Börsipäev 12. august
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Eile üritasid turud teha läbimurret oluliste tasemete pealt - näiteks S&P500 1300 punkti tase. Kui päeva alguses tundus juba, et asjaga saadakse edukalt hakkama ja (USA presidendi valimise eelne ?)-ralli võib edasi minna, siis päeva edenedes hakkasid müüjad välja tulema. Võimalik, et tegu oli n-ö fake out'iga ning päeva teises pooles alguse saanud müügisurve läheb täna edasi.
Mis on nüüd imelik, on see, et USA meediakanalid eile Venemaa-Gruusia konflikti pea ei puudutanudki. Justkui poleks sel mingit efekti finantsturgudele. Paraku ise siiski negatiivset efekti neilt sündmustelt investorusalduse kadumise seisukohalt näen ning võimalik, et see teema on veel jätkumas. Samuti pole konflikt avaldanud veel mitte mingit mõju nafta hindadele. Täna kuulutati välja Venemaa ja Gruusia sõja lõpp, kuid olukord pole siiski kaugeltki veel lahenenud. Enne sõja lõpu teadet kukkus Gruusia siseministri andmeil Vene lennukilt ka pomm ühele kolmest nafta torujuhtmest, mis riiki läbivad ja naftat Musta mere äärsesse Poti sadamasse transpordivad. Tabamuse hetkel naftat torus polnud ning keskkonnareostuse ohtu seetõttu ei ole.
USA turg oli varastel hommikutundidel juba kiiresti ära kukkumas, kuid teade sõja lõpetamisest andis pisut tuge juurde. Futuurid siiski ca -0.3%. -
LCC, AMR, CAL, ALK, DAL, NWA upgraded@JPMS
Arvatavasti saab siin täna väga valus andmine olema. Hetkel nafta ka -1,1%... -
Pisut materjali Briefngust, kes vahendab NY Posti:
The NY Post reports the SEC is working to unveil a proposal next month that would permanently tighten existing rules for short selling, according to people in talks with the agency. The details of the proposal are still being bandied about, but sources said one possibility the SEC's staff is discussing is expanding the controversial rules put in place last month that require short sellers to borrow shares before they short them. Another option being debated involves imposing fines on people who fail to deliver borrowed shares within the mandatory three-day period, these people said. Last month, the SEC imposed emergency rules requiring anyone who short the stocks of 19 companies to borrow shares within a three-day window before they short them. The order, which was intended to shore up markets by preventing so-called "naked" short selling, ends at 11:59 PM tonight, and the agency has no plans to extend it. That has caused some to fret that the 19 stocks covered by the order could once again become vulnerable to rapid price declines. And while the SEC's proposal is slated to be unveiled mid-September, it could take months to finalize.
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Ja Glitnir esineb täna väga südika soovitusega Mecheli (MTL) suunas:
With its profitable assets and promising future, Mechel is now the cheapest company not only in the Russian steel universe, but also on the global market. In the absence of political risks, Mechel will never again be so cheap.
New P&L expectations mirror the company’s ability to take full advantage of the favourable situation on both the steel and mining markets.
We retain our positive view on Mechel’s fundamentals, which has led us to upgrade our recommendation on the company to BUY, with a 12-month target price of USD 64.8. However, we could reconsider this recommendation if the company receives sizable fines from the Federal Antimonopoly Service and Federal Tax Service.
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Goldman Sachs (GS) on saamas negatiivset kajastust. Oppenheimer on langetamas GSi kasumiprognoose konsensusest allapoole ning Deutsche Bank on langetamas soovitust 'osta' pealt 'hoiale'. Ladenburg langetas GSi kasumiprognoose juba eile enne turu sulgemist.
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Solar aktsiad on täna alustamas päeva tugevalt. Eile pärast turu sulgemist suutis üllatada LDK Solar (LDK) tulemustega, mis ületasid analüütikute konsensust tõeliselt suurelt. Aktsia on eelturul +22%:
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.29 per share, $0.87 better than the First Call consensus of $0.42; revenues rose 345.9% year/year to $441.7 mln vs the $282 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees Q3 revs of $486-496 mln vs. $307.05 mln consensus with wafer shipments between 210 MW to 220 MW. Co issues upside guidance for FY08, sees FY08 revs of $1.65-1.75 bln vs. $1.16 bln consensus with wafer shipments in the range of 750 MW to 770 MW.
Lisaks on täna korralike tulemustega väljas ka konkurent JA Solar (JASO).
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Dollar langus toetab endiselt USA eksportijaid. USA kaubandusdefitsiit on vähenenud juunis 56.8 mld dollarile (vs 59.2 mld mais). Siiski on ediselt rekordkõrge nafta import. Importkaupade hinnad kasvasid juunis 2.6% ja eksportkaupade hinnad 1%. Kokku imporditi juunis 1.8% rohkem ja eksport kasvas märkimisväärsed 4%.
