Börsipäev 18. september
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Tere varahommikust kaaskodanikud!
Täna tuleb loodetavasti täiesti tavaline böripäev!
Karud ja hundid on söönud. Lambad on alles ja lehmad on ka paigal.
Mitmes päiv see nüüd oligi? -
Treaderi hinnainfo maas.
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NIKKEI 11,324.67 -425.12 -3.62%
HANG SENG 16,482.96 -1,154.23 -6.31% -
Mul on plaanis täna VTB aktsiaid Venemaalt juurde osta, aga portfelli võimendus piiipeal. (ca 50% peal).
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Saad sa VTB raamatupidamisest sotti et julged osta?
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Singapore's GIC vaatab MS'i, kõikvõimalikke selliseid kuulukaid tuleb kindlasti veel. Kasvanud M&A aktiivsus mingis sektoris (praegu siis USA pangandussektoris) võiks olla turule pikapeale positiivne.
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Tugevam kuulukas oli see, et huvitub Hiina pank Citic. Esmalt oli Wachovia huvist juttu, kuid Citici huvi oli väidetavalt tugevam. Asjalood praegu nii, et MS CEO pidada konservatiivset joont hoidma ja eeskätt hoidma lahti variandi täiendava kapitali kaasamiseks mingil moel või väikese osa müümise uuele investorile. Kui aktsiahind peaks veel langema, võtab agressiivsema joone.
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Bankrun'i oht ? a la Bear Sterns
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LLOYDS ostab HBOS-i 12,2 miljardi naela eest, aktsia eest makstakse 232 penni, eile sulgus aktsia tasemel 147 penni. Ehk aitab see teade turgudel veidi rahuneda.
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HSBC has been cited as a possible buyer of U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley broadcaster CNBC reported.
Ehk siis ka MS võimalike kosilaste ring laieneb -
Paistab, et MICEX kauplemist ei alustanud. Annan teada kui midagi muutub.
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Venelased on jaanalindude kombed vägagi omaks võtnud. Pea liiva alla ja asi vask.
Laseks börsil ära krahhida, oleksid kõik või sees - nii need, kes oma rahast lõpuks lahti on saanud kui ka need, kes selles madinas lõpuks ellu jäävad. See pole ju lõppude lõpuks gruusia :)) -
Ehk teeb Venemaa nagu Hiina, külmutab börsil hinnad ära:)
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Täna lõhkeb langusmull.
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Aga mis saab AIG-st?
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kui MS'l õnnestuks piisavalt usaldusväärselt huvi olemasolu genereerida, siis võib see iseenesest juba spreadid kokku, aktsia üles saada. Mis omakorda võimaldaks ehk üldse kapitali kaasamist vältida. Kst.
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TaivoS: CIC pigem, neil on juba mingi osalus.
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CIC oli kolmas variant. Neil mingi 9,9% vms osalus tõepoolest juba ka.
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fed valmis veelgi rahaga aitama, Rogoffi arvates peaks tulema "$1,000bn bail-out" kokkuvõttes (või siis kogemata kombel 2, mis seal vahet).
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Meinstriimmeedia paneb hullu...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/worst-yet-come-investment-strategist/story.aspx?guid=%7B55B21789%2D3A26%2D495A%2DB0D3%2D5AF3F6ABDA18%7D&dist=TNMostRead
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122169431617549947.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo -
kõigile, kirssidega! nagu ütles Muhv või miski muu tegelane seal raamatus.
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Kui 16. börsipäeva foorumi avalooga avaldasin lootust, et 16. või 17. septembril ka Eesti autojuhid mootorkütuste hinnalanguse läbi 50 sendi jagu leevendust saavad, siis tuleb välja, et eksisin ühe päevaga ning alles täna on prognoositud 50 senti hindadelt maha tõmmatud. Pean tunnistama oma eksimust...
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MS Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack made an unsuccessful effort on Tuesday evening to persuade Citigroup’s to enter into a combination - NY Times (21.75 ) -Update-
NY Times reports seeking to avoid the kind of fate that led Lehman and Bear Stearns to collapse, John Mack, Morgan Stanley's chief executive, made an unsuccessful effort on Tuesday evening to persuade Citigroup's chief executive, Vikram Pandit, to enter into a combination, according to people briefed on the talks. "We need a merger partner or we're not going to make it," Mr. Mack told Mr. Pandit, according to two people briefed on the talks. Mr. Pandit, a former senior investment banker at Morgan Stanley, said Citigroup was not interested. It is thinking of deals it can strike with consumer banks, like buying the struggling Washington Mutual (WM) out of bankruptcy if its reported efforts to auction itself should fail, that would provide it with cheaper deposit funding.
sick f..k -
Tänase Baltikumi onslaughti kõrval Swedbank 4,6% plussis praegu. Tegelikult üldse tundus veidi omapärane see tänane lausmüük. Euroopa üldiselt plussis. Väidetavalt Londonis Vene stokid ka. Me siin ei räägi ju ka sellest, et Baltikum napilt-napilt miinusesse jäänud oleks. Aga eks see likviidsus murdub siin hirmu käes kiirelt.
