicate that we are near a major turning point.
We had a bit of a bounce in the early going as oil is down very sharply, but Fannie Mae (FNM) earnings are putting a damper on financials once again, and we are now turning negative.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: QLTY +66.7%, POWR +35.6%, BECN +17.9% (light volume), ENOC +11.9%, QSII +10.2%, SAPE +10.0% (also added to Top Picks List at FBR), INT +9.3%, FSYS +8.5% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord), FRP +8.2%, MBI +8.1%, MIDD +7.4%, PEGA +5.1%, PCR +4.7%, NVAX +4.2%, NTLS +3.5%, CHINA +3.3%, ALKS +3.0%, RBA +2.9%, RBS +2.9%, AGO +2.3%, AIRM +2.1%, APKT +2.0% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Cantor Fitzgerald), SD +1.9%, BRKS +1.6% (light volume), LYV +1.4%, ROSE +1.4%... M&A news: MIVA +53.8% (blinkx proposes acquisition of MIVA for $1.20 per share in cash)... Select airline stocks showing strength with crude trading lower: CAL +5.8%, LCC +4.9%, RYAAY +3.3% (also Ryanair's O'Leary eyes Stansted takeover - Daily Telegraph), AMR +3.2%, LUV +2.3%, UAUA +1.0%... Other news: ABK +8.9% (up in sympathy with MBI), S +6.0% (confirms no longer pursuing private placement of convertible preferred stock; also Google named as Sprint Nextel buyer - The Inquirer ), SNY +3.0% (gets fast-track review for Multaq heart drug), MCD +1.0% ( global comparable sales up 8.0% in July)... Analyst comments: Q +7.9% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), EXLS +2.9% (upgraded to Market Perform at FBR), AXA +1.0% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill). -
Euroopa ja Aasia indeksid:
Saksamaa DAX -0.39%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.00%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.45%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.11%
Venemaa MICEX -5.00%
Poola WIG -0.90%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.33%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.99%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -4.45%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -8.36%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.31%
Tai Set 50 -2.08%
India Sensex +0.33%
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finantssektoris äge rabelemine, spike 0,50%, alla tagasi, nüüd +0,80%
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Venemaa 58 armee osad lähenevad Lõuna-Osseetia pealinnale.
Mind teeb selline ebastabiilsus natuke rahutuks. -
erakordselt huvitav börsipäev, jõhker päevasisene volatiilsus, suured liikumised ja pöördelised punktid mitmes varaklassis
USD tugevnemise hoog ei näi raugevat, hetkel juba EUR/USD 1.50 löögi all, seotud varaklassid nagu kuld ja nafta languses, kuld selajuures alla olulise 850 USD taseme -
Bank of Georgia't ei saa küll LHV vahendusel praegu kaubelda, kuid Lõuna-Osseetia, Gruusia ja Venemaa väga tõsise konflikti olukorras panen siia graafiku aktsia liikumisest. Täna ollakse üle 25% punases.
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Vene tankid on Lõuna-Osseetia pealinna piiril. Kohe linna sisenemas...
Ja aega läks selleks kui palju??? Muide, Leedus kaotatakse lähitulevikus ära kohsustuslik ajateenistus. Lätis juba on kaotatud. Baltikum näib kui üks väga kaitsetu kaitsetu piirkond. Asuge ennast hedgema: ostke jahid ja tehke väikelaeva kapteni paberid, ostke väikelennuk ja tehke piloodi paberid. -
Ja venelased pommitasid teist lennubaasi.
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Georgia Ratings Lowered To ‘B’ And On CreditWatch Negative, Pending Outcome Of Military Action
S&P lowered long-term sovereign credit ratings on the Government of Georgia to 'B' from 'B+' and placed the ratings on CreditWatch
with negative implications, as the sovereign moves rapidly toward all-out war with Russia (foreign currency BBB+/Positive/A-2).
The 'B' short-term ratings were also placed on CreditWatch with negative implications.
The transfer and convertibility assessment was lowered to 'BB-' from 'BB'. -
dollar läks läbi 1.5
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Morgan Stanley (MS) investeerimisidee on meie poolt seatud sihi $45 LHV Pro all täitnud ning seetõttu sulgeme idee.
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finantssektor teeb päeva tippe
USD siiski veel 1.50 ei murdnud, käis lühiajaliselt läbi, kuid viimase 7 aasta suurim liikumine siiski