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Commodities Are Due for an Oversold Bounce
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/12/2008 9:06 AM EDT
Lower oil and a stronger dollar continue to support the market. Market players are counting on those trends to at least hold, and that is driving some recent trends such as strength in airlines and truckers and weakness in steel and agriculture.
For the moment, the market has set aside concerns about other economic issues based on the idea that weak oil and a stronger dollar will cure all ills. This is producing much better technical action, and obviously there are plenty of underinvested folks trying to add exposure.
Keep in mind that gold, oil and many of the commodity stocks have become extremely oversold, much like banks in mid-July, and are probably due for at least a technical oversold bounce in the near term. There is a lot of debate out there over whether this is just a severe correction in energy and commodities or whether we just had a bubble and are now seeing demand destruction that will continue to drive prices down. Once we see how things act on an oversold bounce, we'll have a better idea, but for now these stocks are broken and we shouldn't be too trusting.
The market is flat-lining as oil recovers from early losses and some downgrades and news hits the financial sector.
I'm posting on a limited basis today and will check back in a bit later. I see some better charts out there, but I'm not rushing to put a lot of capital to work.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SPPI +21.5%, LDK +19.1% (upgraded to Neutral at Piper), AIRT +17.9%, VSE +13.8%, AMCN +12.2%, INTX +10.3% (light volume), CSY +7.4% (light volume), FUQI +5.6% (light volume), FLR +5.3%, TWTC +2.7%, FOSL +1.3%... M&A news: UB +10.0% (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ to offer to acquire all publicly held shares of UnionBanCal for $63/share in cash), OVEN +7.3% (to be acquired by The Middleby Corp for $200 mln in cash and stock, with implied value of ~$6.47/share)... Select solar stocks showing strength following LDK results: SOLR +12.9%, CSIQ +9.7%, STP +8.4%, TSL +7.9%, CSUN +7.0%, SOLF +6.2%, SOL +5.4%, YGE +4.5%, ESLR +2.1%, FSLR +1.6%... Select European financials showing strength with UBS reporting: RBS +1.7% (Royal Bank of Scotland, Santander, Fortis sell ABN unit to Goldman Group, according to source - DJ), ING +1.6%, BCS +1.1%... Other news: GA +5.9% (announces $150 mln share repurchase program), ALU +2.9% (still checking), GILD +1.7% ( announces that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approves Viread for chronic bepatitis B in adults), CSC +1.6% (wins U.S. Air Force contract to provide maintenance support worldwide)... Analyst comments: LCC +7.3%, NWA +6.6%, DAL +5.4%, CAL +4.8% and AMR +3.8% (all upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan); COG +1.1% (upgraded to Buy at BofA).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SCA -37.5%, SONS -18.9% (also downgraded to Hold at Cantor Fitzgerald), ZOLT -13.8% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Jesup & Lamont and downgraded to Sell from Buy at Signal Hill), TRAK -10.7% (also downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), HBIO -8.5%, CRXL -4.4%, MDR -4.3%, MBLX -4.1% (light volume), NUAN -1.3%... M&A news: MIDD -6.3% (to acquire OVEN for $200 mln in cash and stock)... Select financials showing modest weakness: WB -2.8%, MS -2.6% (to repurchase auction rate securities ; also Moody's downgrades Morgan Stanley to A1, stable), MER -2.0%, JPM -1.9% (loses $1.5 bln since July - Reuters), BAC -1.5%, C -1.2%, LEH -1.0%... Other news: ALTU -29.1% (announces achievement of primary endpoint in phase 3 efficacy trial of Trizytek; patients from 3 out of 6 non-U.S. countries did not appear to show a difference between Trizytek and placebo groups; also downgraded to Neutral at Cowen), CMED -4.9% (announces concurrent offerings of $150 mln of Convertible Senior Notes and purchased ADSs pursuant to ADS issuance and repurchase agreements), AW -4.8% (comments on Waste Management's latest unsolicited offer for Republic Services; says 'fails to address fully massive antitrust issues and financing'), SNP -4.6% (still checking), INFY -4.0% (still checking), CHL -3.6% (shares fall on share-price estimate cut - Bloomberg.com), ZNH -2.9% (China airlines fall on pessimism on traffic - Bloomberg.com), VTR -2.6% (enters agreement to sell 4.4 mln shares of common stock)... Analyst comments: MDVN -4.4% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), ANN -4.0% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), UTHR -3.0% (initiated with Sell at Piper), GS -2.4% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), PRXL -2.3% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), IBKC -2.2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Sterne Agee), UDR -2.0% (downgraded to Sell at BofA), TYC -2.0% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), WYNN -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), ITT -1.5% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), HWCC -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Piper), MCD -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS). -
Euroopa ja Aasia indeksid:
Saksamaa DAX -0.38%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.49%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.06%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.42%
Venemaa MICEX +3.24%
Poola WIG +0.68%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.95%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.00%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.52%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.68%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.04%
Tai Set 50 N/A (Suletud)
India Sensex -1.88%
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Sector ETF Leaders In First Hour:
Solar Power- TAN +2.9%, KWT +0.90%, Metals & Mining- XME +3.0%, Ag/Chem- MOO +1.5%, Gold Miners- GDX +1.5%, Materials- XLB +1.2%, IYM +0.90%, Energy- XLE +0.90%, IYE +0.80%Sector ETF Laggards In First Hour:
Regional Banks- RKH -3.6%, KRE -2.4%, Commercial Banks- KBE -3.6%, Financial Services- IYG -3.4%, IAI -2.9%, Finance- IYF -2.8%, XLF -3.1%, Transports- IYT -2.5%, Heating Oil- UHN -1.9%, Wind Energy- FAN -1.8%
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Ja Goldman Sachsi aktsiahinna suunas kriitika jätkub:
Credit Suisse cuts their Q3, 2008 & 2009 ests, and cuts their tgt to $225-250 from $250-275, based on challenging market conditions. -
huvitav kaua veel suudetakse sama stsenaariumit jätkata? taas kord - nafta alla, turg üles
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Pisut subjektiivsust - ma olen skeptiline praeguse tõusu jätkumise osas...
