Börsipäev 14. august
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täna tund aeg enne turu avanemist avaldatakse USA juulikuu tarbijahinnaindeksi muutus. Juunis oli see +1.1%, juulilt oodatakse +0.4% (tuumikosalt ehk core CPI'lt oodatakse näitu +0.2%). Oodatust väiksem näit oleks turgudele kindlasti positiivne, kuid kui mälu mind ei peta, siis viimastel kuudel on tarbijahinnaindeksi muutuse ootused olnud pidevalt väiksemad kui tegelik number. Seega poleks minu silmis ka seekord suurem number aktsiaturgude maailma lõppu kaasatoovaks üllatuseks.
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Eurostati flash estimate. EZ Q2 GDP -0,2% QoQ, +1,5% YoY. Esimene QoQ langus alates 1995 aastast.
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QoQ langus vastas konsensuse ootustele:
Allikas: ThomsonReuters
Suurim languse põhjus on Saksamaa 2Q SKP -0.5% langus QoQ. Prantsusmaa ja Itaalia -0.3% QoQ on ka kindlasti olulised.
Vähe positiivsem märk on inflatsiooni alanemine.
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EUR sisuliselt ei liikunudki. Oli jah oodatud.
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USA futuurid on pärast Wal-Marti tulemusi plussis. Wal-Marti kasum kasvas teises kvartalis 17%. Puhaskasum oli $3.45 mld dollarit ehk 87 senti per aktsia. Aasta tagasi oli kasum $2.95 mld ehk 72 senti per aktsia. Hinnatundlikele USA tarbijatele on meeldinud Wal-Marti strateegia, mis keskendub madalametele hindadele. Wal-Marti tagline: “Save Money. Live Better”.
Q3 EPS prognoosiks anti $0.73-0.76 vs $0.76 konsensuse poolt.
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Praeguse seisu järgi annaksid Merril Lynchi (MER) aktsiad investoritele dividendimääraks 5.3%. Kuigi ettevõtte CEO John Thain on lubanud dividende hoida samal tasemel, siis investeerimismaailm on muutumas üha skeptilisemaks. Ajal, mil finantsettevõtted vajavad raha rohkem kui ei kunagi varem, ei ole mõttekas niimoodi dividendidena raha kahe käega laiali jagada. Kuna hiljuti tõsteti ka $9.8 miljardi väärtuses uute aktsiate emiteerimise läbi kapitali, on dividendimaksete koorem oluliselt kasvanud ning seetõttu liiguvad ringi jutud, et MER peab oma dividende langetama võimalik, et enam kui 50% võrra.
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FBR kiidab täna Intelit (INTC):
Friedman Billings notes recent checks into PC builds with the top five notebook ODMs and top four desktop motherboard makers suggest that 3Q PC shipments are tracking towards normal seasonal growth, consistent with average trends over the past five years, a positive, given that the market is a larger unit market today. With seasonal PC growth intact for 3Q and with Atom shipments ramping, they believe INTC is tracking towards, or slightly above, the midpoint of its 3Q revenue guidance range. Their contacts tell us that Atom-related supply constraints should ease by late August, and that Montevina should be available soon, both contributing to Intel's strong 3Q sequential revenue growth. While Intel continues to execute on its best process ramp and product roadmap offering in a decade, they feel the firm is trading near a full valuation, and they prefer other PC-related chip stocks like MRVL instead. -
Ajal, mil kinnisvarasektori kohta tuleb vaid morjendavaid uudiseid, on Greenspan väljas arvamusega, et võime näha kinnisvaraturu stabiliseerumist juba 2009. aasta esimeses pooles (!)
Mr. Greenspan predicts U.S. house prices will begin to stabilize in the first half of next year. -
Greenspan-i poolt on see väga huvitav meelemuutus, kuna ta on olnud väga pikalt üksnes negatiivsete nootidega väljas.
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Jesup & Lamont analüüsimaja usub, et Boeingu (BA) töötajad alustavad suure tõenäosusega streiki. Boeingu töölisi esindavad kaks ametiühingut ei suuda BA’ga kokkuleppele jõuda seadusandlikes küsimustes.
BA ise streiki teket ei usu. BA viimased streigid on kestnud 1-1,5 kuud. BA usub, et kui streik peaks tekkima, oleks selle mõju ettevõttele ja varustajatele olematu. Kui streik peaks venima pikemaks, võivad kahju saada kõik lennutööstus ettevõtted (AIR, ATRO, BEAV, COL, DCO, GR, ISSC, LMIA, MOGA, PCP).
