Börsipäev 8. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Nädalavahetusel on USA börsil toimunud väga olulisi sündmusi. Nimelt on USA valitsus lõpuks ametlikuks teinud plaani võtta FNM ja FRE valitsuse kontrolli alla. Selleks ostetakse paarisaja miljardi eest ettevõtete aktsiaid, lahti lastakse senised tegevdirektorid ja FNM ja FRE aktsiate omanikud jäävad 'lahjendaise' järel võrdlemisi pikkade ninadega. Soovitan lugeda näiteks Bloombergi artiklit siin.
Kui juba reedeõhtusel järelturul hakkasid aktsiaturud agressiivselt uudiste peale ülespoole liikuma, lootes, et valitsuse selline plaan aitab krediidi ja kinnisvaraturu probleemidest nüüd lõpuks ikkagi üle saada, siis praeguseks on ralli veelgi edasi läinud ning indeksid on eelturul 3% (!) plusspoolel.
Kinnisvarasektori jaoks on see lahendus igaljuhuhul kindlasti positiivne ja LHV Pro idee XHB saab siit korralikku toetust. Samuti märgiks siinkohal ära, et ettevõtteks, kes valiti USA valitsust nõustama FNM ja FRE saatuse üle, oli Morgan Stanley (MS) - ka hiljutine LHV Pro idee. See demonstreerib taas, et tugevamad ettevõtted on need, kes leiavad tööd ja võtavad turuosa ka rasketel aegadel.
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Ma arvaks küll, et 3% gap müüakse vähemalt mingis osas täna täis.
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jyriado ... kas Sinu lühike positsioon räägib Sinu eest?
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Morgan Stanley alustab Genzyme'i (GENZ) katmist Overweight soovitusega ning hinnasihiks antakse $94. Kõrge hinnasiht tuleneb MSi usust, et 2009. aastast edasi suudab ettevõte turu prognoose ületada, kuna lüsomaalsete säilitus/ladestus haiguste (core lysosomal storage disease) üksusel läheb oodatust paremini. Samuti lisatakse:
"We expect upside to be driven by 1)increasing estimates as the Street gets closer to our view; 2) potential multiple expansion, as GENZ is at a discount vs. peers, even though it is the second fastest-growing large cap biotech company; and 3) a favorable macro environment."
Antud sektor ei kuulu just mu lemmikute hulka ning pole ka selle ettevõtte tegevusega eriti kursis, aga MSi note tundub huvitav ja äkki võib pakkuda trade'i. Keegi GENZiga rohkem kursis foorumlane võiks sõna võtta.
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Huvitav, et sellise tugeva turu taustal Nokia uuesti väikesesse miinusesse vajunud kuigi oli päeva jooksul ka tugevas plussis. JPM värskelt hinnasihti 11 euro peale langetanud.
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Henno, ei oma positsioone. Veel.
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Merrill Lynch tõstab Lehman Brothersi (LEH) soovituse neutraalse peale ning soovitab Goldman Sachsi (GS) osta.
Samal ajal kärbib Oppenheimer GSi kolmanda kvartali EPSi prognoose $1.55-ni (varasem $2.15) ning neljanda kvartali prognoose $3.45-ni (varasem $4.35):
"The firm says the primary drivers for these revisions are customer volumes, overall weak global equity markets, a highly challenging trading environment, and weak advisory and underwriting revenues. "
Kuigi pikaajaliselt võib Oppenheimeril õigus olla, siis täna ujutakse vastuvoolu. Merrilli upgrade ning tugev turg muid variante eriti ei jäta.
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Nagu oodatud, on Altria (MO) ja Ust (UST) sõlminud lepingu USTi aktsiate müümiseks $69.5 eest ehk kokku maksab Altria $11.7 miljardit. Hind ei ole kõige odavam ning loodetavasti suudab Altria leida piisavalt sünergiat ning oma turundusvõimsuse abil ka USTi põhitoodete Copenhageni ja Skoali müüginumbreid suurendada.
