Börsipäev 3. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Ospraie Management on New Yorgi investeerimisfirma, mis kunagi oli USA suurim toorainetele keskenduv hedge-fond. Tänaseks ollakse aga jõutud faasi, kus ettevõtte suurim fond on panustanud toorainete hindade valele suunale ning sulgeb seetõttu uksed. The Ospraie Fund on augustis kukkunud 26.7% ja aasta algusest 38.6%.
Usutavasti hakkab sellised teateid tulema ka mujalt sektorist, kuna panustajaid toorainete ja sealhulgas nafta hinna (kuigi Ospraie panustas peamiselt põllumajanduse futuuride liikumisele) edasisele tõusule jätkus rohkesti. Viimaste kuude jooksul on hind aga oma tippudest kõvasti langenud, kaubeldes $108 juures barreli eest. Nõudlus on vähenenud, sentiment on muutunud ning pakun, et kui mingit katastroofi just ei juhtu, ei näe me nafta hinna uut tippu vähemalt kolm aastat. -
Ospraie Fondist kuulub 20% Lehman Brothersile. Ka Credit Suisse on sinna päris mahukalt varasid paigutanud.
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Kusjuures see 20% on sees paketis, mida LEH püüab lisakapitali vastu maha parseldada. Seepärast ka LEHi järelturu kukkumine.
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LEH olukord muutub üha raskemaks. CNBC andmeil peaks pärast USA sulgemist LEH oma edaspidiseid plaane selgitama.
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2008 aasta madalaim EUR/USD tase 1.4364 pärineb 22. jaanuarist ... tänane päeva põhi seni 1.4384 .. vaid 20 bp veel minna
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USDi tõus on tõesti järsk olnud, kahe kuuga on 1.60 alt 1.44 lähedale liigutud. Kuigi USA majandustsükkel on euroalast ees ning intressimäärade vahe eurotsooniga (hoolimata ECB sõnavõttudest inflatsiooni kohta) hakkab vähenema, tundub see tõus liiga kiire. Ehk toimub nüüd mõningane rahunemine ja kurss stabiliseerub enne järgmist tõusu uuel tasemel.
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Äkki homme:
ECB Press Conference
Crude Oil Inventories
FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
jms. naljakas killuke... -
Mis nüüd energia hindadesse ja hedge-fundidesse puutub... siis üks ulakas spekulatsioon käib turgudel ringi ka nafta ja Goldman Sachsi (GS) teemadel. Keegi ei oska täna öelda, kuidas on end positsioneerinud Wall Streeti viimase aja üks suurimaid naftapulle GS, kes veel loetud päevad/nädalad tagasi kinnitas oma $150list sihti ja vahepeal laululinnu kombel siristas: "$200line hind on tulemas, $200line hind on tulemas." Kui nüüd väga kangekaelselt on jäädud oma long-oil teooria juurde, siis trading lossi on viimastel nädalatel küll korralikult genereeritud.
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(GS) Goldman Sachs: Asset price declines and spreads widening; Credit Suisse lowers Q3 and FY08 ests
Credit Suisse is lowering their Q3 ests on GS to $1.50 (consensus $2.19) from $2.15 (lowerd a few weeks ago), and lowering their FY08 to $13.50 from $14.50 (consensus $14.78). Firm cites the cost of asset price declines/spread widening across all products through to the end of August with weaker trading volumes and little in the way of investment banking activity.
GS eelturul $163.70 tasemel -0.98% languses. -
Green Mtn Coffeen (GMCR) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Stifel
GMCRi osas oleme ka Pro all negatiivsed, kuigi seni on idee olnud üleval neutraalsena. Viimase aja tõusu järel oleme aga lühikeseks müügi aluseid uuesti üle vaatamas. Tänane downgrade peaks piisavalt kurja tegema, praegu oleksin müügipoolel.