Üldist sentimenti BA suhtes streik muuta ei tohiks. Küll aga võib lähiajal meedias kajastuda palju negatiivset BA kohta.
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July Core CPI m/m +0.3% vs +0.2% consensus
Initial Jobless Claims 450K vs. 435K consensus; prior revised to 460K from 455K
July CPI m/m +0.8% vs +0.4% consensus -
Ladenburg discusses two day selloff in financials; says anecdotal data suggests shorting was resumed with a vengeance
Ladenburg Thalmann notes that bank stocks have plunged in the past two days -- the KBW Bank Index has fallen 11.8% from its high Monday to its close Wednesday. Firm says one might argue that the declines in these issues are due to renewed fears concerning the credit cycle and the economy. In these past two days the two haloed icons of the industry GS and JPM fell in response to earnings est cuts. LEH continued to give off negative vibrations relative to its balance sheet. However, firm thinks there may be another explanation, since a number of banking and brokerage stocks are not impacted by the negative developments affecting the targeted companies. They note that on Tuesday night the SEC strictures on trading 19 financial stocks were lifted. The anecdotal data the firm is receiving suggests that shorting these companies was resumed with a vengeance.
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Bull/Bear Struggle Continues
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/14/2008 9:12 AM EDT
--Bernice Johnson Reagon
Despite a pretty good rally over the last couple of weeks, the market still faces substantial challenges. The bulls have been arguing that the worst is over for banks, lower oil and commodity prices will reduce inflation and empower the consumer and, most importantly, that we have fully priced in a struggling economy. These ideas have been embraced widely enough to give us a decent move off the mid-July lows and to produce some favorable technical action.
The bear's response here is not a big surprise. They tell us that the bulls are ahead of things once again and are just doing the same thing they always do in a bear market. They are prematurely hopeful, looking past the many great challenges that are still out there and ignoring the repercussions of some of the worst economic issues in many decades.
I tend to side with the bears and, as I've stated, I believe that the market is simply enjoying a bear-market bounce. We are still holding up pretty well, and it was impressive that higher crude oil prices didn't hurt the market more Wednesday. Nonetheless, I believe the upside here is limited and that the weight of our problems will eventual hit us again, especially when navigating seasonal weakness.
Regardless of the big picture, the market has been very tough on traders lately, unless you have a very short time frame. We continue to have very choppy trading and are hypersensitive to any move in crude oil, which means that most trades lately are nothing more than a bet on the direction of oil.
We had higher than expected CPI and unemployment, which has turned the premarket action negative. There is no question these numbers are a disappointment and one of the big challenges the market has to deal with. It is going to be very instructive today to see how the market contends with this, especially if oil continues the bounce that started Wednesday.
Snap on your trading helmet and adjust your goggles, it's going to be a tricky one.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VM +9.5%, EL +6.8%, ASYS +6.5%, IOC +6.4%, CLNE +1.8%... M&A news: HLYS +14.4% (SKX proposes to acquire co for $5.25 a share)... Select metals/mining stocks showing modest strength: BBL +3.2%, ACH +2.9%, BHP +2.9%, AAUK +2.2%, GOLD +1.9%, AUY +1.9%, AU +1.5%... Other news: PMI +25.4% (announces that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Australian mortgage insurance subsidiary and related Australian holding co to QBE Insurance Group), IDEV +9.1% (announces the issuance of U.S. Patent No. 7,410,978 , entitled "Once Daily Dosage Forms of Trospium"), IVZ +7.6% (will replace IACI in S&P 500 after the close on 8/20), GMKT +4.5% (continued strength following yesterday's ~15% surge), GILT +4.2% (provides update on merger transaction following 16% decline in yesterday's afternoon trading; cos questioning whether all of the conditions of the merger agreement have been met), BKE +3.4% (will replace WHQ in S&P 600 after the close on 8/19), CROX +2.9% (up in sympathy with HLYS), UBS +2.9% (plans to focus on India, Russia, Brazil, Kurer tells Sole - Bloomberg.com), SCL +1.4% (will replace BLG in S&P 600 after the close on 8/19), LCAPA +1.3% (approves up to $300 mln share repurchase authorization), GPRO +1.2% (FDA grants full approval of PROCLEIX ULTRIO blood screening assay), TS +1.0% (still checking)... Analyst comments: KGC +3.3% (upgraded to Buy at Canaccord), DE +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel), JEC +1.4% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel), CREE +1.2% (initiated with a Buy at Cantor Fitzgerald).