Börsipäev 20. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Citi on trading callina soovitamas USA ehitajat MDC Holdingut (MDC). Eile avaldatud analüüsis tõstetakse soovitus varasema "hoia" tasemelt "osta" peale, kuid hinnasihti langetakse $37-ni (eelmine $48).
Viidatakse bilansi tugevusele ning soodsale hinnatasemele, mis pakuvad kaitset edasise languse vastu. Kui aga kinnisvarasektorit iseloomustavad näitajad peaksid paranema, võiks MDC aktsia olla tõusjate esirinnas.
Kuna Citi on kogu sektori suhtes karune, võib ühe ettevõtte upgrade buy tasemele huvi tekitada küll. Turg on samuti plussis, seega MDC võiks täna märgatavalt kõrgemal kaubelda.
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USA aktsiaturud on hetkel indikeerimas avanemist ca 2% kõrgemalt võrreldes reedeste hindadega.
Sel nädalal väga palju majandussündmusi tulemas ei ole ning pearõhk saab olema ettevõtete tulemustel. Jälgimise lihtsustamiseks olen taaskord koostanud tulemuste tabeli ja link sellele on siin.
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LM Ericsson upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
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Morgan Stanley meeskond on kohtunud Chesapeake Energy (CHK) juhtkonnaga ning kuigi tunnistavad, et lühiajalisele tegevuse finantseerimisele lahenduse leidmine on võtmeks, siis üldiselt tuldi tagasi positiivsete emotsioonidega.
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(AMAT) Applied Materials on lisatud Goldmani conviction Buy listi, eelneva Sell soovituse pealt. Aktsia juba eelturul +3.42% $12.40 tasemel.
Pre-Market Trader buys 5K AMAT based on stock being added to Goldman Conviction Buy List, upgraded from Sell... stock trading at $12.37 in pre-mkt -
Deutsche Banki uus nägemus:
Growth in the industrial countries is seen falling to its lowest level since the Great Depression and global growth to 1.2%, its lowest level since the severe downturn of the early 1980s. In the US, we are now calling for US GDP to contract 1% in 2009 but, more importantly to sentiment, 4Q08 is expected to contract 4.5%. Europe is expected to contract 1.4% in 2009.
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Negatiivsed ootused on ikka päris võimsaks paisunud...
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Aga midagi huvitavat täna siia.
Küsin kähku ära, kas keegi teab, miks on tänasel plussiga algaval börsipäeval Cryptologicu (CRYP) ask 2 senti reedesest close'st madalam? Kirjutan vastuse ka kohe.. Aga seniks nuputamist.
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CRYP-i tarkvara kasutanud gamblingu hiid William Hill kolis PTEC-ga mesti?
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Vastus CRYPi küsimusele
20. veebruaril aastal 2007 kirjutasime LHV Pro all järgmist: "- Nagu varem mainiti, uuendati leping William Hilliga kolmeks aastaks sarnastel tingimustel nagu varemgi. Lisaks avati William Hilli Hispaania pokkerisait."
Seega CRYPil oli ettevõtte jaoks väga olulise ja suure kliendi William Hilliga leping olemas aastateks 2007, 2008 ja 2009. Täna on aga Playtech väljas teatega, et on pakkumas omalt poolt alates 2009. aasta jaanuarist William Hillile kasiino ja pokkeri tarkvara kõrvuti olemasoleva provideriga (loe: CRYPiga) ning alates 2010. aasta jaanuarist alates on Playtechil juba eksklusiivõigused William Hillile. Playtech (Londoni börsil PTEC.L) on väga-väga huvitav ettevõte investeerimiseks tänastelt tasemetelt. Deutsche Bank on täna väljas ka ettevõte hinnasihi kergitamisega 800 penni peale. See on tänasest 385 pennilisest turuhinnast üle kahe korra enam. Aktsia kaupleb DB värskelt 20% võrra tõstetud kasumiprognoose arvestades ca 8.5x 2009. aasta kasumit, võtab võimsalt kliente kogu tööstusharus, oodatav dividendimäär 2008. aastal on 3.8% ja 2009. aastal 4.8% ning on fundamentaalselt odavaks muutunud.
Playtechi edu on aga samaaegselt väga valus löök CRYPile. Kui palju aktsia siit veel kukkuda võiks, on raske öelda, kuna kaubeldakse niigi cash per share lähedal, kuid märkamata see uudis turu jaoks jääda ei tohiks.
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Tubli Taavi. Kiired reaktsioonid!
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Saksamaa DAX +0.94%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.61%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +2.16%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +2.06%
Venemaa MICEX +1.93%
Poola WIG +0.53%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +3.59%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +5.28%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.24%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +3.47%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.26%
Tai Set 50 +1.59%
India Sensex 30 +2.48%
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Wait for the Trend
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/20/2008 8:12 AM EDT
Markets change, tastes change, so the companies and the individuals who choose to compete in those markets must change.
