Börsipäev 15. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Morgan Stanley on langetamas Mastercardi (MA) kasumiprognoose ja hinnasihti ($320 --> $235). Kuigi EPSi vähendatakse, oodatakse järgmise kolme aasta jooksul vähemalt 20%-list kasumikasvu, mis peaks endiselt olema atraktiivne väärtusinvestorite jaoks. Eriti arvestades, et aktsia kaupleb alates 2006. aasta IPOst madalaimal ettevaataval P/E suhtel (üllatus üllatus).
We see 20%+ EPS growth over the next three years, and believe the company has several unique defenses to preserve earnings growth: 1) advertising and marketing expenses (20% of revenue) could be flattish or decline;2) G&A costs (39% of revenue) could decelerate; 3) rebates should slow as payments growth weakens; and 4) MA’s position as a revenue driver to its customers may cushion the ongoing impact of bank consolidation.
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Raamatus Heast Suurepäraseks on toodud ühe eeskujuna Fannie Mae, sest läbis tiheda analüütikute sõela ning vastas kõigile heast suurepäraseks vajalikele tingimustele. Põhi edu point oli see, et deregulatsiooni ajal leidis see firma geniaalse võimaluse ja võime kodulaenude riske hinnata ning neid paketeerida ja edasi kindlustada.. :). Tänaseks siis asi selge, et geniaalne mudel feilis..
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Capital Economics on kurjakuulutavate sõnadega väljas Hispaania kinnisvaraturu kohta:
The latest Spanish house price data provide further evidence that the housing market is set for a hard landing. We expect house price falls of around one third over the next few years to push the economy into a prolonged recession. -
Venemaa börs jälle kinni seoses tugeva langusega ... kaua nii saab jätkata? Tuleks ikkagi börs lahti hoida ja langus lihtsalt ära keelata.
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Ohhoo - mina arvasin, et seal feilas kinnisvaraturg juba paar aastat tagasi! :-p
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Henno, ma just paar päeva tagsi mõtlesin, et nad võiks Vene börsi kinni hoidagi aga samas ametlikult iga päev teatada, et hinnad tõusid kuigi tehinguid ei tehtud. Kõik oleksid rahul.
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Putin pidi ju Vene börsi ülesse ostma. Kus see jutupaunik nüüd on !
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uusi soovitusi USA päästeplaani autoritele .... riik võiks pankade päästmise kõrval siseneda ka kinnisvaraturule? :)
Problem of home prices remains - WSJ
WSJ reports the Treasury Department's rescue plan for the U.S. financial industry doesn't directly address the root cause of the crisis: falling home prices. The government's plan, which includes taking stakes in major financial institutions and temporarily guaranteeing certain new bank debt, could cushion the economy and thus the housing market from further blows. But many economists say additional measures are needed to stimulate demand for homes and to reduce mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures. At the heart of the rescue plan is an effort to keep the credit crunch from sending the economy into a tailspin. But some economists say the government needs to do more to address the underlying problems that triggered the credit crisis. "It's very disappointing" that the plan doesn't do anything "to stop the spiral in home prices," which is reducing net worth and creating a falloff in consumer spending, says Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein. -
Putin ootab soodsamaid hindu
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Tõepoolest, Vene turu puhul ei jaksa enam igast peatamisest ja alustamisest enam teatadagi. Lisaks terve turu peatamisele on nad päevasiseselt hakanud harrastama üksikute aktsiatega kauplemise peatamist.
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Wells Fargo beats by $0.08 (33.52 ) Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.49 per share, $0.08 better than the First Call consensus of $0.41; revenues fell 9.4% year/year to $10.38 bln vs the $10.96 bln consensus.
eelturul kerge positiivsus, aga see esmane reaktsioon ei loe ... abesiki, kas WFC väike short välja või hoiad edasi? -
WFC lööb EPSi osas ootusi ($0.49 vs $0.41), müügitulu osas jäädakse alla ($10.38 miljardit vs $10.96 miljardit). Aktsia on eelturul ca 3% kõrgemal. Deposiidid jooksevad Wells Fargosse:
We saw a tremendous inflow of deposits in the latter part of the quarter, especially at the end of September reflecting what we believe is a significant flight to quality." Loans 90 days or more past due and still accruing totaled $8.44 bln, $7.26 bln, and $5.53 bln at September 30, 2008, June 30, 2008, and September 30, 2007, respectively. -
Ja nüüd olin mina aeglane...
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Nu tulemused annavad küll börsile boosti.Ilmselt täna näeme ilusat rohelust.
