Börsipäev 22. september
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Nädalavahetus pole toonud uusi teateid USA plaani kohta osta ettevõtetelt $700 miljardi eest hapuks läinud eluasemelaene, täpsemad detailid on alles välja töötamisel. Küll aga võib nädalavahetusega lugeda lõppenuks investeerimispankade ajastu, kuna viimastena püsti jäänud kaks suurimat investeerimspanka Goldman Sachs ja Morgan Stanley said loa muutuda pangaks. Krediidikriisi ajal lühiajalisele kapitalile toetuv ärimudel enam ei töötanud ning investeerimispankade kuldajastu sai sellega läbi. Mõlemale ettevõttele tähendab see võimenduse olulist vähendamist, mis jätab ajalukku ka rekordilised kasumid ja marginaalid.
Peale kahepäevast rallit on futuurid tänasel eelturul kauplemas kerges miinuses. -
USA selle nädala majanduskalendris on olemasolevate (24. sept.) ja uute (25. sept.) majade müüginumbrite avaldamine ning reedel teatatakse teise kvartali lõplik majanduskasv.
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Stanford Lamar Advertisingu (LAMR) kohta:
"Lamar Advertising (LAMR) Sell rated target $20 trades at a several multiple point premium to traditional media stocksdespite ongoing deterioration in billboard advertising demand. Due to the impact of the worsening credit markets andfinancial meltdowns, we believe Lamar’s guidance for a 5% organic revenue decline for the third quarter could be extendedinto early 2009."
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Hmm, LHV ka investeerimispank ju :)
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Spengler oma tuntud headuses :-)
Paulson's dreadful scheme will become law, because Americans love their bankers. The bankers enable their collective gambling habit. Think of America as a town with one casino, in which the only economic activity is gambling. Most people lose, but the casino keeps lending them more money to play. Eventually, of course, the casino must go bankrupt. At this point, the townspeople people vote to tax themselves in order to bail out the casino. Collectively, the gamblers cannot help but lose; individually they nonetheless hope to win their way out of the hole.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JI23Dj06.html -
LHV tabas trendi enne ära ja võttis pangaks muutumise tee juba varem jalge alla. :)
Aga tegelikult ei ole asi niivõrd selles, et investeerimispankade tegevusvaldkondadega midagi juhtuks, vaid MSi ja GSi ärimudelis, kus suures osas tegutseti lühiajaliste vahendite najal. -
No jälle siis Morgan Stanleyl uus ostja. Jaapani Mitsubishi UFJ ostab MS-st viiendiku. Hind veel lahtine :-)
Info Kauppalehtist. -
Paistab, et tänu sellele uudisele MS aktsia eelturul uuesti üle 30 USD taseme hüpanud.
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Mõned ettevõtted tegelevad siiski ka aktsiate tagasiostmisega: Nike(NKE) autoriseerib uue $5 miljardilise ja Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) $8 miljardilise aktsiate tagasiostuprogrammi.
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Lisaks ostab ka Microsoft aktsiaid $40 miljardi eest tagasi.
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see tagasiostu teema haakub tänase Reutersi looga ... firmadel on raha kõvasti, kuid nad pole seda julgenud investeerida, täna siis tundub aga juba soodne hetk olevat aktsiate tagasiostuks ... see 620B on ka samas suurusjärgus valitsuse poolt pakutava 700B abiprogrammiga, mida optimistliku stsenaariumi korral võib vaadelda kui ajutist meedet hetkeni, mil usalduse taastumine toob ettevõtted tagasi raha paigutama
The Standard & Poor's industrials, a group of 368 large companies that excludes banks, insurers, utilities and transportation firms, held about $620 billion in cash and short-term securities as of June 30, according to data compiled by S&P analyst Howard Silverblatt.
That was roughly the same amount that they had in March 2007, before the financial market crisis mushroomed. Since then, companies have cut back on dividend increases, share repurchases and expansion, essentially hoarding cash because of concern about the state of the economy -
Kui septembri alguses oli Omniture'i (OMTR) osas positiivne Baird, siis täna usub ka RBC soodsaid arenguid. Briefing vahendab:
"RBC believes that OMTR is tracking in-line with consensus rev/EPS ests as traffic appear solid aided by strong Olympic/NBC traffic and record WSJ traffic during the current financial crisis. Firm expects Q3 CFO to exceed their $16 mln est due to the large Q2 spike in deferred rev as a result of several large deals. Similar to 3Q07, firm expects mgmt to give investors a sneak peak at 2009 rev growth assumptions, which could show upside to consensus."
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Positiivseid nägemusi ehitussektori kohta:
Pulte Homes (PHM) at Deutsche Bank Homebuilding Symposium- seeing signs that inventory levels are coming down, cancelation rates are cooling, and demand is picking up.