-- An Wang
The great challenge of this market right now is the tremendous volatility we are seeing. The swings are at record levels, and it is impossible to trust any move to last for longer than a day.
Navigating in this environment requires a very different approach than many of us are used to. The buy-and-holders will continue to do what they always do and just hold on blindly and hope, but for those of us who employ money management schemes where we attempt to limit losses and ride gains, the challenges are tremendous.
We basically have three choices for dealing with this market right now. We can take a Warren Buffett approach, where we buy what we assume are good stocks and plan to hold for the next 10 years or so. In that case, we just ignore the giant swings and hope that things eventually improve.
The next approach is to be a daytrader. Obviously this isn't a good style for most people. You have to watch the market every minute and be willing to move in and out at lightning speed. The good news is that if you are adept, the swings have been so big that they pay off nicely. However even for the daytrader, the level of volatility is so high that it is very easy to be suddenly whipsawed.
The safest approach for most investors is to simply wait for volatility to slow. Eventually these swings will slow down and a new trend will emerge. Before that happens, we could easily see the DJIA move up and down 1,000 points again.
Keep in mind that the key to making money isn't to catch the absolute bottom but to catch the market as it begins to trend upward. Trying to catch the low is an extremely dangerous game to play and can lead to steep losses if your timing is off. It is far safer to look for the beginning of a trend and then to use fairly tight stops and other money management disciplines to ensure that you protect capital in the event an early trend does not develop further.
Position trades and technical trades just aren't working in this market right now. There are no good chart setups -- all we have is a bunch of broken formations with some big recent swings. It is possible that volatility will slow and good charts will eventually develop, but it is going to take some time.
As I've discussed, the technical action after the crash of 1987 is what this market needs. After some big swings, things calmed down and an excellent trading market emerged. Many folks say that our macro environment is so different that we shouldn't expect things to develop in a similar way, but so far things look very similar; we'll have to see if the pattern continues.
High levels of volatility indicate a very high level of uncertainty. Market players are confused and don't know what to do, but eventually they will become more certain and that will lead to a new trend. It is possible that the new trend may be even lower, but until things calm down, we aren't going to be able to do much unless we use a daytrader's approach or an ultra-long-term approach.
We have a positive open on the way this morning as most of the news is generally positive. There are lots of earnings on tap this week to keep things tricky but market players are hoping that we've priced in the worst and are ready to stabilize.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ERIC +18.4%, WFT +7.9% (light volume), HAL +6.2%, CHL +2.0%... M&A news: PSUN +20.2% (Adrenalina proposes to acquire PacSun for $4.50/share), NRG +21.6% (Exelon offers to acquire NRG Energy in all-stock transaction valued at $26.43/share)... Select financial names showing strength: ING +11.6% (The Netherlands to provide $13 bln to the ING Groep - NY Times), BCS +9.5%, AIG +8.1%, ETFC +6.8%, MS +3.3%, BAC +3.3%, GS +1.9%... Select oil/gas related names trading higher with a number of analyst upgrades and higher spot prices: Oppenheimer upgraded the sector and a number of individual names including BP +8.8%, TSO +8.1%, VLO +4.9%, APA +3.8%, COP +3.8%, EOG +2.3%, XOM +1.6%; other names trading higher include: CHK +8.5%, TOT +7.9%, RDS.A +6.2%, RIG +3.3% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley)... Select solar names showing strength: YGE +10.8% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman-DJ), LDK +7.0% (signs seven-year wafer supply contract), ESLR +4.8%, CSIQ +4.2%, FSLR +3.0%, TSL +2.1% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman- DJ)... Select metals/mining names showing strength with higher spot prices: MTL +6.8%, RTP +6.0%, AUY +5.8%, GOLD +2.8%, GLD +2.1%... Bond insurers trading higher after NY Insurance Commissioner Dinallo appeared on CNBC this morning discussing the idea of using a portion of the TARP on bond insurers: ABK +11.7%, MBI +5.3%... Other news: EMKR +14.9% (Emcore mentioned positively in Barron's), SNE +10.8% (up in sympathy with ERIC), NOK +6.4% (still checking), MRK +1.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: AMAT +3.8% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman-DJ), KFT +3.4% (upgraded to Buy at UBS),SPWRA +2.4% (upgraded to Hold at Societe Generale), PFE +2.0% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ELOS -12.2%, MAT -4.2%... M&A news: HLTH -23.1% (HLTH Corp and WebMD Health announce termination of merger agreement), EXC -2.8% (Exelon offers to acquire NRG Energy in all-stock transaction valued at $26.43/share)... Other news: VE -22.3% (cuts investment and cash flow outlook - FT), SSCC -8.7% (announces permanent closure of Pontiac Pulp Mill), AMAG -6.1% (receives complete response letter from FDA for Ferumoxytol; co believes it can address the issues raised by the FDA in a timely manner), MT -2.5% (still checking)... Analyst comments: PRU -7.9% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman- DJ), MET -2.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman- DJ). -
September Leading Indicators +0.3% vs -0.1% consensus, prior -0.9%
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arvan, et WFC võib haiget saada täna
WFC Wells Fargo: Hearing some negative chatter surrounding the WFC secondary (32.27 +0.23)
peaks olema short trade -
CRYPi short idee rikkus ära nende Eesti aja järgi kell 16.30 tehtud teade, et on tehtud 5 aastane litsentsileping PartyGaminguga. Hoiti teadet mustadeks päevadeks, mil turg saab teada, et William Hillist jäädakse ilma? (Või siis rõõmustavad investorid selle üle, et PartyGaminguga tehti leping, kuid William Hilliga kursis olevaid turuosalisi on praegu lihtsalt liiga vähe...)