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Long ANN @ $26.01 Piperi downgrade järel. Retail on liiga tugev, et see niimoodi alla jääks. Pealegi on Citigroupilt lots & lots of explaining to do nende varahommikuse downgrade kohta.. selle põhipoint oli, et kvartal on pekkis, aga enne avanemist firma suutis selle juba ümber lükata.
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CNBC commentator says NY AG Cuomo's auction rate securities investigation largely focuses on three firms: WB, MER & to some extent MS
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Sector ETF Midday Leaders:
Solar Power- TAN +3.1%, KWT +0.70%, Gold Miners- GDX +1.3%, Materials- XLB +1.0%, IYM +0.40%, Software- SWH +0.70%, Metals & Mining- XME +1.0%, Ag/Chem- MOO +0.70%Sector ETF Midday Laggards:
Commercial Banks- KBE -3.0%, Financial Services- IYG -2.9%, IAI -3.0%, Finance- XLF -2.7%, IYF -2.3%, Regional Banks- KRE -2.1%, RKH -2.5%, Base Metals- DBB -2.5%, Wind Energy- FAN -1.9%, Transports- IYT -1.8%, Real Estate- IYR -1.4% -
Ahh, müüsin ära ANN @ $26.00, ei ole see kuskile läinud ja RTH kukkus ka ära.
Vb võtan enne close tagasi - citi peab kuidagi oma s*tta calli vähemalt kommenteerima. -
Dallas Morning News - Dallas Fed Chief Fisher says U.S. economy faces 'sustained period of anemia'
"I expect that in the second half of this year we will broach zero growth," he said. -
Ladenburg Thalmann-i Richard Bove kärpis JPM prognoose ning aktsia kukkus cut-i peale veel ~$1 usd, kaubeldes hetkel -9.31% languses $37.99 tasemel.
Ladenburg Thalmann's Richard Bove cuts JPM 2009 share view to $2.77 from $2.89 and 2010 share view to $3.38 from $3.48. First Call consensus for 2009 is $3.32 and 2010 is $4.50. -
Sector ETF Late Day Leaders:
Gold Miners- GDX +3.5%, Solar Power- TAN +2.5%, KWT +0.30%, Metals & Mining- XME +2.0%, Ags.- DBA +1.4%, Materials- XLB +1.1%, IYM +0.70%, Ag/Chem- MOO +1.0%Sector ETF Late Day Laggards:
Commercial Banks- KBE -6.6%, Regional Banks- KRE -4.1%, RKH -6.0%, Financial Services- IYG -5.5%, IAI -5.1%, Finance- IYF -4.4%, XLF -5.0%, Homebuilders- XHB -3.6%, Real Estate- IYR -2.7%
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AMATi tulemused inline...
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Peale turge on avaldatud veel natuke olulist infot:
American Intl (AIG) Director bought 30K shares at $24.09-24.27 on 8/12
DJ andmetel - Fed's Lacker says chance of recession ahead; inflation news relatively adverse; commercial construction a risk for second half.
NVIDIA corp (NVDA) poolt esmapilgul kergelt paremad tulemused, kuigi käive alla ootuste ning aktsia hetkel järelturul kauplemas kerges languses -0.27% $11.10 tasemel.
NVDA prelim $0.13 vs $0.12 First Call consensus; revs $892.7 mln vs $908.38 mln First Call consensus
NVDA announces a $1 bln increase, to $2.7 bln, in its stock repurchase program
