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Börsipäev 3. oktoober

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  • Kuuldavasti peaks täna Esindajatekoda finantssektorit abistava eelnõu osas, mis paar päeva tagasi maha hääletati, uuesti hääletama ca kell 19.30 Eesti aja järgi. Et siis tasub silmad ja kõrvad (veelgi rohkem) lahti hoida...
  • Kas positiivse otsuse peale ka mingi põrge tehakse on kahtlane. Samas on volatiivses kasvanud kõrgustesse ja arvan, et kui täna toimub ka mingi paanikamüük, siis see peaks küll (vähemalt lühiajaliselt) hea ostukoht olema.
  • velvo,

    ehk tehti sell the news reaktsioon eile ära?
  • minu cent oleks POT on up to 96,5 buy
  • Wells Fargo ostab Wachovia ära. WB eelturul 60% plussis, WFC 1% plussis.
  • Tingimused ka siia Briefingu vahendusel:

    WB Wachovia, Wells Fargo agree to merge; Wells Fargo to acquire all outstanding shares of common stock Wachovia in a stock-for-stock transaction (3.91 )

    WFC and Wachovia (WB) announce they have signed a definitive agreement for the merger of the two companies including all of Wachovia's banking operations in a whole company transaction requiring no financial assistance from the FDIC or any other government agency. Under the agreement, WFC will acquire all outstanding shares of common stock of WB in a stock-for-stock transaction. In the transaction, WFC will acquire all of WB and all its businesses and obligations, including its preferred equity and indebtedness, and all its banking deposits. Under terms of the agreement, which has been approved unanimously by the boards of both companies, WB shareholders will receive 0.1991 shares of Wells Fargo common stock in exchange for each share of Wachovia common stock. The transaction, based on Wells Fargo's closing stock price of $35.16 on October 2, 2008, is valued at $7.00 per WB common share for a total transaction value of approximately $15.1 bln. Wachovia has almost 2.2 bln common shares outstanding. The agreement requires the approval of Wachovia shareholders and customary approvals of regulators. Wells Fargo will record Wachovia's credit-impaired assets at fair value. The acquisition is expected to exceed Wells Fargo's internal rate of return goal and add to Wells Fargo's earnings per share in the first year of operations, excluding integration costs, write-downs, transaction charges, and credit reserve build. Wells Fargo expects to incur merger and integration charges of approximately $10 bln. To maintain its strong capital position, Wells Fargo intends to issue up to $20 bln of new Wells Fargo securities, primarily common stock.
  • Siinkohal tervitusi kõigile neile, kes mõni päev tagasi WB-d alla dollari ostsid.
  • Citi on siis sellest diilist eemale puksitud ja C aktsia eelturul -7%. Tulevased USA panganusturu jõujooned pannakse praegu paika.
  • mulle ei anna kah need väetisefirmad rahu. POT, AGU,CF,MOS,SQM,TRA.
    SQM vähemalt on globaalne värk. Teised?
    Kas lõunapoolkera kevad ja väetamise algus on mingi oluline point, kst.
  • Huvitav, kas intressimäärade kallale ka minnakse. Pärast TMT-jama oli usas Fed Funds 1% peal - praegu on jama ikka natuke suurem, mis?
  • Morgan Stanley alustas eile Salesforce'i (CRM) katmist Equal Weight soovitusega:

    "2H09 balance strong growth potential and positioning. CRM trades at a 30%+ premium to the software group based on CY09 P/FCF, and while we are bullish on the long-term growth outlook, we think multiple expansion requires billings to reaccelerate from 35% in 1H09 towards 40% YoY for FY09 (CRM’s long-term target). Given a difficult compare in 4Q, stronger dollar and weak IT environment, this will be difficult to achieve."

    UBS on oluliselt kriitilisem, langetades aktsia soovituse "osta" pealt "müü" peale. Muuseas tuuakse põhjuseks müügitsükli pikenemist.

    Müügisoovitust on eile kinnitanud ka Goldman Sachs, kelle hinnasiht on $44. Samas on Thomas Weisel jätkuvalt positiivne, hinnasiht $70. 

    CRMi lähitulevik just paljutõotav ei paista ning järgmised kvartalitulemused võivad investoritele päris suure pettumuse tuua.

  • Tundub, et MSCO-le ei anna ka rahu:

    :)

    Fertilizer valuations were reset yesterday based on an overreaction to an earnings “miss” which, combined with recent nitrogen / phosphate price weakness and an announced supply cut response, created an equity death spiral such that even a realistic Bear Case allows for a cash buyout over the next five years.

