Börsipäev 21. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Eile õhtul teatas oma tulemused American Express (AXP). Aktsiapõhist kasumit teeniti $0.74, mis on ppdatust 15 sendi võrra enam. Tulud jäid see-eest oodatule pisut alla ($7.16 miljardit vs $7.31 miljardit).Ettevõte nentis, et majandusolukord on keeruline nii sel kui ka järgneval aastal ning sellest tulenevalt on ka tarbijad kulutuste ja kaarditehingute tegemisel ettevaatlikumad. "While we continued to generate a substantial level of earnings this quarter, bottom line results were down from a year ago as growth in Cardmember spending slowed, lending volumes moderated, and we set aside significant additions to our loan loss reserves..." Samuti seati tulevikku vaadates kõrvale suuremaid reserve kahjumite katmiseks. Üle 90 päeva välja antud laenud võrreldes 2. kvartaliga tõusid, kuid mitte väga palju - nimelt 0.2% jagu.
AXP kinnitas, et saab omadega tänases keerulises finantskeskkonnas väga hästi hakkama. "Our business model is well positioned to generate earnings and excess capital even in an economic environment that is likely to be among the weakest in many years. Co has contingency programs in place that would allow them navigate through this environment for at least 12 months even under extreme market conditions."
Investorid on viimaste nädalate allamüügiga valmistunud hullemaks ning eileõhtused numbrid peaks hirme vähendama. Järelturul tõusis AXP tulemuste peale ca 6%. Aktsia kaupleb täna allpool 10x ettevaatavat kasumit.
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On see logish või mingi anomaalia?? +50%..
Swedbank A
Previous close Last +/- % Low High Volume Time My list
73.25 110.00 36.75 50.17 91.69 135.25 1918460 2008-10-21 08:35:51 -
Investors are pumping a record amount of cash into money market funds as they rush to the safest instruments amid the market turmoil.
In spite of co-ordinated central bank action to inject liquidity into the markets and sweeping measures from governments to shore up the beleaguered banking sector, investors are still shunning riskier investments.
Money market funds, which are considered safe because they tend to buy US Treasuries, absorbed $44.4bn last week, the largest inflow since 2001, according to fund tracker EPFR Global.
ja tundub, et USA CP turg hakkab vaikselt jalgu alla saama: Volume Statistics for Commercial Paper Issuance -
Panen siia taaskord ühe intervjuu Faberiga. Loodame, et seekord saavad kõik lingi lahti. Pikkust 25 minutit, kus pikaajaline pessimist Faber ütleb, et lühemas perspektiivis võivad aktsiad rallida, kuid põhjast oleme veel aastate kaugusel...
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Hito - Konkreetset vastust on raske ütelda. Tegemist on määratud vastaspooltega tehingutega. Miks sellise hinnaga, pole täpselt teada. Numbrid ei valeta ning SWEDA tänane tipp on 135.25 aga seda enne regulaarset kauplemisaega. Paljude Rootsi aktsiatega ning üsna sageli näeb eelturul selliseid tehinguid. Mistõttu pole tegemist erandiga.
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3 kuu LIBOR on viimastel päevadel jätkanud tagasitõmbamist. Raha süstimine finantssüsteemi keskpankade poolt on tulemust kandmas.
 võetuna 20. oktoober 2008.PNG)
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Seda Faberi videot, millele ülevalpool lingi panin, soovitan küll kuulata. Väga tugevate väidetega ja hea argumenteerimisvõimega investeerimisekspert. Mõjub optimistlikele meeleoludele kainestavalt.
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J. Hussman on kirjutanud kriitilise loo LHV ettevõtete analüüsi põhialustest. Mõjub pessimistlikele meeleoludele kainestavalt.
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firefox-ga ei avanenud faberi video. ie-ga töötab ilusti
firefox-ga saab vaadata lingilt: http://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vd0Dq_d8mCjA.asf (video avaneb täisaknas) -
Morgan Stanley on vähendamas Lamar Adevertisingu (LAMR) kasumiprognoose (2009. aasta EPS $0.47 -> -$0.11) ning hinnasihti langetatakse $30-ni (eelmine $48).Kuna aktsia kaupleb $18 juures, jäädakse siiski "overweight" soovituse juurde.