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PMII -52.0%, LYTS -34.2% (also downgraded to Underperform at Baird), SPRD -20.5%, GRRF -16.7%, BGG -11.6%, GSOL -10.9% (light volume), COIN -9.4%, PAET -6.2%, IPI -5.3%, NTAP -4.2%, MDAS -2.0%, PMTI -1.8%... Select European financials showing weakness: ING -3.8% (trading ex-dividend), BCS -3.4% (may write down 1.5 billion pounds more, says Goldman - Reuters.com), RBS -3.2%... Other news: BSX -5.8% (Heart stents' advantage over drugs fades with time, study says - Bloomberg.com), TRLG -3.4% and NOK -1.1% (still checking)... Analyst comments: CPHD -5.5% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), OVTI -5.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird), CT -3.7% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), ASML -2.6% (downgraded to Hold at ING - Bloomberg), GD -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), CS -1.4% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), LPNT -1.3% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Leerink Swann), MDR -1.3% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup). -
Euroopa ja Aasia põhiindeksid:
Saksamaa DAX -0.36%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.06%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.26%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.86%
Venemaa MICEX +1.43%
Poola WIG -0.52%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.51%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.47%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.38%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.92%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.21%
Tai Set 50 +0.56%
India Sensex -2.44%
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Eilse börsipäeva keskel jõudsid turule jutud, et eBay on huvitatud Interparki 29.3%lisest osalusest ja Interparki tippametniku Ki Hyung Lee 7.3%lisest osalusest – kokku 36.6% – Lõuna-Korea e-kommerts ettevõttes ja LHV Pro investeerimisidees Gmarketis (GMKT). Selle peale tõusis GMKTi aktsia enam kui 12%. Sarnase sisuga kuulujutte lendas ringi ka aasta alguses, kuna Interpark teatas detsembris, et on huvitatud oma positsioonide müümisest. Kuid hinna läbirääkimistel turutingimuste keerulise olukorra tõttu kellegagi kokkuleppele ei saadud ning tehing jäigi katki. Nüüd on teema taas üles kerkinud, kuid sedapuhku on olukord pisut teistsugune. Miks? Kui varem oli tegu ikkagi kuulujuttude tasandiga, siis seekord on eBay ise kinnitanud, et osalusest ollakse huvitatud ning Korea Konkurentsiametile on taotlus juba ka esitatud ja oodatakse otsust, kas eBay võib Gmarketis sellist osalust omada või mitte. Kui otsus on positiivne, saavad eBay ja Interpark hakata pidama läbirääkimisi müüdava osaluse hinna üle.
Arvestades LHV Pro all mu varem mitmeid kordi väljendatud tugevat poolehoidu ettevõtte fundamentaalnäitajatele, juhtkonna tegevusele ja GMKTi plaanile laiendada oma erinevaid pakutavaid tootekategooriaid ning liikuda Jaapanisse, on minu arvates ettevõtte tuleviku ees väga palju positiivseid katalüsaatoreid. Ehk teiste sõnadega on mul raske ette kujutada olukorda, kus Interpark loobuks oma osalusest eBay kasuks hinnaga, mis oleks kõigest 10-15% kallim aktsia hinnast enne eilset hüpet. Praegustel ja isegi kõrgematel tasemetel kauplesime vähem kui aasta tagasi ja samal ajal on GMKT omalt poolt näidanud vaid väga korralikke tulemusi. Seda, et ostukõnelusi võetakse väga tõsiselt, näitab ka Interparki aktsia tänane +9.5%line tõus.
RBC ja Coweni analüütikud on jõudnud ka olukorda kommenteerima tulla ning mõlemad näevad loogilise jätkuna eBay poolse osaluse ostmise järel GMKT’is eBayt aja jooksul taga ajamas ülevõttu kogu ettevõttele. See ja loomulikult ka praegune osaluse ostmine sõltub suuresti ka Korea konkurentsiameti loast, kuid eBay ametlik huvi ettevõtte vastu paneb igaljuhul aktsiale teatud põhja alla ning ma ei näe võimatuna olukorda, kus eile alanud tõus täna jätkuks ning mingil hetkel kaupleks aktsia uutel 52- nädala tippudel või nende lähistel.