Raymond James upgrades select Homebuilders. The firm upgrades Ryland (RYL) and Toll Brothers (TOL) to Strong Buy. The firm also upgrades Centex (CTX), Pulte Homes (PHM) and Lenar (LEN) to Outperform.
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Saksamaa DAX +0.49%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.46%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.45%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.08%
Venemaa MICEX +0.99%
Poola WIG -0.07%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.42%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.58%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +7.78%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +7.08%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.19%
Tai Set 50 -1.84%
India Sensex -0.34%
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Reality Sets In
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/22/2008 8:42 AM EDT
The best we can do is size up the chances, calculate the risks involved, estimate our ability to deal with them, and then make our plans with confidence.
-- Henry Ford
Big, bold plans to save the market and the economy are everywhere this morning. All the geniuses who let this happen in the first place are now experts on why this happened and what to do about it. You can be certain that the plans to save us will become even bigger and more complex before it's all over.
Our job here isn't to worry about what the politicians or regulators might be doing, but to navigate these very choppy market seas. The question we have to contemplate is whether this historic bailout and revamp of the financial system is going to get stocks moving upward. Is it time to jump in and start buying?
Unfortunately, saving banks and the market from a panic failure doesn't mean that we are going to trade up. In fact, you have to wonder if this drama is ultimately going to make investors more averse to the risks that obviously exist in the stock market. Are investors going to be anxious to put their precious capital at risk as we spend a trillion dollars trying to keep banks from going bankrupt?
After the frenzied bounce to end last week, things are going to become much more difficult as we sort out the repercussions of the bailout program. To some extent, the big bounce was artificially created by an SEC-induced short squeeze. Now that the shorting of financials is banned and forced buying ensued, the upside there is going to be much trickier as real selling sets in and hedgers find ways around the rules.
Despite the huge bounce to end the week, the technical picture of the major indices hasn't changed much. The major indices ended close to unchanged for the week and remain in downtrends. In fact, they now face increased overhead resistance, which will make further upside more difficult.
We need to keep in mind the market's reaction to the Bear Stearns and AIG (AIG) bailouts. After a brief bout of euphoria, the selling kicked in again and we rolled over. The problem is that these bailouts carry some hefty costs and have plenty of repercussions. Already we are seeing the dollar weaken and gold rally as concerns grow over how the U.S. is going to finance this trillion-dollar move. While banks might be saved, we are going to pay a price for it in some way.
We will see how the market acts from here, but I will be surprised if investors are enthusiastic about putting capital to work at this point. I suspect many will hang back and wait to see how things develop before doing any buying. The joy over being saved from a meltdown is going to fizzle fast and is unlikely to be replaced with a huge amount of optimism given the cost, problems and uncertainty that are being created.
I don't want to be a pessimist, but I see little reason to expect much upside in this market from here. There are going to be some pockets of opportunity -- perhaps in things like gold or hard assets -- but we are going to have a tough slog for the broader market.
We have some weakness to start the day as oil and gold strengthen and financials struggle.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
M&A news: SCUR +23.9% (agrees to be acquired by McAfee for $5.75/share)... Select metals/mining names showing strength with higher spot prices: KGC +5.2%, GFI +4.0%, GOLD +3.8%, SLV +3.5%, ABX +2.1%, BHP +2.0%... Other news: HOKU +20.4% (secures power for 4,000 metric tons of polysilicon production), MS +8.4% (Bloomberg reports Mitsubishi UFJ to buy up to 20% of MS; also will be reclassified as bank holding companies), MCO +6.5% (added to SEC list of stocks protected against short selling) APH +3.7% (will replace WEN in the S&P 500) BP +1.7% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: OTTR +2.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), VSE +1.8% (upgraded to Hold at Citigroup).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GDI -3.9% (light volume)... Select financial related stocks under pressure: BCS -8.7% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), RDN -7.7%, UBS -7.0%, WB -5.1% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), MBI -4.9% (has sufficient cash and government securities to meet all potential GIC termination payment requirements in the event of downgrade), LYG -4.5% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), ABK -4.4% (comments on impact of potential ratings action by Moody's), BAC -3.9%, MER -3.7%, JPM -3.7%, WFC -2.0% (Cramer makes bearish comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: NTAP -1.7% (downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia). -
LAMRiga seotud reklaamituru olukorrast lähemalt FT vahendusel.
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Joel, neid allapoole ja ülespoole avanejaid on kõige parem teada ikka enne turu avanemist, mitte pärast. Kas siis kauplemideede noppimiseks või "seedimiseks" üldisena.
