LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 29. september

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Praeguseks on siis selge niipalju, et $700 miljardiline plaan finantssektorilt ebalikviidsete varade kokkuostmiseks ja krediiditurgude uuesti funktsioneerima panemiseks on laias laastus oma vormi leidnud. Hääletusele läheb see Kongressis esmaspäeval.

    $250 miljardit võetakse plaani järgi kasutusele kohe. Kui vaja, siis $100-le täiendavale miljardile saab loa anda president. Ülejäänud $350 miljardi käikulaskmiseks on vaja Kongressi täiendavat nõusolekut.

    Riik saab vastu aktsia warranteid, mis tähendab, et aastate pärast, kui plaan õnnestub, võib tänaste maksumaksja dollarite eest ostetud warrantid kõrgema hinna ja kasumiga uutele investoritele maha müüa.

    Ettevõtted, kes müüvad varasid enam kui $300 miljoni eest, ei tohi oma juhtkonna tippliikmetele maksta aastalõpu kompensatsiooni-/preemiapakette suuremaid kui $500 000 - üle selle minev summa on väga tugevalt maksustatud, vältimaks seda, et tippjuhkonna liikmed plaani arvelt suuri personaalseid kasumeid saaksid teenida.

    Futuurid võtavad esimestel minutitel situatsiooni vastu neutraalselt - indeksid samal tasemel, kus reedel lõpetati. Aga eks päeva peale hakkab seis muutuma.
  • Australia ASX 100 -41.90 -1.05% 3,958.90 9/29 1:54pm
    Australia ASX All Ords -50.60 -1.03% 4,884.00 9/29 1:54pm
    Australia ASX Mid-cap 50 -39.20 -0.82% 4,767.40 9/29 1:54pm
    Hong Kong Hang Seng -373.28 -2.00% 18,308.81 9/29 11:59am
    Hong Kong HSCC Red Chip -27.90 -0.79% 3,521.19 9/29 11:59am
    Japan Nikkei 225 -60.80 -0.51% 11,832.36 9/29 12:45pm
  • Benelux financial group Fortis

    underwent a shotgun nationalisation on Sunday after emergency talks with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet to prevent U.S.-style financial contagion engulfing one of Europe's top 20 banks.

    The Belgian, Dutch and Luxembourg governments agreed to inject 11.2 billion euros ($16.4 billion) into the banking and insurance company, which will sell the parts of Dutch bank ABN AMRO that it bought last year, precipitating its troubles.

  • In London, regulators were in talks on the future of troubled lender Bradford & Bingley, raising the prospect that a second British bank could be nationalised.
  • Halbadel uudistel ei näi lõppu tulevat, pakun, et see 700 bn$ ei paku ka erilist lohustust..
  • Analysts say that most of the obvious bank targets that had been identified as weak, have now fallen.

    Edaspidi siis ainult veel halvemaid üllatusi kui ellujääjäks peetutest keegi peaks langema.............
  • The Government officially nationalised the bulk of Bradford & Bingley this morning, seizing £50 billion of assets and bankrolling the deposit protection lifeboat to ensure the ordinary 2.6 million depositors will not lose out.
    Banco Santander, the Spanish bank that owns Abbey National, has bought the £20 billion deposit business and the network of 200 branches.
    Shareholders, including more than 800,000 small private investors, will initially get nothing. It was not immediately clear what steps would be taken to consider compensation, if any.
  • Islandi valitsus ostab 75% Glitnirist hinnaga 600 miljonit eurot. Põhjuseks ettevõtte finantsseisu dramaatiline nõrgenemine. Glitnir siis Islandil baseeruv investeerimispank, kes ka Balti börsidel aeg-ajalt nägu näitab.
  • Glitniri päästmisega kaasneb ka Islandi krooni rekordiliselt madal tase EUR vastu
  • Mis futuurid näitavad hetkel USA kohta?
  • Bailout ka turgu ei toetanud. Siin jääb üle vaid küsida - mis siin enam üldse tuge pakkuda võib?
  • Wachovia, America's fourth biggest retail bank, was in advanced discussions on Sunday night to sell itself to Wells Fargo.
    Wachovia was understood also to be holding talks with Citigroup but, by late evening Wells Fargo, the US retail bank, appeared to be the preferred bidder.
    at the end of June this year, Wachovia, which is based in Charlotte, North Carolina, had retail deposits of $448 billion
  • Väga hea, kui miski enam turgu ei toeta siis oleme jõudnud paanika faasi:)
  • Mulle meeldib paanikafaas. Mulle meeldib iga suurem kukkumine, mis põhjustab müügilaine. Saaks lõpuks taksojuhid oma haavu lakkuma ja aktsiaturud oma põhjad kätte. Mulle tundub, et Tallinna börsil seisab ka veel äkilisem pauk 20-30+ portsendiga ees.
  • Et siis 270 peale nagu? Teeme põhja ja arcot saaks 2 eeguga?
  • Deutsche Bank downgrades DISH Network (DISH) to Hold from Buy and lowers their tgt to $31 from $51, following news that AT&T won't be renewing its five-year partnership with DISH, instead choosing to partner with DirecTV.