Viidatakse halvenevale makrokeskkonnale ning reklaamituru aeglustumisele (eriti autokaupmeeste ning jaemüüjate seas). Samas on tegemist tavapärase tsükliga, millest tugevad ettevõtted väljuvad veel tugevamana. Lamari EBITDA kasvu nähakse aastatel 2010-2015 kahekohalisena, mis muudab aktsia praeguste tasemete juures atraktiivseks pikaajaliseks investeerimisvõimaluseks.
Tegemist on hilinenud reageeringuga nii majanduse seisule kui ka aktsia liikumisele. Analüüsis kirjutati sellest, mida turg juba teadis ning tõenäoliselt nopitakse MSi notest välja hoopis positiivne alatoon soodsa hinnataseme kohta. Peale seda, kui Pro all lühikese idee sulgesime, on LAMR edasi langenud, kuid tänaseks on jõutud kohta, kus ootaks pigem põrget.
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Mnjah - autotootjate, kinnisvaramüüjate ja makrokeskkonna probleemidest rääkimine ja selle mõju LAMRile on täna sama hiljaks jäänud, kui mis oleks üritada veeklaasiga lahtiläinud kulutuld kustutada. Kui tuli veel tiku otsas, oleks klaasitäis vett õiges kohas olnud...
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Eelmine nädal oli juttu Canroyde huvitavatest valutatsioonidest. Eilsest väljas HTE osakute tagasiostu programmi teade.
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CALGARY, ALBERTA--(MARKET WIRE)--Oct 20, 2008 -- Harvest Energy Trust ("Harvest" or the "Trust") (Toronto:HTE-UN.TO - News) (HTE - News) announced today that the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") has accepted Harvest's Notice of Intention to commence a Normal Course Issuer Bid (the "Bid") to purchase for cancellation, from time to time, as Harvest considers advisable, up to a maximum of: - 14,826,261 Trust Units, -
Dish (DISH) on DirecTV järel suuruselt teine satelliit-televisiooni pakkuja, kes 29. septembril kaotas AT&T näol oma viimase telekomipartneri. Aktsia on sealt alates langenud, kuigi viimastel päevadel on põhjadest kõrgemale liigutud.
Täna alustab BofA aktsia katmist hinnasihiga $25:
Banc of America Sec initiates DISH with a Buy and price target of $25 saying DISH's stock is trading just off its 52-week and 5-year lows due to deterioration in subscriber metrics over the past year, loss of the AT&T distribution relationship, unresolved patent litigation with Tivo, and lack of clarity on future investment in DISH's 700 MHz spectrum. They believe this has created a buying opportunity at a time when the story is unlikely to get any worse and will most likely begin to stabilize and improve.
Kuna analüütikud on ettevõtte suhtes pigem negatiivsed või neutraalsed, võib tänane note märgatavat ostuhuvi tekitada.
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Citigroup restarted with a Sell at Goldman- added to Conviction Sell list
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USAs on kütusehinnad sarnaselt Eestiga läinud maailmaturul toimuva nafta hinna kukkumisega vabalangusesse. Mootorkütuse hinnad on kolme kuuga langenud üle 30%. Tarbija rõõmustab.
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DB on enne homseid tulemusi soovitamas Amazoni (AMZN) aktsiaid, samal ajal langetatakse tarbijakulutuste nõrkuse ning tugevnenud dollari tõttu prognoose. Hinnasihti kärbitakse $110-lt $75-ni, kuid arvestades aktsia 35% suurust korrektsiooni alates augusti lõpust, on turg halvad uudised juba sisse diskonteerinud.
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Fed sets up new program to buy money market fund CP, Deposits - Bloomberg
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Tulemuste tabel täna hommikuste tähtsamate raporteerijatega uuendatud.
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Kui Caterpillar (CAT) poleks enne tulemusi nii palju kukkunud, kaubeldaks praegu päris suures miinuses. Tulemustes helget kohta ei paistnudki ning tõenäoliselt langeb aktsia siit veel edasi.
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USA on päeva alustamas korralikus miinuses. S&P500 -2.3% ja Nasdaq -2.5%.
Saksamaa DAX -1.33%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.37%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.10%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.36%
Venemaa MICEX +3.70%
Poola WIG +1.41%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +3.34%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.84%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.79%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.34%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.60%
Tai Set 50 +0.50%
India Sensex 30 +4.50%
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Look for Consolidation
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/21/2008 6:52 AM EDT
All great deeds and all great thoughts have a ridiculous beginning.