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Cramer ütleb tänase hirmutavalt suure CPI numbri ja turu miinuses avanemise peale, et see võib pakkuda ostukohta hoopis. On ju viimasel kuul commodity'te hinnad kiiresti allapoole kolisenud ja seega kõrge CPI number justkui ajaloo raamatust näidu lugemine.
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Sector ETF First Hour Leaders:
Homebuilders- XHB +2.7%, REgional Banks- RKH +2.4%, KRE +0.90%, Commercial Banks- KBE +2.3%, Retail- XRT +2.3%, Financial Services- IYG +2.3%, IAI +1.2%, Finance- XLF +2.0%, IYF +1.7%, Ag/Chem- MOO +1.2%Sector ETF First Hour Laggards:
Silver- SLV -3.0%, Heating Oil- UHN -1.1%, Gold- GLD -1.0%, Gold Miners- GLD -1.0%, Oil HLDRS- OIH -0.90%, Utilities- XLU -0.80%, Telecom- IYZ -0.80% -
NY AG to make announcement in auction-rate sec probe at 11:30 ET
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CNBC commentator says this is not a global settlement for the auction rate securities case as the SEC has not yet signed off on any settlement; JPM to pay a $25 mln fine, MS to pay a $35 mln fine
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JP Morgan Chase to buy back $7 bln in auction rate securities ning ettevõtte poolt juba kinnitus ka kokkuleppe kohta väljas.
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ECB'S Weber says Germany, Euro zone experiencing economic dry spell, should not talk of recession
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Kes eile PDO shordi kaasa tegi võiks osa possust kinni panna $12.20 tasemel ning ülejäänule stop kindlasti peale.
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Naftafutuurid on langenud juba -2.31% $113.32 barrel tasemele, mis annab turgudele tõusuks hoogu juurde.
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Midday Sector ETF Leaders:
Retail- XRT +4.6%, RTH +2.2%, Homebuilders- XHB +3.7%, Regional Banks- RKH +3.4%, KRE +0.90%, Commercial Banks- KBE +3.3%, Financial Services- IAI +1.9%, IYG +2.9%, Finance- XLF +2.8%, IYF +2.4%, Cons. Disct.- VCR +2.5%, XLY +2.4%Midday Sector ETF Laggards:
Silver- SLV -4.6%, Nat. gas- UNG -4.6%, Gold Miners- GDX -3.6%, Metals/Mining- XME -3.2%, Oil HLDRS- OIH -2.6%, Energy- XLE -2.5%, IYE -2.2%, Commodities- GSG -2.5%, DBC -2.1% -
US Airways prices its public offering of 19 mln shares of common stock at an offering price of $8.50 per share
Aktsiaga kauplemine seni veel peatatud, viimati kauples $9.46 tasemel. -
LCC aktsiaga kauplemine jätkub ning aktsia kukkunud hetkel -4.80% $8.70 tasemele.
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Eilne päeva lõpp vajus väga kiiresti ära, aga tundub, et täna võib väike eelis siiski pullidel olla.
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Euro-dollari suhtest oleme varem ka kordi rääkinud. Sedapuhku on Goldman Sachs omalt poolt ütlemas, et ilmselt on dollar oma põhja ära teinud.
DJ reports the US dollar has bottomed, Goldman Sachs says. Co says relative support for the dollar is coming from rapidly slowing activity outside the US, especially in Europe, the UK, much of Scandinavia, Australia, New Zealand and Canada. Also, the US growth picture has stabilized somewhat, co says, while the low value of the dollar has substantially improved the real trade balance of the US and reduces the challenges of funding the current account deficit, while lower oil prices also remove pressure. The Nybot US Dollar Index has rallied nearly 5% in the last week, to 76.70 in recent trading. -
Late Day Sector ETF Leaders:
Retail- XRT +2.5%, Homebuilders- XHB +2.6%, Cons. Disct.- VCR +1.7%, XLY +1.7%, Commercial Banks- KBE +1.5%, Regional Banks- RKH +1.4%, Transports- IYT +1.2%, Finance- XLF +1.4%, IYF +1.2%Late Day Sector ETF Laggards:
Silver- SLV -5.2%, Nat Gas- UNG -4.4%, Gold Miners- GDX -3.8%, Gold- GLD -2.5%, Energy- XLE -1.8%, IYE -1.3%, Oil HLDRS- OIH -1.5%, Metals/Mining- XME -1.7%, Steel- SLX -1.4%