    Dish on DirecTV järel suuruselt teine satelliit-televisiooni pakkuja, kes AT&T näol kaotas oma viimase telekomipartneri. Kõlakad partnerluse lõpetamise kohta ringlesid juba varem, seepärast langes aktsia reedesel järelturul "ainult" 5.9%. Usutavasti tuleb tänane kukkumine suurem.

  • 07:35 President Bush begins statement on Emergency Economic Stabilization Act
  • Oli tore kõne. Sellega asi piirduski. :)
  • Citi on tõstmas Toll Brothersi (TOL) hinnasihti varasema $27 pealt $31.50-ni. Peamise põhjusena tuuakse ettevõtte $1.5 miljardi suurust raha positsiooni ning juhtkonna ekspertiisi. Kuna aktsia on oma põhjadest üle kahe kuu tõusnud, EPSi ootused Citi poolt samaks jäetud ning bailouti uudise peale tundub täna olevat pigem sell-the-news reaktsioon, siis tormilist ostuhuvi siit ei oota.
  • tsipa AAPL short 121.50 juurest ..tunduks et võib veel alla minna. kaks kõva downgradet täna.
  • FirstFed Financiali (FED) ja Downey Financiali (DSL) aktsiate võimalikust penny stocki saatusest sai juttu tehtud 11. juuni börsipäevas. FEDi aktsia kukkus hiljem alla $3, kuid taastus seejärel $24.8-ni, DSL liikus sarnase mustri järgi. Loodeti vist bailouti peale ning oma osa oli shortide katmisel. Kuna mõlemad ettevõtted on hulgaliselt väljastanud muutuvate määradega hüpoteeklaene (ARM), siis Wachovia (WB) kukkumine mõjus neile nagu külm dušš.

    Kui Wachovia poleks ennast Citigroupile maha müünud, oleksid laenukahjud võinud ettevõtte ka pankrotti viia. Neljast suuremast ARMide väljastajatest oli Wachovia viimane tegutsev, seega pole mingit põhjust arvata, et DSL-l peaks paremini minema. Liiatigi tegutsekse Californias, kus kinnisvarahinnad kõige enam kukkunud. 

  • suffiksi postitatud artiklis on ARMide iseloomustamiseks suurepärane lause:

    For the average option ARM borrower, payments will rise 63 percent, or by an additional $1,053 per month, when their rates reset, according to a Sept. 2 report by New York-based Fitch.

    Laenuvõtjad lootsid kas enda palga ülikiirele kasvule või tegelesid spekuleerimisega, lootes maja hiljem kallimalt maha müüa. Seepärast tundub nende abistamine samasugune moral hazard nagu finantsasutuste puhul, kuna riski võeti reeglina teadlikult. Aga häid alternatiive pole, sest kindlasti on nende hulgas ka inimesi, kes langesid lihtsalt pankade turundusjõudude lõksu. Lisaks tähendaks mitteabistamine veelgi suuremaid kulusid ülejäänutele.

