Börsipäev 26. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Kill Bill 3 seeria võtted Kongressis venivad oodatust pikemaks, kuid see ei sega Crameril laskmata karu nahka jagada
On Thursday's edition, Jim claims Bank of America (BAC) could benefit from the bailout as it has already written down the value of the loans it acquired through its merger with Countrywide, and is currently in the process of doing the same with the assets it received from Merrill Lynch (MER). Cramer said once the government begins buying mortgages at values higher than Bank of America's current book values, the bank can instantly revalue these assets and see some upside. Wachovia (WB) could also benefit because the bank will be able to split into good and bad components and sell off the bad parts quickly to the government. -
Kui JPMorgan näpsas ära Bear Stearnsi jäänused, siis 'raisakotkas' on sedapuhku Washington Mutuali (WM) kallal ja võtab ettevõtte pangavarad üle $1.9 miljardi eest, mis tähendab, et vähemasti hoiustele garantiid pakkuva FDIC reservid jäävad puutumata (WMi varad jäid ca $300 miljardi juurde). Aktsia hind, mis täpselt aasta aega tagasi oli $35, lõpetas järelturul $0.45 peal üle 70% punases, kuid põhimõtteliselt peaks selline tehing jätma lihtaktsionärid üldse tühjadega pihkudega...
Washington Mutuali palgalehel on/oli üle 40 000 töötaja ning selle kokkukukkumine on vaieldamatult USA pangandusajaloo suurim. -
ABX-d on viimase paari kuu jooksul imelikult käitunud.
http://www.markit.com/information/products/category/indices/abx/history_graphs.html -
mõned neist "150 kirja" majandusteadlastest ja muudest asjapulkadest arvasid, et turuga manipuleeritakse bail-out paketi vastuvõtmise nimel.
poliitkute käitumine viitab minu arvates sellele, et McCain'i rolli tahetakse selle tingel-tangeliga eesseisvaid valimisi silmas pidades olulisemana näidata. -
RIMM on tulemustejärgselt saanud mitu vastupidist soovitust:
Credit Suisse upgrades Research in Motion to Neutral from Underperform and cut their tgt to $80 from $100 following the co's Q2 results.
Deutsche Bank downgrades Research In Motion to Sell from Hold.
Research In Motion upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James. -
Kuuldavasti on Merrill soovitamas oma klientidel kasutada RIMM'i puhul $75-80 taset ostmiseks.
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proovin natukesega RIMMi võtsin tiba pikaks 77 alt hoian suht tight stoppi. (üldiselt ei soovitaks niiviisi gambelda või vähemalt ma ei oska)
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Samas Citigroup on muutunud terve tööstusharu suhtes karusemaks ja langetab Research in Motion'i (RIMM) soovituse "Hold" peale hinnasihiga $90 (eelmine soovitus oli "Buy" ja $160). Lisaks saab negatiivse muudatuse osaliseks ka Motorola (MOT): uus soovitus "Hold" ja hinnasiht $8.75.
Changing Industry Fundamentals — We believe the already competitive handset industry is entering a more difficult phase, driven by slowing consumer & enterprise and the increased marketing/subsidy spending needed to support the flurry of new product launches. We see potential for severe price competition (potential price war?) across the industry. -
nicht ..sell RIMM. may be a bad day. WaMu, RIMM und bill.
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Täitsa huvitav, kuidas ja millal Carl Ichan Motorolast väljub.
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Ehitajate puhul juba täiesti tavaliseks saanud tulemus:
KB Home (KBH) reports Q3 (Aug) loss of $1.87 per share, $0.65 worse than the First Call consensus of ($1.22); revenues fell 55.7% year/year to $681.6 mln vs the $734.7 mln consensus.
Samas on bilanss järjest tugevam, põhjuseks:
KB Home continue to focus on three integrated strategic objectives: maintaining a strong financial position, restoring operational profitability and positioning ourselves to capitalize on a housing market recovery when it occurs.
Samas lähitulevikku väga helgelt ei nähta, sest foreclosurer'id tõusevad, varud on kõrgel ning inimestel on raske saada laenu. Valitsuse töös oleva plaani kohta ei osata enne detailide selgumist nägemust võtta.
