Börsipäev 3. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
-
Tere taas.
Ameeriklased on siis sel pühapäeval ka ise saanud hakkama kella keeramisega ning nüüd on kauplemine toimumas taas regulaarsel ajal ehk 16.30st kuni 23.00ni. -
Millist inflatsioonimäära oodata 2009. aastalt? Capital Economicsi vastus: "It is increasingly likely that headline inflation will turn negative in many major economies at some point in the coming year."
-
Täna juba kolmas!
-
Joel elab mälestustes. :)))
-
LHV ajast 2 aastat ees, seal 1. nov. esmaspäev :)
-
Ärge röövige mult neid kahte päeva : )
-
Ajalooliselt on november (ja ka detsember) olnud aktsiaturu jaoks võrdlemisi positiivne kuu. Saame näha, kuidas läheb seekord. Positiivne on see, et LIBOR (olen vahepeal ikka ka neid graafikuid siia postitanud) jätkab oma langemist, viidates krediiditurgude edasisele lahtisulamisele. S&P500 futuurid on hommikul poole protsendi jagu plusspoolel.
Kõikidele LHV Börsihaist osavõtjatele - head mänguõnne ja osavust! -
Kuigi Cramer ajab päris tihti suust välja jaburusi, siis seekord ütleb järgmist:
"The dips can now be bought. That's what the true takeaway of this rally has been. It doesn't mean we can rocket up from here, although I suspect there will be an assault -- a failed assault -- on Dow 10,000. It does mean that the chaos has been straightened out and the breath has been caught. And even though business is just awful, many stocks reflect awful. " -
Aga tõotab taaskord üks sündmusterohke nädal olla. USA ja kogu maailma poolt saavad väga suurt meedia tähelepanu kindlasti homsed 4. novembri presidendivalimised ning neljapäeval, 6. novembril astub areenile Euroopa Keskpank, kellelt oodatakse intressimäärade langetamise jätkamist (turgude jaoks kindlasti oluline ka sõnastus, et ollakse valmis edasi langetama).
-
Aasias oli täna päris lennukas päev:
Saksamaa DAX +0.25%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.39%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.33%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.26%
Venemaa MICEX N/A (börs suletud)
Poola WIG -0.23%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud)
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.69%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.52%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.36%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +5.69%
Tai Set 50 +9.33%
India Sensex 30 +5.62%
-
Is 1987 the Pattern?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/3/2008 8:38 AM EST
The only normal people are the ones you don't know very well.
-- Joe Ancis
There really is no such thing as "normal" behavior in the stock market. No matter what the conditions might be, there are always pockets of peculiarities and unexpected behavior. That is the nature of the stock market beast -- we have to learn to adapt to it to be successful.
Recently the always-eccentric behavior of the market has reached extreme levels. We had some of the worst action since the 1930s, a huge bounce and wild and unpredictable trading every day in the last hour. We are faced with unprecedented economic issues, and many investors are reeling from losses of 30% or more so far this year.
Even when the market is going up, as it did last week, this abnormal action is keeping many market players on the sidelines. When a market can shift moods as fast as this one, there just is no reason to be very trusting. It isn't enough to hear from all the pundits in the media that the worst is over and it's time to buy. We need some calm and logical action to prove to us that maybe we have seen an extreme overreaction to the downside that has purged us of some poison.
There are two key themes that I am focusing on right now. First is the similarity to technical patterns that played out following the 1987 crash. Second (and related) is a slowing in volatility.
At this point the index charts are looking very similar to what happened in 1987. We had the "crash," a big bounce, another pullback and then another bounce. There was a high level of volatility following the crash, and we had a couple of days with intraday swing of nearly 10%, just like we have seen lately.
The key was that after this period of volatility, things finally calmed down. We drifted back down and retested the lows a little over a month later in early December, but we stayed within a trading range. Out of this eventually emerged a very nice uptrending market in 1988.
I'm not suggesting that the same thing will happen now, but if we do finally see the volatility slowing and some small trading ranges developing, it will help a lot in enticing some money back into this market. The important thing is to not get overly optimistic. Watch for this basing action and calming behavior to develop. If it does, the bullish technical patterns will follow.
With the election tomorrow, things are likely to stay nervous and unsettled, although an Obama victory now seems to be well anticipated. The more important political factor right now is whether the Democrats will reach the magic 60 number in the Senate and whether talk of a "mandate" takes hold. Obviously things can change, but the market tends to anticipate and it has probably already decided on who it thinks will win.
We have a very mild start this morning. There isn't much news on the wires. Could we actually have a quiet day for once?
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SOL +19.4%, DRYS +17.0%, OSK +11.0%, GT +9.9% (light volume), DAC +2.9%, STO +2.5%, PMI +2.4%... M&A news: UBB +15.7% and ITU +9.8% (Itau, Unibanco announce merger - DJ)... Select drybulk shipping names trading higher following DRYS and DAC results: TBSI +11.0%, EXM +8.8%, DSX +8.2%, FRO +5.7%, GNK +3.1%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: BHP +4.4%, GOLD +4.2%, BBL +4.0%, SLV +3.9%, SLW +3.6%, AEM +1.8%, GLD +1.4%... Other news: VMED +30.2% (lenders vote to allow delay of GBP1.66 bln loan repayments - WSJ), HIG +8.9% (comments on capital position; says capital margin would be approx $2 bln at year end), LVS +7.1% (still checking), DPTR +6.2% (Board of Directors to review Tracinda Corporation offer and provide recommendation), NOK +4.2% (still checking for anything specific), MRO +4.0% and BWP +3.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), AIG +3.7% (still checking), BIDU +2.4% (announces $200 mln share repurchase program), MON +1.7% (to invest in technologies for sugarcane with acquisitions of CanaVialis and Alellyx)... Analyst comments: TE +4.0% (upgraded to Buy at KeyBanc Capital Mkts), BIIB +3.4% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), TSO +2.4% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), WMT +1.5% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan).
