Börsipäev 19. august
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täna kell 15:30 Eesti aja järgi avaldatakse USA tootjahinnaindeks, väljastatud ehituslubade ning uute elamuehituste numbrid:
Analüütikute konsensus prognoosib, et juulis langes elamuehituste alustamine 17 aasta madalaimale tasemele. Tänaste makronumbrite taustast võib lähemalt lugeda Bloombergi artiklist.
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LHV klientide huvi päikeseenergiaga tegelevate ettevõtete vastu on suur, seega lisan siia tänahommikused uudised euroopast vastava sektori ettevõtete kohta.
German solar module maker Solon (SOO1) doubled its first-half operating profit thanks to strong demand in Spain and Italy, it said on Tuesday, confirming its outlook for this year and next.
Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) rose to 31.5 million euros ($46.38 million) from 15.7 million euros on sales of 410.6 million euros, up 112 percent. Solon said it made 60 percent of its first-half sales in Spain, where it benefited from strong demand for large-scale solar power plants, fuelled by favourable regulations which are however due to run out later this year. Growth in the Spanish market is expected to slow sharply as the government is about to introduce a new subsidy scheme which is likely to bring hefty cuts. "We expect to offset slower growth in Spain with growth in other markets, such as Italy," a Solon spokeswoman said. Solon still aims to increase sales and adjusted net income by about 75 percent this year and by about 50 percent in 2009.
Solon trades at 10.9 times 2009 projected earnings, while bigger German rival SolarWorld (SWV) trades at 17.4.
SolarWorld (SWV) aktsia on avanenud korralikus plussis järgneva spekulatsiooni peale Bloombergis: Solarworld AG climbed to the highest in more than two months in Frankfurt trading on renewed speculation General Electric Co. may make an offer for Germany's third-largest solar power company.
The stock is ``up again on unlikely rumors that GE will bid 37.50 euros per share for Solarworld,'' said Thomas Nagel, a trader at Equinet AG in Frankfurt.
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Cowen oli eile väljas positiivse kommentaariga Gmarket'i (GMKT) osas - nimelt oleks analüütiku hinnangul ettevõtte ost eBay (EBAY) poolt loogiline samm, sest viimase enda Lõuna-Korea äri "on võitlemas juba kaotatud lahingut Gmarketiga":
Cowen believes that Internet Auction's (eBay Korea) 2Q08 results support their view that the co is fighting a losing battle with GMKT. Internet Auction's results were hurt by a disclosure to users in the second quarter that a 'data breach' occurred at the co. However, the overall trend has remained consistently negative. For the past 10 quarters, total Internet Auction expenses have grown faster than revs. If the co focuses on profitability, it is likely to lose significant share and risks being marginalized. If the co focuses on growth and market share gains, it is likely to generate greater losses. Either way, they believe it is likely that eBay will pull out of the market within two years. Firm continues to recommend purchase of Gmarket shares.
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Hommikul jättis Bank of Japan intressimäära (0.5%) muutmata ja panen siia graafiku praegustest G3 intressimääradest:
Jaapani keskpank oli ka tulevikuprognooside suhtes väga pessimistlik. Jaapani ettevõtetele mõjub valusalt nafta- ja toorainete hinnatõus. Ekspordikasv on samuti aeglustunud. Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Managementi vanemökonomist andis Jaapani majandusele järgneva hinnangu:
``The economy isn't likely to recover until 2010, and rates won't rise before then.''
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Enne ehituslubade ja alustatud ehitusprojektide statistika avalikustamist tegi turule positiivse üllatuse Home Depot (HD). Majapidamistarbeid müüva HD kasum langes oodatust vähem. Teises kvartalis teeniti $0.71 dollarit aktsia kohta (10 senti rohkem kui oodati). HD tegevjuht tunnistas, et kinnisvaraturg ja kahanev ostujõud avaldavad jätkuvalt ettevõtte kasumile survet ja selleks aastaks prognoositakse 24% kasumilangust.
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Päeva quote, mis on lisaks Freddie Macile ja Fennie Maele avaldamas survet finantssektorile:
"We're not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we're going to see a whopper, we're going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks," said Rogoff, who is an economics professor at Harvard University and was the International Monetary Fund's chief economist from 2001 to 2004.