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Morgan Stanley energia osas positiivseks muutumas:
In July, we did move Energy down to neutral from overweight and Financials up to a small overweight (through Insurance) from underweight. Now, with the oil price down ~30% from the peak, and with the Energy sector having underperformed by more than 10%, we think it is time to buy the Energy sector back again. -
Merrill says U.S stocks poised to outperform over next 6-12 months, cites stable growth, strengthening dollar for U.S view, cites rising M&A activity, declining commodity prices- Bloomberg
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Panen siia väikese lõigu täna Tony Crescenzi sulest, kes RealMoney all kirjutab ja makroteemasid minu silmis väga hästi jagab. Tony jutt raha võimalikust tagasivoolust USA börsidele maailma erinevatelt turgudelt on koos mõistlike turu hinnatasemetega (kasutades konservatiivseid prognoose) just need põhjused, mis ei luba meil tänastel tasemetel pikaajalist permakaru/jääkaru positsiooni võtta ja mida oleme viimaste kuude investeerimiskomiteede ülevaadetes LHV Pro all ka rõhutanud. Tony seisukoht järgmine:
After an initial hit, the bailout of the GSEs will help keep the dollar's rally intact, which is extremely important to the economic outlook given the benefit that the economy will reap from the decline in commodity prices. Moreover, I believe that the dollar rally is creating vast pent-up investment dollars for riskier assets, as vast sums of cross-border capital flows have been directed to the U.S. of late. I believe there is the potential for a very large rally in share prices as a result of the capital flows. Seen another way, any decline that occurs in share prices will be reduced by the infusion of capital from abroad, as the world is now in the midst of a massive unwinding of commodity-linked investments, which for many reasons benefit the dollar more than most other major currencies.
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Nunuh, GENZi osas ei taha keegi sõna võtta. Eelturul saaks positsiooni võtta $78.15 alt ehk 2.6% reedesest sulgemishinnast kõrgemal. Tugeva turu ja MSi upgrade'i najal peaks vast rohkem suutma. Aga üsna huupi pakun.
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GENZ on init, Madis. Mitte upgrade.
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See eufooria FRE ja FNM ümber on pisut veider. Ma saan aru, et pingeid kruviti maha, aga ega see nüüd mingi uudis pole, et stockiomanikud jäävad pika ninaga mõlemal juhul - valitsuse abita või valitsuse abiga. Üldsus on kuidagi überpositiivses meeleolus ja kõik tõuseb veel 2-5%? Hmm...
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Hakkan FNM katma, aga ilmselt tuleb veel allapoole.
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jep enek, teises postis tuli kirjutamisel viga sisse.
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Saksamaa DAX +3.27%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +4.66%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +3.81%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +4.35%
Venemaa MICEX +2.76%
Poola WIG +1.97%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +3.38%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +4.32%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.67%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -4.04%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +3.95%
Tai Set 50 +3.65%
India Sensex +3.18%
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FNM kaetud, keskmine $1.20. Usun endiselt, et kukub veel rohkem, aga see ei muuda eriti enam asja :)
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Let the Price Action Be Your Guide
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/8/2008 8:42 AM EDT
The three great lies: "Of course I'll respect you in the morning,' 'The check is in the mail,' and "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you."
--Herschel Chicowitz
The bailout of Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) is producing a huge opening gap this morning. Many market players are celebrating this shoring up the financial sector, but there are still plenty of doubts out there that this move is going to bring the mortgage crisis to an end.
I'll let others argue over whether or not this action will bring an end to the bear market. While it is certainly refreshing to see someone do something, I'm very skeptical that this will be the cure for all our ills. However, rather than try to sort out the ultimate impact of this bailout, I will let the price action be my guide to the market. As soon as this initial excitement wears off, the market is going to let us know pretty fast if it embraces the idea that a major market turn is at hand.
First, let's put this opening move in perspective. The gap up is going to take the major indices where they were just two trading days ago on last Wednesday. Technically, we are still under the highs of just last week, and the giant move isn't enough to even break the downtrend lines.
It certainly is possible that we will gain some traction and bounce further, but we need to see the S&P 500 back over the 1300 area and the Nasdaq back over 2400 before we can even start to consider that the technical patterns are improving. We have a start with this gap, but have a ways to go.
The biggest problem is the same one I've been complaining about for a while, which is that we have few, if any, positive charts for individual stocks. Financials have been the best sector lately, and are going to be even better after this open, but if you are trying to find good individual chart setups, it's a wasteland out there.
Unfortunately, a big gap up like we are seeing this morning doesn't cure that situation. It is merely a start, and it is only after we hold up and do some backing and filling that promising buys start to develop.
In fact, the gap up we are seeing this morning is very likely to attract short-sellers and stuck longs at least initially. If the bulls can prove that this is for real, we might see some short-squeezes and performance anxiety develop, but a quick failure of this bounce is going to embolden bears and scare some bottom callers.
We had a similar type open last Tuesday that ended quite badly, and it's going to be very interesting to see how the market reacts this time, especially as the skeptics broadcast their concerns.