  • Tänane hoiatus California kubernerilt näitab krediidikriisi jubedust täies õuduses. California osariigil on raha otsa saamas ja keegi ei taha pakkuda krediiti:

    Schwarzenegger says to US: State may need $7-billion loan - LA Times

    LA Times reports California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, alarmed by the ongoing national financial crisis, warned Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson that the state might need an emergency loan of as much as $7 billion from the federal government within weeks. The warning comes as California is close to running out of cash to fund day-to-day government operations and is unable to access routine short-term loans that it typically relies on to remain solvent. The state of California is the biggest of several governments nationwide that are being locked out of the bond market by the global credit crunch. If the state is unable to access the cash, administration officials say, payments to schools and other government entities could quickly be suspended and state employees could be laid off.
  • TaivoS
    Mul õnnestus ka osta aga hiljem order tühistati! Kas Sul läks paremini?
  • Mõtlesin tõsiselt spekulatiivselt võtta, aga kuna pole eriti treider, jäi tehing ära, oli muude asjadega kiire ka. Toona võttes, poleks mul aktsiaid praeguseks enam tõenäoliselt käes ka.
  • Septembris vähenes mittepõllumajandussektoris töötavate inimeste arv USAs 159 000 inimese võrra. Oodati 105 000 töökoha kaotamist. Töötusmäär jäi 6.1% peale.
  • Vaatame numbrite sisse ka. Kõige rohkem vähendati töökohti jaemüügis, tööstuses (kuigi tööstuses on seekord töökohtade kaotamine väiksem, kui eelmine kord), ehituses ja erinevate äriteenustega seotud harudes. Lisati töökohti hariduses/tervishoius ja kaevanduses. Väike võrdlev tabel siia tuhandetes eelmise ja selle kuu kohta:

     august 08september 08
    Kogu mittepõllumajandussektor-84-159
    Kogu erasektor-101-168
    Kaupu valmistavad harud-57-77
    Maavarad ja kaevandus+12+9
    Ehitus-8-35
    Tööstus-67-51
    Finantsteenused-3-17
    Professionaalsed äriteenused-53-27
    Haridus ja tervishoid+55+25
    Valitsus+17+9
  • Kas on kuskil rohkem infot mis C-ga juhtus. Eelturul -13%, samal ajal kui muu värk plussis.
  • AloV Re: Börsipäev 3. oktoober 03/10/08 14:22
    Citi on siis sellest diilist eemale puksitud ja C aktsia eelturul -7%. Tulevased USA panganusturu jõujooned pannakse praegu paika.
  • (AIG) American Intl's Liddy says insurance entities strong, well-capitalized - DJ
    Kas võiks oodata veel tuge aktsiahinnale? Aktsia hetkel eelturul kauplemas $4.34 tasemel, +8.5% tõusus.
  • Turg läheb kehvade tööjõu numbrite peale hoopis üles, üleeile kehv ISM ja eile kehv factory orders number koos tänasega suurendab oluliselt FED intressimäära lõikamise võimalust
  • Henno, aitäh, ei tea kuidas see mul kahe silma vahele jäi.
  • Joel, tabelit vaadates ... ära rabista. Tähtis on kvaliteet mitte kvantiteet ;)
  • asto,

    Kriitika on õigustatud. Tabeli veergudes olid kuud tagurpidi läinud, nüüdseks korrigeerisin ära. Tänud.
  • Uskumatu, et WFC selle diili peale üleval on. Usk neisse (ja Buffetisse) on niivõrd suur, et paistab, et adekvaatne mõtlemine on ära kadunud. Wachovia option-ARM laenud on umbes sama nummid kui tuumajäätmed.
  • Eelturu WFC +6% tõusuga oleks WB aktsia ülevõtu hinnaks juba $7.43, kaupleb hetkel $6.87 tasemel, +75.70 % tõusus.
  • Sellisel juhul peaks ju C ost olema, sest saab jama kaelast ära.
  • No samas on Citi aktsia koledas miinuses.

    At the time, Citigroup Chief Executive Vikram Pandit said the acquisition offered a rare combination of potentially high returns and low risk.
    In a move that reflects how Citi was blindsided by the Wells-Wachovia deal, Citi placed a full-page ad touting its deal with Wachovia in newspapers across the country on Friday, including USA Today.
  • jim

    täiesti lambist oletus, aga kui WFC loodab need tuumajäätmed 700B programmi raames maha müüa veidi parema hinnaga kui ülevõtmise aktsiate vahetuse kursi määramisel arvestatud?
  • USA futuurid indikeerivad päeva avanemist ca 1% kõrgemalt tasemelt võrreldes eilsega.