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palju kehva makrot USA poolelt, turgude esmane reaktsioon kõvasti alla
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mnjah, suht ilusas tulemused WFC-lt. Eriti see osa "We saw a tremendous inflow of deposits in the latter part of the quarter, especially at the end of September reflecting what we believe is a significant flight to quality."
juhul kui keegi märkab commente stock offeringu osas võiks teada anda. -
Makro rõõmustav pole jah... aga eks see ole ka põhjus, miks globaalsel tasandil valitsused majandust rahaga üle uputada üritavad ja päästa, mis päästa annab.
October Empire Manufacturing -24.6 vs -10.0 consensus, prior -7.4
September Retail Sales Ex-Autos -0.6% vs -0.2% consensus; prior revised to -0.9% from -0.7%
September Core PPI y/y +4.0% vs +3.8% consensus, prior +3.6%
September core PPI m/m 0.4% vs. 0.2% consensus, prior 0.2%
September Retail Sales -1.2% vs -0.7% consensus; prior revised to -0.4% from -0.3%
September PPI y/y +8.7% vs +8.6% consensus, prior +9.6%
September PPI m/m -0.4% vs. -0.4% consensus, prior -0.9% -
Credit Spreads: Overnight Libor 2.14%, -0.04; 3-mo Libor 4.55%, -0.08; TED Spread 4.28%, -0.09
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Halb makro? Ma ei saa aru, kas keegi on jube üllatunud või, et pärast sellist deflatsioonilist shokki keegi midagi osta ei taha? Või on keegi ÜLLATUNUD, et recession käes on? Pikkade juhtmete sündroom...
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Karumõmm ... kehv headline lugejate jaoks, millest ka turu esmane reaktsioon :)
NY State indeks on küsitlus ja volatiilsetel aegadel ei ole need enamasti parim indikaator, emotsioonid möllavad ka vastajate hulgas, jaemüük on ka kindlasti väga emotsionaalne number, lisaks rahakoti sisu kuivamisele paneb täna ka hirm isegi ameeriklase vähem tarbima -
President Bush discusses govt financial plans; notes govt will be a passive investor in private companies
riik pankades, riik kinnisvaras, riik private equitys? -
Riik pankrotis?
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: ) Hea, Tarantel
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Saksamaa DAX -3.59%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -3.47%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -4.16%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -2.30%
Venemaa MICEX -8.68%
Poola WIG -4.72%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.06%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -4.96%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.12%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.68%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.52%
Tai Set 50 -4.79%
India Sensex 30 -5.87%
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Earnings and Economic News Come to the Fore
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/15/2008 7:45 AM EDT
True genius resides in the capacity for evaluation of uncertain, hazardous and conflicting information.
-- Winston Churchill
Now that the big bank rescue plan is under way, many market players are relieved that a dramatic collapse of our financial system has been averted. That, along with very oversold technical conditions, is what produced the record-setting bounce on Monday.
However, it would be foolish to assume that it is clear sailing from here. We still have many issues to grapple with, such as whether this big bailout plan really will work as hoped. Although there has been some thawing, the credit markets are still highly dysfunctional, and that needs to change before the stock market will benefit much.
Even if the bank bailout does help the credit markets, we still have major economic issues. We're going to see a lot of negative fallout from this credit crisis, and the key for the stock market is whether it has been priced in or not.
The only disagreement among economists about a recession is how long and deep it will be. Already there are predictions that unemployment will spike to more than 7.5% and earnings estimates are seen as 30% or more too high.
While those things sound quite dire, they need not kill the market if they are anticipated and already discounted. That is why this earnings season is going to be very important. We are going to see how much bad news this market is already expecting.
The big report from Intel (INTC) is so far receiving a favorable reception, and we also have Genentech (DNA) , Abbott (ABT) and JPMorgan (JPM) trading up on their reports. That is a start, but the big question is whether sustained buying will kick in.
Between economic reports and earnings, this market has some major hurdles to jump if it is going to start to trend upward, but what will really tell us the story is the technical action in the indices.
What we have technically right now is a massive downtrend and crash followed by a big, one-day, oversold bounce. While that has the potential of creating a low, we haven't seen anything yet to give us assurance that an uptrend is about to begin. The market will need to go through a series of pullbacks and rallies that create a trading range that holds before we can feel more comfortable about the possibility of upside.
Right now we are at the important stage of trading where we are trying to determine if our big bounce is going to be eroded by nervousness and profit-taking. Will there be bargain-hunters to provide some underlying support, or will there be a tendency to sell now that the big bailout news is all out? The way a pullback plays out in the next week or so -- especially as earnings and economic news hits -- is going to tell us an awful lot about the health of this market.