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08:30 July Building Permits 937K vs. 970K consensus; prior 1138K
08:30 July PPI y/y +9.8% vs +9.3% consensus, prior +9.2%
08:30 July Housing Starts 965K vs. 960K consensus; prior revised to 1084K from 1066K
08:30 July Core PPI +3.5% vs +3.2% consensus, prior +3.0%
08:30 July PPI m/m +1.2% vs +0.6% consensus, prior +1.8%
08:30 July Core PPI m/m +0.7% vs +0.2% consensus, prior +0.2%
Turu reaktsioon on negatiivne - eelturul on SPY -0.9% ja QQQQ -0.55%. -
PPI kasvutempo on küll viimase kolme kuu aeglaseim (1.2% ), kuid konsensuse ootusest tervelt kaks korda rohkem.
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Juuli PPI tegi läbi suurima tõusu viimase 27 aasta jooksul. Analüütikud arvasid asja kohta selliselt, et inflatsioon oli oodatust kiirem, kuid nende arvates võiks see olla tipp ning edaspidi võiks oodata inflatsiooni vähenemist. Samuti avaldab näitaja survet FED-i intressimäärade kergitamisele. Dow futuur reageeris makroandmetele ligi 60 punktise kukkumisega, kuid on nüüd vaikselt taastumas.
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Lower Oil and a Strong Dollar Are Not Enough
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/19/2008 8:43 AM EDT
Life's challenges are not supposed to paralyze you, they're supposed to help you discover who you are.
--Bernice Johnson Reagon
We have a shaky start this morning, as overseas markets struggle and worries grow in the financial sector.
While lower oil and a stronger dollar are positives, it is very important to realize that things are seldom that simple in the stock market. There are many other issues out there, as this research report from a Merrill Lynch economist spells out in very gloomy detail.
This transcript from another economist outlines the problems in even more dour detail.
As always, there are good arguments for both sides of the market, but we have to pay attention to the technical action. The market will tell us what really matters. If we can't rally on weaker oil and a stronger dollar, then we would be foolish to believe that those things will drive us higher.
As I discussed Monday, the major indices have a vulnerable technical pattern known as a "bearish wedge." This is nothing more than a lower volume rise off the July 15 low with little basing or support established along the way.
Such patterns are susceptible to sudden spikes down, as we saw Monday. We had a very similar type of pattern when we bottomed in March and then rallied through mid-May. That bearish wedge ended very badly, as we eventually made a new low.
The big question now is whether this time the bulls have the fortitude to find support? Is lower oil and a better dollar going to support the market this time and prevent another breakdown? The trouble is the financial sector is looking very vulnerable again as Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddy Mac (FRE) head for nationalization, and talk grows about more writedowns.
The market is in "prove it" mode now. We need to respect the vulnerable technical position and not blindly believe in the power of lower oil and a higher dollar. The market will be our guide, and, frankly, it isn't looking so hot.
We have a shaky start this morning as overseas markets struggle and worries grow in the financial sector.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ANTP +13.9%, XFML +13.6%, MDT +2.0%... M&A news: NMX +1.7% and CME +1.1% (CME Group confirms shareholders and NYMEX shareholders and Class A Members approve acquisition)... Other news: WCG +20.9% (enters into material definitive agreement; co to pay $35.2 mln to U.S. Attorney's Office), FMR +3.9% (announces share repurchase program to acquire Up to 1.5 mln shares), HNP +2.6% (Chinese power producers' shares rise on tariff speculation - Bloomberg.com), ELN +2.2% (still checking)... Analyst comments: MA +1.0% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CNTF -26.7%, SOL -3.6%... Select mortgage/financial names trading lower: FMD -7.6%, AIB -4.3%, ABK -3.9%, WB -3.3%, AXA -2.9%, LEH -2.8% (WSJ reports LEH fiscal third quarter, which closes at the end of this month, has turned ugly and the bank is racing to get deals done before the period ends), HBC -2.6%, FNM -2.1%, UBS -2.1%, ING -2.1%, DB -2.0%, AIG -1.5%... Select cruise-related names showing weakness: CUK -2.3%, CCL -2.3%, RCL -0.8%... Other news: SPLS -7.4% (details Corporate Express integration plans and announces preliminary second quarter performance), LVS -4.8% and MGM -4.1% (still checking), ABMD -4.0% (announces a 2.41 mln share common stock secondary offering). -
Euroopa ja Aasia põhiindeksid:
Saksamaa DAX -1.94%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -2.00%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -2.04%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -2.19%
Venemaa MICEX -6.26%
Poola WIG -2.41%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.28%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.13%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.06%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.03%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.79%
Tai Set 50 -0.83%
India Sensex -0.70%
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Sector ETF First Hour Leaders:
Nat. Gas- UNG +1.4%, Oil HLDRS- OIH +1.1%, Solar Power- KWT +1.1%, Energy- XLE +1.0%, IYE -0.50%, Heating Oil- UHN -0.40%Sector ETF First Hour Laggards:
Regional Banks- KRE -4.9%, RKH -3.2%, Commercial Banks- KBE -3.2%, REITS/Real Estate- ICF -3.2%, IYR -3.2%, Homebuilders- XHB -2.9%, Financial Services- IYG -3.2%, IAI -2.3%, Finance- IYF -2.8%, XLF -2.9%, Retail- XRT -2.2% -
Aitähh Gerd Kanterile olümpiakulla eest!!!!