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Q2 Personal Consumption +1.2% vs +1.7% consenus, prior +1.7%
Q2 GDP- final +2.8% vs +3.3% consenus, prior 3.3% -
EUR/USD kurss peaks kõige kiiremini hinnangu andma neile numbritele - ja valuutaturgudel on koos suur hulk finantsturgude teravaimaid pliiatseid
5 minutit möödas ja kurss pole liikunud ei ühes ega teises suunas, kas tõesti nonevent billi ootuses või suuda ka finantsturgude teravaimad pliiatsid enam seisukohta võtta tänase suure määramatuse tingimustes -
Minu arust parim lause solar-sektori kohta, olen samal seisukohal:
Firm cautions investors to continue to remain focused on fundamentals and the fact that supply of PV is beginning to grow faster than demand, rather than relying on the "math" to help make the fundamentals look better. (Friedman Billings)
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Kuskil interneti avarustest jäi silma, et solareid peetakse järgmisteks buumijateks. Linki ei ole anda
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Mida kuumem sektor, seda rohkem erinevaid arvamusi. Ise usun, et solaril kui tööstusharul on ees õitsvad aastad, kuid konkurents suureneb ning paljude ettevõtete valuatsioonid on nii kõrgeks aetud, et need pole jätkusuutlikkud.
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WB täna -25%. See on ohtlik ja sel tasub silma peal hoida.
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Saksamaa DAX -1.82%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.93%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -2.36%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.91%
Venemaa MICEX -1.84%
Poola WIG -0.31%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.94%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.33%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.17%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.31%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.60%
Tai Set 50 -0.52%
India Sensex -3.28%
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Chaos Reigns as the Bailout Push Sputters
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/26/2008 7:51 AM EDT
The budget should be balanced, the treasury should be refilled; public debt should be reduced; and the arrogance of public officials should be controlled.
-- Cicero, 106-43 B.C.
The market has quickly fallen apart after a hopeful rally yesterday in anticipation of a bailout agreement. The real driving force here seems to be the many folks on Main Street who are outraged by the idea of bailing out Wall Street. Congressional Republicans are balking, and that leaves a very odd confederation between the Bush administration and congressional Democrats. Talk of a new plan is being circulated, but at the moment all we have is absolute chaos.
To add to the difficulties, the credit markets are seeing extremely high levels of stress again as LIBOR rates and the commercial paper market undergo heavy volatility. We also have the failure of Washington Mutual (WM) , but that has been pretty well anticipated, and JPMorgan (JPM) is taking over there with a minimum of disruption. A bad earnings report from Research In Motion (RIMM) is also adding to the distress as the stock trades down more than $20 from yesterday's close.
It is often said that the market hates uncertainty, and we have that in spades this morning. It is almost impossible to trade this market right now because it is so driven by the next headline.
I suspect traders will be trying to anticipate another relief rally if it looks like another bailout bill might be agreed upon. That is the sole focus of this market right now, and there is so much disagreement over whether that will be of any real help that any relief rally is most likely to be a good setup for shorts.
Speaking of shorts, regulators in China are considering lifting their ban on short-selling in order to help their markets. That's right, China has figured out that its long-standing ban on shorts might actually be hurting their markets rather than helping them and it wants to boost trading.
So it's a mess out there. There isn't much we can do other than stand aside and wait for things to calm down. You can't trade this market in a rational fashion. It's a gamble on news, which some people enjoy, but it is better for the prudent speculator to just to stay in cash and wait on the sidelines.
We have an ugly start as foreign markets take a hit and crude oil trades down.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: JBL +7.6%, TIBX +4.6%... Select gold related names ticking higher with modest weakness in dollar: GFI +2.4% (may consider bid for Mvela, Northam, report says - DJ), ABX + 1.8%, SLV + 1.7%, AUY + 1.7%, GG + 1.7%.