-- Albert Camus
If you were going to write a script for the way the market reached a tradable low, it would start with a long downtrend, be followed by a very big, sharp drop and then we'd see a period of high volatility. Eventually things would calm down, and after a period of stability, a tentative rally would start that would slowly feed on itself.
That would be the textbook picture of a good market low. Of course, such things are only obvious in retrospect. Nothing seems certain as the events actually play out. It will feel like more downside will come and we will continue to have grave doubts about the market as the process slowly takes place.
Unfortunately, the inclination of many market players is to excitedly declare over and over again that the bottom is here. We've seen them do this numerous times this year already, and of course they will do it again, because they just can't help themselves. The problem is that any bottom is a process, and once it starts it doesn't mean it will be completed. We can't rush the process; we have to wait and see if it develops as it should.
So far we have been progressing nicely. We have had the crash and extreme level of volatility, but now we need to see things calm down and support levels build. It will be helpful if we have a few more drops and pullbacks to keep the bottom-callers from becoming overanxious, but this is productive action lately and holds promise.
The fact that this process is taking place as we approach the seasonally strongest period of the year is helpful, and with earnings season upon us we should get a good idea of how much bad news is already priced into this market. The bears' best argument at this point is that all the bad news is not already priced in. They will tell us that while the debt problems have been addressed, we still haven't fully discounted further economic slowing and more unemployment that are very likely to occur. The only way we'll really know if those things are priced in is to see how the market acts as it digests new data. If we hold on bad news then we'll know that the market is looking beyond the next trough.
For now we have to continue to watch for charts that are setting up. The huge recent swings have been a great daytrading market, but they have not allowed longer-term patterns to form yet. We are still moving on macro concerns and individual stock picking has not mattered. If volatility continues to slow, that will change and we can once again start to build positions of stocks with good charts.
We have a little softness this morning following a poor report from Texas Instruments (TXN) and a pullback in oil prices after a rally yesterday. Some further consolidation is exactly what we need at this point.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GBL +15.0%, JDAS +9.1%, COH +7.4%, AXP +6.8%, MMM +4.5%, PFE +4.3%, FRX +4.1%, PTV +3.7% (light volume), BIIB +2.3%, CAT +1.5%... Other news: TMA +16.3% (still checking for anything specific), LINE +12.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), LGF +8.0% (Carl Icahn discloses 9.17% stake in 13D filing; had discussions with the CEO and Vice Chairman), MGM +4.8% (Tracinda to focus on Gaming & Hospitality and Oil & Gas industries), HK +3.9% (provides Q3 operational update; Haynesville Shale activities move forward), MA +1.9% (up in sympathy with AXP), BDX +1.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LOGI -17.6%, CE -13.7%, JAVA -13.5%, FITB -11.0%, TLAB -11.0%, WU -10.7% (light volume), MICC -10.3%, TXN -9.3% (also downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), ALV -8.7%, PUK -5.7%, SNDK -2.9%... M&A news: ACGY -4.1% (announces co held discussions with Subsea 7 in relation to a possible merger; the discussions have now been terminated)... Select oil/gas related names showing weakness with lower spot prices: SSL -12.4%, BP -7.0%, TOT -6.2%, RDS.A -4.6%, XOM -2.9%, CVX -2.3%... Select drybulk shippers trading lower as Baltic index drops 4.6%: NM -7.9% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA), DRYS -5.1%, TBSI -4.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Banc of America)... Select metals/mining names showing weakness with lower spot prices: BBL -8.4%, RIO -8.0%, MT -7.8%, AUY -6.1%, BHP -5.1%, GFI -5.1%, RTP -4.7%, AU -4.6%, GLD -3.5%, GOLD -2.7%... Other news: WPPGY -9.6% (still checking for anything specific), ABK -7.1% (Bond insurers seek to tap into $700 bln plan - FT), SAP -6.2% (Oracle told by judge to offer to settle with SAP - Reuters), HBC -4.6% (still checking), ING -3.6% (pulling back from yesterday's 15%+ move), F -3.4% (Tracinda to reduce F holdings, will Focus on Gaming & Hospitality and Oil & Gas Industries), AZN -2.9% (still checking)... Select tech related names trading lower following TXN results: IFX -8.9%, ERIC -8.6%, STM -7.4%, ALU -6.8%, NOK -4.3%... Analyst comments: C -4.2% (restarted with a Sell at Goldman- added to Conviction Sell list- Bloomberg), NRG -2.6% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), DUK -2.3% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), EXC -1.3% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies). -
Turg tundub bouncy, ilmselt käivad indeksid nullis ära. Eks siis ole edasi näha, kas reaalselt ka tugevust jätkub.