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Morgan Stanley oli esimene, Credit Suisse siis nüüd järgi. 27. augustil langetas MS oma kvartali kasumiprognoosi GS'ile $3.00 pealt $1.65le. Tol hetkel oli konsensus $2.80, nüüd on konsensus kõigest loetud päevadega alla kolisenud $2.19 peale. Credit Suisse siis MSist veelgi skeptilisem GSi tulevaste numbrite osas.
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Saksamaa DAX -0.55%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.39%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.63%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.21%
Venemaa MICEX -2.73%
Poola WIG -0.25%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.64%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.17%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.23%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.11%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.97%
Tai Set 50 -1.78%
India Sensex N/A (börs suletud)
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Pick an Approach to Trade This Market
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/3/2008 8:30 AM EDT
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who don't believe, no proof is possible. --Traditional Saying
On Tuesday, the market confounded many bulls by reversing downward and losing around 300 points, even though crude oil prices were down sharply. That is at odds with the hopeful thinking that lower energy and commodity prices will energize consumers, boost spending and bring a halt to our economic woes.
Unfortunately, the reality seems to be that lower oil comes with a price. That price is a weak international economy. For much of the year, oil and commodities were driven by strong demand in China, India, Brazil and other emerging economies. Now it is becoming clear that they are seeing some substantial slowing, just like we have been seen in the U.S. for a while now.
So now what? One approach, as illustrated by Jim Cramer, is to stick to the thesis that lower oil and better action in financials and homebuilders means that we should anticipate that the worst is over and put on substantial long positions. Jim has given us numerous posts lately about why it's time to be bullish and anticipate better market action ahead.
My approach to the market is quite different. I try not to anticipate, but to let the market be my guide. I want to react and become more aggressive as the action improves rather than hope that weak action will come to an end and turn back up.
Right now when I look at the charts of the major indices, I see no reason to believe that the bear market is near an end. I see weak charts struggling to hold on to support. More importantly, when I review the charts of individual stocks, I see little if any leadership. There are no groups jumping up and leading the charge. In fact, the best potential leaders, such as technology, are doing nothing.
You can always craft a very compelling bullish or bearish thesis for the market. In fact, at any time, you are going to find equally brilliant arguments for both sides of the market. Rather than just embrace one side or the other, I want the market to tell me who is right. If this market is really out of the woods and ready to begin a substantial rally, it will be quite evident.
Presently, the price action does not indicate that conditions are bullish. That might change, and if it does, then I'll be happy to be a bit late to the party. In the meantime, I see no good reason, other than hope, for holding substantial long positions.
We have a weak start shaping up this morning, even though oil is down once again. Overseas markets are mostly weak, and we don't have much news on the wires.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SNDA +3.8%... M&A news: CPS 2.1% (CFIUS completes review of proposed ChoicePoint acquisition; determined there are no unresolved national security concerns)... Select mortgage-related names showing strength following ABK news and metrics: ABK +12.4% (confirms regulatory approval for Connie Lee capital contribution; also releases selected monthly data for July 2008), RDN +4.9%, PMI +1.4%... Select airlines ticking higher with continued weakness in crude: UAUA +3.1%, CAL +3.1%, RYAAY +2.9%, JBLU +2.8%, LCC +2.3%, AAI +1.5%... Other news: MDVN +28.7% (Medivation and Pfizer enter into global agreement to co-develop and market Dimebon for the treatment of Alzheimer's and Huntington's Diseases), NBIX +13.5% (announces successful Elagolix PETAL study in endometriosis; phase II study meets primary bone mineral density and secondary efficacy), CSIQ +5.1% (Canadian Solar and GCL Silicon announce supply contracts), GILT +4.2% (still checking), KRY +4.2% (says in discussions with MIBAM regarding Revemin mill), SIGA +3.7% (awarded $55 mln by Federal Government to develop broader applications for its lead drug candidate ST-246), CLNE +3.7% (Cramer on CNBC says that Nancy Pelosi, Democratic speaker of the House, is a shareholder of CLNE), LEH +1.4% (WSJ reports Ospraie closes largest fund as commodity losses swell; also Reuters reports that HSBC, China Bank also interested in Lehman)... Analyst comments: THC +3.3% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), BP +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), X +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at CIBC).