I'm coming into the day with almost 100% cash, so I have little choice but to wait and see how things develop. If I was holding a lot of positions, I would be taking some partial profits, but I'm not, so I'm staying patient and watching for signs as to how much juice the bulls have.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HITK +6.7%... M&A news: GEHL +114% (to be acquired by Manitou for $30/share); NCEM +35% (to be acquired for $13.37 per share by Calypso Acquisition Corp), UST +1.0% (confirms it will be acquired by Altria for $69.50 per share in cash)... Financials, homebuilders and other mortgage related stocks are trading sharply higher on the Treasury's plan to take control of FNM & FRE: WM +24.1% (announces new CEO and Memorandum of Understanding with the Office of Thrift Supervision), PMI +22.9%, SCA +20.4%, BBX +19.5%, ABK +16.2%, NLY +15.5%, RDN +14.8%, RF +14.6% (also upgraded at FBR), UCBH +13.2%, WB +13.1%, TGIC +12.2%, CMO +11.5%, HOV +10.9%, BZH +10.8%, AIG +10.8%, C +9.5%, TOL +8.3%, LEH +7.4% (LEH in fresh shake-up of top executives - FT.com, ests also cut at Oppenheimer), MER +6.7% (ests cut at Oppenheimer), GS +4.9% (ests cut at Oppenheimer), etc... Other news: BPAX +14.7% (announces positive oral contraceptive clinical results), DFS +5.5% (profiled in Barron's Online), RIMM +4.2% (upgraded at Morgan Keegan).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: AUTH -29.8%... FNM & FRE are halted in pre-mkt trading, but dropped sharply in after-hours on Friday following Treasury's plan to take control of the two cos: FNM -21.9% on Friday night, FRE -20.8% on Friday night... Other news: BIOD -55.3% (announced preliminary results of pivotal Phase III clinical trials for VIAject), BKUNA -16.8% (announced that it has been reclassified to adequately capitalized from well-capitalized), SOV -10.9% (mentioned as a name with exposure to FRE/FNM preferred stock), DSL -10%. -
Tundub, et Jim saab aasta tehingu tiitli omale.
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Hakkame gap-i täitma? Paistab küll väga sedamoodi :)
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Ja ühtlasi müüsin ära ka AKS ja BUCY callid, jäin liiga kauaks passima ja ei saanud enam nii head hinda. AKS callid @ $3.50 ja BUCY @ $5.60. Müük on tagasi. Mõtlen väikse shordi peale ka, aga ei hakka praegu õnnega mängima vist ikkagi.
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Freddie Mac sells $1 bln 3-mo bills at 2.100% rate vs 2.568% rate for $1 bln 3-mo bill sale on Sept 2 - Reuters (1.55 -3.57)
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AKS ajastus küll kõige parem ei olnud :)
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AKS mingi uudis,et selliselt hyppas?
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09:50am AKS Hearing vague takeover chatter circulating
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Short natuke WM @ $3.81. Ma arvan, et umbusk nende booki vastu on ka kannatada saanud. A ilmselgelt jäin sellega hiljaks, nii et ilmselt katan varsti. Ei ole high conviction trade ka.
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Linnuke kirjas airlines sektorist:
United Airlines files for Ch. 11 to cut costs by 20% -
Ja long UAUA ka $5.4 pealt.
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Loogika - Ch11 on tehtud kulude kärpimiseks, mitte sellepärast, et maksejõuetus oleks. Seega on see pigem hea.
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Ja väljas UAUA, keskmiselt natuke üle kahe punkti kasumit aktsia pealt.
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Tere! Selline küsimus, et mis te arvate kuidas hakkab FRE aktsia nüüd lähipäevil käituma, kas hakkab tõusma või jääbki sinna 1 dollari kanti seisma?
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mina arvan, et jääbki sinna 1 dollari kanti seisma
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UAUA treidid võidakse tühistada...
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uaua sees 4ga ja ei müünud kuna võidakse tühistada
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UAUA rumori peale 12-3 taalani??
Crazy market! -
CNBC ütleb et 4a vana lugu? irw. uskumatu
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Cover WM @ $3.71.
UAUA sarnased asjad on jah natuke nigelad. Oht on see, et tühistatakse ainult üks pool tehingust ja pärast olen hoopis short ja 1-2 punkti vee all. -
SEC INVESTIGATION COMING
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;D UAUA case on päris naljakas ju. Posted in error ;D
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ARCA tühistabki treidid.
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(LEH) Lehman Brothers: CNBC commentator says there is a growing likelyhood Neuberger Berman will be sold as LEH is having a hard time raising cash
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mulle öeldi, et minu inet tehingud jäävad alles
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wow? mis hinnaga?
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kõik vist jäävadki alles hoopis, congrats:)
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4.3
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Huvitav kas need ka selle otsusega rahul on ,kellel kuskil stopid 3$ peal olid:)
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Samas AMR tegi ka korraliku jõnksu.Keegi AMR ei mänginud?
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Pimco's Bill Gross thinks the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was the right thing to do and says this will help cushion the downside of falling housing prices
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Fed's Fisher expects very weak economy over next several quarters; U.S. to be back up to cruising speed some time in 2009 - Reuters
Fed's Fisher says no question the economy is weakening - Reuters