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RIMM -20.9% (also downgraded to Sell at Deutsche Bank, downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC and downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), NED -19.4%, ARP -6.0%, KBH -5.0%... M&A news: KG -8.9% (Alpharma Board of Directors unanimously rejects King Pharmaceuticals' unsolicited tender offer as "financially inadequate")... Select financial related stocks showing weakness with reports that the $700 bln government rescue plan is in question and the FDIC seizing WM, with JPM acquiring all the deposits of WM banking operations: WM -92.9% (The FDIC seized WM in what is reportedly the largest U.S. bank failure in history; JPM has acquired all deposits, assets and certain liabilities of WM banking operations, but not the holding company), DSL -27.9%, FNM -24.2%, WB -20.4% (credit protection costs now trading on upfront basis, according to CMA Datavision - Reuters), ABK -18.3%, FRE -17.7% (announces its monthly volume summary for Aug 2008), SCA -16.7%, CIT -16.1%, PMI -14.4%, RDN -13.4%, MS -11.9% (FT reports Morgan Stanley lost close to a third of assets in its prime brokerage last week and suffers cash flight), MTG -11.0% (announces changes to Captive Reinsurance Programs), FITB -10.9%, AIG -10.3%, NCC -9.8%, IBN -8.9%, BCS -8.4%, UBS -7.2%, LYG -6.9%, ETFC -6.9%, BAC -4.7%, GS -4.4% (credit protection costs trading up to 430 bps vs 363 on Thursday, according to CMA Datavision - Reuters), JPM -3.9% (JPM confirmed that it has acquired all deposits, assets and certain liabilities of WM banking operations and confirms $8 bln capital raise), MER -3.8%, UCBH -3.6%, C -3.4%, WFC -3.1%... Select dry bulk shippers trading lower with the dry bulk index continues to plunge, falling another 10% overnight: EXM -7.8%, DRYS -4.6%, TBSI -4.2%, DSX -4.0%... Select solar names showing weakness: ESLR -10.4%, TSL -7.5%, JASO -6.6%, SOLF -5.7%, CSIQ -5.4%, YGE -5.4%, LDK -5.2%, FSLR -3.6%, SPWR -2.0%... Select tech related stocks trading lower following RIMM results: AAPL -4.5%, NOK -3.5%, MOT -3.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), GOOG -1.5%... Other news: NPSP -16.0% (discloses that GlaxoSmithKline ends Ronacaleret study), RIO -4.8% (China to halt ore imports from RIO, according to report - DJ), BHP -4.6% (still checking for anything specific), TTM -3.6% (to sell stake in 6 arms - Economic Times), NNN -3.1% (prices a 3 mln share common stock offering at $23.05/share), WRE -1.5% (confirms public offering of 1.5 mln shares)... Analyst comments: CF -8.3%, AGU -7.1% and TRA -6.3% (all downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), GE -4.6% (downgraded to Hold at Argus). -
Bushilt väga sisukas kõne: mingis vormis kriisiplaan võetakse vastu...
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aga mitte täna...
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Kui mul on kindel nägemus, et lähimate kuude jooksul läheb asi krahhiks kätte ära ja pangandus saab veel eriti pihta ning igasugused triljonid ei aita, siis mis võimalused oleks mul sellele panustada? Ise mõtlesin QQQQ pute jaanuari strikega..
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QQQ on peamiselt tehnoloogia, vaata SKF-i jms.
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nagu Villu Parvet teab ....iiiimeilis peitub jõud
Morgan Stanley pops as CNBC reports that CEO Mack sent memo to employees moments ago, saying process to conclude transaction with Mitsubishi is moving ahead as anticipated (25.33 -1.79) -Update-
Says deal is days away... MS says they will raise $8.5-9.5 bln in new capital. (MTU) -
2 Hito
Ära nüüd seda soovitust 100% tõe pähe võta (ma pole proffessionaalne investor), kuid börside kukkumisega tavaliselt kaasneb kulla tõus. Juhul kui venelased massiliselt oma kullavarusid müüma ei hakka just. Samas kulla hinnaski tundub seda mulli omajagu olevat, niiet kuidas nüüd võtta.
Praegu üldse minusuguse konservatiivse tegelase jaoks ülikeeruline olukord, sest:
1) Börsidele olenemata kohati headest PE-dest ei julge raha panna, massihüsteeria pole raugemise märke näidanud.
2) Kullas tundub õhku omajagu olevat.
3) Kinnisvara hindade edaspidine langus tundub tõenäoline seoses pankade poolse kraanide kinni keeramisega (ehkki sissetulekute/hindade suhe tunduks juba tasapisi mõistlikum, aga kui laenu ei saa siis pole sellest midagi kasu).
4) Rahas istuda ka ei julge, kuna rahandussüsteem ise tundub järjest enam püdamiidskeemina.
kokkuvõte?
Peaks vist bemmi ostma ja elu nautima - pole raha, pole ka muret mida sellega peale hakata:D -
algajate küsimus aga mis kell turud avatakse?
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Parim plaan oleks paar tundi enne börsipäeva lõppu "bailout" heaks kiita - siis suudetakse ehk eelmist nädalavahetust peaaegu korrata. Shortimise ärakeelamise laskemoon on küll otsas.
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Hito- kui sa oled algaja, siis ennekõike esimene asi turul ellujäämiseks on võime ja tahtmine õppida. Kui sa ei suuda iseseisvalt ülesse leida internetist turgude avanemis- ja sulgemis aegu, siis mis siis veel saama hakkab, kui sa hakkad huvituma näiteks optsioonidest.
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Hito,
Regulaarne kauplemisaeg USA turgudel on 16.30-23.00 (ja vahepeal sõltuvalt suve/talveaja erinevatest üleminekutest USAs ja Euroopas võib see tunni võrra paar nädalat aastas erineda). -
Hito, kell 16:30 avati USA.