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GLW -7.7%, CAG -7.7% (also downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan and downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Merrill), JOYG -4.2%, DCI -4.1%, WFR -2.8%... Select metals/mining names showing continued weakness: HL -5.7%, BBL -5.0%, ACH -5.0%, BHP -4.9%, RTP -3.2%, AAUK -2.1%, MT -1.5%... Other news: FRX -8.3% (reports Ph. III clinical studies of aclidinium bromide vs placebo in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), RTIX -7.8% (still checking), EXM -4.4% and DRYS -2.6% (the Baltic Dry Index continues to fall, dropping 320 points to close at 6,146 overnight), NOK -3.6% (still checking), FNM -3.1% and FRE -2.5% (Chinese banks cut Fannie, Freddie debt - WSJ), SHPGY -2.3% (still checking)... Analyst comments: BCS -3.3% (downgraded to Sell at RBS - Reuters), MFE -3.3% (downgraded to Underperform at FBR), PVH -2.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), TWX -1.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), TOT -1.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman- DJ). -
Muideks... XHB ja housing'u teemadel oleme tuliseid vaidlusi siin foorumites korduvalt maha pidanud. Goldman Sachs'i jaemüügikonverentsil on Home Depot tegevdirektor ütlemas, et "oleme väga lähedale jõudnud/jõudmas kinnisvaraturu põhja suhtes". Lühikeseksmüügi guru Doug Kass on seda seisukohta täna ka toetamas, kuid üritab üleliigset optimismi jahutada sellega, et Home Depot CEO ei ole vastanud küsimusele, et kui kiire saab olema kinnisvaraturu taastumine põhja saavutamise järel.
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Njah, GMCR on -2% pealt kukkunud -10% peale, ehk tundub tänaseks aitavat. Loodan juba, et tuleb mingi ime läbi natuke üles tagasi, saaks ka idee võimalikuks avamiseks parema lähtekoha.
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(FNM) Fannie Mae sells $1 bln 3-mo bills at 2.553 pct vs 2.580 pct rate for $1 bln 3-mo sale on Aug 27 - Reuters
Sells $1 bln 6-mo bills at 2.858 pct vs 2.870 pct rate for $1 bln 6-mo sale on Aug 27
Aktsia kosub päris kenasti, hetkel juba positiivsele poolele trügimas. -
July Factory Orders +1.3% vs +1.0% consensus, prior revised to +2.1% from +1.7%
Turg saab tuge juurde. -
Mis halva uudise peale küll NOK uusi 52w põhju teeb?
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Käive on nokia (NOK) puhul täna väga suur, kas on kusagilt mingi uudis tilkumas?
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NOK 'i tõmbab see alla CNBC sõnutsi:
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/09/03/qualcomm-cell-phone-replacement-cycle-lengthening/ -
Solar ja muu põllumajanduslik kraam kukub nagu nuga. Finants püsib tugev veel tublilt.
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Venelased sõlmisid ketserite (eestlased) ja faśistidega (eestlased) vastastikuse mõistmise lepingu. Memorandum of Understanding between the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (the Bank of Russia) and the Estonian Financial Supervision Authority (EFSA). Kus oh kus on herr Putini silmad :D
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Finants samuti juba kaotanud tugevust XLF $1.76 +0.18%, ehitajad veel püsivad XHB $20.36 +0.30%, kuid kauaks?
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Jällegi laiapõhjaline müük kõikides sektorites ning väga nõrk turg.
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Fed's Rosengren say low federal funds rate provides much less stimulus than usual during credit crunch
Says US economy expected to soften in second half 2008, so jobless rate could rise above 6% -
Midday ETF Strength:
Regional Banks- KRE +3.2%, RKH +0.40%, Retail- XRT +1.2%, Commercial Banks- KBE +0.80%, Base Metals- DBB +0.50%, Financial Srvc- IYG +0.40%, IAI +0.30%Midday ETF Weakness:
Coal- KOL -7.5%, Solar Power- KWT -5.4%, TAN -5.2%, Gold Miners- GDX -5.0%, Metals/Mining- XME -4.3%, Oil HLDRS- OIH -3.5%, Steel- SLX -3.5%, Semis- SMH -3.3%, IGW -3.5%, Ag/Chem- MOO -3.3% -
(DELL) Dell CEO says seeing "a lot of growth" in financial services sector; can boost profitability of consumer pc business "a lot" higher - Reuters
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Peaksid DELL puhul veidi background infot ka pakkuma, mis asi selle peale ost oli või on.