So what do we do at this point? It is still premature to build longer-term positions. You are not going to find good charts. We are still at a stage where all that matters is macroeconomic concerns, which can make for good intraday trading of the high levels of volatility, but you can forget trying to evaluate the state of individual stocks. They are all hostage to the big picture. Until volatility slows, individual stock-picking is going to very difficult.
So play the short-term movements if you are so inclined and don't worry about longer-term positions. Their time will eventually come, but it isn't here yet.
We have a flat start to the day as we continue to digest Monday's big move. More profit-taking and repositioning is a big danger at this point, especially if we don't get much going on this morning's news flow.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TSL +7.1%, KO +6.8%, ALTR +5.8%, DNA +3.9% (also upgraded to Buy at Piper and upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), INTC +3.0%... Other news: LYG +7.4% (checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: LVS +7.2% (upgraded to Overweight at Weisel), BYD +4.2% (upgraded to Overweight at Weisel), AAPL +2.0% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), WYNN +1.4% (upgraded to Overweight at Weisel), CRM +1.1% (upgraded to Buy at Soleil).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LLTC -15.8%, DAL -4.8%, STT -4.7%, SCHW -4.6%, ASML -4.3%, JNY -4.1%, JPM -1.8%, WFC -1.2%... Select financial related stocks trading lower: KEY -11.9%, ING -9.4%, GS -6.8%, C -5.7% (Citi's rally ignores data like losses - WSJ), MS -3.6%, AIG -3.6%, DB -3.3%, BAC -2.3%, CIT -1.8% (announces $0.10 quarterly dividend and intention to sell approx. $8 mln of common equity)... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: AAUK -12.4%, RTP -8.9% (says long term outlook for co remains positive despite the upheavals in global markets; Chinese economy is pausing for breath), BBL -8.8%, BHP -7.8%, FCX -7.2%, RIO -6.5%, MT -5.0%... Select drybulk shippers trading lower: EXM -10.3%, FRO -6.3%, DRYS -6.2%, DSX -2.8%... Other news: UN -4.7% and UL -3.3% (still checking for anything specific), NOK -3.3% (still checking)... Analyst comments: EBAY (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), STM (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), DELL (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), -
Fed drains $25 bln with overnight reverse repo operation
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tuleb lugeda siis minu mõte WFC short möödapanekuks
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Lisatud kaubeldavate aktsiate nimekirja.
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ECB announces change to expand collateral framework-- Bloomberg
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Suffiks, sa kavatsed seda osta või müüa? :)
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Ostsin juba. Ma sain nädal aega tagasi PGH-ga rämedalt vastu lõugu, aga sektori suhtes olen ma kõike arvestades positiivne. Viimane nädal, ma pakuks on heki fondide likvideerimine. Praegu kauplevad PGH/PWE/HTE ca 1,6-2% peal kuus. Sisuliselt hindab turg sisse distributsioonide cutti ca 50% võrra, mis omakorda peaks tähendama prolonged periods of sub $50/bbl ja $6/mmbtu. Arvestades, et maailm langetas valiku hüperinflatsiooni kasuks, ei taha ma uskuda, et see olukord manifesteerub.
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Ehk ma selgitan veel, et lühiajaliselt võib mis iganes juhtuda, aga pikem periood madalaid energiahindu eeldaks ikka korralikku depressiooni. See aga tähendaks omakorda oluliselt suuremaid probleeme. Ehk minu loogika kohaselt, kui tuleb Uus Suur Depressioon, on canroyd ikka veel kallid , kui ikkagi inflateeritakse end probleemidest välja ehk nafta jääb pikaajaliselt näiteks $60 juurde töllerdama, siis on nad ikka üpris odavad.
Kõik eelnev ei ole käsitletav investeerimisnõuandena ega soovitusena üldse midagi teha, mitte teha, teha laisalt, valesti, õigesti, vastumeelselt või hea meelega. -
Võtan päevase treidina SPY long at 95.0...
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Proovin püüda 2 punkti JOYG-l, sisenemine 27.54. Stopp 27 all.
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Hüppan peipsi järve.. sisenen Kallastelt.
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Kui 95-st spy läbi kukub? kus siis pidamine oleks???
