Börsipäev 1. oktoober
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Venemaa holding ettevõte ja sealse suurima telekomi MTSi (MBT) emaettevõte Sistema on kaalumas oma 25%+1 osaluse müümist Svyazinvestis. Võimalikuks ostjaks oleks Rostelecom ning tehingu hinnaks saab Vedomosti hinnangul olema $2.1 miljardit. Kuna Venemaa riigiametnikud on öelnud, et Svyazinvesti erastamine on päevakorrast maas, on tegu loogilise otsusega, lisaks aitab see vähendada Sistema võlgasid. Kui tehing aset leiab, saab loodetavasti tuge ka Sistema aktsia, mille turuväärtus on hetkel üle 40% madalam, kui ainuüksi tema osalus MTS-is, muudest varadest rääkimata.
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Last-Minute Share Rises Cause Trading Suspicions
The last five minutes of trading on the last day of the quarter were very good to a significant number of stocks on Tuesday, including battered financial shares.
This year, with traders no longer allowed to short financial stocks, sharp rises in share prices in the final minute could not be offset by short-sale orders from investors who suspected tape-painting.
For many stocks, the final move was striking. Sallie Mae, for example, rose 10 percent during those minutes
The brokerage firm Charles Schwab and the KeyCorp, a banking company, each leaped 7 percent in the final minutes
Shortimise keeluga saavutati seega lihtsalt uut tüüpi manipulatsioonid, millele varem vaba turg ise vastu seista sai. Seda kindlasti SEC uurima ei hakka, "positiivne diskrimineerimine" ju. -
http://www.sloleht.ee/index.aspx?id=298122&q=sami%20lotila
alasti tõde -
MBA Mortgage Applications -23% vs -10.6% Prior
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Kuidas luua rohkem usaldust pankade vastu? Lubame neil ise väärtuse välja mõelda bilansis olevale crapile. FBR:
SEC Emphasizes Use of Judgment in Application of FAS 157
Summary and Recommendation
Yesterday afternoon, the SEC and FASB issued preliminary guidelines for preparers of financial statements and auditors regarding
application of Fair Value Accounting under FASB Statement No. 157 that emphasized the ability of management teams to use judgment regarding the valuation methodology with regard to hard-to-value securities. We interpret the statement as implying that the SEC will be more forgiving in its review of management decisions regarding valuation methodology, thus allowing companies to be more aggressive in categorizing assets as Level III (mark-to-model) vs. Level II (combination of observable inputs). In the short run, the guidance may provide a respite by boosting GAAP capital, particularly at companies with a larger proportion of Level II assets (money center banks typically—see chart on Page 2), as we expect the majority of asset categorization transfers from Level II to Level III to result in higher valuations and, therefore, a gain. However, in the long run, the guidelines fall short of restoring investor confidence in the balance sheets of financial institutions that possess such toxic or exotic securities, in our opinion. While not quite the suspension of FAS 157 we had anticipated (according to CNBC, Republicans are still pushing to eliminate mark-to-market accounting to reduce the size of the TARP program), these new guidelines, we continue to believe, increase the opacity of these complex, difficult-to-value securities; and, given such a subjective interpretation, we think investors will have a difficult time placing and valuing companies on a level playing field. Later this week, we expect the FASB also to propose additional interpretative guidance to aid companies and auditors in measuring and reporting fair value of assets.
Key Points
• Emphasizing use of judgment. Absent relevant market evidence, the SEC guidelines highlight the use of management's judgment
regarding valuation and appropriate inputs, such as the use of management estimates that incorporate market participant
expectations of future cash flows. Broker quotes, where available, may not be deemed relevant if an active market does not exist for
the security. When the market for a security is less active, management can rely on models with inputs based on information
available only to it. Securities sold under a fire sale or forced transactions (disorderly sales) are not to be considered representative
of fair value. Determining whether a transaction is disorderly or if a broker quote is binding is subject to management's judgment.