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Hetkel üldine tehnoloogia nõrkus teeks sektori treidide pakkumise väga raskeks. DELL uudise peale marginaalselt kosunud.
Pigem arvaks, et GOOG võib üsna head treidi pakkuda lõpetades päeva kõrgematel tasemetel kui hetkel kaupleb. -
(DRYS) Dryship Inc. võiks olla paari päeva põrkekandidaat, kuna on tulemustejärgselt tugevalt müüki näinud, samas polnud tulemused nii hullud. Hetkel kaupleb $64.02 tasemel, -6.92% languses.
Tegemist siiski üsna volatiilse aktsiaga ning kogused hoiaks väiksed. -
Fed says 'almost all' districts see price pressures
Fed Districts see 'near term' demand for business loans
Fed says mortgage loan demand 'weakening'
Fed beige book says U.S 'economic activity has been slow'
Fed districts see 'moderate' wage pressures as hiring slows
Fed areas report 'slow' consumer spending, manufacturing drop
Turg tegi esimese reageeringuna tugeva jõnksu alla, kuid juba üritatakse taastuda. -
Panen siia väljavõtte Beige Bookist:
Summary of Fed's Beige Book: Reports indicate economic activity has been slow in most Districts
Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that the pace of economic activity has been slow in most Districts. Many described business conditions as "weak," "soft," or "subdued." Cleveland and St. Louis reported some weakening since their last reports while Boston and New York noted signs of stabilization. Kansas City reported a slight improvement. Consumer spending was reported to be slow in most Districts, with purchasing concentrated on necessary items and retrenchment in discretionary spending. Districts reporting on auto sales described them as falling or steady at low levels. Tourism activity was mixed but received support from international visitors in several Districts, and the demand for services eased in most Districts. The transportation industry was also adversely affected by rising fuel costs. Manufacturing activity declined in most Districts but improved somewhat in Minneapolis and Kansas City. Most Districts reported that residential real estate markets remained soft. Commercial real estate activity was slow in most Districts, and some reported further slackening in demand for office and retail space. Most Districts reported easing loan demand, especially for residential mortgages and consumer loans; lending to businesses was mixed. Districts reporting on the agricultural sector noted some relief from drought conditions. Districts reporting on energy and mining activity recorded increased activity. Almost all Districts continued to report price pressures from elevated costs of energy, food, and other commodities, although some noted that there have been declines or slower increases in prices for several industrial commodities and energy products. Business contacts in a number of Districts indicated that they had increased selling prices in response to the high costs for their inputs. Wage pressures were characterized as moderate by most Districts amid a general pullback in hiring, although several Districts noted continued strong demand for workers in the energy sector... Consumer spending was slow in most Districts. Retail sales and other consumer spending was reported as mixed or little changed in Boston, Chicago, St. Louis, and Dallas and weak or declining in Philadelphia, Richmond, Minneapolis, and San Francisco... Labor market conditions were unchanged or somewhat softer in most Districts compared with the last report. Wage increases were typically characterized as moderate.
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Paistab, et hetkelist tugevust kasutatakse ikkagi müügiks ning turg jälle tugevalt allapoole tulnud.
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JPMORGAN analyst cuts Q3 handset mkt forecast to 303 mln from 310 mln units - Reuters
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S&P doesn't see "massive" rating downgrades of U.S. regional banks - Reuters
Regionaalpangad saavad veelgi tuge, KRE +3.26% $3.88 tasemel. -
Föderaalreservi Beež raamat midagi uut ei sisalda. Pigem ollakse konservatiivset joont hoidmas ja see aasta ilmselt intressimäärasid ei puudutata.