Ise võtsin täna eelnevalt plaanitud tasemelt pikka dividendiportfelli Tallinna Vee aktsiaid ja näpuotsaga Baltikat juurde. USA indeksifutuurid paistavad ka plussis olema. Vist oli õige otsus, et GS ja MS eile lahti jäid.
Natuke on USA-st algava short-squeeze põrke moodi see asi, aga eks turg selline, et all estimates go out the window. -
WSJ's on täna negatiivses võtmes artikkel finantssektori reklaamikulutuste kohta, mis toetab meie Pro all avaldatud lühikeseks müügi ideed Lamar Advertising'ut (LAMR):
"We are working on our latest forecast and things will not be rosy," says Bruce Goerlich, head of U.S. research at ZenithOptimedia, a unit of Publicis Groupe. Ad executives fear that the latest financial crisis could erode advertisers' already shaky confidence, causing even marketers that haven't cut back yet to start doing so. Over the past year, Madison Avenue has seen ad spending hit the skids in major ad categories such as automotive, retail and financial services. But further declines in financial services would be worrisome because the sector -- comprising banks, and credit-card and insurance companies -- is the third-largest ad-spending category, behind auto and retail. It is responsible for about $9 billion in ad spending, or about 6% of the total in the U.S., according to TNS Media Intelligence.
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Investeerimispangad eelturul siiski nõrkust üles näitamas
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Kamoon, mingid hiinlased, koreakat, singapur, mis veel? Miks peaks keegi neist tulema päästma Morgan Stanleyt või Goldmani? Mingite selliste ostjate puhul on täiesti kindel, et USA valitsuse poolt abi loota pole. Ja kes nendest teab täpselt, mis nende bookis toimub? Ja isegi kui book on korras, siis jääb alati suur oht, et lihtsalt tehakse nalja pärast seda mingite rumalate välismaalastega, pisike bankrun ja korras.
Ainukesed, kellel on võimu veel midagi teha, on BofA ja JPM. BofA juba valis Merrilli ja JPM valis BSC, rohkemast ei käi ka nende jõud üle. Citigroup on ise ka liiga kanajalgadel, et üldse mõeldagi kellegi teise päästmise peale. Neil on vaja kapitali kaasata, mitte kulutada. -
Noh 90-ndal Alwaleed tegi Citi ostuga kokkumisele lõpu, praegu on muidugi teine olukord, aga miks ei peaks tänu hiljutistele naftatuludele jõhkralt cashi omavad Pärsia lahe maad tundma ahvatlust seda trikki korrata ja end odavalt sisse osta?
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Noh, natuke raske on tervet USA-d ära osta, kalliks läheb.
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Saksamaa DAX +0.61%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.00%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.96%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.54%
Venemaa MICEX N/A (börs suletud)
Poola WIG -0.17%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.22%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.03%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.71%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -3.96%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -2.51%
Tai Set 50 -0.36%
India Sensex +0.40%
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Kraft Foods sisse, AIG välja ... Dow Jones indeksist jutt
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Focus on Your Ultimate Goal: Making Money
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/18/2008 8:29 AM EDT
I walk slowly, but I never walk backward.
-- Abraham Lincoln
We are truly living in interesting times as we deal with the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. A lot of folks are suffering as this unwinding of bad debt and leverage continues. Unfortunately, it is very likely to continue for quite some time, as the root of the problems is deeply embedded in the system.
I'll let others whine and complain about who and what has caused these problems. I'm sure there will be books written about it. What I'm concerned about is helping you navigate through this. If we can do that, there should be some exceptional opportunities down the road, but we must make sure we protect our capital while the market works through the problems.
First and foremost, we have to move slowly and not be fooled once again by the folks who have been calling market bottoms and turns all year. There is nothing more dangerous than these folks who seek publicity by making sensationalistic calls that the worst is over and that we should jump in or risk being left out of a huge rally. Ironically, many of those same folks now are talking about how horrible things are and how it is even worse than the 1987 crash.
Keep in mind that you do not need to be fully invested at the absolute bottom of the market. In fact, if you are, you very likely have racked up some sizable losses in getting there. I've been espousing this view for quite some time, but many folks just can't resist the siren song of those who promise profits if you anticipate a turn.
If you aren't holding high levels of cash, then you need to get some. Even if this is a bottom, you need to reset your thinking and sell some positions. You will find that you will navigate the market much better if you shake up your portfolio and approach the market differently. Anyone who is heavily invested right now needs to change the way they think about the market, or they are going to suffer badly as this bear market plays out further.
