Börsipäev 20. august
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Stronger Oil Will Be an Obvious Challenge
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/20/2008 8:38 AM EDT
Learn to adjust yourself to the conditions you have to endure, but make a point of trying to alter or correct conditions so that they are most favourable to you.
-- William Frederick Book
After being hit hard the last two days, the market is ready for a little relief bounce. A solid earnings report from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and a big bounce in Chinese markets are providing some ammunition for the bulls.
On the negative side of the ledger, the action of the last two days has turned the technical picture quite negative. The uptrend line is broken, and it's going to take some substantial work to repair it.
Adding to the pressure is a renewed prediction by Goldman Sachs that oil will climb back to $149 a barrel. Lower oil has obviously been a big positive for this market lately, and even though we haven't moved that much higher, it has helped to offset some of the worries about inflation.
Interestingly, the Investors Intelligence survey showed a big jump in bullish sentiment. I suspect that this was largely a function of folks buying into the argument that lower oil and a strong dollar would cure all our economic woes. The fact that sentiment jumped and the market has suddenly stalled out is probably not a good sign. It indicates that a lot of people got trapped buying into the strength on Thursday and Friday. This survey was done on Friday, when there was still a warm glow over the benefits of lower commodity prices.
Oil is bouncing strongly as I write, and that is going to be a challenge for this market even if it is oversold technically. An awful lot of hope has been placed on lower oil as a cure-all for this market, and if the bounce continues, it's going to result in a scramble to reposition back out of consumer-related stocks that were viewed as beneficiaries.
It is very important to take a few steps back and look at the big picture of the market, which looks quite problematic. We have bear-market conditions, and the most recent bounce is looking more and more like just another failed bounce. With the bad inflation news yesterday, some recovery in crude oil and continued pressure on financials, it's going to be tough to trust an oversold bounce to last.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PAY +29.5%, OTEX +3.7%, HPQ +3.6%, STP +3.3%... Select metals/mining stocks showing strength: RTP +3.3%, BBL +2.9%, GOLD +2.4%, AUY +2.3% (upgraded to Outperform at RBC), BHP +2.3%, SSL +2.1%, MT +1.5% (acquires Brazilian iron ore miner, London Mining Brazil and acquires Brazilian port facility through partnership with Adriana Resources), GG +1.4% (upgraded to Top Pick at RBC)... Select China names trading higher on light volume following strength in overseas trading (Shanghai index +7.6%): ACH +6.7%, LFC +5.5%, SNP +3.8%, CHL +3.8%... Select solar stocks showing strength boosted by STP results: CSUN +3.6%, SOLF +1.4%, SOL +1.1%... Other news: USEG +24.8% (on light volume following trading halted; signs exploration development and mine operating agreement with Thompson Creek Metals), PDLI +5.2% (the co and Bristol-Myers Squibb enter global alliance to develop novel treatment for multiple myeloma), SYT +2.0% (announces that USDA Approves Syngenta and John Deere for Broadened Biotechnology Endorsement for Corn Crop Insurance), TOT +1.3% (still checking).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NVTL -20.1% (also downgraded to Sell at Piper and downgraded to Hold at Morgan Joseph), JKHY -14.6% (also downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), ARAY -7.5% (light volume), ADI -2.6%, BJ -2.4%... Select airline names ticking lower with crude modestly higher: LCC -5.1%, ALK -4.6%, NWA -3.5%, UAUA -2.3%, CAL -2.0%, DAL -1.9%... Other news: BT -6.3% and BCS -3.6% (trading ex-dividend)... Analyst comments: KSS -1.8% and M -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - Bloomberg). -
Indeksfutuurid indikeerivad USA turgudele kergelt positiivsemat päeva algust. HPQ tulemused annavad toetust tehnoloogiasektorile, kuid turuosaliste pilgud on suunatud siiski finantssektori suunas. Kas finants suudab täna kosuda? LEH on eelturul jällegi -2% languses $12.80 tasemel, ülejäänud finantssektorist enamasti kerges plussis. Toornafta futuurid üle +1.3% tõusus $116.04 barrel tasemel.
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Euroopa ja Aasia põhiindeksid:
Saksamaa DAX +0.32%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.55%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.64%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.10%
Venemaa MICEX +1.83%
Poola WIG -0.28%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.10%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.18%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +7.63%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +7.60%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.58%
Tai Set 50 -0.32%
India Sensex +0.92%
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Finantssektor võiks täna siiski osutuda põrkekandidaadiks ning eile tugevalt tappa saanud LEH oleks ka üsna tõenäoliselt suurimaid liikujaid. Kogused hoiaks väiksed ja stopid üsna ligidale paika panna. Põrke toimumisel oleks vähem riskantsem instrument UYG, juhuks kui FRE,FNM ja LEH ei suuda korralikult põrgata.