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Ühist arvamust ei leita isegi turu insiderite vahel, PHM-ga on varude osas täiesti vastupidisel arvamusel Hovanian (HOV):
Hovnanian Entrpr at the Deutsche Bank Homebuilding Symposium
Reiterates that one of the biggest problems in the market is the existing inventory that continues to rise. Two of the reasons for this problems are the foreclosure and delinquency rates that are reaching record levels. Says there are some pockets in the country that look to be the beginning of some good news. Some believe that there is another year of challenging market conditions.
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Millega seletada Fre ja Fnm meeletut tõusu viimastel päevadel??
Kas oleks mõistik seal positsioon võtta? -
Kindlasti mitte, puhas spekuleerimine.
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nussa, FNM ja FRE kuuluvad ka nende 799 finantsinstitutsiooni hulka, millel vähemasti kuni 2. oktoobrini lühikeseksmüümise keeld peal on. Samas, nende aktsiate short interest on viimastel kuudel tõusnud taeva poole nagu headel aegadel süstik Discovery kosmose poole kerkis. Kui FNMi puhul oli lühikeseks müüdud aktsiate arv eelmine aasta 18 miljonit, 6 kuud tagasi 65 miljonit, 3 kuud tagasi 130 milljonit, siis augusti lõpus oli see juba üle 180 miljoni ehk ca 20% kogu aktsiatest.
Ja kui lühikeseks müüa ei lubata, siis mõneks ajaks on suuremat müügisurvet natuke leevendatud ja aktsiaturg püüab lühikeste positsioonide omanikke pitsitada, et nad siin oma aktsiaid tagasi hakkaksid ostma ja lühikesi positsioone katma. Fundamentaalidega põhimõtteliselt olematu liikumine ja nagu Madis ütles - tegu puhtalt spekuleerimisega. -
Kusagilt peab ju raha juurde saama:
U.S. to sell record $34 bln in 2-yr notes Sept 24, $24 bln 5-yr Sept 25, to settle Sept 30 - Reuters -
Kas lhv -l on infot miks SKF hind -3,2% juures kuid XLF -5,0% Peaks olema vastupidise suunaga?
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SKF ei tohi lihhtsalt enne 2. okt tõusta, tal on keeld peal...
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peen huumor sul viru1000
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Fed says Goldman, Morgan Stanley bank applications are approved immediately - Reuters
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vist oli liiga raske küsimus.....Kindlasti shortimise keeluga seos, aga kuidas?
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SKF ja UYG on tegelikult viimastel päevadel ja isegi enne seda lühikeseksmüügi keelu kehtestamist liikunud äärmiselt 'ebakorrektselt'. Tundub, et põhjuseks on olnud suure osa finantssektori aktsiate ülivolatiilne liikumine ning ringi on liikunud jutud, et võimalik, et UYG ja SKFi puhul on derivatiividega midagi viimastel päevadel/nädalatel sassi läinud... Ja tõepoolest, ei imestaks, kuna need liikumised ei vasta kuidagi nendele liikumistele, mida nad näitama peaksid. Seega ausalt öeldes soovitaks neist eemale hoida senikaua, kuni nad taas 'normaalselt' 2x liikumisi tegema hakkavad.
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SKF - The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Financials index. The fund normally invests 80% of assets in financial instruments with economic characteristics that should be inverse to those of the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective. The fund is nondiversified.
esiteks on IYF Dow Jones U.S. Financials index ETF, XLF ei esinda indeksit, mille osas SKF peaks 2 korda vastassuunas liikuma
teiseks, SKF seeks daily investment results, may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective. Ehk siis see 2 korda vastassuund ei ole garanteeritud, vaid eesmärk, mida üritatakse saavutada, pikemalt graafikult on ju selgelt näha, et seda eesmärki pole saavutatud täpselt ja nüüd kui shortimine on keelatud, siis on ka 1 oluline vahend selleks puudu -
mis vahenditesse nad siis investeerivad , et finantssektori suure languse korral SKF ka langeb? ultrashort investeerib siis finantsi või? :)
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House Representative Barney Frank says the Treasury agrees to government getting equity as well as bad debts - CNBC
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Frank says House plan pretty close to Senate plan; Treasury plan will cost less than $700 bln - DJ
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Madis, ma tuletaks sulle meelde seda infokillukeset NCst:
Mark this date on your calander Oct 1, 2008 - fyi
A smart hedgie pinged me with the following:
Finally this homebuilder rally (XHB up 6% YTD) is making sense.