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Minu ajalooline tabel Caterpillari müügitulude kohta:
Q2 07 kasvud Masinad (64% müügitulust) Mootorid (29% müügitulust) Põhja-Ameerika -14% -8% EAME +35% +27% Ladina-Ameerika +23% +12% Aaasia/Vaikne-Ookean +23% +18% Q3 07 kasvud Masinad (62% müügitulust) Mootorid (31% müügitulust) Põhja-Ameerika -12% -16% EAME +43% +26% Ladina-Ameerika +23% +6% Aasia/Vaikne-Ookean +35% +26% Q4 07 kasvud Masinad (66% müügitulust) Mootorid (28% müügitulust) Põhja-Ameerika -7% -23% EAME +32% +36% Ladina-Ameerika +29% -8% Aasia/Vaikne-Ookean +40% +31% Q1 08 kasvud Masinad (64% müügitulust) Mootorid (29% müügitulust) Põhja-Ameerika +3% +3% EAME +27% +33% Ladina-Ameerika +18% +33% Aasia/Vaikne-Ookean +35% +40% Q2 08 kasvud Masinad (63% müügitulust) Mootorid (31% müügitulust) Põhja-Ameerika +8% +9% EAME +15% +34% Ladina-Ameerika +23% +42% Aasia/Vaikne-Ookean +50% +57% Q3 08 kasvud Masinad (62% müügitulust) Mootorid (32% müügitulust) Põhja-Ameerika +3% +7% EAME +5% +19% Ladina-Ameerika +44% +25% Aasia/Vaikne-Ookean +37% +22% *EAME = Euroopa, Aafrika ja Lähis-Ida
Et tulemused oleksid võinud ju ka hullemad olla. Täna suudeti siiski jätkuvalt näidata kasvu, kuigi kasvunumbrid on vaieldamatult madalamale tulnud. Pigem on analüütikud skeptilised tuleviku prognoositava kasvu saavutamise osas.
Mõned tähtsamad fraasid ettevõtte aruandest:*"Most developed economies were weak, with several entering into recession."
*"In North America, sales volume declined in response to weak U.S construction and quarrying. Higher coal and crude oil prices benefited coal mining and oil sands development" (energiahindae langusega 4. kvartalil võib see tugevus CATi jaoks muidugi kaduda).
*"Sales volume in Europe declined sharply from a year earlier as economies in the euro-zone and the United Kingdom were very weak. Both residential and nonresidential construction declined. Some economies within the euro-zone were in recession."
* "The sales increase in Africa/Middle East occurred largely in the oil producing countries. Oil production increased almost 5 percent from a year earlier, and prices were up more than 70 percent. Higher oil revenues enabled countries to spend more on construction and increase the drill rig count by 3 percent" (Kui aga nafta hinna langust pidama ei saada, lõpetatakse uute investeeringute tegemine puurtornidesse ära).
* "Sales volume increased substantially in China, the result of the introduction of locally produced wheel loaders this year and growth in both construction and mining. Spending increased 33 percent for housing construction and 18 percent for commercial construction. Coal production was up 14 percent, and iron ore production rose 3 percent." (Positiivsed kommentaarid CATi poolt Hiina tugevusele).*"Sales for petroleum applications in Latin America increased 44 percent driven by strong demand for on-site power generation to support oil production across the region and to support drilling in Venezuela. Turbines and turbine-related services increased for oil and gas production applications in Mexico." Ning "Sales for petroleum applications in Asia/Pacific increased 11 percent in support of Chinese drill rig builders that continue to manufacture at record levels and to support increased demand from Asian shipyards in support of offshore drilling. Sales of turbine-related services increased but were offset by a decline in shipments of turbines for oil and gas production projects due to timing of customer project schedules" (Seega nafta hinna langusega võib lühemas perspektiivis nõudlus Caterpillari mootorsegmendi toodete järele langeda).
Ning ka prognoos tuleviku kohta - flat op line, ei ole midagi väga hirmutavat:
-- Caterpillar is maintaining its full-year outlook for 2008. The company expects sales and revenues to top $50 billion, up from $44.958 billion in 2007, and profit per share of about $6.00 per share, up from $5.37 per share in 2007.
-- Our preliminary outlook for 2009 reflects sales and revenues at about the same level as 2008.