CIti downgrade fertilizer sektorile on päris hea ostukoha pakkunud CFile ja MOSile. -
Follow-up on U.S. House ok'ing bill to extend tax credits for wind, solar and other renewable energy sources
According to Reuters, The U.S House of Representatives approved legislation on Friday to extend billions of dollars in tax credits for wind, solar and other renewable energy sources. The House measure is similar to energy legislation cleared earlier this week in the Senate, except that the House bill leaves out tax incentives to develop oil from shale and tar sands and for projects to turn coal into liquid fuels. It is unclear whether the House and Senate will be able to work out the differences in their bills in time to get a final energy tax package to the White House before lawmakers leave town to campaign for the November election. A final bill may have to wait until a possible lame duck session of Congress after the election.
Solarid pole uudise peale toetust leidnud, enamus tugevas languses!
Briefingus eelnevalt päevakauplemisideena FSLR pikaks $207.51 pealt stop $3 madalamal, mis nagu näha oli ebaõnnestunud treid, kust stopiti välja. $200 on hetkel ka päeva põhi, kust on toetust saadud. -
House republicans meeting just ended on financial rescue package - CNBC
Florida Rep. Adam Putnam appears on CNBC, says they are moving forward with a plan that is better for the American taxpayer, on a plan that guarantees the main street merchants and consumers will have a part of whatever action takes place by the end of this weekend. House minority leader John Boehner (R) says Congress needs to act quickly... also says the goal is to do the right thing while protect the American taxpayers. Boehner says, however, they will not agree on a bill that sells out the taxpayer to bail out Wall Street.
Turg on päeva tippudeni kosunud, kas jõutakse ka edasi minna? -
TRA long $30.42 puhtalt TA alusel(briefingu test), kuna murdis 30 tasemelt üles. Siht 2 punkti ja stopp $29.97.
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Renault valmistub majanduslanguseks. Et töötajatest viisakalt lahti saada, pakutakse neile kahe aasta palka kompensatsiooniks. Et see firmale kasulik oleks, prognoositakse järelikult majanduslanguseks pikemat perioodi.
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Päris oluline prognooside kergitamine IBKRi poolt. Volatiilsed ajad turgudel on abiks olnud:
IBKR Interactive Brokers sees Q3 EPS of $0.55-0.65 vs $0.47 First Call consensus; approves share repurchase program of up to 8 mln shares (20.42 -0.67) -Update-
Co expects income before income tax and minority interest to be between $325-375 mln and diluted EPS to be $0.55-0.65 (vs $0.47 consensus) for the quarter to end on September 30, 2008. Co believes that the impact of the recent significant market events have unduly depressed the price of the co's common stock, and the Board of Directors has therefore determined that a program of stock repurchases would be an opportunistic use of available funds. Co approves a share buyback program by its subsidiary IBG, authorizing it to repurchase up to 8 mln shares of the common stock. "Our strong financial profile and cash position provide us with the opportunity to repurchase our stock to return value to shareholders. The repurchase program reinforces our belief in the long-term value of our stock, which is being negatively affected by the current credit market environment. IBG LLC has more than $4 bln of equity capital and does not rely on outside liquidity to any meaningful extent and is therefore relatively unaffected by recent events." (stock is currently halted) -
(WB) Wachovia käitub ikka väga kahtlaselt, üsnagi septembri põhjade juurde müüdud. Hetkel kauplemas -35% languses $8.85 tasemel.
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Turg liigub üsna tugevalt ülespoole, kusagil vist midagi susiseb!
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Finants juba üsna turgevalt rallinud, isegi XLF juba +0.2%, kuid WB ikka veel -34% ja maadleb $9 tasemega. MS samuti ei suuda tuge leida kaubeldes -6% $25.40 tasemel.
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S&P 500 ennnast juba tõusu vedanud koos Dow-ga, kuid MS ja WB vajuvad ikka edasi, kas tõesti järgmised ohvrid?
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Tore oleks kui MS ja WB pillid kott panevad. Teen AlariÜ Sulle konjaki välja kui nii läheb :)
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Ei usu, et nii läheb. Kummaline müügisurve on küll, kuigi turg nii tugev. Väga sarnane eilse WM liikumisega.
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Hea pair trade tunduks long GS, short MS.. ahjaa, seda ju ei tohi teha.
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15:59 WB Wachovia: NY Times saying WB in prelim talks with C (9.50 ) -Update-
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WB selle peale alla ja siis ülesse. MS ülesse. Mõjub!
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Enterprime:
kui ms ja wb pille kotti ei pane(või paneb:), teeb LHV sulle ise nimelise konni välja, jõuludeks, ma loodan:) -
Lohutuseks konjak sobib. Aga ega raha pärast oks ennast kah tõmbama hakka. Enne kaotatud , mis see nüüdki ära ole.
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Raha? mõni kingib(börsil), mõni annetab, mõned teenivad, sureme ikka kunagi, mina lähen pittu ............
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No comments ( rahvas on vihane )
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usper läheb Amigosse, tule läbi pakun konjakit.