  • Tundub, et kui selle portsu inimestega nüüd tõsiselt tegelema hakatakse (ehk inimesed tulevad maapeale ja saavad aru, et neil tuleb laen tagasi maksta), siis oleks oodata päris suurt laksu muule majandusele (2nd round effect nagu teises foorumis nimetatud). Mulle tundub, et sellega pole veel päris lõpuni arvestatud..!?
  • igalpool meedias on küll alati (heal juhul) mcdonaldsi töökohtadega neegripere kellele a la ukselt-uksele müügiagent on müünud "soodsa" ARM laenu. Pakun, et teadlikult selle jama kaela võtnuid on siiski vähemus.
  • TED Spread (erinevus 3 kuu LIBORi ja USA riigivõlakirjade vahel) on tegemas uusi tippe, praegu 3.44 tasemel vs 2.92 reedel.
  • Ehk siis nähakse suuremat riski USA riigil?
  • Nähakse suuremat riski teistes pankades.
  • Saksamaa DAX -2.78%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -2.95%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -2.64%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 -2.17%

    Venemaa MICEX -4.45%

    Poola WIG -2.60%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.26%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -4.29%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (börs suletud)

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (börs suletud)

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.51%

    Tai Set 50  -3.37%

    India Sensex -3.87%

  • Market Sentiment Turns Ugly Once Again
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    9/29/2008 7:37 AM EDT

    Every reform, however necessary, will by weak minds be carried to an excess, which will itself need reforming.
    -- Samuel Taylor Coleridge, 1772-1834

    The market is wasting no time in delivering a sharp "sell the news" reaction to the bailout plan. Many were looking for at least a little more positive reaction following the intense negotiations over the bill, but three bank failures in Europe undermined the fragile sentiment and have sent market players running for the sidelines once again.

    Although many are hailing the bailout plan as a fantastic solution to the illiquidity of bad mortgage paper, the big problem is that many investors are just awakening to how dire the whole situation is. While we may indeed be able to chip away at the problems with the passing of this plan, we still have a huge problem -- investors are downright frightened.

    The politicians are now largely in agreement over the necessity of this plan, but there is a huge negative backlash on Main Street. This deal has not been sold very well to many average investors, and that is undermining trust in the market as well as the whole financial sector.

    I can go on and on about the problems out there that are weighing on this market this morning, but what we really need to focus on is how to navigate through this. We still have substantial uncertainty, especially as the European banking system now recognizes its problems after saying as late as last week that it did not share the problems we are seeing in the U.S.

    In addition to the banking issues, we are now struggling to price in the recession they are going to deepen. You can see obvious evidence of that this morning as commodity-related stocks and industries such as steel and shipping are hit hard.

    I really wish I could offer some better advice, but we have little choice but to continue to stay heavily in cash and to avoid the temptation to bottom-fish. Emotions are extremely high, and that may help accelerate the bottoming process, but it is reckless to anticipate that it is coming to an end soon.

    I know this market isn't much fun, and there is a temptation to keep hoping for a big bounce and better conditions, but we have to respect what is happening, and it's not very pretty.