-- We will provide an outlook for 2009 profit per share in January 2009.Küsimusi võib vaid tekitada see, kas Caterpillari prognoos maailma SKP kasvu kohta ei ole ehk liiga optimistlik. Kuid Caterpillar on niivõrd suur ettevõte, et seda võib juba iseenesest 'maailma majanduseks' kutsuda, kuna ollakse kursis majandustega üle maailma. Tore teada, et erinevalt paljudest analüütikutest on vähemalt ettevõte ise turust optimistlikum:
-- Overall, we expect world economic growth will slow from 3.8 percent in 2007 to 2.8 percent in 2008. Our preliminary projection for 2009 is for less than 2.5 percent growth, the slowest since 2002.
-- North American economies should grow a little less than 1.5 percent in 2008 and less than 1 percent in 2009.
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Lamar (LAMR) on päris huvitav, vastu turgu korralikus plussis. Kui ka turg millalgi üles ostetakse, võib aktsia loetud päevade jooksul ka $22 juures kaubelda.
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DIG hakkab üsna huvitavaks muutuma, ootan sobivat sisenemiskohta.
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üles või alla?
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üles jah?
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Näeks liikumist üles vähemalt $34.70 tasemele.
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Ise hetkel veel sisenenud ei ole ja paistab, et jään rongist maha aga eks neid võimalusi tuleb küllaga veel.
$33.90->$34.50 oli plaanis, kuid plaaniks jäigi:) -
uus võimalus
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Ootaks sisenemist võimalusel alla $33.90-ne.
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Ja paistab, et turg pakub võimalust tunduvalt madalamalt siseneda, seega hetkel passin kõrvalt.
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Joel, mis mootoreid (Q3 2008 32% müügitulust) CAT toodab ja müüb?
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Võtsin positsiooni lõpuks sisse $33.40 pealt, kuid sai veidi vara võetud.
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Kus stop on?
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Stopi pole, kuna liikumised on väga intensiivsed, kuid kui XOM,CVX peaksid uusi põhju tegema ja nafta täitsa ära kukkuma siis väljas. Siht $34.50.
Käibed on täna samuti turgudel kesised, siiani viimaste päevade madalaimad. -
Ning kuidas meid wikipedia informeerib...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Japan
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The economy of Japan is the second largest economy in the world,[1] after the United States, at around US$4.5 trillion in terms of nominal GDP[1] and third after the United States and China when adjusted for purchasing power parity.[2] The workers of Japan rank 18th in the world in GDP per hour worked as of 2006.[3]
Japan's economy is highly efficient and competitive in areas linked to international trade and 30% below U.S. productivity in service sector, overall ranking approximately 18th of 111 countries. Japan has well-educated work force, high savings and investment rates. Japan is a overwhelmingly private enterprise economy.
AND ALSO PARIS HILTON IS BEST FRIENDS WITH AMANDA AND MEREDITH!
For three decades, Japan's overall real economic growth had been spectacular: a 10% average in the 1960s, a 5% average in the 1970s, and a 4% average in the 1980s.[4]
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Turg ei saa tuge ja käitub väga nõrgana, kui minnakse põhju testima siis ka nendest läbi, seega panen stopi $32.94 pealel.
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http://www.wulffmorgenthaler.com/
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Yahoo: Google CEO Schmidt says agreed to extend discussions with Justice Dept over Yahoo deal - Reuters
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Sai veidi vara DIG-i sisenetud $33.40, kuid 1.1 punkti laualt korjatud ja DIG-ist väljas.
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ma ootan veel
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Sõltub mis strateegia oli positsiooni võtmisel ja mis olid sihid, mängu ajal reegleid ei muudeta.
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ymeramees jõudis kenasti ette. See peaks OunaAntsu küsimusele küll vastama.
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AlariÜ, kas see peaks tähendama, et kui kõnelused kuhugi viima hakkavad, siis tõuseb YHOO kõrgustesse?
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Kas keegi oskab kommenteerida mis toimus Hansapangas täna. Kõik haldurid olevat lahti lastud.
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Kui ülevõtupakkumise hinnaks kujuneb kõrgem hind, kui hetkel turul, siis kindlasti. GOOG, MSFT tänaste avalduste järgi mõlemad veel mängus. Eks ta lõpuks kellegi poolt ka üle võetakse, küsimus hinnas.
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Megas, mis halduritest jutt käib?
Neid on seal igasuguseid....