Allapoole avanevad:
Select oil/gas names showing weakness with crude lower: BP -3.4%, RDS.A -2.8%, TOT -2.5%... Select financial stocks trading lower: AEG -5.6%, NCC -5.6%, UBS -5.3%, STD -4.7%, CS -3.1%, LYG -2.8% (Lloyds TSB could face rival bid for HBOS: Newspaper - Reuters), BAC -1.1%... Other news: VSE -60.4% (preparing to file for bankruptcy protection - WSJ), ATRC -26.5% (announces investigation by the Department of Justice; also downgraded to Hold at Roth), VOD -6.9% (still checking for anything specific), CEG -1.3% (provides update on liquidity and strategic initiatives)... Analyst comments: FDRY -3.7% (downgraded to Hold at Kaufman), PTEN -3.5% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), IP -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), BA -2.1% (added to Conviction Sell List at Goldman - DJ), CIEN -1.9% (downgraded to Underweight at Merrill). -
bkc ka ilusti rohelises
-
BKC tõusu taga täna Wachovia upgrade Market Performi pealt Outperformi peale.
-
September Construction Spending m/m -0.3% vs -0.8% consensus, prior revised to +0.3% from 0.0%
October ISM Manufacturing 38.9 vs 41.0 consensus, prior 43.5
ISM figure the lowest since report began in 1998 -
Shortisin CLF-i $30.90, kuna tõus liiga tormiline ja ootan liikumist alla $30 taseme. Proovin korjata punkti, kuid juhul kui tekib suurem ostukäive, siis kohe väljas.
-
No Börsimäng on küll pettumus... Lühikeseks müüki EI OLE, stop-loss orderi võimalust EI OLE ja hinnad on ei tea millise tähtede seisu järgi tuleviku ennustamine! Ja suht "kuratlik" tundub ka LHV poolne selgitus "Et pooled osavõtjad ju ei tea, mida lühikeseks müük üldse tähendab"... sry kui midagi mööda panin!
-
CLF-ist 30.50 väljas, 0,4 punkti laualt ära, ei tundnud ennast eriti hästi selles positsioonis.
-
Tundub viimastel päevadel, et järsku ongi nüüd asi paranemas. Mida arvate teie?
Põhjused miks ma nii arvata julgen:
1.- Esimesed positiivsed uudised ettevõtetelt
2.- Praeguseks peaks riikide abipakid juba tööle hakkama
3.- Ajalooliselt halvad kuud möödas
4.- Enam ei ole näha -10 ja +10 päevasid
Järsku oskate lisada midagi või ümberlükata. -
V.t. foorum Börsiralli 2009 graafik p.13. Aga see on küll mu isiklik arvamus.
-
NLFPS,
Puhtakoelist lühikeseksmüüki tõepoolest ei ole võimalik börsihai raames teha. Kuid börsilkaubeldavate ultrashort fondide (näiteks TWM, QID jpt) ostmise läbi on võimalik panustada suuremate turuindeksite langusele. -
aga DIG ja DUG?
-
DIG ja DUG on samuti börsihai mängus kaubeldavate instrumentide nimekirjas.
-
Ise küll ei julgeks veel pikaks minna ,ootaks ära järgmised majandus tulemused,Trend on ikka veel päris tugev alla.Enda tähelepanek on see ,et langus on toimunud seni ilma majandustulemuste olulise languseta. 2000 aastal kui hakkas pihta pikaajaline langus jaanuaris ,tulid ettevõtted välja päris koledate tulemustega.Tasuks ostma hakata alles siis kui ema 200 joon on ületanud ema 50 joone.Selle põhjal võiks ostma hakata lennundust .Seni tasuks kindlasti oodata järgmiste tulemusteni ja jälgida aktsiate liikumist nende peale
-
kui peale indeksite suuri sikk-sakke tulevad väiksemad ja kõrgemal tasemel, võib see vabalt põhja tähistada
-
Aga stopid? Igamehe päästerõngas?
-
NLFPS... mis sa 100.- veel tahad??????
-
Aktsiaturgude käive täna päris õhuke. Ilmselt ollakse enne homseid valimisi lihtsalt äraootaval seisukohal...
-
Dow Jones tööstuskeskmise tavapärasest päevasisesest 600 punktisest liikumisest on täna liigutud 150 punkti vahemikus, lausa harjumatu:D
-
Homme president !!! Sel korral võiks ju ilge paugu panna !!! Aga no mis sa teed, kui jälle võeti maha munad, pandi alasile ja söödeti karudele sisse! öäk :( st. hey to gey)
-
Seda ma arvasin, et see AAPL sealt alla kukub, aga stoppi ju panna ei saa.