• Inactive markets. According to the guidelines, an inactive market exists when there is a wide spread between bid and ask.
Preparers of financial statements will need to ascertain whether the market is active. If not active, transactions for similar assets
may still be used as inputs to measure fair value, with necessary adjustments. Given that many of the complex securities associated with substantial write-downs trade inactively, management teams will be able to move these assets from Level II (combination of observable inputs) to Level III (mark-to-model) and realize a gain.
• Other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) guidance. In assessing whether an impairment to an asset is other than temporary,
the following factors need to be considered: 1) the duration and the extent to which the market value of the asset has been below
cost, 2) the financial condition and near-term prospects of the issuer, and 3) the intent and ability of the holder of the asset to retain
its investment for a sufficient duration that allows recovery in market value.
In the table below, we present trading assets classified as Level I, II, and III under regulatory accounting practices (RAP). As indicated earlier, we interpret the SEC's emphasis on the use of management's judgment as an indication that there will be less scrutiny of management's decisions regarding categorization of assets as either Level II or Level III. Given our belief that, in general, asset valuations for hard-to-value securities fare better under mark-to-model (Level III) versus a combination of observable inputs (Level II), we expect to see a greater percentage of assets classified as Level III and the potential for trading gains to be realized, thus benefiting capital ratios.
Mulle meeldiks, kui fondid võiks ka samamoodi oma NAV arvutada.. "Ah et meil on mingi räigelt kukkunud sickfuck aktsia portfellis? Noo, turg ju ei saa ometi õigesti seda hinnata.. teeme diisiieffi ja saame õige hinna fondi NAV jaoks! A vaata, et see õige hind ikka paarkolm korda kõrgem turuhinnast oleks!" -
tore lugu ka sellest kuidas lühikeseks müügi keeld teeb pikaajalistele investoritele liiga
WSJ reports public pension funds and other big investors have long squeezed out a few extra bucks by lending stock held in their portfolios -- for a fee -- to short sellers. Now those funds are starting to feel a squeeze of their own. The collapse of Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual have set off new troubles in the securities-lending business, and the recent freeze in short-term debt markets has only compounded the problem. That has left a number of big investors -- from the California State Teachers' Retirement System to giant mutual funds -- with at least temporary losses. They could become permanent if conditions don't improve. The business of securities lending can seem yet another obscure corner of Wall Street. But it is big business for funds with huge portfolios of stocks. The profits earned from securities lending are one reason why index fund companies like Vanguard can charge clients such small fees. They can also boost overall pension-fund returns. -
Njah, suur Level 3 osakaal oli just see, mille pärast aktsiad peksa said või mille pärast juhtkonna sõnu suurepärasest bilansist ei usutud. Erinevatel konverentsikõnedel oli pidevalt jututeemaks, et mida Level 3 varad sisaldavad ja mis väärtuses arvel on. Peale seda hakkasid ettevõtted nende mahte vähendama, sest juhtkonnad said läbipaistvuse vajalikkusest aru. Kui nüüd uuesti vastassuunas liigutakse, on küll kummaline.
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September ADP Employment Change -8K vs -50K consensus, prior -33K
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Ka midagi head ! Lukoilis maksab diisel 17,50 kaartiga veel 0,25 krooni alla.
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USDi praegune tugevus EURi vastu on arusaamatu. ei usu, et Eurotsooni jamad nii sügavad veel on. või on tegu siiski sellega, et USA investorid müüvad mujalasuvaid varasid ja toovad raha koju, sellest kõva nõudlus USDi järele. milles siiski asi?