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pikaajalise ideena suurendasin pikka positsiooni III samba pensionifondis ... vaevalt sel aastal palju soodsamaid ostukohti tuleb 2009. aasta kevade tulumaksutagastuse mõttes :)
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upser,
Hard stoppe niivõrd volatiilsel turul ise ei kasuta... Pool esmaspäevasest hiigeltõusust on käest ära antud ja usun, et päris palju on praegu väljas kurisalakaval näoga kauplejaid, kes ootavad rallijärgset korrektsiooni, et siseneda. Korrektsioon (-5% päev) on minu arvates siin... -
Suffiksil on see changewave jutt, nagu näha :)
TRUST IN ENERGY
Before we begin a discussion of our Canadian energy trusts, the first thing you need to know is that the panic in the trusts was market based, not based on fundamentals. The sell-off is way overextended.
This is apparent when you consider that Penn West Energy's (PWE) market cap is just slightly above three times its cash flow. The current $3.84 dividend (27% yield) was supported at $60 oil and $6 natural gas, which will be the low-end of energy prices in this global recession.
To put it another way, the trusts are priced today as if oil prices are going to $35 to $40 per barrel and natural gas to $4 per mcf! Our low-end target for oil remains in the range of $65 to $70 -- the marginal lifting cost for new offshore oil wells. This production will go offline or into storage and off the market at these prices. With a normal winter, natural gas will range between $6 and $10.
The low price for oil since Hurricane Katrina was $50.48 on Jan. 10, 2007. PWE was priced at $27 with exactly the same dividend rate.
Obviously, PWE as well as Advantage Energy (AAV) and Provident Energy Trust (PVX), among others, were heavily owned by hedge funds that were indiscriminately liquidated last week. These positions got liquidated on margin calls and hedge fund implosions (i.e., forced selling). The amount of volume was breathtaking -- the entire float of some trusts changed hands in the first 10 days of October.
It's also clear that many retail investors owned the trusts with leverage, got margin calls and could not meet them. (This is why we advise trust owners to hold them in accounts separate from other stocks). -
Kusjuures ma polnud seda lugenud. Aga väga hea. Anna link.
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See 95 on miu silmis ka koht, kust põrge peaks tulema, aga ma pigem mõtlesin, et kui sealt läbi põrutab, kus siis pidur oleks?
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Ok, saan aru et see on subscription service. Millegi nii triviaalse eest $300 aastas maksta oleks tiba ghey.
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Canroy-de kohta lisaks, et mitmedki neist on hedgenud müüdava nafta 80$ kanti pikaks ajaks ette. HTE lepingud pidavat ntx. kehtima 2009 juunini.
50-70% aktsiahinna langust nafta hinna tipust allatuleku järel .. Ja kasumit teeniti korralikult ka enne nafta hinnabuumi. -
Kusjuures, alati on võimalus, et ma eksin, aga minu meelest panevad need mehed tiba pekki. "To put it another way, the trusts are priced today as if oil prices are going to $35 to $40 per barrel and natural gas to $4 per mcf!". Nii optimistlik mina ei oleks, sest selliselt tasemel minu näppudel arvutus näitab, et sisuliselt mingit raha välja jagamiseks ei jääks. St see $35-40/bbl oleks pikema aja peale divikatele surmahoop. PWE ja PGH kulud per boe on suurusjärgus $30+, millest küll osa on turuhinnast sõltuvad maksud, aga ikkagi. Nondel hindadel tõmmataks ilmselt capex miinimumini.
to: crom
standard on, et pool toodangust on hekitud aastaks ja kellel kuidas edasi. PWE on näiteks 2009-ks ainult ca 5% hekkinud (mälu pealt). Igal juhul nende hinda määrab spot suht marginaalselt, kuna rallit ei tehtud kaasa ehk sisuliselt määrab nende hinda nafta/gaasi trend ja pikk nägemus. Korraliku depressiooni korral ehk naftahinna täieliku kräshi tingimustes võiks nad kohe kodinad kokku pakkida, kuna nad suhteliselt kõrgete kuludega ja vaenulikus keskkonnas (Alberta royalty tax + kanada valitsuse nuga kõrri anno 2006). -
Nonii,see 11% tõus tahetakse juba ära süüa.SP juba täna -5%+
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Keegi võiks nendele ChangeWave tüüpidele öelda, et nafta ei hüppa ise maa seest välja tavaliselt, tootmisega kaasnevad ikka kulud ka.
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Royality tax-iga seoses on veel lollide lohutus, et see tulemata jääb või edasi lükkub.
Naftahind alla 50$ pikemaks ajaks ? Raske uskuda, et mõnede riikide rahva poolt palavalt armastatud juhid sellise olukorraga nõus on ;) Arvaks, et isegi Saudid akkavad kraane kinni keerama sellise hinna juures .. -
Chesapeake Energy: BP exploring deal to buy gas assets from Chesapeake Energy - WSJ