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Fisher says Fed may raise rates sooner than some expect
Fed's Fisher says that if the Fed has to raise rates to curb inflation, this can be done while keeping markets open
Toornafta futuurid jõudnud kergesse tõusu ronida +0.35% $113.25 barrel tasemel. -
Raha on voolamas naftassse ja energiasektori aktsiatesse tagasi. Toornafta futuur juba +3% $116 tasemel.
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U.S. Sec's Cox says agency will propose new short selling rule in next few weeks; will focus on market wide solutions
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Panen siia üles ka pikema jutu shortimise piiramise ettepaneku kohta:
Follow-up on U.S. SEC's Cox proposal for new short selling rules
As mentioned earlier, Reuters reported the top U.S. securities regulator plans to propose new short selling rules in the next few weeks. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox said on Tuesday that the proposal "will focus on market-wide solutions" but is not intended to have any impact on the direction of prices. Cox also said fails to deliver "were reduced substantially" for the stocks covered under the SEC's recent emergency short selling rule. "It was a very effective order from that standpoint," Cox told reporters after a news conference. The SEC enacted an emergency rule on July 21 that required short sellers to pre-borrow stock in mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) and 17 Wall Street firms such as Goldman Sachs (GS) before executing a short trade. Investors who bet on falling stock prices also have been required to deliver the securities by the settlement date -- obligations that forced Wall Street to change the way they traded those stocks. Short trading in those 19 stocks reverted to rules governing other shares on Aug. 13 as the SEC experiment against abusive short selling expired.
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Turg üritab taastuda, kus finantssektor koos tehnoloogiaga kõrgemale liikunud ning energia koos naftaga eelnevatest tippudest tagasi andnud, kuid LEH püsib edasi päeva põhjade läheduses, üle -10% languses $13.41 tasemel.
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WFC Wells Fargo CEO Stumpf discusses co's balance sheet & level 3 assets on CNBC
WFC CEO on CNBC notes Level 3 assets have no observable prices. Notes they increased those to $33 bln from $21 bln last year -- says half of the increase came from auto loans while the other half came from mortgages that were in Level 2. Says there was no mortgage mkt anymore for jumbos, so they had to move them, and took significant write-downs before moving them. As far as SIVs, CDOs, etc, he says they have no SIVs. Says their last filing talked about $868 mln in CDOs. Notes that they are a $610 bln co, which has 5.5% of assets in level 3 (mostly in auto receivables or mortgage servicing rights) -- says these are very small numbers in the overall scheme of things... Notes that the balance sheet has grown by $125 bln over the past year. Says balance sheet was undersized a year ago because they couldn't find good assets to invest in; notes spreads are better today, with risk finally being priced in to the return. Says the balance sheet is not outsized by any means.
Turg reageerib esialgu korraliku jõnksuga allapoole.
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Fed's Lacker in Bloomberg TV interview says he'd be surprised to see a big bank fail; says he's highly confident in the ability of big commercial banks.
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American Intl: Moody's believes AIG has sufficient liquidity - Bloomberg
Finantssektor surve all, kuid AIG taastub uudise peale päris kenasti -
Sector ETF Late Day Leaders:
Energy- XLE +3.2%, IYE +2.6%, Oil HLDRS- OIH +3.1%, Gold Miners- GDX +2.8%, Gas- UGA +2.8%, Coal- KOL +2.9%, Metals/Mining- XME +2.4%, Steel- SLX +2.0%Sector ETF Late Day Laggards:
Regional Banks- KRE -4.9%, RKH -3.1%, Homebuilders- XHB -4.1%, Commercial Banks- KBE -3.4%, Retail- XRT -3.2%, Financial Services- IYG -3.0%, IAI -2.4%, Finance- XLF -2.6%, IYF -2.7%, REITS- ICF -2.7% -
Turg jätkuvalt õhuke ja käibed jäävad turgudel ka tänasel päeval keskmistele alla, kuid miinused on hirmutavalt suured ja tehniliselt on pilt viimase 3 pävaga üsna koledaks läinud.