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Short STP @ $39.8. Mitte eriti suurelt, vajaduselt avg up. No ei ole need tulemused nii head, üsna mittemidagiütlevad on. Tavaline solarite tulemus.
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jim, mis tähendab 'avg up'?
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Average up. Ehk siis vajadusel võtan ülevalt juurde, et keskmist hinda ülespoole saada - tippu tabada ma ei oska, siis tuleb mitmes jupis võtta, et positsiooni keskmine hind üles viia. Iga kauplemisguru ilmselt ainult oigab sellise tegevuse peale, see pole just kõige ohutum ja parima risk/rewardiga tegevus :)
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Kes LEH-i põrkele panustasid võiks pool possust kinni panna 13.50 pealt.
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jim, 17.35 naftavarude raport, mis võib turu meelsust mõlemas suunas liigutada. Kas hoiad oma positsiooni üle selle või mitte?
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Hoian. Ilmselt alles õhtul vaatan edasi, ei hakka praegu juurde ka võtma.
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Sector ETF First Hour Leaders:
Metals/Mining- XME +3.2%, Coal- KOL +3.0%, Solar Power- TAN +2.6%, KWT +2.0%, Steel- SLX +2.5%, Energy- IYE +2.3%, XLE +2.2%, Oil HLDRS- OIH +2.3%, Materials- IYM +1.8%Sector ETF First Hour Laggards:
Regional Banks- KRE -2.4%, Industrials- XLI -1.2%, Cons. Disct.- XLY -1.0%, Transports- IYT -1.1%, Real Estate- IYR -1.0%, Semis- SMH -0.90%, REITS- ICF -0.90% -
COMDX DOE Inventories: Crude shows massive build
Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 9390K (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 1000K); gasoline inventories had a draw of 6202K (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 3000K); distillate inventories had a build of 481K (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 1000K). -
Teise poole LEH ideest võiks nüüd kinni panna $13.80 pealt, ahneks ei tasu minna.
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Merrill Lynch brokers urge Pimco to buy back auction rate securities- Bloomberg
Merrill brokers call on Blackrock (BLK) to redeem auction rate debt, brokers make requests in emails to Pimco, Blackrock, says email campaign is 'grassroots effort' -
Sector ETF Midday Leaders:
Solar Power- TAN +3.2%, KWT +2.9%, Steel- SLX +2.3%, Ag/Chem- MOO +2.1%, Metals/Mining- XME +2.0%, Energy- IYE +1.6%, XLE +1.4%, Materials- IYM +1.5%Sector ETF Midday Laggards:
Regional Banks- KRE -3.0%, Silver- SLV -1.8%, Gas- UGA -1.2%, Gold- GLD -1.2%, Healthcare- IHF -1.1%, Real Estate- IYR -1.1%, REITS- ICF -0.90%, Commodities- GSG -1.1%, Oil- USO -1.0% -
PIMCO's Bill Gross says with FRE and FNM at $3 and $4 respectively, the market is valuing these cos at zero
Gross says at this point they are perpetual options that effectively use a strike price of $0 for the common stock. (FNM, FRE) -
Fed's Stern says most financial institutions remain in reasonably good health
Fed's Stern: Not 'appropriate time' to close Fannie Freddie- Bloomberg -
Finantssektor on kergelt Sterni kõnest toetust saanud, kuigi FRE ja FNM on jätkuvalt ligi -30% languses.
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Hea ajastus. Turu tehniline pilt hakkas juba väga karuseks kiskuma.
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Päev pole veel läbi, ei maksa rõõmustada liiga vara:)
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Täna pärast sulgemist avaldab tulemused Salesforce.com (CRM), kellest oleme lähemalt kirjutanud LHV Pro all. Ootused on kindlasti kõrged ja eksimusi andeks ei anta, sest alates 2004. aastal toimunud IPO-st ei ole Salesforce´i tulemused kordagi analüütikute ootustele alla jäänud.
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Cuomo tegi inv.pankade suunas avalduse, mis kindlasti muudab finantsi veelgi närvilisemaks:
Cuomo urges brokers to buy back auction-rate debt, tells broker association there is some proof of fraud - Bloomberg