    Saksamaa DAX +0.16%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.16%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.17%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.03%

    Venemaa MICEX -6.05%

    Poola WIG -1.75%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.94%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.90%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (börs suletud)

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (börs suletud)

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq N/A (börs suletud)

    Tai Set 50  -1.32%

    India Sensex N/A -4.05%

  • Traders Buy the Bad News
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/3/2008 9:01 AM EDT

    The jobs report came in weaker than expected, but the market seems to have been anticipating that, and the reaction is slightly positive, as we see traders buy the bad news. There is very likely to be speculation that the Fed will cut rates, and that may help the market, but at this point, such a move is a clear admission that we have some big problems, and I'm not sure it will help for very long.

    The focus now will quickly shift to the vote for the bailout bill that is supposed to take place today in the House. There are still some doubts that the votes are there, but intense lobbying is taking place, and there is pressure to get this thing done.

    The bigger question is whether it's going to matter that much to the market at this point. The way the market is acting doesn't look very promising. A rally on passage of the bill is very likely to invite some selling, and the geniuses have helped kill the chances of a short-squeeze, which is always a good way to get a counter trend moving.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GPN +9.1% (also upgraded to Neutral from Negative at Susquehanna Financial)... M&A news: WB +66.2% and WFC +3.1% (Wachovia, Wells Fargo agree to merge)... Select financial related stocks rebounding: NCC +19.1%, SOV +12.4%, LYG +11.0%, ABK +10.4%, RF +9.7%, BCS +7.9%, AIG +7.7% (to refocus as worldwide property and casualty company with continuing presence in foreign life), HIG +7.3%, DB +5.9%, PRU +5.7%, GNW +5.2%, CS +5.0%, ETFC +4.0%, MS +2.5%... Other news: GGP +14.1% (announces interim CFO and dividend suspension), CPST +7.8% (announces the signing of a new Distributor Agreement with Toan Thang for oil & gas applications and market segments in Vietnam), S +4.7% (gets interest from NI Holdings and PE firms for Nextel unit - WSJ), LINE +3.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), UL +2.5% (FT reports investors in Unilever are set to push the group to reinvent the way it operates), PBT +1.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: MET +3.7% (upgraded to Outperform at Keefe Bruyette), CSX +2.7% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), COST +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PENN -9.5% (also downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), MRVC -7.8%, LWSN -6.4% (also downgraded to Neutral at Amtech), ABMD -5.9%... Other news: MGA -17.7% (announces that Russian Machines' participation in arrangements with the Stronach Trust has terminated), C -12.2% (was in talks with Wachovia prior to today's WB/WFC merger announcement), ALU -4.5% (still checking), SAP -3.3% (falls after Goldman Sachs cuts share price estimate - Bloomberg.com), DEO -1.7% (still checking), LRY -1.0% (announces pricing of its 4.75 mln share common stock secondary offering at $33/share - DJ)... Analyst comments: ADBE -2.0% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), CMI -1.9% (downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia), WAG -1.3% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), STLD -1.2% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill).
  • TED spread teeb uusi tippe, praegu väärtus 3,85. Ja turg on ikkagi üleval?
  • Long natuke WFC putte.. isegi kui stock ära ei kuku, siis volatiilsus peaks kindlasti tõusma.
  • Turul käivad kuulujutud, et Steve Jobs sai südameataki ja on haiglasse viidud. Aktsia näitas korraks nõrkust, kuid kosus kohe tagasi. Tõenäoliselt valehäire...
  • September ISM Services 50.2 vs 50.0 consensus, prior 50.6
  • Rev Shark kirjutab Realmoney all väga tabavalt eelpool mainitud Steve Jobsi kuulujutu kohta:

    AAPL is now on the wires dening the rumor about Steve Jobs. This is the stuff the SEC should be looking at instead of idiotic bans on shorts.
  • (C) Citigroup weighing possible lawsuit over Wachovia deal - CNBC
  • mis hinnaga ostsid ja millega müüsid putid?
  • Näed sa siis... on veel finantssektori varasid küll, mille pärast teistele turja karata
  • 37.5 oktoobri putid olid, $2.4 > $3.1 umbes.
  • Mina, oma C putist ka lahti. 22,5 OCT $2.50>3.70.
    Aga ma arvan, et esmaspäeval tuleb hetk kus uuesti positsiooni saab võtta.
  • Hääletus algas, 15 minuti pärast peaks selguma, kas tuli "JAH"
  • Selgub see tõenäoliselt varem, peamiselt tuleb ilmselt jälgida Republican Yay/Nay/NV.
  • House vote update: 103 Yea, 39 Nay

    Bill needs 218 votes to pass
  • tundub, et "bill" läheb seekord läbi, aga turg ei taha kuidagi rallima hakata.

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