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Kas CRYPti short idee on veel lahti? Stock on päris hea vastlaliu teinud kevadest saadik. Kas kasumit ei võeta? Nullini pole ju väga palju maad enam ja kui tuleb "but if"..
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jyriado, CRYP pole ametliku short ideena kordagi üleval olnud.
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White House says open to idea of second stimulus package but depends on details proposed by Congress - Reuters
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Fed's Lockhart says expects economic weakness to persist for some time into 2009 - Reuters
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selge, mul pole lihtsalt Pro ligipääsu.
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Kas keegi mäletab, mis hinnaga aktsia kohta WFC pidi WB üle võtma - kas see oli 7 taala
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0.1991 WFC aktsiat 1 WB aktsia kohta.
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2008-10-20
Clean Era(Hydrogen Energy) is Reachable
Seoul, 2008-10-20 (Korea Newswire) -- Director of S&P Energy Research Institute (SPERI), Doctor of Science Sen Kim said on the 20th October that the company’s slogan, “Clean Energy for Clean Era” is early reachable.
Dr. Sen Kim (Academician of the European Academy of Natural Science), who has been developing methods of cleaning the greenhouse gases in SPERI since February 2008.
He said “Our laboratory tests show that CO2, CH4, or N2O was dissociated by low energy. We also confirmed that hydrogen (H2) and vapor(H2O) was dissociated with similar efficiency (90% or more). Traditionally hydrogen is made by electrolysis. The electrolytic method uses 4-4.5 kwh energy for getting 1 cubic meter of hydrogen. Our method uses 0.1 kwh for the same volume of hydrogen. As known the high cost of electrolytic H2 does not allow to use it as a fuel.
Manufacturing the H2 by our method will lower the cost of H2 as much as 20-30 times. A hydrogen energy is clean (It’s water when it is burned). Plenty of water is available on the earth. A hydrogen energy can be called “permanent clean energy”
News Source: S&P Energy
Media Contact: S & P Energy Co Ltd. 82-31-777-3121
Web Site: http://www.clean-energy.kr
Ei kommentaari! -
Proovin DUG long $45.50, siht $46.75 ja stop oleks $45 all. Oluline ka nafta ja XOM,CVX liikumine, kui lähevad uusi tippe tegema siis esimesel võimalusel pos. kinni.
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Nasdaq on kännu taga kinni?
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DUG positsioonis veel sees, kuna XOM,CVX peaksid natukene järgi andma. Proovin esimesel võimalusel positsiooni sulgeda ja langetan sihti $46.50 peale. Usun, et nafta peale piti sulgemist annab kergelt järgi.
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DUG-st väljas, päevalõpu sagimine võib liiga karmiks osutuda, seega punktine liikumine laualt ära korjatud.
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AlariÜ kas praegu ei tasuks DUG-is lühikeseks minna, peaks 35ni vajuma?
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Kahjuks ei ole DUG hetkel shorditav, kuid idee on hea, kuna suurimad komponendid XOM ja CVX peaks korralikult kosuma. Siiski hoiataks, et tegemist on üli volatiilse instrumendiga, alles neljapäeval tehti aasta tipud $69.75.
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10/10 käis $85 peal
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Milleks shortida DUGi?? Õigemini, seda ei saagi praegu teha.
DUGi shortimine võrdub tegelikult DIGi ostmisega. DUG panustab kahekordse võimendusega Dow Jones U.S. Oil& Gas indeksi langusele, DIG aga kahekordselt selle tõusule.
Ehk osta DUGi, kui usud, et energiasektori ettevõtted kukuvad ja osta DIGi, kui usud, et energiasektori ettevõtted tõusevad. Mõlema instrumendiga kaasneb kahekordne võimendus. -
Ostad DIG-i ja shordid DUG-i, saad 4-kordse võimenduse (*) :-)
(*) Ärge nii tehke, isegi kui saaks -
eiei, ostad DIG-i ja riskide maandamiseks võtad DUG-i. täpselt samapalju.