If you are holding high levels of cash, the important thing now is to keep time frames short and to be very selective until we have a clear change in the overall market trend. Let the market prove itself for a while before you hop in. What can be so costly in bear markets is to jump in when we have a bounce because you hope that this is the start of the big turn.
We are getting a bounce this morning, but we'd be very foolish to trust it. It is possible that it is the start of the major turn, but betting on that is way too risky.
There are opportunities out there on the short side and for some quick trades, so you can try to knock out some profits if you like. For example, we seem to have some bounces in gold, oil and other stocks backed by "hard assets." That might not last that long, but it is the sort of theme play that you can embrace for a day or two even in a horrible market environment.
We are bouncing a bit this morning, but keep in mind that markets seldom recover in a straight line. A lot of folks are trapped in this market and will be looking for ways to escape. They will sell into strength and that will put the brakes on bounces. That process will play out a number of times as we hunt for a good low. The good low will not come quickly, although tradable bounces will.
Move slowly and you'll keep from moving backward.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Select financial related stocks rebounding: UBS +17.9%, AIG +13.2% (S&P reports most AIG ratings' CreditWatch status revised to developing; short-term ratings raised), WM +11.9% (Wells Fargo, Citi have expressed preliminary interest, according to sources - WSJ), LYG +11.5% (buys HBOS in GBP12.2B all-share deal - DJ), RBS +9.9%, AXA +7.3%, MBI +7.1%, DB +6.8%, ING +4.2%, BCS +4.0%, C +2.5%, WB +2.0% (MS considers merger with WB - NY Times)... Select metals/mining names showing continued strength as the dollar weakens and gold rises further: GFI +12.4%, SLV +7.1%, NG +6.8%, AAUK +6.5%, HMY +5.1%, MT +4.4%, GOLD +4.3%, RTP +2.4%, NEM +1.8%, BHP +1.6%, GLD +1.1%... Select oil/gas names showing strength with crude higher: STO +7.4%, RDS.A +2.7%, TOT +2.1%, BP +1.9%, XOM +1.4%... Select China names trading higher following rebound in overseas trading: CHU +11.1%, CN +7.1%, ACH +3.3%... Other news: CEG +5.0% (EDF Considers Taking Over U.S. Joint Venture Partner - WSJ)... Analyst comments: CLR +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: APOG -15.6%, PLD -12.8% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank and downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC)... Select airlines showing weakness with crude higher: UAUA -9.4% , AMR -7.5% , LCC -6.3% , CAL -5.6% , DAL -4.3%... Other news: SRDX -23.3% (Merck discontinues license and research collaboration agreement with SurModics), CPST -20.0% (announces a ~21.48 mln share common stock offering), MS -6.9% (continued reports regarding a potential merger with WB; CNBC reported that co is beginning official merger negotiations with WB), GS -6.1% (showing continued weakness from yesterday's 10%+ decline), VRTX -4.0% (announces pricing of its public offering of common stock of 7.5 mln shares at $25.50 per share)... Analyst comments: KSS -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup). -
Kui pangad kõik 1-3 taala peale kukuvad, pole terve investeerimispankade nimekirja kuigi raske maha müüa:) Kohustustega on muidugi iseasi.
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kellelgi HANS call premarket oli käes?
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August Leading Indicators -0.5% vs -0.2% consensus, prior -0.7%
September Philadelphia Fed 3.8 vs -10.0 consensus, prior -12.7 -
C oke Reassessing Energy Strategy
Industry Publication Suggests Coca-Cola in Talks with Hansen According to Beverage Business Insights, Coca-Cola is reconsidering its energy strategy, including a possible distribution alliance or deal with Hansen. The publication was clear to mention that the deal may not necessarily include an equity stake. In our view, we believe inevitably a Coke/Hansen combination makes
sense, but we do not believe a deal is imminent.
jne.
UBS. -
Enek, thanks a mis kell see tuli?
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räägitakse et major biotech fund in trouble...
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hei!
mida taremad AIG-ga teeks? müüa või hoida veel? -
Leiko, AIG 2.00-2.10 pealt võttes oleks päris hea treid, kui antakse.
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leiko, dont gamble
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hoian eilsest 2 pealt, jäin hiljaks 2.5 peal... nagu eilegi
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NY AG to make announcement regarding short selling Thursday - DJ
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STT gonna tank big
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id cover..fyi
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minu õppetund sel turul on, et pole vaja üritada siinsed geniaalseid põhjatabajaid ja tipustshortijaid järgi teha, oma meetoditega on märksa easym ja stabiilsem :)
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bouncy time
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ei tea kah tegelt:) sorry
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kõik Gs põhjaõngitsejad said vägeva lüpsi.
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millega gambeldada täna?