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Joy Global (JOYG) on 20% all @ 52.85. Täna olid tulemused, mis olid oodatust veidi nõrgemad aga orders oli palju tugevamad, kui oodatud.
Siit tasuks proovida põrget mängida. Ma usun, et analüütikud homme kaitsevad seda. 55-56 on reaalne siht.
In case kedagi huvitab. -
JOYG tundub üsna huvitav jah, kuid natuke teeb ärevaks spekulatiivse raha sisse/välja vool, mis käibestki üsna hästi näha.
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Ma olen ise tiba pikk JOYG-s, kuigi valmis ka selleks, et kukub veel veidi. Rohkem selline näpuharjutus.
JOYG tundus mulle eelturu 62.5 juures ka hea ost. Peale seda pidin peale avanemist 60 kandist juurde võtma (61.6 kesk), et 62 kandis midagigi teenida. Sealt kukkus 10(!) dollarit.
Üldiselt on turgudel praegu ikka päris jubedad ajad.
Long veel DELL (21 avrg) ja BTU (54 avrg). -
DELL peaks üsna kindel bet olema. Juhul kui teh taastub peaks DELL olema tõusjate esireas.
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Eelnevalt väljapakutud GOOG käitub jällega väga raskena nagu viimased nädalad on näidanud. $460.40 päeva põhi siiski veel peab, kui sellest peaks läbi vajuma on aasta põhajde testimiseks $412.11 vaba tee.
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JOYGi puhul muretsetakse tõenäoliselt, et capasity laiendamisega minnakse liiale ning toorainete hinnalanguse juures (kuigi pressikas viidatakse tugevatele spot-hindadele...) kukuvad ka mingi hetkel orderid oluliselt. Ja hoolimata tugevast orderbookist prognoose sisuliselt ei tõstetud. Lisaks ei ole aktsia just väga odavalt hinnatud. Samas homse vastu ei vaidle, 20% tundub tõesti liiast.
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No DELL kaupleb mingi 10x 2009 kasumit ja keskmine analüütiku hinnasiht on ca 30% kaugusel, mis on nii large cap tehnoloogia puhul veidi liig. Viimased tulemused polnud nii koledad ja ei vääri sellist 20% kukkumist nagu me nüüd nägime. Ma olen 1/2 pt kaugusel turuhinnast oma keskmisega.
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Tegin isegi JOYG idee kiirelt kaasa 55 strikega sept call-idega, sisenemine 1.50/ välja 1.90 +26%.
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Late Day ETF Strength:
Regional Banks- KRE +3.6%, RKH +1.0%, Retail- XRT +2.0%, Commercial Banks- KBE +1.4%, Financial Srvc- IYG +1.2%, IAI +1.2%, Finance- XLF +1.1%, IYF +1.1%, REITS- ICF +1.0%, Insurance Brokers- KIE +0.80%
Late Day ETF Weakness:
Coal- KOL -7.7%, Solar Power- TAN -5.1%, KWT -5.0%, Gold Miners- GDX -4.8%, Metals/Mining- XME -4.3%, Semis- IGW -4.4%, SMH -4.0%, Steel- SLX -3.5%, Ag/Chem- MOO -2.7%, Oil HLDRS- OIH -2.8%
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(LEH) kiire spike taga oli siis selline uudis:
Lehman Brothers: CNBC commentator says sources say that HSBC may be interested in taking a stake in Lehman or buying all of it. -
dell ei olnudki täna nii "kindel bet", päeva lõpus hoopis madalaim tase...
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Mul on tunne, et kui miskit on "sure bet", siis on asi kahtlane. Mõnikord tundub turg täiesti ebaratsionaalne, võta siis kinni.
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DELL ei olnud päevakauplemise ideena välja pakutud, pigem mõne nädala horisondiga ja seda juhul kui tehnoloogia peaks taastuma. Tehnoloogia taastumise puhul peaks olema DELL üks kiiremaid taastujaid.