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Dish (DISH), millest sai juttu tehtud üleeilses börsipäevas ning mis kukkus samal päeval ligi 20%, on täna saamas positiivseid kommentaar Kaufmanilt:
Kaufman adds DISH to their Focus list saiyng they believe the bear case for DISH is overstated and the shares are oversold. The firm says DISH has reported three weak quarters in a row and lost out to DirecTV for a bundling partnership with AT&T, but they think the outlook of others has become too bearish. Firm says recent underperformance in part reflected a managed deceleration. DISH's recent underperformance was due to a delayed HD launch, efforts to cull lower quality subs and a partnership with AT&T that went sour last year.
Midagi uut siin ei öelda ja usun, et peale avamisejärgset positiivsust lokustakse pigem turuga kaasa. Dish on hoidnud kokku kvaliteedi pealt ja see on üsna pöördumatu protsess, mille tulemuseks on partnerite lahkumine. Arvatavasti näeme lähiajal aktsiat veel madalamatel tasemetel.
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Saksamaa DAX -0.29%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.38%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.84%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.32%
Venemaa MICEX -0.57%
Poola WIG +1.79%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.96%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.04%
Tai Set 50 -0.49%
India Sensex +1.52%
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The Best Way Is to Stay Out of the Way
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/1/2008 8:31 AM EDT
The most dangerous moment for a bad government is when it begins to reform.
--Alexis De Tocqueville
The market is clinging to the hope that various governmental reforms will save us from the massive amount of bad mortgage paper that is clogging the banking system. They are going to try to do everything they can, from changing the accounting rules to raising FDIC limits and putting the bad debt on the taxpayer's balance sheet.
The market bounced back sharply Tuesday on this news, but to a great degree, the rebound was a pretty standard technical rebound that occurs when things become too extreme. A big recovery by no means negates the damage that was done on Monday.
The problem this market faces is that there really isn't any great solution to the many issues that plague the economy right now. All of the things proposed are Band-Aids that may help in the fullness of time to restore confidence, but it is not going to happen overnight. You can be sure that as soon as some of these things are passed by Congress, the market is going to keep focusing on how many of the problems still exist.
My main job in this blog isn't to talk about political issues, but to help you find a way to best navigate this market. Unfortunately, the best way right now is to stay out of the way and let events unfold. The market is being driven by news and psychology right now, which render fundamentals and charts useless. If you want to play, you have to be willing to bet on the next political move or news headline.
There is nothing wrong with that. A lot of people make good money with that sort of trading, but if you have a time frame of longer than few days, you can't play that game. You have to try to determine the primary trend of the market, and then act accordingly. Right now, the primary trend is down. The huge bounce Tuesday did nothing to change that and may actually invite some selling and shorting in the near term.
The most dangerous thing you can do right now is believe that governmental reform is going to turn this market and start an uptrend. It is possible, but we need the market to actually act better before we believe it.
We have a mixed start this morning, as market players seem a bit confused after the giant swings of the last two days. Confidence is shaken, but traders still like the idea of trying to catch a bounce on the passage of a new bailout bill. That may give us some support, but the sellers are lurking.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LNDC +1.5%... Select solar stocks ticking higher with reports that the Senate's version of bailout plan includes $17 bln in tax credits for alternative energy, including solar: SOLF +3.6%, YGE +3.4%, CSIQ +2.4%, ESLR +2.4%, FSLR +1.5%... Other news: FRPT +26.5% (files outstanding SEC documents; reports significantly improved profitability for first half of fiscal 2008), TMA +24.6% (announces revised consideration for and further extension of the exchange offer; and the termination of the escrow), AGM +22.0% (raises $65 mln in capital through the issuance of senior preferred shares and appoints Michael Gerber as acting President and CEO), NCC +17.1% (still checking for anything specific), LYG +12.7% (Bloomberg.com reports Brown expresses confidence in deal between LYG and HBOS), RTP +5.0% (Australia's ACCC won't oppose BHP bid for Rio - WSJ), GOOG +3.4% (Nasdaq cancels "erroneous" trades in last-second sell-off), BHP +2.0% (Australia's ACCC won't oppose BHP bid for Rio - WSJ), MWIV +1.8% (will replace Photon Dynamics in the S&P SmallCap 600 after the close of trading on October 2).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: XRTX -5.1% (also downgraded to Sell at Calyon and downgraded to Buy at Needham)... Select financial related stocks showing weakness: WB -5.7%, AEG -5.1%, DB -3.6%, UBS -3.4%... Other news: BSX -7.3% (announces patent judgement; judge awarded JNJ damages in the amount of $406,670,987 and pre-judgment interest in the amount of $296,140,867), FCFS -1.7% (to discontinue Auto Master operations; associated with this decision, a non-cash charge of up to ~$1.75 per share will be reported in Q3)... Analyst comments: IR -3.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup). -
neto
Päris kindlasti on nii, et USA investorid toovad segastel aegadel raha koju. Põhjuseks siis see, et USA turg on reguleeritum, läbipaistvam, likviidsem. Segasel ajal on mõistlik raha kindlamas kohas hoida.