A buddy I know who is a seasoned real estate veteran says the down payment assistance program is creating quite a sense of urgency. BUT it expires on 10/1/2008. Consumer awareness that this program is going away in less than 30 days is causing alot of buyers to get in and get in NOW... They are pulling out all the stops to get these deals done. But outside of that... there really isn't any other demand in the pipeline.
I read an article recently that talked about the fact that 75% of the new home buyers in the Phoenix area are using this down payment assistance.
This is causing alot of current demand that is being mistaken for the real turn in real estate. Beware, because after Oct 1st... this demand will evaporate and the real decline will start, and it will be sharp. It wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility to see sales fall off a cliff this fall.
As anecdotal home sales data is being released over the next 30days the news will be good and the builders will likely go higher, and cramer can declare victory... so don't try to fight this... YET.
The easy money will be made on the other side. -
U.S. Rep Frank says Treasury accepts oversight board proposal for financial bailout - Reuters
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Dow Jones indeksite kohta - the indexes are weighted based on float-adjusted market capitalization and are calculated in real time.
See tähendab, et SKF mehed ei saa tuima näoga istuda oma fikseeritud osakaaluga lühikeste positsioonide otsas, sest indeksis, millele nad üritavad 2 kordset vastupidist liikumist korraldada kogu aeg aktsiate osakaalud muutuvad. Seega on vaja kogu aeg shortida juurde ühtesid aktsiaid ja teiste lühikesi positsioone katta nii et lühikeste positsioonide osakaal oleks vastavuses indeksis olevate aktsiate osakaaluga. See, et tegelikult kasutab SKF derivatiive (suurim holding 13% on indeksi swapid) ei puhu pilli, sest langusele panustamiseks mõeldud derivatiivide väljakirjutaja peab oma positsioonide katmiseks ikka shortimise võimalust omama. Arvestades seda kui suur on käesolevas turusituatsioonis võimalus, et mõni üksik komponent indeksis kappab hoogsalt ja mõjutab oluliselt indeksi tootlust (AIG täna +30%), siis võimaluse ära võtmine läbi lühikeseks müügi oma portfelli indeksi järgi kohandada võib anda esmapilgul ootamatuid tulemusi küll -
ja see oli 5.september ehk siis eelviimane lause on kaotanud/kaotamas kehtivuse
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Naftafutuurid tegid äsja tipuks $130.00 barreli eest, kaubeldes hetkel pealpool $122.65 olles +17.31% tõusus.
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Henno paranda mind kui eksin, aga kas katmine mitte lubatud ei olnud? AIG lühike pos oleks saadud kaetud? Või mitte?
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lähen võtan paagi täis...
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Kas saan õigesti aru, et lühikeseks müügi keelamine peaks ka puttide hinnad üles viima, kuna kirjutajad ei saa enam beetat hedge-da?
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anoogen
hästi lihtne ja hüpoteetiline näide - kui mul oli indeksis eile näiteks 50/50 vaid 2 aktsiat - AIG ja WFC, siis, AIG täna +30% ja WFC -10%, seega ma peaksin AIG katma ja WFC shortima juurde, WFC shortida ei saa, kust ma raha saan AIG katmiseks? -
Mis nüüd nafta hinda puudutab, siis tahaks siinkohal öelda, et tegu on short squeeze'iga oktoobri lepingutes, mis täna õhtul lõppevad. Sel ajal kui oktoobri lepingud on 17% üleval, on november tõusnud 6%.
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ühesõnaga , skf kooseisus olevate lühikesed ja pikade positsioonid jäid suures järgu samaks kui shortimise keelu hetkel oli
Kuna mitte kumbagi tehingut ei saa teostada? ühe jaoks puuduvad vahendid, teine keelatud? -
speedy, olen selle jutuga kursis ning võtan arvestatava taustinfona. Olen püüdnud ka foorumisse panna mõlema poole argumente, kuid üldiselt seda äkilise (ja ajutise) demandi juttu väga ei usu. Kui inimesed ootavad hindade jätkuvat langust, siis neil ei ole mõtet ennast miinusesse osta. Praegune nõudlus on nagu on ning kui seegi ära kukub, siis pigem "suuremate" põhjuste tõttu (jätkuvalt nõrgenev majandus, ostujõu langus, pessimistlik tulevikunägemus, tõusvad intressimäärad). Praegu aga ootame hinnalanguse järsku pidurdumist, mis võib tulla juba selle aasta jooksul.
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seega võiks juba DUG-i poole vaadata?
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Vara veel. :)
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kardan ka
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USO püüab jälgida nafta spot hinda ja +6,30%
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Päris hea tulemus, kui maailmapäästmiskavale reageeritakse SPY 2,7% ja XLF 7,5 langusega. Aga see-eest oli tore reedel rahasid ümber jaotada, muu vist polegi oluline.