    The good news is that almost every poor open like we are seeing this morning has been a good trading opportunity, but the mood is frightening and you can be sure that quite a few folks are looking to escape this nightmare as quickly as they can if we have a bounce.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Select airlines showing strength with crude lower: LCC +4.9%, UAUA +4.7%, DAL +3.8%, CAL +3.0%... Other news: FNM +20.8% and FRE +12.5% (showing strength with progress on the $700 bln troubled asset agreement), PPC +9.9% (announces definitive written agreement with lenders on temporary covenant waiver), IMCL +4.1% (may have talks to announce - WSJ).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: XING -20.1%, CALM -15.6%, WAG -3.8%... Select financial related names showing weakness: WB -90.3% (Citigroup to acquire banking operations of Wachovia), NCC -25.9%, RBS -21.6% (tumbles in the UK because of its perceived links to the stricken European bank Fortis - Guardian Unlimited), CORS -20.0%, AIB -19.6%, LYG -18.9%, UBS -14.9%, CS -13.7%, AEG -11.4% (has EUR125 mln gross exposure to Washington Mutual - DJ), ING -11.1%, IBN -10.9%, MS -9.1%, C -5.2% (Citigroup to acquire banking operations of Wachovia), JPM -5.2%, WFC -3.8%, GS -3.6%, AIG -3.5% (will issue a new series of Convertible Participating Serial Preferred Stock, FT reports AIG looks to sell 15 units), ABK -2.9%, BAC -2.9%... Select oil/gas names stocks showing weakness with crude lower: BP -5.8%, RDS.A -5.6%, TOT -5.6%... Select mining names trading lower: MT -8.6%, BHP -8.1%, RTP -7.7%, RIO -5.0%... Other news: NOK -6.3% (still checking for anything specific), LLY -3.9% (announced the FDA did not complete its review for the prasugrel new drug application)... Analyst comments: AAPL -6.2% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley and downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), FCX -4.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Securities), CDE -4.5% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Securities).
  • kas keegi teab, mis kell bailout vote aset leiab?
  • Põnev saab olema, kas maagilised 2000 ja 10000 jäävad pidama :)
  • minu cent oleks, et buy mkt (aga ainult natukene!) ..hiljem mingi macro action äkki aitab
  • Nüüd tuleks mingi uus turge kosutav uudis välja lasta.
    - Riik ostab paari triljoni eest aktsiaid
    - Keelatakse finantsettevõtete aktsiate müük vms
    Ca 11 tuh on ju see Dow piir, kus alati midagi välja mõeldakse
  • FED ongi kukkunud üle 30%, DSL on 7% plussis. No ei usu, et kumbki neist omal käel suudab ellu jääda. Aga selle mõttega pole juba tükk aega midagi peale hakata.
  • Kas on infot kuna WB-ga kauplema hakataks?
  • maidre,
    hea meelega kataks allpool kui teaks, et veel kukub.
  • (GOOG) Google võitleb $400 toetustasemel püsimisega. Mõned korrad on tasemest juba alla läbi murtud, kuid on suudetud tagasi peale põrgata. Kas siit võib tulla pikem liug seni suhteliselt hästi püsinud aktsiale?
  • Väga hea lugu Kassilt täna minu arust:

    Here is a recap of some of the fundamental points I've been making over the past year:

    1. All of the losses this year were inevitable, because they happened years ago. The underlying issue affecting our economy is the misallocation of real economic resources, which are now sitting in monstrous empty condo projects in Naples, Fla., or huge empty subdivisions in Las Vegas.

    2. This last year was a gigantic exercise in assigning who takes the losses. None of the failed institutions could be saved. Even if they had been, it would just mean someone else would have taken the loss, most probably the investors who got suckered into bailing them out. Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on where you work) the sovereign wealth funds and private-equity firms were shrewd enough to back away and let Wall Street die rather than dump their losses on someone else.

    3. With no one willing to play the sucker, the government is stepping in! However, I don't think they will be suckered, as the true scope of the problem is quite visible now. The Troubled Assets Relief Program should be able to earn a return on most of the assets purchased. The shareholders of most troubled institutions are still going to be wiped out, many management teams will be fired, and some will go to jail. (If I were Angelo Mozilo, I'd be on a plane to Namibia.)

    4. I don't think we can avoid a recession, because we are back to the first point: All the misallocated resources must be gainfully re-employed somewhere else, and that process simply takes time. All the mortgage brokers making a million a year, the hordes of real estate agents who got their licenses at the top in 2006, the construction workers, the thousands upon thousands of Wall Street workers ... they must all find something else to do, and it won't be more of what they were doing before. They will need time to a) accept their fate, b) get retrained, and c) move. This is what a recession is.

    My net on the situation is that the bill needed to be passed, and we the people (via the government) needed to take on these losses to prevent a massive failure of the financial system. Now the Europeans may need to bail out their financial system. We'll see. What lies ahead is the simple hard work of creating new businesses to employ the army of unneeded housing industry employees.
  • Kas ma sain asjast valesti aru, või kinnitati see 700 miljardine lunastamine?!

    Miks börsid nii hullult kukuvad??
  • bailout vote on u. kell 20.00 - 20.30 Eesti aja järgi räägib BBC
  • 40 punktiline VIX kajastab päris hästi praeguste investorite tundeid sellistes turutingimustes.
  • Üks värske tehniline pilt siia ostuhuvilistele terasesektorist SCHN'st. Allikaks Briefing:

  • U.S. House begins vote on Emergency Economic Stabilization Act

    mida teeete kui bill vastu võetakse?

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