Teine põhjus ilmselt selles, et kui päästeplaan käiku läheb, siis ilmselt hakatakse võlakirju müüma ja neid saab osta dollarites. Et neid võlakirju osta, peab enne dollareid ostma. -
ei pea USD ostma võlakirjade ostuks, kui on EUR kontol ja ostad USDis, siis oled USD lühike ja EUR ning USA võlakiri pikk, lühike USD ja pikk EUR netivad üksteist ära ehk raha Sul ei ole, hea diil siis kui USD kui laenatava valuuta intress on madal ka EUR kui hoiustatava valuuta intress on kõrge ehk nagu praegu, aga kuna ka valuutaturg vaatab tuleviku, siis usutakse intressivahe vähenemist
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Henno
Selgita veel paari sõnaga. Kui aktsiates lähed lühikeseks, siis positsiooni müüja eelnevalt ikkagi korjab turult antud koguse aktsiaid ära ja siis laenab need sulle? Kui valuutas on sama, siis ikkagi keegi ostab eelnevalt USD ja siis laseb sul olla USD lühike?
Natuke segased mulle need lühikeseks mineku tagamaad. -
Capital Economics võtab ISM madala näidu kokku järgmiselt:
The collapse in the ISM manufacturing index to a seven-year low of 43.5 in September, from 49.9, is a clear illustration that the credit crunch is now beginning to have a profound impact on economic activity, both in the US and abroad.
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Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 4278K (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 2750K); gasoline inventories had a build of 901K (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 2050K); distillate inventories had a draw of 2359K (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 1500K).
Mida ma nüüd siit tahaksin välja tuua, on mootorkütuse varude kasv vastupidiselt oodatud langusele. Ameeriklased on vähendanud mootorkütuste tarbimist ja mitte vähe. Viimase kolme nädala keskmist võrreldes eelmise aasta sama perioodi kolme nädala keskmisega, on langus juba 4.5% (!). Nii suurt langust pole juba aastaid nõudluses olnud - isegi siis mitte, mil New Orleansis märatses kolm aastat tagasi Katrina nimeline orkaan. -
CNBC commentator says that according to SEC staffers, the commission is heavily leaning towards extending the short selling ban with the following exception: convertible preferred stocks.
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oskab keegi öelda, mis kell see bailout`i uus hääletus on USA-s?
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kas 03.30?
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GE General Electric halted, news pending (23.63 -1.87) -Update-
Turg võttis suuna allapoole, aga pigem on ikkagi midagi positiivset tulemas, alles nad ju alandasid guidance'it. -
viru1000,
Senat peaks hääletama kell 19.30ET ehk siis Eesti aja järgi 02.30. Kongress aga homme või siis reedel. -
Buffet teeb seda jälle, ka GE käest saab ta samasugustel tingimustel eelisaktsiaid: 3 aastat, 10% aastas, callable any time at 10% premium.
Selle peale on minu reaktsioon WHAT THE HELL?!?! GE MAKSAB 10% INTRESSI?!?! -
GE General Electric announces common stock offering; Warren Buffett announces investment in GE (23.63 -1.87) -Update-
Co announces plans to offer at least $12 bln of common stock to the public. The offering is expected to be priced prior to tomorrow's market open in the U.S. In addition, GE announced that it has reached agreement to sell $3 bln of perpetual preferred stock in a private offering to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). The perpetual preferred stock has a dividend of 10% and is callable after three years at a 10% premium. In conjunction with this offering, Berkshire Hathaway will also receive warrants to purchase $3 bln of common stock with a strike price of $22.25 per share, which is exercisable at any time for a five-year term. "The economic environment remains volatile. However, the company's performance remains on track with the earnings guidance we provided last week for 2008, including third quarter financial services earnings of ~$2 bln and industrial earnings growth of between 10 and 15%, excluding our Consumer & Industrial business." (stock halted)
Seega Buffett jätkab investeerimist USA suuretevõtetesse... Kuigi Buffettile makstavad intressid on tõepoolest küsimärk... -
+ veel warrantid $3 bln summas $22.25 pealt Buffetile.
Uskumatu, kui GE sugune firma sellistel tingimustel raha kaasab. -
Ilmselt on see AAA reitingu säilitamiseks tehtud samm GE -l.
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Turg võtab ilmselt seda negatiivselt ja ootaks päeva lõpuni mõningast müügisurvet. Nagu näha, ei oota GE olukorra kiiret paranemist, kui on nõus praegu nii uusi aktsiaid müüma kui ka 10% dividendi maksma eelisaktsiatele. Väga-väga negatiivne kõigi teiste, kehvemas olukorras olevate firmade jaoks.
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PS Täiesti müstika on see, kuidas kommentaatorid ja ajakirjanikud jne jne jne ei tee vahet common stockil ja preferred stockil.
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Their analysts? They don't know a preferred stock from livestock.
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Noh, nüüd on ju selge, et Buffet ongi sisenenud uuele, massiivsele turule. Kusjuures ta ise leiutas selle äri ja sellest saab tema ajaloo parim beezwacks. Oma nime müümine kõrilõikajalikel tingimustel. Enne oli public offering ja private placement, nüüd on lisaks ka Buffet placement.
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Ja mina veel arvasin, et loansharking on selline tegevus, millele altkulmu vaadatakse..
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Ja ongi ametlik, räägitakse, kuidas hakatakse pankadel käsi väänama, et nad ikkagi pikendaksid laene inimestele, kes seda nagunii endale seda lubada ei saanud, annaks uusi laene välja jne. Ehk siis forseeritakse täpselt sedasama tegevust, tänu millele praegusesse olukorda on jõutud üldse.
Peojärgsel hommikul hakatakse pohmakat ravima kohustusliku pudeli viinaga. -
Loansharking on taunitav eraisikute suhtes (pahatihti inimliku eksimuse või lihtsameelsuse põhjustet olukorrad) a la SMS Laen. Ettevõtluses - kui oled loll olnud, siis oma probleem. See, kui odavamat raha tõsta ei suuda on ettevõtluse puhul puhas oma valearvestus. Ei mingit probleemi. Hämmastav on see, et loansharkidelt tõstab Mom & Pop Interiors asemel raha GE ja GS. Näitab aegade pretsedenditust.
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Kuiu see sopp hajub siis vist Buffett duubeldab oma raha!
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Tehnoloogia turule täna tõsiseks ankruks, mida ei suudeta üles vedada.
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SEE TURG IMEB TÄIEGA.
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Long of the day: Cuba Libre (OMX Cuba: RUM).
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fyi mine cent oleks swing long IMCL up to 66
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minu*
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muidugi sel turul oleks märksa mõistlikum bet jimi soovitus long Cuba Libre (OMX Cuba: RUM).
